Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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101
FXUS64 KMAF 282225
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show widespread convection across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, firing off multiple
boundaries, including one approaching KMAF from the south. Models
suggest this could carry one well into the overnight hours, and
we`ll update termianls as needed. Otherwise, forecast soundings
suggest widespread stratus developing overnight, w/LIFR cigs
possible KMAF/KCNM/KHOB near 12Z or so. MVFR conditions should
prevail further S and W. Cigs look slow to scatter out Monday
afternoon, if at all.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Started the day stuck between an upper low over the 4 corners
region and one on the TX coast with the sub tropical ridge
extending in from VA. The 4 corners low will get pulled NE while
the gulf low meanders down the coast before weakening. By mid week
the upper ridge will become more established over the Central
Plains with the next upper trough swinging over the NW late in the
week.

A surface ridge will build south Monday pushing a weak boundary
through the area with the wind becoming east to northeast.  As far
as temps not expecting much change in overnight readings.  With
plentiful clouds and rain/outflows will keep temps below normal
through midweek.

Currently in a wet pattern... still looking good for heavy rain
potential in SE NM but timing may be a little later... not just
tonight but may carry well into Monday.  May start first in Lea Co
with precip moving down into/developing over Eddy later.  The
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for tonight does have a slight risk over
SE NM down to Alpine.  Have considered a Flash Flood Watch for
tonight and possibly tomorrow mainly for SE NM but after
coordinating with ABQ and LUB have decided to wait for the time
being.  This afternoon have storms firing over the Davis Mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and along the Eastern Permian Basin.  Rain chances
continue in the forecast through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  69  86 /  30  40  40  40
Carlsbad                       68  80  67  80 /  60  60  60  60
Dryden                         72  89  72  88 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  67  83  66  83 /  40  50  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 62  72  61  72 /  50  60  60  60
Hobbs                          64  80  64  80 /  60  60  60  50
Marfa                          60  77  61  76 /  50  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  84  68  85 /  40  50  50  40
Odessa                         70  85  67  85 /  40  50  50  40
Wink                           70  86  69  85 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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