Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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053
FXUS64 KMAF 300514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Sat May 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Strong line of thunderstorms will move south through KMAF @ 30/06Z
with strong winds and perhaps hail with it. The only other
terminal that may be affected could be KINK, so will include there
too. After the line passes, expect MVFR ceilings will affect most
terminals late tonight and Saturday morning as a cold front moves
into the area. Low ceilings may last into the early afternoon
before lifting.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Have done a quick update for SVR T-Storm Watch # 242, and to
update other parameters as necessary based on current conditions
and latest models. 00Z KMAF RAOB came in w/large hail/damaging
winds written all over it...especially steep mid-lvl LR`s and dry
PBL layer.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the central plains states moves off to the east
this afternoon.  By Saturday an upper ridge will begin to build across
the Western U.S. as the procession of upper troughs comes to an
end.  This will result in decreasing rain chances for the region
as May comes to an end.  This looks to be a significant change in
the wet pattern of the past month... MAF has recorded 12 days with
measurable rain so far this month with more rain expected tonight.
This ridge will slowly shift east with temperatures increasing across
the area into next week.

This afternoon... tonight... and tomorrow looks to be the last good
chance of rain in W TX and SE NM for the foreseeable future.  May see
some afternoon storms due to good moisture and daytime heating...
and a little bit of a dryline across Brewster county.  Good low
level moisture still extends back across the Trans Pecos and SE NM.
Rain chances increase tonight.  A weak cold front is expected to sag
down into the area overnight... storms look to develop along and
behind the front spreading south tonight.  The heaviest rain should
be after midnight.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect tonight
and Saturday morning for the Northern and Eastern Permian Basin.
Some of the model qpf shows heavy rain moving down across Gaines and
Martin counties... others not as much.  Have decided to expand the
watch a little westward across these counties.  For now have not
including Ector or Midland counties in the FFA but this could change
if conditions warrant.

Also have to consider the threat of severe storms this afternoon and
tonight.  Most of CWA north of the Pecos River is included in the
Day 1 slight risk.  A shortwave may combine with decent low level
moisture... good CAPE and shear to result in severe storms.  Storms
may begin with a hail threat then transition to strong wind and
heavy rain overnight.  However believe threat of heavy rain greater
than threat of severe wx.

With less rain and clouds around... will have more sunshine.  This
will result in warmer temperatures.  Highs in the 90s return to the
area early next week and continue through the end of the week.  In
the extended the forecast drys out with rain becoming much more
spotty.  A persistent surface trough hangs around the region most of
next week.  This trough and the higher elevations may be enough to
fire off a few storms but coverage will be low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Dawson...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...
     Martin...Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry.


&&

$$

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