Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 292314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
514 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

See 00Z aviation discussion below.


MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is expected through much of the TAF period.
Current CIGs near BKN010 will lower to BKN002-005 by 12Z. There is
a chance for patchy dense fog to form but not confident enough to
put in the TAF. VFR conditions will arrive near 30/18Z with a
northwest wind shift.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015/


Area radars show rainfall has finally cleared the lwr Trans Pecos,
whereas WV imagery showdrier air intruding into West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico as the upper trough begins migrating to the
upper Midwest.  At the sfc, winds have gone light/variable, and
temps have climbed abv freezing everywhere.  However, the same
problem exists today as yesterday, namely that the models are too
optimistic on warming things up, and too wide on diurnal temp
spreads, w/MOS even more so.  Persistence rules, e.g., staying
toward the colder side of guidance, w/a narrower spread between mins
and maxes.  Temps overnight will be largely dependent
onwheretheyendup this afternoon.  W/antecedent high soil moisture in
place, can`t rule out a little fog developing overnight. However,
overcast skies should mitigate this somewhat.

Temps should finally begin to climb Monday as increased westerly
flow finally dislodges theovercast/ams, but a weak Pac front will
keep temps in check and below normal.  Models continue to keep temps
blo normal in the 50s under NW flow aloft, bringing a dry upper
trough thru the area Wednesday.  This will be followed by weak
ridging, w/temps peaking near normal Friday afternoon.  Over the
weekend, models develop an upper cut-off low and move it to the
north of the region, possibly setting off some -SHRA over the NE
Saturday night/Sunday.  However, if the track pans out, the likely
result will be a windy weekend.





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