Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 272307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will diminish shortly and remain light overnight, increasing
and becoming very windy around 18Z Tuesday. VFR conditions are
expected though VIS will drop some due to BLDU and could go as low
as 3-5SM after 18Z when winds increase.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough moving thru central CA, which has
oriented zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
to SW.  Afternoon mixing has resulted in high winds in the
Guadalupes, and breezy conditions elsewhere.  Downslope warming and
mostly clear skies have allowed afternoon temps to into the 70s most
locations, and even the lwr 80s SE.  Red Flag conditions were noted
from Tatum south to Marfa.

All that said, Tuesday is still shaping up to be even warmer and
windier than today, with widespread critical fire wx conditions
expected throughout all of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico (See
Fire Wx Discussion below for more details).  Models are very
consistent on bringing the trough thru the region 00-06Z Wednesday.
Ahead of this feature, models still advertise good mixing Tuesday
afternoon.  Forecast NAM soundings mix to around H7, where 40-50kt
southwesterlies are forecast, and the GFS above H6(!), where 60-70kt
southwesterlies are forecast.  Again, the only variable in the air
Tuesday will be cloud cover, which may temper winds somewhat.
However, forecast soundings take this cloud cover into account and
still mix as deep as they do.  In addition, the NAM continues to
portray a strong mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes, and model
H7 height gradients still tighten up to over 60m/150nm.  To top all
this off, all MOS numbers support a significant wind event Tuesday
afternoon.  For these reasons, we`ve decided to upgrade all wind
watches to warnings/advisories.  We`ve also inserted BLDU into the
grids, as soils are dry.  Although the trough doesn`t actually move
thru the CWA until Tuesday evening, decoupling after sunset should
diminish winds fairly quickly.

Unfortunately, warm wx comes to an end Wednesday as a strong cold
front plows into the area.  Buffer soundings bring fropa thru KMAF
around 14Z Wed, w/temps plunging to well-below normal Tuesday
afternoon.  There they will stay thru Friday under zonal flow aloft,
before thicknesses increase under faint ridging over the weekend and
temps climb back to above-normal. Grids remain dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

As southwesterly winds have increased over the region today,
critical fire weather conditions have developed across the Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor where a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect through early this evening. Stronger winds
have also expanded further eastward than previously expected, thus
have expanded the Red Flag Warning this afternoon to include the
Trans Pecos and central/western Permian Basin where RHs are already
in the low teens. As winds are expected to diminish after sunset
this evening, expect quick improvement in conditions, though
recovery will only be fair for most of the area, and poor for
locations west of the Pecos River.

Increasing southwesterly flow on Tuesday will result in stronger
southwesterly winds at the surface and aloft, and given deep mixing,
very strong winds are expected across the higher terrain and
adjacent plains, with windy conditions extending into the Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Downslope warming will also drive
temperatures higher, and the combination of the high temperatures
and strong winds will result in afternoon RHs around 5-10% for most
of the area. Given the cumulative effects of ongoing dry/warm
conditions on available fuels, forecast fire danger of Very High to
Extreme for all but the Big Bend Area and far Lower Trans Pecos is
reasonable.  RFTIs from the northern Permian Basin southwest across
the Trans Pecos toward Culberson county are high critical to
extreme, with RFTI values of 8-9 across far southeastern New Mexico,
Reeves county and the Upper Trans Pecos, and the Van Horn/Highway 54
corridor. Winds in these areas could gust to 60 to 70 mph through
the afternoon, yielding extremely dangerous conditions if ignition
occurs. Have upgraded Tuesday`s Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning, and included the entire area, despite winds being a bit
more marginal in eastern portions of Terrell county.

A cold front arriving early Wednesday will provide a reprieve from
the critical fire weather conditions for at least a few days. Cooler
temperatures and lighter winds in the wake of the front, as well as
slowly increasing RH, will keep fire weather concerns at bay through
the end of the week, despite continued dry conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  79  43  60 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  75  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  86  53  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  82  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  64  37  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          45  73  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  74  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  79  43  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         50  80  43  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           46  81  41  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for Southern Lea
     County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM MST Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Southeast
     Plains.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for Eddy County
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 7 PM CST /6 PM
     MST/ Tuesday for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for Andrews-Big
     Bend Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Presidio Valley-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM MST Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CST Tuesday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning from 5 AM CST /4 AM MST/ to 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ Tuesday for Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/10

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