Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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518
FXUS64 KMAF 161011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR, if not VILFR, visibility in fog may affect KCNM and KHOB thru
16/15Z, with perhaps MVFR at KINK and KMAF.  Westerly surface
winds and heating will likely help dissipate the fog by 16/16Z, or
shortly thereafter.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
areawide through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

The upper low that brought thunderstorms to the area yesterday has
lifted into the Plains this morning. Low level moisture remains in
place however and is combining with light winds to produce fog,
some dense, across northern parts of the region. Fog will begin
to mix out later this morning as the sun works on it and westerly
winds pick up. Look for mostly sunny skies by afternoon across
most of the area with highs climbing back to near normal. An upper
trough will lag back to our west behind the main system over the
Plains. This will bring another chance for showers Tuesday along
with cooler temperatures behind a cold front. The upper trough
really doesn`t leave the area until it gets kicked out by another
system Thursday. After Tuesday much of the precipitation
associated with this trough will remain east of our area. High
temperatures will slowly moderate back above normal by late week.

As we head into the weekend, models indicate an intense upper jet
will streak across the western U.S. and into our area. This system
looks to bring strong winds for possibly a lengthy period of time,
but models disagree on timing. We could also see another chance
of rain across portions of the area. Once the system moves by,
temperatures will cool and drier air will filter in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Carlsbad                       60  36  48  36 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         70  46  54  43 /   0   0  30  30
Fort Stockton                  65  38  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 51  34  42  35 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          57  32  47  35 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          59  32  49  32 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         61  36  49  38 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           61  35  50  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
910
FXUS64 KMAF 160426
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1026 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs/radar/satellite imagery shows precip has cleared West
texas and Southeast new Mexico, and latest models suggest no
wraparound/redevelopment overnight. We`ll do a quick update to
remove rain chances, and update other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S.
Plains, having scoured all terminals to VFR except maybe KHOB. No
obs for KHOB are available, but last obs had LIFR cigs. Otherwise,
all other terminals should keep VFR cigs next 24 hours. Sfc flow
should remain SW-W thru 00Z Tue, after which light return flow
develops. The only wild card overnight will be fog development.
For now, we`ll continue a mention of MVFR visibilities around
sunrise KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and update as needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44
205
FXUS64 KMAF 160335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S.
Plains, having scoured all terminals to VFR except maybe KHOB. No
obs for KHOB are available, but last obs had LIFR cigs. Otherwise,
all other terminals should keep VFR cigs next 24 hours. Sfc flow
should remain SW-W thru 00Z Tue, after which light return flow
develops. The only wild card overnight will be fog development.
For now, we`ll continue a mention of MVFR visibilities around
sunrise KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and update as needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
944
FXUS64 KMAF 160306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
906 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to cancel the High Wind Warning, and also removed mention
of thunder for the rest of the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds across the Guadalupe Mountains have dropped below High Wind
Warning criteria, and are expected to continue to diminish
overnight tonight. Thus, have gone ahead and canceled the High
Wind Warning that was in effect. Also, as the upper low
responsible for the active weather today continues to lift to the
northeast, the threat of thunderstorms has shifted well to the
east of the area this evening, thus ending the potential for
thunderstorms through tonight. A few showers remain possible,
particularly across northern portions of the forecast area, but
additional rain amounts will be light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM, ushering in
dryer air as westerly sfc flow sets in. Skies are rapidly
improving behind the main band of convection, which has cleared
all terminals. Worst case scenario looks to be possible
redevelopment of MVFR cigs overnight KMAF/KCNM/KINK, and maybe IFR
KHOB. Bigger question will be fog development, and forecast
soundings develop it at KHOB, KINK, and KMAF near sunrise.
W/westerly flow, this will be questionable, and we`ll keep
visibilities at MVFR or better for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
553
FXUS64 KMAF 152309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM, ushering in
dryer air as westerly sfc flow sets in. Skies are rapidly
improving behind the main band of convection, which has cleared
all terminals. Worst case scenario looks to be possible
redevelopment of MVFR cigs overnight KMAF/KCNM/KINK, and maybe IFR
KHOB. Bigger question will be fog development, and forecast
soundings develop it at KHOB, KINK, and KMAF near sunrise.
W/westerly flow, this will be questionable, and we`ll keep
visibilities at MVFR or better for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/84/44
105
FXUS64 KMAF 151735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Warm front is lifting n and winds will turn se in its wake with
improving CIGS/VSBY. TSRA were from around HOB to MAF to FST
moving n at 40kt while the area is moving ne. Some strong to
possibly severe TSRA are possible. Consensus is that front is
expected to e of MAF/FST between 21Z- 22Z. Have TEMPO groups in
TAF sites til then. CIGS/VSBY will afterwards. but fog may settle
back in Mon AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have broken up the LIFR visibility and
ceilings at area terminals somewhat.  The lower ceilings, and
visibility, may set back in through 15/15Z, but will carry mainly
MVFR ceilings, with temporary lower conditions.  Expect additional
thunderstorms to develop and spread west to east over the forecast
area.  Ceilings will lift, but gusts of 45kt or greater could occur
with TSRA. winds will veer to the southwest and increase after
thunderstorms pass by.  Expect VFR conditions areawide tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

.Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  59  36  57 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  58  34  56 /  20   0  10  10
Dryden                         44  69  45  61 /  10   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  40  63  39  59 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 35  50  34  50 /  20   0  10  10
Hobbs                          33  56  31  55 /  20   0  10  10
Marfa                          29  58  30  57 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           38  60  35  57 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  57 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           36  60  34  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
109
FXUS64 KMAF 151105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have broken up the LIFR visibility and
ceilings at area terminals somewhat.  The lower ceilings, and
visibility, may set back in through 15/15Z, but will carry mainly
MVFR ceilings, with temporary lower conditions.  Expect additional
thunderstorms to develop and spread west to east over the forecast
area.  Ceilings will lift, but gusts of 45kt or greater could occur
with TSRA. winds will veer to the southwest and increase after
thunderstorms pass by.  Expect VFR conditions areawide tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

..Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  37  59  36 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  37  58  34 /  90  20   0  10
Dryden                         71  44  69  45 /  70  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  65  40  63  39 /  80  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  35  50  34 /  90  20   0  10
Hobbs                          40  33  56  31 / 100  20   0  10
Marfa                          58  29  58  30 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  38  60  35 / 100  20   0   0
Odessa                         53  37  60  35 / 100  10   0   0
Wink                           51  36  60  34 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/29
063
FXUS64 KMAF 150447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR to VLIFR conditions in low clouds/fog are expected to
continue areawide through early afternoon Sunday. Intermittent
light rain will continue overnight, with a couple isolated
thunderstorms that could affect PEQ and INK within the first
few hours of the forecast period. There is a better chance of
thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning across the west and moving
east through the afternoon, though have not included mention at
this time. Winds will be E/SE around 10-15kt with higher gusts
until Sunday afternoon when they shift to the SW, with gusts to
around 25kt possible. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR
areawide by 16/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

UPDATE...

Patchy dense fog is occurring across the Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico, with the dense fog expected to expand
through the evening hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for this evening through a portion of the overnight hours, though
an extension may be required if trends continue late tonight into
early Sunday. Visibility across Southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin could drop below 1/4 mile at times, thus anyone
planning to travel will need to be cautious and allow extra time
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today... cross the
Rio Grande on Sunday... then move into OK by Monday morning.  A
secondary trough back to the west will develop a closed low over
Mexico that will move through Thursday ahead of a West Coast trough
that moves through Friday.

The front that had been hanging over the center of the area pushed
to the Rio Grande last night.  This front will return north Sunday.
Precipitation today ranged from light drizzle... to rain showers...
to freezing rain... to thunderstorms.  Have mention of rain/freezing
rain over the NE counties once again tonight as temps there should
remain below freezing.  QPF shows the heavier rain starting west and
moving across the area Sunday... have potential for locally heavy
rain and some flash flooding.  The upper low will push a Pacific
front through the area Sunday with wind coming around to the west.
A cold front moves down into the area late Monday.

Latest SPC day1 has a marginal risk of severe storms over the
western counties... this location is a shift westward from previous
days... but the sun is breaking out in this area and temps are
climbing.  Still have a slight risk severe eastern part of area
Sunday.  Also looking at an expected high wind event Sunday in the
Guadalupes as upper low swings over.  Will have a Pacific front
sweeping across with a west wind and a 700mb wind of 40kts.
Preparing to issue a High Wind Warning for tomorrow from 18z to 06z.

Have widespread over the area and fog north today... cold with
afternoon temps in the 30s for much of the area but guidance tries
warming temps overnight.  Current lows tonight under guidance which
seems right.  Temperatures should return to near normal Sunday with
next week looking mild with temperatures warming into the 60s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  56  38  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  53  37  59 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  70  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  66  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  48  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  57 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          42  56  27  59 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  57  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  56  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  58  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
805
FXUS64 KMAF 142359
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Patchy dense fog is occurring across the Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico, with the dense fog expected to expand
through the evening hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for this evening through a portion of the overnight hours, though
an extension may be required if trends continue late tonight into
early Sunday. Visibility across Southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin could drop below 1/4 mile at times, thus anyone
planning to travel will need to be cautious and allow extra time
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR/LIFR conditions in low stratus/fog prevail areawide, with
VLIFR currently affecting HOB. Do not expect improvement through
Sunday morning, with intermittent light rain affecting all
terminals. While there could be a thunderstorm or two through
tonight, confidence was too low to include mention. A better
chance of thunderstorms is expected Sunday, beginning across the
west during the morning and moving eastward through the afternoon,
though have not included TSRA mention at this time due to
uncertainty in timing/location. Winds will vary from NE to SE
around 10-15kt with higher gusts through much of the period,
though after 18Z Sunday, winds are expected to shift to the SW,
remaining gusty. A return to MVFR and possibly VFR conditions is
expected late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today... cross the
Rio Grande on Sunday... then move into OK by Monday morning.  A
secondary trough back to the west will develop a closed low over
Mexico that will move through Thursday ahead of a West Coast trough
that moves through Friday.

The front that had been hanging over the center of the area pushed
to the Rio Grande last night.  This front will return north Sunday.
Precipitation today ranged from light drizzle... to rain showers...
to freezing rain... to thunderstorms.  Have mention of rain/freezing
rain over the NE counties once again tonight as temps there should
remain below freezing.  QPF shows the heavier rain starting west and
moving across the area Sunday... have potential for locally heavy
rain and some flash flooding.  The upper low will push a Pacific
front through the area Sunday with wind coming around to the west.
A cold front moves down into the area late Monday.

Latest SPC day1 has a marginal risk of severe storms over the
western counties... this location is a shift westward from previous
days... but the sun is breaking out in this area and temps are
climbing.  Still have a slight risk severe eastern part of area
Sunday.  Also looking at an expected high wind event Sunday in the
Guadalupes as upper low swings over.  Will have a Pacific front
sweeping across with a west wind and a 700mb wind of 40kts.
Preparing to issue a High Wind Warning for tomorrow from 18z to 06z.

Have widespread over the area and fog north today... cold with
afternoon temps in the 30s for much of the area but guidance tries
warming temps overnight.  Current lows tonight under guidance which
seems right.  Temperatures should return to near normal Sunday with
next week looking mild with temperatures warming into the 60s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  56  38  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  53  37  59 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  70  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  66  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  48  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  57 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          42  56  27  59 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  57  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  56  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  58  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
856
FXUS64 KMAF 141724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1124 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR and occasional LIFR conditions are expected across southwest
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals through tonight. Ceilings
and visibility will begin to improve from west to east as a
Pacific cold front enters southeast New Mexico Sunday morning.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible through Saturday
morning with mainly light rain through tonight. Thunderstorms will
increase Saturday morning.

Winds will be generally northeast to east at less than 12 knots
through tonight. Southeast winds will begin to increase at FST
this evening and other terminals after 12Z. Wind gusts to 25 knots
are possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

LIFR AND VLIFR ceilings will affect most area terminals through
14/18Z, with LIFR conditions likely persisting through the
afternoon.  In addition, light rain and fog will make visibility
just as low at most terminals through the morning.  Thunderstorms
will be possible at all area terminals today and tonight. Will
not include mention at any specific terminal, but the lower
ceiling and visibility may be temporarily interrupted by TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

.Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  57  39  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       37  54  38  58 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  71  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  47  63  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  47  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  56 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          45  56  29  58 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  58  40  60 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  57  40  60 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  59  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Howard-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

99/99/05
736
FXUS64 KMAF 141107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR AND VLIFR ceilings will affect most area terminals through
14/18Z, with LIFR conditions likely persisting through the
afternoon.  In addition, light rain and fog will make visibility
just as low at most terminals through the morning.  Thunderstorms
will be possible at all area terminals today and tonight. Will
not include mention at any specific terminal, but the lower
ceiling and visibility may be temporarily interrupted by TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

..Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  37  57  39 /  70  60  80  30
Carlsbad                       45  37  54  38 /  60  80  80  20
Dryden                         68  60  71  44 /  50  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  47  47  63  41 /  60  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 43  36  47  34 /  50  70  80  20
Hobbs                          42  35  52  33 /  70  80  90  20
Marfa                          59  45  56  29 /  50  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           41  39  58  40 /  70  60  80  20
Odessa                         40  39  57  40 /  70  60  80  20
Wink                           44  41  59  36 /  70  70  80  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

67/29
436
FXUS64 KMAF 140641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1241 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Upglide continues to increase over the region early this morning
with light rain developing over the Permian Basin.  Boundary layer
temperatures are above freezing, however surface temperatures along
and north of a Tarzan to Snyder line have fallen below freezing in
many places.  Expect surface temperatures to drop to freezing or
below as far south as a Tarzan to Big Spring to Colorado City
through late tonight as light rain increases in these areas, and wet
bulbing occurs with surface dewpoints in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Have decided to issue a Freezing Rain Advisory for Dawson and
Martin, eastward to Scurry and Mitchell counties, which will last
until 14/18Z.  Although the ground is warm, a thin layer of ice
could accumulate on power lines, trees, and bridges and
overpasses.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1054 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Challenging flight conditions will continue the next 24 hours.
MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and fog are affecting all
terminals, with deterioration to LIFR expected late tonight
through much of Saturday morning for MAF, INK, HOB, and PEQ. Light
rain is expected to develop by Saturday morning for all but
possibly PEQ and FST, and while isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Saturday areawide, have not included mention at this
time. Winds will generally be E/NE around 10-15KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  42  57  40 /  60  60  80  20
Carlsbad                       49  43  54  40 /  60  70  70  10
Dryden                         72  58  69  44 /  40  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  60  50  65  42 /  50  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  43  48  34 /  40  70  70  10
Hobbs                          45  40  53  35 /  70  80  80  20
Marfa                          61  38  53  30 /  30  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  45  59  40 /  60  60  80  10
Odessa                         49  47  57  40 /  70  60  80  10
Wink                           52  46  59  36 /  60  70  70  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

29
625
FXUS64 KMAF 140454
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1054 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Challenging flight conditions will continue the next 24 hours.
MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and fog are affecting all
terminals, with deterioration to LIFR expected late tonight
through much of Saturday morning for MAF, INK, HOB, and PEQ. Light
rain is expected to develop by Saturday morning for all but
possibly PEQ and FST, and while isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Saturday areawide, have not included mention at this
time. Winds will generally be E/NE around 10-15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  48  42  57 /  60  60  60  80
Carlsbad                       39  49  43  54 /  40  60  70  70
Dryden                         61  72  58  69 /  50  40  50  60
Fort Stockton                  51  60  50  65 /  40  50  50  70
Guadalupe Pass                 42  55  43  48 /  30  40  70  70
Hobbs                          34  45  40  53 /  50  70  80  80
Marfa                          41  61  38  53 /  20  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           36  49  45  59 /  60  60  60  80
Odessa                         37  49  47  57 /  50  70  60  80
Wink                           38  52  46  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
936
FXUS64 KMAF 132354 AAE
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Despite PEQ, FST, and INK being VFR at issuance, expect quick
deterioration to MVFR after sunset, and IFR by around 03-06Z.
Thereafter, IFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide, with
E/NE winds around 12kt. LIFR conditions are also possible after
06Z tonight through Saturday morning, particularly at CNM, HOB,
INK, and MAF. Rain/drizzle is possible through the period, with
isolated thunderstorms possible on Saturday afternoon. However,
have not included mention of TSRA at this time due to low
confidence/timing uncertainties that far out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  48  42  57 /  60  60  60  80
Carlsbad                       39  49  43  54 /  40  60  70  70
Dryden                         61  72  58  69 /  50  40  50  60
Fort Stockton                  51  60  50  65 /  40  50  50  70
Guadalupe Pass                 42  55  43  48 /  30  40  70  70
Hobbs                          34  45  40  53 /  50  70  80  80
Marfa                          41  61  38  53 /  20  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           36  49  45  59 /  60  60  60  80
Odessa                         37  49  47  57 /  50  70  60  80
Wink                           38  52  46  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
172
FXUS64 KMAF 131716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1116 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Widespread MVFR cigs expected to persist today with a cold front
stalled near a CNM, PEQ, FST line. Most terminal have a NE wind and
should see FST veer to the E/NE over the next few hours. Flight
conditions are expected to deteriorate after 14/00Z with IFR/LIFR
cigs/vis persisting through Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

.Major storm expected to impact the region today through the
weekend with heavy rain and strong storms...

Rich Gulf moisture has spread west across the area early this
morning as a cold front also moves slowly south over the Permian
Basin. Low clouds have developed along with patchy drizzle along
and behind the front. Temperatures have fallen into the mid 30`s
across the northern Permian Basin and will continue their downward
trend through the morning given moderate CAA. This could lead to
the possibility of light freezing rain mixing in across these
locations as temperatures reach 32 degrees. Impacts are still
expected to remain minimal due to a warm ground, but there could
be a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses from Lamesa to
Snyder. Temperatures in these locations should warm above freezing
around Noon today, changing everything back into a cold rain. The
front will not make much headway today and likely stall along the
Pecos River this afternoon. North of the front, temperatures will
struggle to rise staying mainly in the 30`s and 40`s. South of
the boundary, expect another warm day with temperatures well above
normal. Isentropic lift will contribute to light rain and drizzle
today before a large storm system to our west brings more
substantial precipitation this weekend.

An intense upper low will dig south into N. Mexico today and begin
moving east Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will pull
moisture in off the Pacific while strong southeast winds bring in
Gulf moisture at the surface. The aforementioned front looks to
settle along the Pecos River for the good part of the weekend. This
boundary will act to focus shower and thunderstorm development
through the day Saturday before it begins to lift north through the
area as a warm front. Similar to this morning, temperatures will
fall to near freezing tonight and early Saturday morning over the
far northern Permian Basin. Even though temperatures may be near
freezing at the surface, a thick warm layer aloft will exist.
Precipitation falling through this layer will act to help warm the
surface so much of it may fall as just a cold rain. Will highlight
the possibility of slick spots on bridges and overpasses in the HWO.
Even though it will be another chilly day north of the front,
temperatures should be above freezing much of the day.

The upper low then begins to lift northeast early Sunday. As it does
so, large scale ascent will increase and the cold front will move
back north across the area as a warm front. The atmosphere will
become moderately unstable with MUCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg. Given
the track of the upper trough, a quasi-linear line of storms is
expected to move across the area Sunday. Damaging winds are the most
likely threat with these storms, but large hail, heavy rain, and
localized flooding will also be a possibility.

Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected as the
upper system lifts into the Plains early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  35  48  45 /  40  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       54  41  50  45 /  20  40  50  70
Dryden                         72  61  72  58 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  68  51  62  51 /  20  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  55  43 /  10  30  40  70
Hobbs                          45  35  45  40 /  20  50  60  80
Marfa                          70  41  65  41 /  10  20  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           47  37  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         48  38  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           55  39  52  46 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72
269
FXUS64 KMAF 131100
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
500 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect MVFR ceilings to remain over most area terminals today and
tonight.  IFR ceilings will be more sporadic this morning and
affect KCNM, KPEQ and KFST, along with MVFR visibility in fog.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate tonight, with ceilings
dropping to IFR after 14/00Z, and visibility decreasing to at
least MVFR after 14/06Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

..Major storm expected to impact the region today through the
weekend with heavy rain and strong storms...

Rich Gulf moisture has spread west across the area early this
morning as a cold front also moves slowly south over the Permian
Basin. Low clouds have developed along with patchy drizzle along
and behind the front. Temperatures have fallen into the mid 30`s
across the northern Permian Basin and will continue their downward
trend through the morning given moderate CAA. This could lead to
the possibility of light freezing rain mixing in across these
locations as temperatures reach 32 degrees. Impacts are still
expected to remain minimal due to a warm ground, but there could
be a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses from Lamesa to
Snyder. Temperatures in these locations should warm above freezing
around Noon today, changing everything back into a cold rain. The
front will not make much headway today and likely stall along the
Pecos River this afternoon. North of the front, temperatures will
struggle to rise staying mainly in the 30`s and 40`s. South of
the boundary, expect another warm day with temperatures well above
normal. Isentropic lift will contribute to light rain and drizzle
today before a large storm system to our west brings more
substantial precipitation this weekend.

An intense upper low will dig south into N. Mexico today and begin
moving east Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will pull
moisture in off the Pacific while strong southeast winds bring in
Gulf moisture at the surface. The aforementioned front looks to
settle along the Pecos River for the good part of the weekend. This
boundary will act to focus shower and thunderstorm development
through the day Saturday before it begins to lift north through the
area as a warm front. Similar to this morning, temperatures will
fall to near freezing tonight and early Saturday morning over the
far northern Permian Basin. Even though temperatures may be near
freezing at the surface, a thick warm layer aloft will exist.
Precipitation falling through this layer will act to help warm the
surface so much of it may fall as just a cold rain. Will highlight
the possibility of slick spots on bridges and overpasses in the HWO.
Even though it will be another chilly day north of the front,
temperatures should be above freezing much of the day.

The upper low then begins to lift northeast early Sunday. As it does
so, large scale ascent will increase and the cold front will move
back north across the area as a warm front. The atmosphere will
become moderately unstable with MUCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg. Given
the track of the upper trough, a quasi-linear line of storms is
expected to move across the area Sunday. Damaging winds are the most
likely threat with these storms, but large hail, heavy rain, and
localized flooding will also be a possibility.

Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected as the
upper system lifts into the Plains early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  35  48  45 /  40  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       54  41  50  45 /  20  40  50  70
Dryden                         72  61  72  58 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  68  51  62  51 /  20  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  55  43 /  10  30  40  70
Hobbs                          45  35  45  40 /  20  50  60  80
Marfa                          70  41  65  41 /  10  20  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           47  37  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         48  38  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           55  39  52  46 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
197
FXUS64 KMAF 130455
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1055 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR stratus and fog is currently developing from east to west,
with MVFR conditions already observedat MAF. Conditions are
expected to continue to deteriorate through tonight, with IFR
conditions expected to develop by late tonight/early Friday
morning. Light rain is also possible at MAF around 12Z, with low-
end MVFR/IFR conditions expected to continue through the day
Friday. LIFR conditions will be possible at most terminals after
14/00Z. Winds will vary between NE/SE around 12KT through the
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the West coast will develop into a closed low and
dig south to Mexico Friday before swinging east.  This low will move
over Northern Mexico Saturday... swinging across the area Sunday and
lifting northward.  This low will bring cooler wx and a chance of
precipitation to the area.  A secondary lobe of the trough will dig
south behind it Monday and Tuesday.

A cold front will backdoor into region tonight but should hang up east
to west across the center of the area.  The wind will come around to
the E/NE along and behind the front.  This means southern CWA will
remain much warmer.  Had record highs yesterday in the 80s... MAF
recorded a high of 83 yesterday.  Friday and Saturday highs in the 30s
to 50s north of the Pecos River with 60s and 70s south of it.  Lows
mainly in the 30s and 40s.  The next front moves through Monday.

Precip chances begin this evening and will be on the increase through
the weekend.  Tonight and Friday low chance of light rain or rainshower
over the eastern half of the area.  May see a mix of rain/freezing rain
develop over portions of the NE Permian Basin early Friday and Saturday
mornings.  Rain chances increase Friday night.  By Saturday add
Thunderstorms to the mix as good moisture... frontal boundary... and
upper lift combine.  Severe storms possible Saturday/Saturday night
with SPC placing a marginal risk along the TX/NM border.  Storms
possible again Sunday and could see redevelopment of severe wx farther
east.  Will also have potential for some good rainfall Saturday and
Sunday so flash flooding will also be a concern.  Not much expected
Monday with a better chance of showers again on Tuesday.  Have
increased pops slightly tonight for the east and areawide on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  44  33  46 /  30  30  50  60
Carlsbad                       41  53  37  49 /  10  10  40  50
Dryden                         54  70  60  70 /  10  20  40  40
Fort Stockton                  47  64  48  61 /  10  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 47  57  39  53 /   0  10  30  30
Hobbs                          37  47  33  45 /  10  20  50  60
Marfa                          33  69  41  62 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           40  49  34  47 /  20  30  50  50
Odessa                         41  50  34  48 /  20  30  50  50
Wink                           44  53  37  51 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
667
FXUS64 KMAF 122322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail areawide at issuance, however deteriorating
conditions are expected this evening. MVFR stratus is expected to
overspread the area from east to west, with conditions becoming
IFR after 06Z at MAF, INK, and HOB. IFR conditions are also
possible late tonight/Friday morning at CNM, PEQ, and FST. MAF
could see some light rain around 12Z, though low-end MVFR or IFR
conditions look to continue at all sites through the end of the
period. Winds will vary between NE and SE around 12kt or less.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over the West coast will develop into a closed low and
dig south to Mexico Friday before swinging east.  This low will move
over Northern Mexico Saturday... swinging across the area Sunday and
lifting northward.  This low will bring cooler wx and a chance of
precipitation to the area.  A secondary lobe of the trough will dig
south behind it Monday and Tuesday.

A cold front will backdoor into region tonight but should hang up east
to west across the center of the area.  The wind will come around to
the E/NE along and behind the front.  This means southern CWA will
remain much warmer.  Had record highs yesterday in the 80s... MAF
recorded a high of 83 yesterday.  Friday and Saturday highs in the 30s
to 50s north of the Pecos River with 60s and 70s south of it.  Lows
mainly in the 30s and 40s.  The next front moves through Monday.

Precip chances begin this evening and will be on the increase through
the weekend.  Tonight and Friday low chance of light rain or rainshower
over the eastern half of the area.  May see a mix of rain/freezing rain
develop over portions of the NE Permian Basin early Friday and Saturday
mornings.  Rain chances increase Friday night.  By Saturday add
Thunderstorms to the mix as good moisture... frontal boundary... and
upper lift combine.  Severe storms possible Saturday/Saturday night
with SPC placing a marginal risk along the TX/NM border.  Storms
possible again Sunday and could see redevelopment of severe wx farther
east.  Will also have potential for some good rainfall Saturday and
Sunday so flash flooding will also be a concern.  Not much expected
Monday with a better chance of showers again on Tuesday.  Have
increased pops slightly tonight for the east and areawide on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  44  33  46 /  30  30  50  60
Carlsbad                       41  53  37  49 /  10  10  40  50
Dryden                         54  70  60  70 /  10  20  40  40
Fort Stockton                  47  64  48  61 /  10  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 47  57  39  53 /   0  10  30  30
Hobbs                          37  47  33  45 /  10  20  50  60
Marfa                          33  69  41  62 /  10   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           40  49  34  47 /  20  30  50  50
Odessa                         41  50  34  48 /  20  30  50  50
Wink                           44  53  37  51 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
185
FXUS64 KMAF 121733
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1133 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of mostly the southeast through this
afternoon. A cold front with northeast winds is expected to come
through the area tonight into Friday morning. Low ceilings and
visibilities as well as a chance of light rain are expected behind
the front.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A large storm system will impact the region this weekend, but
confidence remains low regarding precipitation type Friday into
Saturday.

After smashing the record high Wednesday, temperatures will cool
slightly today as low level moisture and clouds begin to increase. A
strong cold front is currently moving slowly southwest through the
TX Panhandle. This boundary will be a major player over the next
several days. The front is expected to edge south into the area this
afternoon to near Snyder by 5 PM. Southeasterly winds ahead of the
front will help to increase dewpoints throughout the day and keep
temperatures mostly in the 70`s.

An upper trough will begin to take shape over CA later today before
cutting off from the main flow and sliding south into N. Mexico
Friday. At the surface, the above mentioned cold front will continue
slowly working its way south through the area tonight into Friday.
Isentropic upglide will likely lead to the development of drizzle or
light rain behind the front late tonight and Friday. Surface
temperatures may just be cold enough to get some freezing rain to
mix in across parts of Dawson, Borden, and Scurry counties Friday
morning. Forecast soundings indicate a rather thick warm layer
above the surface so it is possible precipitation would stay a
cold rain. For now, have reintroduced a mix of freezing rain into
the forecast for these areas, but things will likely change over
the next 24 hrs. Impacts are expected to remain low due to a warm
ground and temperatures staying near the freezing mark.

The front will likely hang up along the Pecos River Friday afternoon
creating a large temperature gradient across the area. Look for 70`s
along the Rio Grande and only 30`s for highs over the northern
Permian Basin. We should see just a cold light rain over the
Permian Basin Friday afternoon, before temperatures fall to near
freezing again in the same areas Friday night and Saturday
morning. Will again add a mix of rain and freezing rain over the
far northern Permian Basin during this time. Impacts are again
expected to remain low at this time.

The upper low will move east across Mexico Saturday before lifting
quickly across our area Sunday. As this occurs, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread during the day
Sunday. By this time, temperatures areawide should be above
freezing. A decent rainfall event for mid January is looking likely
across the northern half of the area with average QPF amounts around
0.5" to 1".

The upper low will weaken as it lifts into the Plains early next
week. Recent model trends indicate this does not appear to be the
end of this system. A shortwave lagging behind the system will help
dig the upper trough once again to our west late Monday. At the same
time, another cold front will slide through the region.
Precipitation is once again expected to develop as the upper trough
moves across the area Tuesday. Precip type remains in question at
this time as the colder GFS would indicate a chance for snow while
the warmer ECMWF keeps all liquid. Stay tuned!

Cooler and drier conditions move back in behind this system by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  36  44  35 /   0  20  30  50
Carlsbad                       75  42  53  39 /   0   0  10  40
Dryden                         73  53  70  60 /   0  10  10  40
Fort Stockton                  76  48  64  49 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 68  47  58  39 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          70  38  47  35 /   0  10  20  50
Marfa                          73  34  68  44 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           73  40  49  36 /   0  20  30  50
Odessa                         73  41  50  36 /   0  10  20  50
Wink                           74  44  53  39 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
215
FXUS64 KMAF 121034
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
434 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak cold front will move into the area today, w/fropa at KMAF ~
14Z. Conditions should remain VFR unti after 00Z Fri, when stratus
is forecast to develop. Buffer soundings suggest cigs/visibilities
ranging from LIFR at KMAF to MVFR KCNM/KFST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A large storm system will impact the region this weekend, but
confidence remains low regarding precipitation type Friday into
Saturday.

After smashing the record high Wednesday, temperatures will cool
slightly today as low level moisture and clouds begin to increase. A
strong cold front is currently moving slowly southwest through the
TX Panhandle. This boundary will be a major player over the next
several days. The front is expected to edge south into the area this
afternoon to near Snyder by 5 PM. Southeasterly winds ahead of the
front will help to increase dewpoints throughout the day and keep
temperatures mostly in the 70`s.

An upper trough will begin to take shape over CA later today before
cutting off from the main flow and sliding south into N. Mexico
Friday. At the surface, the above mentioned cold front will continue
slowly working its way south through the area tonight into Friday.
Isentropic upglide will likely lead to the development of drizzle or
light rain behind the front late tonight and Friday. Surface
temperatures may just be cold enough to get some freezing rain to
mix in across parts of Dawson, Borden, and Scurry counties Friday
morning. Forecast soundings indicate a rather thick warm layer
above the surface so it is possible precipitation would stay a
cold rain. For now, have reintroduced a mix of freezing rain into
the forecast for these areas, but things will likely change over
the next 24 hrs. Impacts are expected to remain low due to a warm
ground and temperatures staying near the freezing mark.

The front will likely hang up along the Pecos River Friday afternoon
creating a large temperature gradient across the area. Look for 70`s
along the Rio Grande and only 30`s for highs over the northern
Permian Basin. We should see just a cold light rain over the
Permian Basin Friday afternoon, before temperatures fall to near
freezing again in the same areas Friday night and Saturday
morning. Will again add a mix of rain and freezing rain over the
far northern Permian Basin during this time. Impacts are again
expected to remain low at this time.

The upper low will move east across Mexico Saturday before lifting
quickly across our area Sunday. As this occurs, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread during the day
Sunday. By this time, temperatures areawide should be above
freezing. A decent rainfall event for mid January is looking likely
across the northern half of the area with average QPF amounts around
0.5" to 1".

The upper low will weaken as it lifts into the Plains early next
week. Recent model trends indicate this does not appear to be the
end of this system. A shortwave lagging behind the system will help
dig the upper trough once again to our west late Monday. At the same
time, another cold front will slide through the region.
Precipitation is once again expected to develop as the upper trough
moves across the area Tuesday. Precip type remains in question at
this time as the colder GFS would indicate a chance for snow while
the warmer ECMWF keeps all liquid. Stay tuned!

Cooler and drier conditions move back in behind this system by
midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  36  44  35 /   0  20  30  50
Carlsbad                       75  42  53  39 /   0   0  10  40
Dryden                         73  53  70  60 /   0  10  10  40
Fort Stockton                  76  48  64  49 /   0  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 68  47  58  39 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          70  38  47  35 /   0  10  20  50
Marfa                          73  34  68  44 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           73  40  49  36 /   0  20  30  50
Odessa                         73  41  50  36 /   0  10  20  50
Wink                           74  44  53  39 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
264
FXUS64 KMAF 120422
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1022 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds have mostly decreased to less than 10kt at TAF sites with
thinning high clouds advancing from the west. Otherwise VFR. A
weak front is in the far NE Panhandle and will slowly move south
resulting in e-ne wind shift around 18Z Thur, wind speeds will
remain 10kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  71  47  52 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         48  71  56  71 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  47  76  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 45  67  46  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  43  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           41  73  51  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
014
FXUS64 KMAF 120125 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
725 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...
RFW has expired for GDP Mtns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The potential for critical wx has passed and the RFW has expired.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Winds are subsiding across the TAF sites and are expected to
be 10-15kts no later than 02Z, and lighter thereafter. Winds are
still strong aloft with turbulence INVOF GDP Mtns dangerous for
low flying light aircraft and can be expected overnight.
Otherwise VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is beginning to move southward over the west coast
allowing the CWA to be under west southwest flow aloft.  Upper winds
aloft are continuing to mix downward towards the surface over the
Guadalupe Mountains resulting in high wind.  The High Wind Warning
for the Guadalupe Mountains continues through most of tonight.
Elevated and gusty southwest winds will be present across the area
today resulting in downslope compressional warming.  This
compressional warming, along with clearing skies, will result in
warmer temperatures than yesterday.  The current temperature is 81
degrees in Midland and the record high for today is 78 degrees so
the record has already been beat.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon due to strong winds, low
RH values, above normal temperatures, and high to extreme fire
danger.

On Thursday, the upper trough will strengthen and move over
California.  850 mb temperatures over the CWA will be cooler as the
upper trough approaches the region so expect high temperatures
tomorrow to mostly be in the lower to mid 70s.  On Friday, the upper
trough moves southward and will be centered just off the coast of
southern California.  Models are indicating that a cold front will
begin moving into the CWA sometime Friday morning with the NAM12
moving it in faster and further south than the GFS and ECMWF.  Upper
lift and moisture will increase on Friday ahead of the upper trough
allowing for precipitation chances across mainly northern and
eastern sections of the CWA.  High temperatures on Friday will be
tricky depending on how far south and how fast the front moves into
the area.

The NAM12 is colder than 24 hours ago with this model now indicating
temperatures cooling to around freezing Friday night/Saturday
morning.  The GFS and ECMWF continue to show temperatures well above
freezing by Saturday morning for the northern CWA.  The NAM12
forecast sounding near Snyder, TX shows rain changing over to
freezing rain around midnight Friday night.  This sounding shows
freezing rain through Saturday morning with temperatures warming to
a little above freezing Saturday afternoon.  The NAM12 sounding for
Midland shows temperatures Saturday morning hovering a few degrees
above freezing so expect mostly a cold rain although a little bit of
wintry precip can`t be ruled out especially if the temperature cools
to the dewpoint temperature at the surface.  High temperatures
Saturday will again depend on how far south the front moves
according to the GFS/ECMWF or NAM12.  Since the NAM12 seems to be
the outlier, did not include freezing temperatures or frozen
precipitation in the forecast. There will be enough instability
ahead of the front across the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County
that thunderstorms will be possible both Friday and Saturday with
negative LI index values and mid-level lapse rates around 7 degrees
C/km.  The models show the precipitation spreading further westward
across the area on Saturday.

The upper trough moves over the CWA on Sunday with the models
showing the highest precipitation amounts falling this day.  The GFS
and ECMWF show a Pacific front with westerly winds moving through
the area on Sunday.  The models also show most of the precipitation
ending by Sunday night and another front coming into the area
accompanied by a northerly wind shift.  It doesn`t appear that this
front will have much impact on temperatures as highs on Monday are
expected to be fairly similar to Sunday.  Another extension of the
upper trough will move over the region on Tuesday but mostly dry
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  71  47  52 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         48  71  56  71 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  47  76  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 45  67  46  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  43  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           41  73  51  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
534
FXUS64 KMAF 112345
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds are subsiding across the TAF sites and are expected to
be 10-15kts no later than 02Z, and lighter thereafter. Winds are
still strong aloft with turbulence INVOF GDP Mtns dangerous for
low flying light aircraft and can be expected overnight.
Otherwise VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is beginning to move southward over the west coast
allowing the CWA to be under west southwest flow aloft.  Upper winds
aloft are continuing to mix downward towards the surface over the
Guadalupe Mountains resulting in high wind.  The High Wind Warning
for the Guadalupe Mountains continues through most of tonight.
Elevated and gusty southwest winds will be present across the area
today resulting in downslope compressional warming.  This
compressional warming, along with clearing skies, will result in
warmer temperatures than yesterday.  The current temperature is 81
degrees in Midland and the record high for today is 78 degrees so
the record has already been beat.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect
for the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon due to strong winds, low
RH values, above normal temperatures, and high to extreme fire
danger.

On Thursday, the upper trough will strengthen and move over
California.  850 mb temperatures over the CWA will be cooler as the
upper trough approaches the region so expect high temperatures
tomorrow to mostly be in the lower to mid 70s.  On Friday, the upper
trough moves southward and will be centered just off the coast of
southern California.  Models are indicating that a cold front will
begin moving into the CWA sometime Friday morning with the NAM12
moving it in faster and further south than the GFS and ECMWF.  Upper
lift and moisture will increase on Friday ahead of the upper trough
allowing for precipitation chances across mainly northern and
eastern sections of the CWA.  High temperatures on Friday will be
tricky depending on how far south and how fast the front moves into
the area.

The NAM12 is colder than 24 hours ago with this model now indicating
temperatures cooling to around freezing Friday night/Saturday
morning.  The GFS and ECMWF continue to show temperatures well above
freezing by Saturday morning for the northern CWA.  The NAM12
forecast sounding near Snyder, TX shows rain changing over to
freezing rain around midnight Friday night.  This sounding shows
freezing rain through Saturday morning with temperatures warming to
a little above freezing Saturday afternoon.  The NAM12 sounding for
Midland shows temperatures Saturday morning hovering a few degrees
above freezing so expect mostly a cold rain although a little bit of
wintry precip can`t be ruled out especially if the temperature cools
to the dewpoint temperature at the surface.  High temperatures
Saturday will again depend on how far south the front moves
according to the GFS/ECMWF or NAM12.  Since the NAM12 seems to be
the outlier, did not include freezing temperatures or frozen
precipitation in the forecast. There will be enough instability
ahead of the front across the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County
that thunderstorms will be possible both Friday and Saturday with
negative LI index values and mid-level lapse rates around 7 degrees
C/km.  The models show the precipitation spreading further westward
across the area on Saturday.

The upper trough moves over the CWA on Sunday with the models
showing the highest precipitation amounts falling this day.  The GFS
and ECMWF show a Pacific front with westerly winds moving through
the area on Sunday.  The models also show most of the precipitation
ending by Sunday night and another front coming into the area
accompanied by a northerly wind shift.  It doesn`t appear that this
front will have much impact on temperatures as highs on Monday are
expected to be fairly similar to Sunday.  Another extension of the
upper trough will move over the region on Tuesday but mostly dry
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  71  47  52 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  72  46  60 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         48  71  56  71 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  47  76  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 45  67  46  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  43  52 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          31  71  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         43  72  52  57 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           41  73  51  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
197
FXUS64 KMAF 111727
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1127 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist at TAF locations through the forecast
period. Breezy to windy southwest to west surface winds will
persist through the afternoon hours, gradually diminishing this
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Record warm temperatures expected today before a strong, springlike
storm system affects the area this weekend.

Zonal mid level flow over the Southern Rockies has induced an area
of surface low pressure over western Kansas this morning. This will
lead to downsloping, southwesterly surface winds across much of the
region today. Expect high temperatures to reach well into the 70`s
and 80`s with 90 degrees not out of the question along the Rio Grande
later this afternoon. The record high for Midland Intl today is 78
set in 1935.

Our weekend storm system will begin to take shape along the West
Coast Thursday, turning mid level winds more to the southwest over
our region. Expect another warm day Thursday, but increasing
moisture and clouds should keep temperatures from reaching any
records. The upper trough will cut off from the main flow Friday and
slide southeast into northern Mexico. Meanwhile a cold front will
move south into the Southern Plains Friday and likely stall across
the area. Forecast confidence drops pretty quickly by this time as
models struggle with how far south the cold airmass will get. The
GFS is the warmest and furthest north with the front while most of
the other models move the front to near the Pecos River before
stalling it Friday afternoon. Will lean toward the NAM and ECMWF
as they have been most consistent. Luckily, it appears temperatures
even behind the front will stay above freezing during the day Friday
as precipitation begins to develop across the area.

Several factors will then come into play this weekend hopefully
leading to widespread rainfall across much of the area. Large scale
ascent will increase with the approach of the upper low as will
isentropic upglide along and behind the stalled cold front. As it
appears now, our best shot of precipitation, likely showers and
thunderstorms, will come Saturday night into Sunday as the upper low
lifts north across New Mexico. Heavy rain will be possible and may
lead to runoff and localized flooding due to dormant vegetation
and a hard, dry ground. Again, the current forecast will keep all
precipitation in the liquid form as freezing temperatures look to
remain off to the north. This could change, but the trend as of
late has been for overall warmer temperatures this weekend.

A cold front will bring drier and cooler conditions early next week
as the upper low weakens over the Plains.

FIRE WEATHER...

08Z observations at several sites in the Guadalupes report critical
20` winds under zonal flow aloft.  This zonal flow has been
persistent over the past 24 hours, and models forecast it to
continue another 24 more.  Latest NAM forecasts 750mb westerlies
over the next 24 hours of 45-50kts at times.  Temperatures today
will be unseasonably warm, resulting in critical RH, beginning in
the northern reaches of NMZ114 and quickly spreading south into
TXZ258.  The ERC seasonal graph for the Trans Pecos shows ERCs have
climbed to normal.  Forecast Fire Danger for the Guadalupes is high-
extreme, so we`ll issue a RFW for that area. Adjacent plains will
have critical RH this afternoon, but 20` winds don`t look to pan
out. However, we`ll note the dry conditions in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  73  49  57 /   0   0  20  40
Carlsbad                       43  73  44  62 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         48  73  55  72 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  45  76  51  72 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 47  67  47  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  42  53 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          36  73  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  74  53  60 /   0   0  10  30
Odessa                         45  74  53  61 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           41  74  48  66 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

03/80/03
248
FXUS64 KMAF 111018
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
418 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under a few high
clouds. SW flow will continue, becoming gusty this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Record warm temperatures expected today before a strong, springlike
storm system affects the area this weekend.

Zonal mid level flow over the Southern Rockies has induced an area
of surface low pressure over western Kansas this morning. This will
lead to downsloping, southwesterly surface winds across much of the
region today. Expect high temperatures to reach well into the 70`s
and 80`s with 90 degrees not out of the question along the Rio Grande
later this afternoon. The record high for Midland Intl today is 78
set in 1935.

Our weekend storm system will begin to take shape along the West
Coast Thursday, turning mid level winds more to the southwest over
our region. Expect another warm day Thursday, but increasing
moisture and clouds should keep temperatures from reaching any
records. The upper trough will cut off from the main flow Friday and
slide southeast into northern Mexico. Meanwhile a cold front will
move south into the Southern Plains Friday and likely stall across
the area. Forecast confidence drops pretty quickly by this time as
models struggle with how far south the cold airmass will get. The
GFS is the warmest and furthest north with the front while most of
the other models move the front to near the Pecos River before
stalling it Friday afternoon. Will lean toward the NAM and ECMWF
as they have been most consistent. Luckily, it appears temperatures
even behind the front will stay above freezing during the day Friday
as precipitation begins to develop across the area.

Several factors will then come into play this weekend hopefully
leading to widespread rainfall across much of the area. Large scale
ascent will increase with the approach of the upper low as will
isentropic upglide along and behind the stalled cold front. As it
appears now, our best shot of precipitation, likely showers and
thunderstorms, will come Saturday night into Sunday as the upper low
lifts north across New Mexico. Heavy rain will be possible and may
lead to runoff and localized flooding due to dormant vegetation
and a hard, dry ground. Again, the current forecast will keep all
precipitation in the liquid form as freezing temperatures look to
remain off to the north. This could change, but the trend as of
late has been for overall warmer temperatures this weekend.

A cold front will bring drier and cooler conditions early next week
as the upper low weakens over the Plains.

FIRE WEATHER...

08Z observations at several sites in the Guadalupes report critical
20` winds under zonal flow aloft.  This zonal flow has been
persistent over the past 24 hours, and models forecast it to
continue another 24 more.  Latest NAM forecasts 750mb westerlies
over the next 24 hours of 45-50kts at times.  Temperatures today
will be unseasonably warm, resulting in critical RH, beginning in
the northern reaches of NMZ114 and quickly spreading south into
TXZ258.  The ERC seasonal graph for the Trans Pecos shows ERCs have
climbed to normal.  Forecast Fire Danger for the Guadalupes is high-
extreme, so we`ll issue a RFW for that area. Adjacent plains will
have critical RH this afternoon, but 20` winds don`t look to pan
out. However, we`ll note the dry conditions in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  45  73  49 /   0   0   0  20
Carlsbad                       77  43  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         82  48  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  83  45  76  51 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  47  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  39  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          76  36  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           81  45  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         80  45  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           79  41  74  48 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/29/44
496
FXUS64 KMAF 110429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1029 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds have decreased to less than 10kts at all TAF sites and will
mostly stay that way thru the night. SW-W wind will increase by
18Z Wed. Highs winds are still expected thru the GDP Mtns
favoring severe turbulence for light low flying aircraft INVOF the
GDP Mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  82  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  79  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  79  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  69  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  76  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  75  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  80  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         46  80  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  81  40  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
032
FXUS64 KMAF 102339
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
539 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Westerly winds on the decrease and then back across the west with
a weak front between HOB-CNM and MAF-PEQ. Otherwise VFR wx
overnight. Turbulence can be expected around the GDP Mtns per mtns
wave set up. W-SW winds will increase around 18Z Wed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Mostly zonal flow with scattered high clouds are over the region.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to be similar to yesterday
except the high clouds may inhibit temperatures from getting as
warm. The record for today at Midland is 76 degrees set in 1935 so a
new record high may be set today. Higher winds aloft are mixing down
to the surface over the Guadalupe Mountains resulting in high wind.
A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains through
Wednesday night although there may be brief periods where the wind
goes below high wind criteria.

Similar conditions will exist tomorrow with mostly zonal flow.  850
mb temperatures will be slightly warmer tomorrow than today so
expect high temperatures tomorrow to make it into the upper 70s to
lower 80s for much of the area.  Since the record high temperature
for Midland for tomorrow is 78 degrees, this record will likely be
exceeded for tomorrow.  On Thursday, an upper trough will deepen and
move south over the California coast.  A cold front will be pushing
southward across the Great Plains associated with an upper low over
southern Canada.  850 temperatures will cool on Thursday in
association with the approaching upper trough and lower heights over
the region.  Expect highs to mostly be in the 60s and 70s across the
CWA on Thursday in advance of the cold front.  The upper trough
moves eastward toward the area on Friday and lift and moisture will
increase in advance of this trough.  Lift will also increase along
the cold front which is expected to move into the area sometime
Friday or Friday night.  Due to this increase in lift and moisture,
precipitation chances will increase across the area on Friday.  Mid-
level lapse rates on Friday are expected to be from 7 to 8 degrees
Celsius/km across the area so thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of and along the front. High temperatures on Friday will
depend on the timing and strength of the front which the models
are still disagreeing on but are expected to be closer to normal
values for Midland.

The upper trough/low moves over southern Arizona/northern Mexico by
Saturday evening with lift and moisture continuing to increase
across the CWA.  The GFS shows the cold front stalling out over the
northern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  If this is
the case, then temperatures will be warmer than previously expected
for much of the area.  The warmer temperatures will result in the
precipitation mainly staying in the form of rain and thunderstorms
staying in the forecast for Saturday with lapse rates mostly ranging
from 7 to 8 degrees C/km.  The models show the upper low lifting
northeastward over northern New Mexico on Sunday with temperatures
staying above freezing but precipitation continuing across the area.
The models are showing most of the rain ending by Sunday evening
across the CWA.  The GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement with
temperatures over the weekend but they both appear to keep the
freezing temperatures just to the north of the CWA.

The models are showing either an extension of the upper trough or
a separate upper low over southern Arizona/northern Mexico on
Monday. The GFS is indicating a Pacific front with westerly winds
moving across the area on Sunday with the winds shifting to the
northwest then north on Monday. This front is not expected to have
much impact on temperatures. Near average temperatures in the 50s
are expected for the early part of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical fire weather conditions will persist until 11/00Z,
with winds diminishing outside the Guadalupe Mountains and
mitigating fire weather concerns tonight.  RH recovery tonight will
be poor over most locations west of the Pecos River, but good to
excellent east.

Near record to record high temperatures will occur again Wednesday
afternoon which will drop RH/s to 5 to 15 percent over SE NM, and
near 15 percent over the rest of the forecast area.  Westerly winds
of at least 15 to 20 mph will affect most locations along and north
of Interstate 10 Wednesday afternoon.  A few locations over SE NM,
the Upper Trans Pecos and central and northern Permian Basin could
see an hour or two of critical conditions, but likely not long
enough for a Red Flag Warning.  A Fire Danger Statement will likely
be issued for Wednesday afternoon north of Interstate 10.

After poor recovery west of the Pecos River, good east, Wednesday
night, more minimum afternoon RH/s of 10 to 15 percent are expected
along and west of the Pecos River Thursday afternoon.  Since 20 foot
wind speeds will generally be less than 15 mph, critical conditions
are not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  82  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  79  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  79  48  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  51  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 45  69  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  76  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          35  75  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  80  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         46  80  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           42  81  40  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 101723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon, tonight and
Wednesday. Southwest to west winds will be a little gusty this
afternoon, but should decrease after 11/00Z.  Winds will become
westerly again Wednesday afternoon, increase to 10 to 15kt at most
area terminals, and be gusty during the afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

Warm days are here again.  WV imagery shows generally zonal flow
across the CONUS, w/an upper trough approaching the MS Valley.  At
the sfc, high winds are currently registering at the Bowl in the
Guadalupes, and forecast H7 wind fields suggest this will continue
for the next 48 hours or so.  Latest NAM mtn wave signature forecast
and H7 height gradient fields suggest this could translate to the
lower elevations Wednesday afternoon for a few hours, and we`ll keep
the high wind warning in place for the Guadalupes.

For temps, guidance has been a bit on the cold side, likely
underestimating downslope warming in SW flow.  Current guidance
still seems too cool, as thicknesses are forecast to remain more or
less steady the next few days, so everything points toward warmer,
near-record temps for at least the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, an upper trough just of the PacNW coast is forecast to
begin strengthening and moving down the west coast late in the week,
transitioning zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to
SW.  Return flow will begin bringing Gulf moisture up from the SE
Thursday night, when models try to backdoor a cold front into the NE
zones.  This will increase chances of rain across the NE zones
Friday, w/chances increasing E-W into the weekend as the trough
crosses Baja, approaches the region, and large-scale ascent takes .
over.  Long-range models are in some disagreement as to the track
of the trough as it passes thru the area, but best chances of rain
for the FA look to be Saturday night.  Models even show enough
instability in place for an isolated thunderstorm or two.   Friday
night, forecast soundings hint at the possibility of -FZRA in the
north, as moisture will be too shallow for -SN.  However, the column
saturates enough for -SN over the northern zones Sat/Sun nights.  Of
course, this will also be dependent on the track of the trough, so
this could change as the event nears.  Temps should stay at or below
normal Friday thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  47  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  46  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  47  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  83  51  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          75  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  36  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           79  46  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  46  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           80  41  81  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
773
FXUS64 KMAF 101105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Warm days are here again.  WV imagery shows generally zonal flow
across the CONUS, w/an upper trough approaching the MS Valley.  At
the sfc, high winds are currently registering at the Bowl in the
Guadalupes, and forecast H7 wind fields suggest this will continue
for the next 48 hours or so.  Latest NAM mtn wave signature forecast
and H7 height gradient fields suggest this could translate to the
lower elevations Wednesday afternoon for a few hours, and we`ll keep
the high wind warning in place for the Guadalupes.

For temps, guidance has been a bit on the cold side, likely
underestimating downslope warming in SW flow.  Current guidance
still seems too cool, as thicknesses are forecast to remain more or
less steady the next few days, so everything points toward warmer,
near-record temps for at least the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, an upper trough just of the PacNW coast is forecast to
begin strengthening and moving down the west coast late in the week,
transitioning zonal flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to
SW.  Return flow will begin bringing Gulf moisture up from the SE
Thursday night, when models try to backdoor a cold front into the NE
zones.  This will increase chances of rain across the NE zones
Friday, w/chances increasing E-W into the weekend as the trough
crosses Baja, approaches the region, and large-scale ascent takes .
over.  Long-range models are in some disagreement as to the track
of the trough as it passes thru the area, but best chances of rain
for the FA look to be Saturday night.  Models even show enough
instability in place for an isolated thunderstorm or two.   Friday
night, forecast soundings hint at the possibility of -FZRA in the
north, as moisture will be too shallow for -SN.  However, the column
saturates enough for -SN over the northern zones Sat/Sun nights.  Of
course, this will also be dependent on the track of the trough, so
this could change as the event nears.  Temps should stay at or below
normal Friday thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  47  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  46  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         81  47  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  83  51  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 71  46  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          75  41  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  36  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           79  46  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         79  46  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           80  41  81  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/29
200
FXUS64 KMAF 100445
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1045 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge over the region this afternoon will flatten, head
east tonight and Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs traverse
the southwester/central CONUS.  Although there will be periodic
bouts of high cloud coverage, lift associated with these waves will
be too far north for any precipitation through Thursday.  What this
pattern will promote is near record to record high temperatures, dry
conditions and enough wind in the mountains for high wind concerns.
Will not fiddle around with the Guadalupe Mountains, that is, will
go ahead and issue a High Wind Warning starting tonight, which will
last through Wednesday night. Think high winds could occur as early
as tonight in the higher elevations, which could develop in the
lower elevations during the day Tuesday, and again Wednesday during
the day.  There could be a break in the higher winds, but it appears
they will be sporadic in both the higher and lower elevations for an
extended period of time.

A low level thermal ridge expanding over the CWA this afternoon will
be dampened somewhat Tuesday due to a passing shortwave trough,
before making a comeback Wednesday areawide.  Despite the dip in h85
temps and influx of high clouds Tuesday, think west to northwest
downslope winds will make the difference as far as temperatures
warming to near record or record levels.  Considering surface winds
will be in the 15 to 20 mph range at times, there will be fire
weather concerns.  More details for fire weather is contained in the
discussion below.

By Thursday, heights/thicknesses will begin to fall ahead of an
upper trough deepening over the southwestern CONUS.  It appears
this will mitigate most of the fire weather concerns with a little
cooler temperatures, and high winds in the mountains.  But the focus
of the forecast will then turn to the arrival of a cold front and
precipitation chances increasing ahead of, and possibly under, a
cutoff upper low.  Differences still abound with the handling of
both synoptic features, so will leave fairly high PoPs and the
possibility of wintry precipitation going in the forecast Friday
night through Saturday night, and perhaps Sunday if some of the
slower solutions come about.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  77  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  78  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  53  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  68  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  77  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  76  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  42  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
239
FXUS64 KMAF 092313
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
513 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail
at all terminals.

Note: Strong SW winds across the Guadalupe Mountains tonight and
tomorrow will likely result in severe turbulence near this area,
resulting in hazardous flying conditions particularly for low
flying light aircraft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge over the region this afternoon will flatten, head
east tonight and Tuesday as a series of shortwave troughs traverse
the southwester/central CONUS.  Although there will be periodic
bouts of high cloud coverage, lift associated with these waves will
be too far north for any precipitation through Thursday.  What this
pattern will promote is near record to record high temperatures, dry
conditions and enough wind in the mountains for high wind concerns.
Will not fiddle around with the Guadalupe Mountains, that is, will
go ahead and issue a High Wind Warning starting tonight, which will
last through Wednesday night. Think high winds could occur as early
as tonight in the higher elevations, which could develop in the
lower elevations during the day Tuesday, and again Wednesday during
the day.  There could be a break in the higher winds, but it appears
they will be sporadic in both the higher and lower elevations for an
extended period of time.

A low level thermal ridge expanding over the CWA this afternoon will
be dampened somewhat Tuesday due to a passing shortwave trough,
before making a comeback Wednesday areawide.  Despite the dip in h85
temps and influx of high clouds Tuesday, think west to northwest
downslope winds will make the difference as far as temperatures
warming to near record or record levels.  Considering surface winds
will be in the 15 to 20 mph range at times, there will be fire
weather concerns.  More details for fire weather is contained in the
discussion below.

By Thursday, heights/thicknesses will begin to fall ahead of an
upper trough deepening over the southwestern CONUS.  It appears
this will mitigate most of the fire weather concerns with a little
cooler temperatures, and high winds in the mountains.  But the focus
of the forecast will then turn to the arrival of a cold front and
precipitation chances increasing ahead of, and possibly under, a
cutoff upper low.  Differences still abound with the handling of
both synoptic features, so will leave fairly high PoPs and the
possibility of wintry precipitation going in the forecast Friday
night through Saturday night, and perhaps Sunday if some of the
slower solutions come about.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  77  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  78  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  53  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  68  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          43  77  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  76  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           46  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  78  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  82  42  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72
902
FXUS64 KMAF 091726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1126 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become elevated with some gusts out of the south to southwest this
afternoon before weakening and becoming more southerly this
evening. Winds will then shift back toward the southwest to west
by Tuesday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday will be unseasonably warm as strengthening
westerly flow aloft modulates the development of the lee side trof
and attendant low level thermal ridge. Mostly, the said lee trof
will remain in westward position, but a better downslope wind
component will promote adiabatic mixing of low levels and
momentum transport of stronger winds aloft Tue/Wed. Per the westerly
mid level component there will be a better set-up for a mtn wave
across the GDP Mtns Tue/Wed, but winds could increase as soon as
late Mon night when 40kt winds near 725mb level. MOS guidance is
slow to increase winds in the mtns. For now we will not issue a
high watch as onset timing and duration is still an issue. Today
the warmest temps will be across SE NM/Upper Trans Pecos/wrn PB,
then Tue/Wed extending farther east. High temps will be mostly
15-25 degrees above normal today-Wed and 10-15 degrees above on
Thur. Some record high temps will probably be broken. Attention
then turns to the next upper low that will move to INVOF of SW AZ
by Fri PM and cold air will be moving south in advance of the low.
Models are still trying to settle on a common soln. There is
decent agreement with 5h low timing/location, but on the latest
00Z run GFS has brought the colder farther south much earlier. In
general temps sfc-85h are warmer than model data 24hrs ago, making
precip type uncertain for Sat AM. The 85h temps are warm and so
depending on magnitude of cold shallow air a possible precip type
is FZRA? Another complication is that low level moisture will be
in an abundance and there will not be much room for wet bulb
cooling? Best window for precip will Sat AM-Sun AM and in general
the highest PoPs will be e/n of the Pecos River.

FIRE WEATHER...
Positive temp anomalys over these next few days will be accompanied
by decreasing trends in min RHs as well. Mon-Tue the driest air will
reside from the SE NM Plains-Trans Pecos-W PB. By Wed dry air will
have chance to push out farther east with the stronger westerly
winds (25kts at 5kft). MSLP gradient is mostly lacking thus
limiting wind across the low elevations. Winds will be stronger in
the mtns, but RHs will be a little higher. A such these days will
be good candidates for Fire Danger Statements (including today for
SE NM and most of the Trans Pecos) while watching for lower RHs
in the mtns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  46  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       82  47  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  44  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  81  53  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 72  48  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          78  43  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          74  39  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  47  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           77  44  83  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/

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