Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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742
FXUS64 KMAF 231722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Radar shows scattered -SHRA east of MAF with others n around the
LBB area. These -SHRA are within NW flow and few -SHRA are
possible in the MAF/HOB areas before 21Z. Otherwise CIGS have
lifted to above MVFR, except at FST. Clouds will continue to lift
and by early evening they should all mostly be dissipated with
VFR wx expected overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  87  64  99 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  92  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         55  90  62  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  89  66 100 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  86  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  85  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          43  87  49  93 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  86  63  99 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  86  63  99 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           50  90  57 101 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
371
FXUS64 KMAF 231130
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings are deteriorating this morning as a cold front begins to
make its way into the area. MVFR ceilings, and perhaps IFR, are
expected areawide through the morning, with gradual improvement to
VFR expected after 19Z. While showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
could affect area terminals today, high-res guidance has backed
off, and given radar trends, have removed -RA mention and will
monitor and amend as needed. Otherwise, gusty north/northeast
winds are expected in the wake of the front, with gusts
diminishing by this evening. Winds will quickly return to the
south/southwest overnight tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current obs are showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are developing to our north behind a cold front
moving into the Permian Basin, and models are in good agreement
that this area of rainfall will spread south into our CWA later
this morning. Rainfall amounts will likely be light to moderate
but any additional accumulations will be welcome. Stability is
increasing behind the cold front so no severe storms are expected.
Clouds and rain will keep highs well below normal today but enjoy
the cool weather while you can as an upper ridge approaches and
temps warm tomorrow, then become quite hot Thursday with highs
approaching or exceeding 100 degrees in much of West Texas and
southeastern New Mexico. The ridge axis shifts to our east on
Friday allowing for a slight cooling of a couple of degrees but it
will still be hot to end the week.

An upper low moving into the Northern Plains will send a cold
front our way Sunday bringing a relief to the hot temperatures
with highs dropping back to near or even slightly below normal
early next week. Some models are showing an upper disturbance
moving east along the U.S./Mexico border will encounter return
flow moisture and give us our next decent rain chances beginning
Monday.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  50  87  64 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  50  92  59 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  55  90  62 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68  52  89  66 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  51  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  47  85  58 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  43  87  49 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  52  86  63 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                         69  53  86  63 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                           72  50  90  57 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
234
FXUS64 KMAF 230536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the early cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #
256 and for the 06Z aviation discussion, which can be found below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms continue to move east out of the area this evening,
and without expectation of additional development to the west, the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Additional storms
are possible late tonight/early Tuesday morning as a cold front
pushes into the area, however, these storms are not expected to be
severe.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions have returned as showers and thunderstorms
have moved to the east. However, a cold front will move into the
area late tonight, which could bring another round of
precipitation to area terminals. While thunderstorms will be
possible with the front, probability is too low to include mention
at this time, thus have gone with TEMPO -RA mention and will
monitor for -TSRA and amend as needed. In the wake of the front,
winds will shift to the north and become gusty, and MVFR
conditions will return areawide. Periods of IFR ceilings are
possible through the morning, with a gradual improvement to VFR
expected areawide after 04/19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to cancel most of Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 256.

DISCUSSION...

A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward over the
eastern Permian Basin, and expect the storms could move out of the
area around 23/06Z.  Until then, there appears to be enough
instability for a few of these storms to produce strong winds or
hail.  Therefore, will leave the eastern most counties in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch number 256, but trim the western counties
where storms have already past through, and there is little
expectation of redevelopment.  A cold front will move into the
area late tonight with more showers and storms possible along and
behind it.  Do not think there will be any more severe storms at
that time.  An update will follow shortly for these changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00Z, so have
included a mention of TSRA in all area terminals.  Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail.  Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04Z too.  A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it.  Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max across the e
and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE NM or W PB
and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the wrn S Plain.
The forecast already has high PoPs in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  52  85  62 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  51  91  60 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  57  86  61 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  54  89  66 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  52  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  48  84  58 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          75  48  88  55 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  85  62 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  53  85  63 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                           74  52  89  60 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
663
FXUS64 KMAF 230334
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1034 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel most of Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 256.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward over the
eastern Permian Basin, and expect the storms could move out of the
area around 23/06Z.  Until then, there appears to be enough
instability for a few of these storms to produce strong winds or
hail.  Therefore, will leave the eastern most counties in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch number 256, but trim the western counties
where storms have already past through, and there is little
expectation of redevelopment.  A cold front will move into the
area late tonight with more showers and storms possible along and
behind it.  Do not think there will be any more severe storms at
that time.  An update will follow shortly for these changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00Z, so have
included a mention of TSRA in all area terminals.  Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail.  Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04Z too.  A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it.  Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max across the e
and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE NM or W PB
and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the wrn S Plain.
The forecast already has high PoPs in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  72  52  85 /  50  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       55  74  51  91 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  78  57  86 /  30  40  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  72  54  89 /  30  40  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  68  52  85 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  69  48  84 /  40  20  10   0
Marfa                          53  75  48  88 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  72  53  85 /  50  40  10   0
Odessa                         56  71  53  85 /  50  40  10   0
Wink                           58  74  52  89 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
306
FXUS64 KMAF 222248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00Z, so have
included a mention of TSRA in all area terminals.  Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail.  Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04Z too.  A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it.  Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max across the e
and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE NM or W PB
and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the wrn S Plain.
The forecast already has high PoPs in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  72  52  85 /  80  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       55  74  51  91 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  78  57  86 /  30  40  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  72  54  89 /  50  40  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  68  52  85 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  69  48  84 /  60  20  10   0
Marfa                          53  75  48  88 /  30  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  72  53  85 /  70  40  10   0
Odessa                         56  71  53  85 /  70  40  10   0
Wink                           58  74  52  89 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
461
FXUS64 KMAF 221722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Terminals will return to VFR conditions over the next hour or so as
low clouds continue to erode. Still expecting thunderstorm
activity to affect the region this afternoon, evening and
potentially overnight. Have included TEMPO TS at all terminals at
some point this afternoon/evening however will continue to monitor
timing and make adjustment as needed. Brief periods of MVFR can
be expected with any thunderstorm as heavy rain lower visibility.
Also, expect gusty and erratic winds with storms that move
overhead. A cold front is expected to move through Tuesday
morning, resulting in gusty north winds through mid day. Could
potentially have showers, thunderstorms and MVFR conditions along
with the front but for now just mentioned low cigs.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows a little convection north of Lea County this
morning, but much more is expected later today as an upper level
trough dives southeast out of the Rockies. Instability and shear
are enough that some storms will be severe with the greatest
threat area being the northern and eastern Permian Basin. This
activity will move east out of the area this evening before the
trough pushes a cold front south later tonight with more rainfall
expected along and behind this boundary.

Clouds and rain kept the high in Midland at an astonishing 71
degrees yesterday, and while it should be warmer today we are
still expecting highs to be well below normal again. Cold air
advection Tuesday will again keep highs in the 60s and 70s
everywhere except in the Big Bend. Enjoy this cool weather while
you can as a dampened west coast ridge moves into the Central
Plains Thursday, increasing westerly flow and causing
temperatures to soar to their highest levels of the year taking us
from one extreme to the other. Temps will diminish Friday, but
only by a couple of degrees and still above normal. The westerly
flow will also end rain chances through the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  60  74  53 /  30  80  50  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  74  50 /  50  30  20   0
Dryden                         82  66  81  56 /  20  30  40  10
Fort Stockton                  85  58  72  54 /  30  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  56  67  52 /  30  10  10   0
Hobbs                          75  51  67  47 /  50  60  30  10
Marfa                          83  50  74  43 /  30  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           77  58  72  52 /  30  70  40  10
Odessa                         77  57  72  53 /  30  70  40  10
Wink                           84  58  72  52 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
412
FXUS64 KMAF 221129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for mainly IFR ceilings this morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Some fog is also possible but
extensive low clouds should help limit its occurrence. Expect VFR
conditions to develop at the terminals around 22/18z. A strong
upper level disturbance will move into southeast New Mexico and
west Texas late this afternoon and this evening, bringing with it
either prob30 or tempo MVFR conditions in thunderstorms with brief
gusty winds.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows a little convection north of Lea County this
morning, but much more is expected later today as an upper level
trough dives southeast out of the Rockies. Instability and shear
are enough that some storms will be severe with the greatest
threat area being the northern and eastern Permian Basin. This
activity will move east out of the area this evening before the
trough pushes a cold front south later tonight with more rainfall
expected along and behind this boundary.

Clouds and rain kept the high in Midland at an astonishing 71
degrees yesterday, and while it should be warmer today we are
still expecting highs to be well below normal again. Cold air
advection Tuesday will again keep highs in the 60s and 70s
everywhere except in the Big Bend. Enjoy this cool weather while
you can as a dampened west coast ridge moves into the Central
Plains Thursday, increasing westerly flow and causing
temperatures to soar to their highest levels of the year taking us
from one extreme to the other. Temps will diminish Friday, but
only by a couple of degrees and still above normal. The westerly
flow will also end rain chances through the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  60  74  53 /  30  80  50  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  74  50 /  50  30  20   0
Dryden                         82  66  81  56 /  20  30  40  10
Fort Stockton                  85  58  72  54 /  30  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  56  67  52 /  30  10  10   0
Hobbs                          75  51  67  47 /  50  60  30  10
Marfa                          83  50  74  43 /  30  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           77  58  72  52 /  30  70  40  10
Odessa                         77  57  72  53 /  30  70  40  10
Wink                           84  58  72  52 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
499
FXUS64 KMAF 220534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for MVFR ceilings to develop overnight and then deteriorate
to IFR late tonight at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico
terminals. Some fog is also possible but extensive low clouds
should help limit its occurrence. Expect VFR conditions to
develop at the terminals by 22/18z. A strong upper level
disturbance will move into southeast New Mexico and west Texas
near 23/00z, bringing with it the chance for MVFR tsra. For now
will place prob30 groups at KCNM, KHOB, and KFST for tsra late
this afternoon and this evening.

12



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will develop into wester portions of the forecast
area, but probability is too low to include any mention at KCNM
and KPEQ.  Expect MVFR ceilings to form and spread northwestward
over the area later tonight, followed by IFR ceilings, if not
lower, late tonight.  Have kept fog mention to a minimum
considering the extent of the expected MVFR/IFR cloud deck.
Think ceilings will improve from west to east from 22/14Z after.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

Shrtwv trof moving across nrn MX along with steep LR/s and ample
low level moisture have combined to result in pockets of heavy
rain across the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos (2.14" at Chisos
Basin). These storms are tracking e and area of heaviest rain
confined to the Lower Trans Pecos. Additional development is
possible further w into the Big Bend area, but strongest storms
will likely be farther e. Local heavy rain/a few severe storms
will be possible remainder of the afternoon across parts of the
Trans Pecos. Farther n into the PB a smaller, but at times severe,
cluster of storm is moving n. Most recent radar indicate some
weakening. These storms have good chance to moves into
Andrews/Martin Counties?We have made an adjustment to PoPs and wx
for this PM to account for local heavy rain/severe tstms. By late
afternoon Mon/Mon evening steep mid level LR/s within NW flow and
surface Td in M50s in alignment with daytime heating along with
an identifiable shrtwv trof will be a good set-up for tstms across
PB. Initially tstms will be favored to develop in NE-E NM where
NAM12 indicates highest CAPES will be co-located with an area of
weak CINH. NAM12 targets the N-NE CWFA after 03Z while GFS is
farther w and earlier. Tstms are likely to be severe with MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts so large hail is
favored, NAM12 insists on strong outflow wind too. A cold front
will quickly re-enforce outflow winds and brief post-frontal
precip will be possible mainly in the morning across the PB and
then Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend region in the afternoon. High/low
temps on Tue are trending lower in the latest MOS #`s, highs in
the U60s-L70s are possible across the PB if clouds hold in. The
warm-up over the following days will be rapid and the cool wx on
Tue will seem like a distant memory. By Thur 85h temps over 30C
and downslope winds will push high temps into the U90s and L100s.
85h temps fall back into the U20C range Fri, but still mostly hot
Memorial Day weekend Fri-Sun.

HYDROLOGY...

Rio Grande at Castolon/Johnson Ranch responded to heavy rains
there this morning, flood warning at Castolon. Terlingua creek
also rose rapidly. Levels will fall rapidly in absence of
additional heavy rain.

Recent rains have done some good to local lakes. Champion Creek
south of Colorado City has risen 6 ft, and is at 50% capacity
which highest level since about 1998. Moss Creek Lake in Howard
County rose 3 ft and Lake Colorado City has risen about 3 ft to
48% capacity. Elsewhere O.H. Ivie is at 24.6% capacity and Lake
J.B. Thomas is at 59% capacity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  58  72  53 /  30  60  40  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  75  53 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         82  64  80  58 /  30  30  30  10
Fort Stockton                  85  61  74  55 /  20  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 82  55  70  52 /  20  20  10  10
Hobbs                          80  54  71  50 /  40  40  20  10
Marfa                          84  55  76  49 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           81  57  73  54 /  30  50  40  10
Odessa                         81  57  72  54 /  20  50  40  10
Wink                           84  59  75  54 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
437
FXUS64 KMAF 212301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will develop into wester portions of the forecast
area, but probability is too low to include any mention at KCNM
and KPEQ.  Expect MVFR ceilings to form and spread northwestward
over the area later tonight, followed by IFR ceilings, if not
lower, late tonight.  Have kept fog mention to a minimum
considering the extent of the expected MVFR/IFR cloud deck.
Think ceilings will improve from west to east from 22/14Z after.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

Shrtwv trof moving across nrn MX along with steep LR/s and ample
low level moisture have combined to result in pockets of heavy
rain across the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos (2.14" at Chisos
Basin). These storms are tracking e and area of heaviest rain
confined to the Lower Trans Pecos. Additional development is
possible further w into the Big Bend area, but strongest storms
will likely be farther e. Local heavy rain/a few severe storms
will be possible remainder of the afternoon across parts of the
Trans Pecos. Farther n into the PB a smaller, but at times severe,
cluster of storm is moving n. Most recent radar indicate some
weakening. These storms have good chance to moves into
Andrews/Martin Counties?We have made an adjustment to PoPs and wx
for this PM to account for local heavy rain/severe tstms. By late
afternoon Mon/Mon evening steep mid level LR/s within NW flow and
surface Td in M50s in alignment with daytime heating along with
an identifiable shrtwv trof will be a good set-up for tstms across
PB. Initially tstms will be favored to develop in NE-E NM where
NAM12 indicates highest CAPES will be co-located with an area of
weak CINH. NAM12 targets the N-NE CWFA after 03Z while GFS is
farther w and earlier. Tstms are likely to be severe with MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts so large hail is
favored, NAM12 insists on strong outflow wind too. A cold front
will quickly re-enforce outflow winds and brief post-frontal
precip will be possible mainly in the morning across the PB and
then Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend region in the afternoon. High/low
temps on Tue are trending lower in the latest MOS #`s, highs in
the U60s-L70s are possible across the PB if clouds hold in. The
warm-up over the following days will be rapid and the cool wx on
Tue will seem like a distant memory. By Thur 85h temps over 30C
and downslope winds will push high temps into the U90s and L100s.
85h temps fall back into the U20C range Fri, but still mostly hot
Memorial Day weekend Fri-Sun.

HYDROLOGY...

Rio Grande at Castolon/Johnson Ranch responded to heavy rains
there this morning, flood warning at Castolon. Terlingua creek
also rose rapidly. Levels will fall rapidly in absence of
additional heavy rain.

Recent rains have done some good to local lakes. Champion Creek
south of Colorado City has risen 6 ft, and is at 50% capacity
which highest level since about 1998. Moss Creek Lake in Howard
County rose 3 ft and Lake Colorado City has risen about 3 ft to
48% capacity. Elsewhere O.H. Ivie is at 24.6% capacity and Lake
J.B. Thomas is at 59% capacity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  79  58  72 /  30  30  60  40
Carlsbad                       60  85  57  75 /  30  30  20  20
Dryden                         64  82  64  80 /  50  30  30  30
Fort Stockton                  62  85  61  74 /  30  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 56  82  55  70 /  30  20  20  10
Hobbs                          58  80  54  71 /  20  40  40  20
Marfa                          54  84  55  76 /  30  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           60  81  57  73 /  30  30  50  40
Odessa                         60  81  57  72 /  30  20  50  40
Wink                           61  84  59  75 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
544
FXUS64 KMAF 211623
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect portions of the area
early this afternoon with -TS near FST currently. This is the only
site with mention of TSRA through this afternoon but will continue
to monitor radar trends and amend if needed. VFR to MVFR cigs should
persist through this evening then flight conditions expected to
deteriorate to IFR, if not lower. Otherwise, easterly winds will
prevail today with a few gusts through the evening hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing showers moving up from the southeast
into the Permian Basin this morning. This activity, though
continuing to spread northwest, should remain fairly weak and
isolated. The greatest rainfall potential for today will be in the
Big Bend where models are showing an upper disturbance moving out
of Mexico potentially producing heavy rainfall from Presidio to
Sanderson. This area has not seen much rain lately and can take
quite a bit of rain, but locally heavy downpours could still
create some flash flooding problems and this will be the greatest
weather threat for today.

Tomorrow a ridge builds over the west coast and northwesterly flow
over the Rockies will send another disturbance into the area.
Shear and instability will be enough to support severe
thunderstorms with large hail in discrete supercells, and also a
strong wind threat should the activity form an MCS. See more
details in the SWODY2 from SPC.

The trough will send a cold front into the CWA early Tuesday,
pushing the rain east but keeping below normal temps through
midweek. Things change Thursday when the ridge over the western
U.S. flattens and moves east with westerly flow bringing much
warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 90s to
100s with weaker flow Friday and Saturday only providing a couple
of degrees of relief.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  60  82  59 /  30  30  30  50
Carlsbad                       78  59  88  57 /  20  30  30  30
Dryden                         76  64  86  64 /  70  50  30  30
Fort Stockton                  71  60  84  60 /  50  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  82  55 /  30  30  30  20
Hobbs                          76  57  79  54 /  20  30  30  50
Marfa                          74  54  84  54 /  50  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           76  60  81  58 /  40  30  30  50
Odessa                         76  60  82  58 /  40  30  30  50
Wink                           78  60  86  58 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
109
FXUS64 KMAF 211102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings will become prevailing MVFR ceilings at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this morning and continue
through the TAF period. A strong upper level disturbance will kick
off showers and thunderstorms across mainly west Texas today
through early this evening. Confidence was high enough to include
a PROB30 group for MVFR showers and thunderstorms at KMAF, KINK,
and KPEQ with Tempo MVFR tsra at KFST through this evening.


12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing showers moving up from the southeast
into the Permian Basin this morning. This activity, though
continuing to spread northwest, should remain fairly weak and
isolated. The greatest rainfall potential for today will be in the
Big Bend where models are showing an upper disturbance moving out
of Mexico potentially producing heavy rainfall from Presidio to
Sanderson. This area has not seen much rain lately and can take
quite a bit of rain, but locally heavy downpours could still
create some flash flooding problems and this will be the greatest
weather threat for today.

Tomorrow a ridge builds over the west coast and northwesterly flow
over the Rockies will send another disturbance into the area.
Shear and instability will be enough to support severe
thunderstorms with large hail in discrete supercells, and also a
strong wind threat should the activity form an MCS. See more
details in the SWODY2 from SPC.

The trough will send a cold front into the CWA early Tuesday,
pushing the rain east but keeping below normal temps through
midweek. Things change Thursday when the ridge over the western
U.S. flattens and moves east with westerly flow bringing much
warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 90s to
100s with weaker flow Friday and Saturday only providing a couple
of degrees of relief.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  60  82  59 /  30  30  30  50
Carlsbad                       78  59  88  57 /  20  30  30  30
Dryden                         76  64  86  64 /  70  50  30  30
Fort Stockton                  71  60  84  60 /  50  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  82  55 /  30  30  30  20
Hobbs                          76  57  79  54 /  20  30  30  50
Marfa                          74  54  84  54 /  50  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           76  60  81  58 /  40  30  30  50
Odessa                         76  60  82  58 /  40  30  30  50
Wink                           78  60  86  58 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
347
FXUS64 KMAF 210503
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will become prevailing MVFR ceilings at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals in the 21/09z to 21/13z
Sunday morning time frame. MVFR ceilings will continue through
much of the day with a prob30 chance of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon at KMAF, KINK, KPEQ. Tempo MVFR conditions in
showers and thunderstorms are expected at KFST for much of Sunday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will be fairly light out of the east to southeast through
the overnight period before becoming elevated out of the southeast
Sunday afternoon. Low ceilings are expected to move into the area
around 09z to 12z. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase after 12z. The low ceilings are expected to remain across
most of the area through the afternoon tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Post-frontal low clouds have dissipated but clouds will return
tonight with se low level winds. Overnight the focus will be
across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos region where the best
chance of rain will be found, but moreso on Sunday after 12Z. The
presence of an upper level speed max/shrtwv trof and development
of se low level flow along with mid level LRs around 7.5 C/KM
will be sufficient for development of storms. PW will be around +
1 to 2 standard deviations and locally heavy rain will be a
concern along with a few strong/severe storms across the Big
Bend/Lower Trans Pecos. We have increased PoPs in said areas
Sunday including the mention of heavy rain. There could be some
low end response on the Rio Grande and tributaries? Farther n
across the PB low PoPs are warranted. On Monday tstms will likely
be more isold across the Trans Pecos. Mid level flow will
transition to NW on Monday and the chance of tstms will increase
Monday evening with an embedded shrtwv trof and PB will be on the
poleward side of a 95kt 3h jet. Storms initially are favored to
develop in ern NM on the leeward side of the low level thermal
ridge and develop/move se. These storms will likely be severe on
late Monday afternoon/evening. Even though there will be outflow
winds with this cluster of storms the real cold front is not
expected until closer to 12Z Tue. High/low temps will mostly
remain below through Monday then re-enforced with said front on
Tue. Pops will mostly be confined to s of the Pecos River Tue PM
INVOF the front. A strong warming trend will commence Wed and be
fully in gear by Thur into Sat. Next weekend is Memorial Day
weekend and is the climatological peak for severe wx, however the
current fcst will not be in alignment with climatology.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  57  76  60 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       80  56  77  61 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         80  65  74  65 /  30  40  70  30
Fort Stockton                  79  61  73  62 /  10  20  60  20
Guadalupe Pass                 73  53  69  56 /   0  10  40  20
Hobbs                          77  52  76  58 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          78  55  74  55 /  10  30  60  20
Midland Intl Airport           79  57  76  60 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                         79  58  75  61 /   0  10  20  20
Wink                           82  60  77  61 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
495
FXUS64 KMAF 202318
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be fairly light out of the east to southeast through
the overnight period before becoming elevated out of the southeast
Sunday afternoon. Low ceilings are expected to move into the area
around 09z to 12z. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase after 12z. The low ceilings are expected to remain across
most of the area through the afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Post-frontal low clouds have dissipated but clouds will return
tonight with se low level winds. Overnight the focus will be
across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos region where the best
chance of rain will be found, but moreso on Sunday after 12Z. The
presence of an upper level speed max/shrtwv trof and development
of se low level flow along with mid level LRs around 7.5 C/KM
will be sufficient for development of storms. PW will be around +
1 to 2 standard deviations and locally heavy rain will be a
concern along with a few strong/severe storms across the Big
Bend/Lower Trans Pecos. We have increased PoPs in said areas
Sunday including the mention of heavy rain. There could be some
low end response on the Rio Grande and tributaries? Farther n
across the PB low PoPs are warranted. On Monday tstms will likely
be more isold across the Trans Pecos. Mid level flow will
transition to NW on Monday and the chance of tstms will increase
Monday evening with an embedded shrtwv trof and PB will be on the
poleward side of a 95kt 3h jet. Storms initially are favored to
develop in ern NM on the leeward side of the low level thermal
ridge and develop/move se. These storms will likely be severe on
late Monday afternoon/evening. Even though there will be outflow
winds with this cluster of storms the real cold front is not
expected until closer to 12Z Tue. High/low temps will mostly
remain below through Monday then re-enforced with said front on
Tue. Pops will mostly be confined to s of the Pecos River Tue PM
INVOF the front. A strong warming trend will commence Wed and be
fully in gear by Thur into Sat. Next weekend is Memorial Day
weekend and is the climatological peak for severe wx, however the
current fcst will not be in alignment with climatology.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  76  60  79 /  10  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       56  77  61  84 /  10  20  20  30
Dryden                         65  74  65  83 /  40  70  30  10
Fort Stockton                  61  73  62  83 /  20  60  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 53  69  56  80 /  10  40  20  30
Hobbs                          52  76  58  79 /   0  10  20  30
Marfa                          55  74  55  82 /  30  60  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           57  76  60  81 /  10  20  20  20
Odessa                         58  75  61  80 /  10  20  20  20
Wink                           60  77  61  84 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
768
FXUS64 KMAF 201744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light northeast winds will veer to the east tonight. Models
indicate the potential for stratus to develop northwestward into
the area early Sunday morning, thus have included MVFR ceiling
mention at MAF/INK/HOB/FST where confidence is highest. If this
stratus develops, it will likely persist through the morning
hours. Until then, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently heading into the Big Bend with gusty northerly
winds in its wake. Front will continue to sag south into Mexico
today with much cooler temperatures expected in its wake. Guidance
is indicating some low level moisture and instability will
persist through tonight across the lower Trans Pecos and portions
of the Big Bend. This moisture will combine with an upper level
disturbance and the left exit region of the subtropical jet to
produce a slight chance to a chance of showers and thunderstorms
from the southeast Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend through tonight.

There will be a chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Low level moisture
will continue to advect into the region on the back side of a
surface high pressure system. Aloft, a more significant upper
level disturbance is forecast to track toward west Texas in the
left exit region of the subtropical jet. Large scale lift may also
be enhanced by the right exit region of a northern stream trough.
Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal values under
the influence of the surface high and abundant clouds expected.

More thunderstorms are expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Monday and Tuesday, aided by low level moisture
interacting with a persistent upper level jet and its embedded
shortwaves in cyclonic west to northwest flow aloft. A northern
stream cold front is also expected to push south Monday night and
Tuesday, providing an additional focus for precipitation development.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

Precipitation chances should be on the decrease next Wednesday
through Friday with weak upper level ridging in place. High
temperatures are expected to continue to be below normal Wednesday
behind the cold front but will increase to above normal by
next Thursday and Friday underneath the weak ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  78  60  79 /  10  30  40  20
Carlsbad                       57  78  60  84 /  10  40  30  20
Dryden                         65  76  66  82 /  40  50  50  20
Fort Stockton                  61  75  62  83 /  20  50  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 54  70  56  80 /  10  40  30  20
Hobbs                          52  76  58  79 /   0  30  30  20
Marfa                          55  74  56  82 /  20  50  50  20
Midland Intl Airport           58  78  60  81 /  10  30  40  20
Odessa                         59  77  61  80 /  10  30  40  20
Wink                           61  77  62  83 /  10  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
424
FXUS64 KMAF 201125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low VFR/MVFR CIGs have developed across the area this morning
behind a cold front. Models are showing moisture diminishing
throughout the morning so despite latest satellite showing some
increasing cloud coverage will remain optimistic with the TAFs
with mostly VFR conditions and the lone exception being FST, which
should become VFR near 18Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently heading into the Big Bend with gusty northerly
winds in its wake. Front will continue to sag south into Mexico
today with much cooler temperatures expected in its wake. Guidance
is indicating some low level moisture and instability will
persist through tonight across the lower Trans Pecos and portions
of the Big Bend. This moisture will combine with an upper level
disturbance and the left exit region of the subtropical jet to
produce a slight chance to a chance of showers and thunderstorms
from the southeast Permian Basin south to the lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend through tonight.

There will be a chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Low level moisture
will continue to advect into the region on the back side of a
surface high pressure system. Aloft, a more significant upper
level disturbance is forecast to track toward west Texas in the
left exit region of the subtropical jet. Large scale lift may also
be enhanced by the right exit region of a northern stream trough.
Temperatures are expected to remain well below normal values under
the influence of the surface high and abundant clouds expected.

More thunderstorms are expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Monday and Tuesday, aided by low level moisture
interacting with a persistent upper level jet and its embedded
shortwaves in cyclonic west to northwest flow aloft. A northern
stream cold front is also expected to push south Monday night and
Tuesday, providing an additional focus for precipitation development.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

Precipitation chances should be on the decrease next Wednesday
through Friday with weak upper level ridging in place. High
temperatures are expected to continue to be below normal Wednesday
behind the cold front but will increase to above normal by
next Thursday and Friday underneath the weak ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  58  78  60 /   0  10  30  40
Carlsbad                       80  57  78  60 /   0  10  40  30
Dryden                         80  65  76  66 /  30  40  50  50
Fort Stockton                  79  61  75  62 /  10  20  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 73  54  70  56 /   0  10  40  30
Hobbs                          77  52  76  58 /   0   0  30  30
Marfa                          78  55  74  56 /  10  20  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           79  58  78  60 /   0  10  30  40
Odessa                         79  59  77  61 /   0  10  30  40
Wink                           82  61  77  62 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
094
FXUS64 KMAF 200516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. a cold front is
currently shifting winds from the north which will eventually veer
around from the east and southeast by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 915 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to allow the Red Flag Warning to expire.

DISCUSSION...

The previously issued Red Flag Warning in effect for the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico plains has expired. A couple
locations may continue to have Red Flag criteria for the next hour
or two but expect a trend of lower wind speeds and higher relative
humidity to continue.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline has pushed e of MAF with a cold front dropping s thru the
S Plains and a surface low is INVOF nrn CWFA, thus a triple pt is
near the n-ne CWFA. Also an outflow boundary from earlier
convection is INVOF central Glasscock-w Howard-Dawson Co.. After
this mornings convection across the e-ne CWFA the atmosphere is
attempting to recover and there is a brief window for severe
storms e of line from Fluvanna-Big Lake this PM/early evening.
Post-frontal airmass is dry/more stable. FROPA will occur along
I-20 around 03Z and scenario for precip is for mstr to pool along
ern extent of frontal boundary and back build into far se CWFA and
Lower Trans Pecos after 06Z. Sensible wx Sat AM will include
brief windy conditions across the PB and much cooler conditions.
NE winds thru the day and some clouds will keep high temps below
normal as well, any precip chances will be confined to the Lower
Trans Pecos. The chance for precip will increase Sun AM-PM as
return se low level flow develops ahead of damping shrtwv trof.
Again clouds and cool se winds will keep temps below normal Sun
PM. Atmosphere modifies into Mon PM with NW flow aloft and low
probability PoPs will be warranted. A front in the Panhandle Mon
night and the NW flow aloft does seem somewhat favorable for
precip to form along front, arriving in PB/SE NM around 12Z Tue
AM. This will re-enforce below normal temps and focus best chance
of tstms across the Trans Pecos INVOF front and where upslope is
maximized. Into Wed AM drier post-frontal airmass moves in with
continued coolish temps. Noticeably warmer/drier Thur/Fri.

HYDROLOGY...
Colorado River at Colorado City has responded to runoff from heavy
rain this AM and has risen to above action stage (12ft). Also Beals
Creek in SW Mitchell Co has rapidly risen to 12ft. In the absence
of additional heavy rain these rises are expected to give way to
falls this evening has this water eventually goes into Lake Spence
over the next day or so.

FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly low end RF wx across the warned area as Carlsbad has just
mixed out and lowest RHs in the GDP Mtns are confined to the
lowest elevations. RFW continues until 8 pm MDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  81  59  81 /  10  10  20  50
Carlsbad                       53  79  59  86 /   0  20  30  40
Dryden                         67  78  66  83 /  30  40  50  40
Fort Stockton                  58  77  64  84 /  20  30  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 52  71  58  81 /  10  20  40  30
Hobbs                          50  78  57  81 /   0  10  30  30
Marfa                          51  75  55  83 /  20  30  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           56  80  62  82 /  10  20  30  40
Odessa                         58  79  62  81 /  10  20  30  40
Wink                           60  80  62  86 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
934
FXUS64 KMAF 192313
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
decrease a little and shift towards the north this evening. Once
the northerly wind shift takes place, winds will become gusty out
of the north to northeast through 12z to 15z Saturday. Winds are
expected to decrease by 18z and shift towards the east and
southeast during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 204 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline has pushed e of MAF with a cold front dropping s thru the
S Plains and a surface low is INVOF nrn CWFA, thus a triple pt is
near the n-ne CWFA. Also an outflow boundary from earlier
convection is INVOF central Glasscock-w Howard-Dawson Co.. After
this mornings convection across the e-ne CWFA the atmosphere is
attempting to recover and there is a brief window for severe
storms e of line from Fluvanna-Big Lake this PM/early evening.
Post-frontal airmass is dry/more stable. FROPA will occur along
I-20 around 03Z and scenario for precip is for mstr to pool along
ern extent of frontal boundary and back build into far se CWFA and
Lower Trans Pecos after 06Z. Sensible wx Sat AM will include
brief windy conditions across the PB and much cooler conditions.
NE winds thru the day and some clouds will keep high temps below
normal as well, any precip chances will be confined to the Lower
Trans Pecos. The chance for precip will increase Sun AM-PM as
return se low level flow develops ahead of damping shrtwv trof.
Again clouds and cool se winds will keep temps below normal Sun
PM. Atmosphere modifies into Mon PM with NW flow aloft and low
probability PoPs will be warranted. A front in the Panhandle Mon
night and the NW flow aloft does seem somewhat favorable for
precip to form along front, arriving in PB/SE NM around 12Z Tue
AM. This will re-enforce below normal temps and focus best chance
of tstms across the Trans Pecos INVOF front and where upslope is
maximized. Into Wed AM drier post-frontal airmass moves in with
continued coolish temps. Noticeably warmer/drier Thur/Fri.

HYDROLOGY...
Colorado River at Colorado City has responded to runoff from heavy
rain this AM and has risen to above action stage (12ft). Also Beals
Creek in SW Mitchell Co has rapidly risen to 12ft. In the absence
of additional heavy rain these rises are expected to give way to
falls this evening has this water eventually goes into Lake Spence
over the next day or so.

FIRE WEATHER...
Mostly low end RF wx across the warned area as Carlsbad has just
mixed out and lowest RHs in the GDP Mtns are confined to the
lowest elevations. RFW continues until 8 pm MDT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  78  58  81 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                       51  80  53  79 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                         69  82  67  78 /  20  20  30  40
Fort Stockton                  57  81  58  77 /  10  10  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 48  74  52  71 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          46  78  50  78 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          47  78  51  75 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           55  80  56  80 /  10  10  10  20
Odessa                         54  80  58  79 /  10   0  10  20
Wink                           55  82  60  80 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
276
FXUS64 KMAF 191739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will become
gusty out of the W/SW this afternoon, with gusts diminishing after
sunset this evening. Tonight, a cold front will move through the
area, with winds expected to gradually veer to the northwest, and
then around to the northeast. Northeasterly winds are then
expected through the end of the period, with gusts to around 20kt
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1023 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

UPDATE...

Please see updated reasoning to forecast changes below.  Thanks!

DISCUSSION...

Convection continues over Scurry and Mitchell counties. Heavy
rainfall is noted with this activity, with road flooding and
high water rescues being reported. These cells have exhibited
training this morning, and MRMS QPE indicates a strip running from
northeastern Midland County (~4") to Howard and Mitchell counties
(>8"). Beals Creek in southeastern Mitchell County rose 7.5" since
4 am this morning (averaging a foot rise per hour). Moss Creek
Lake rose two feet since the convection started early this
morning. At this time, very large values of moisture transport at
850 hPa is noted flowing into these storms, with over 200 g/kg of
flux per the latest NAM.  An overall weakening trend is noted,
however, and convection is beginning to shift eastward toward
Fisher, Jones, and Haskell counties.

We expect convection to exit the area within the next hour. PoP
and Wx grids have been updated to reflect current thinking. We`ve
lowered high temperatures over Scurry, Mitchell, Howard, and
Borden counties two to four degrees due to later start of
insolation as well as evapotranspirative effects. We have adjusted
the winds a bit as well, reflecting reasoning of net westerly flow
and open cell dry convection augmenting turbulent mixing.

Expect another update around midday to take precipitation out of
the gridded forecast database.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Tempo MVFR conditions in thunderstorms are expected at KMAF
through 13z this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24
hours. West winds will increase by mid to late morning at 15 to 25
mph and gusty and continue through sunset. A cold front will push
through the terminals tonight resulting in a wind shift to the
northeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this morning from
the central to northeastern Permian Basin. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch Box # 204 is in effect for portions of the central and
eastern Permian Basin until 9 am CDT. These storms are forming
along a retreating dryline. Impressive upper level divergence
between a southern stream jet and subtropical jet with decent
shear is helping to ignite this activity along with a 40 knot low
level jet located across the eastern Permian Basin. Locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will also be a concern this morning as
training takes place fueled by the low level jet perpendicular to
the dryline. Conditions should improve significantly by this
afternoon as the dryline moves east of the region as westerly flow
increases aloft.

By tonight the associated cold front will move south through the
forecast area. Convergence along the front fueled by additional
jet energy could ignite a few strong to severe thunderstorms
across the extreme eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region.

More thunderstorms are possible this weekend especially from the
southeast Permian Basin south and west to the lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend Region. This will be due to the increasing influence
of the left exit region of the subtropical jet with its embedded
shortwaves. It will be much cooler Saturday and Sunday with much
below normal temperatures expected as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

More thunderstorms are expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Monday and Tuesday, aided by low level moisture
interacting with the persistent upper level jet and its embedded
shortwaves in the west to northwest flow aloft. A northern stream
cold front is also expected to push south Monday night and
Tuesday, providing another focus for precipitation development.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

Precipitation chances should be on the decrease with increasing
temperatures next Wednesday and Thursday as upper ridging
develops over the area.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will issue a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains late this morning through early this
evening. Minimum rh/s are expected to drop to 5 to 15 percent
behind a Pacific front in these areas with breezy 20 foot
westerly winds. Although 20 foot winds will be marginal in the
southeast New Mexico plains, fuels are very dry their.

A cold front will move south tonight with cooler and more moist
conditions expected this weekend. This should help ease fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  78  57  82 /  20  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       50  80  55  82 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         67  81  64  79 /  20  20  40  40
Fort Stockton                  57  81  60  79 /  10  10  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 49  74  54  75 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          46  77  51  80 /  10   0  10  20
Marfa                          46  79  54  77 /   0   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           55  80  57  81 /  10  10  10  20
Odessa                         54  80  57  81 /  10   0  10  20
Wink                           54  82  58  82 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
010
FXUS64 KMAF 191523
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1023 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...

Please see updated reasoning to forecast changes below.  Thanks!

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues over Scurry and Mitchell counties. Heavy
rainfall is noted with this activity, with road flooding and
high water rescues being reported. These cells have exhibited
training this morning, and MRMS QPE indicates a strip running from
northeastern Midland County (~4") to Howard and Mitchell counties
(>8"). Beals Creek in southeastern Mitchell County rose 7.5" since
4 am this morning (averaging a foot rise per hour). Moss Creek
Lake rose two feet since the convection started early this
morning. At this time, very large values of moisture transport at
850 hPa is noted flowing into these storms, with over 200 g/kg of
flux per the latest NAM.  An overall weakening trend is noted,
however, and convection is beginning to shift eastward toward
Fisher, Jones, and Haskell counties.

We expect convection to exit the area within the next hour. PoP
and Wx grids have been updated to reflect current thinking. We`ve
lowered high temperatures over Scurry, Mitchell, Howard, and
Borden counties two to four degrees due to later start of
insolation as well as evapotranspirative effects. We have adjusted
the winds a bit as well, reflecting reasoning of net westerly flow
and open cell dry convection augmenting turbulent mixing.

Expect another update around midday to take precipitation out of
the gridded forecast database.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Tempo MVFR conditions in thunderstorms are expected at KMAF
through 13z this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24
hours. West winds will increase by mid to late morning at 15 to 25
mph and gusty and continue through sunset. A cold front will push
through the terminals tonight resulting in a wind shift to the
northeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this morning from
the central to northeastern Permian Basin. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch Box # 204 is in effect for portions of the central and
eastern Permian Basin until 9 am CDT. These storms are forming
along a retreating dryline. Impressive upper level divergence
between a southern stream jet and subtropical jet with decent
shear is helping to ignite this activity along with a 40 knot low
level jet located across the eastern Permian Basin. Locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will also be a concern this morning as
training takes place fueled by the low level jet perpendicular to
the dryline. Conditions should improve significantly by this
afternoon as the dryline moves east of the region as westerly flow
increases aloft.

By tonight the associated cold front will move south through the
forecast area. Convergence along the front fueled by additional
jet energy could ignite a few strong to severe thunderstorms
across the extreme eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region.

More thunderstorms are possible this weekend especially from the
southeast Permian Basin south and west to the lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend Region. This will be due to the increasing influence
of the left exit region of the subtropical jet with its embedded
shortwaves. It will be much cooler Saturday and Sunday with much
below normal temperatures expected as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

More thunderstorms are expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Monday and Tuesday, aided by low level moisture
interacting with the persistent upper level jet and its embedded
shortwaves in the west to northwest flow aloft. A northern stream
cold front is also expected to push south Monday night and
Tuesday, providing another focus for precipitation development.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

Precipitation chances should be on the decrease with increasing
temperatures next Wednesday and Thursday as upper ridging
develops over the area.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will issue a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains late this morning through early this
evening. Minimum rh/s are expected to drop to 5 to 15 percent
behind a Pacific front in these areas with breezy 20 foot
westerly winds. Although 20 foot winds will be marginal in the
southeast New Mexico plains, fuels are very dry their.

A cold front will move south tonight with cooler and more moist
conditions expected this weekend. This should help ease fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  54  78  57 /  40  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  50  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         97  67  81  64 /   0  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  92  57  81  60 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 78  49  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          84  46  77  51 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                          85  46  79  54 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           93  55  80  57 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  54  80  57 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                           94  54  82  58 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

84/49
728
FXUS64 KMAF 191131
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Tempo MVFR conditions in thunderstorms are expected at KMAF
through 13z this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24
hours. West winds will increase by mid to late morning at 15 to 25
mph and gusty and continue through sunset. A cold front will push
through the terminals tonight resulting in a wind shift to the
northeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this morning from
the central to northeastern Permian Basin. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch Box # 204 is in effect for portions of the central and
eastern Permian Basin until 9 am cdt. These storms are forming
along a retreating dryline. Impressive upper level divergence
between a southern stream jet and subtropical jet with decent
shear is helping to ignite this activity along with a 40 knot low
level jet located across the eastern Permian Basin. Locally heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will also be a concern this morning as
training takes place fueled by the low level jet perpendicular to
the dryline. Conditions should improve significantly by this
afternoon as the dryline moves east of the region as westerly flow
increases aloft.

By tonight the associated cold front will move south through the
forecast area. Convergence along the front fueled by additional
jet energy could ignite a few strong to severe thunderstorms
across the extreme eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region.

More thunderstorms are possible this weekend especially from the
southeast Permian Basin south and west to the lower Trans Pecos
and Big Bend Region. This will be due to the increasing influence
of the left exit region of the subtropical jet with its embedded
shortwaves. It will be much cooler Saturday and Sunday with much
below normal temperatures expected as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

More thunderstorms are expected across west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Monday and Tuesday, aided by low level moisture
interacting with the persistent upper level jet and its embedded
shortwaves in the west to northwest flow aloft. A northern stream
cold front is also expected to push south Monday night and
Tuesday, providing another focus for precipitation development.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

Precipitation chances should be on the decrease with increasing
temperatures next Wednesday and Thursday as upper ridging
develops over the area.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will issue a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains late this morning through early this
evening. Minimum rh/s are expected to drop to 5 to 15 percent
behind a Pacific front in these areas with breezy 20 foot
westerly winds. Although 20 foot winds will be marginal in the
southeast New Mexico plains, fuels are very dry their.

A cold front will move south tonight with cooler and more moist
conditions expected this weekend. This should help ease fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  54  78  57 /  30  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  50  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         97  67  81  64 /  10  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  92  57  81  60 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 78  49  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          84  46  77  51 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                          85  46  79  54 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           93  55  80  57 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  54  80  57 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                           94  54  82  58 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/12
714
FXUS64 KMAF 190818 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
318 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
See public disussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Public products have been updated to add severe thunderstorm watch
# 244 for portions of the central and eastern Permian Basin until
15z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1211 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Any TS that develops
overnight should remain east of all TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline slowly retreating up thru
the lwr Trans Pecos, w/convection trying to develop along this
feature east of the area. However, hi-res models continuing to
show convection developing in the Permian Basin after 06Z. We`ve
let the RFW and HWW expire, and will do a quick update to remove
them from grids and products. We`ll also adjust other parameters
as necessary based on latest obs and forecast data. Updates out
shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another hot and windy afternoon underway as the dryline continues
eastward across the area. This boundary will waffle back and
forth over our region the couple of days bringing chances for
rain mainly for the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Much of W TX and SE NM has not received appreciable rainfall in
over a month and fuels continue to dry. Thus the need for Red Flag
Warnings over a large portion of the CWA. Please see the Fire Wx
section below for more information.

An upper level trough over the Rockies will lift into the Plains in
the coming days. Height falls associated with this system will
pull the dryline back west tonight to near the I-20 corridor. A
shortwave will round the base of the trough overnight helping to
increase large scale lift. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the dryline after midnight and push east. Will follow the
HRRR closest with respect to the position of the dryline since it
did will Tuesday with a similar situation. Some of these storms
will have the potential to be severe given adequate shear and
steep lapse rates. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threat with these storms. The dryline will move east again Friday
with much of our area being the in dry air by afternoon.

A cold front will head south as the upper trough lifts into the
Plains Saturday. A few storms are possible along the boundary Friday
night into Saturday mainly over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Much cooler conditions are expected behind the front
with below normal temperatures lasting through the weekend.

We warm slightly early next week before yet another cold front makes
a run at the area on Tuesday. A few more storms are possible with
this front as well, but widespread precipitation is not looking
likely at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fuel conditions are pretty primed across the area today with the ERC
at the 75th percentile across most of the PB and 90th across the
Trans Pecos. Meanwhile critical fire is largely occurring across the
area too with single digit RHs across much of the Trans Pecos. Winds
are mostly 15-25 mph resulting RFTI of 3-4. RFW will continue until
9 PM CDT/8 PM MDT. Thur fire wx will be a concern again, but winds
will probably be just a little less. 85h winds of 20-22kts may end
up in a narrow corridor from the Upper Trans Pecos into the ne PB,
RH will be no problem. As such most favored area for RF wx will be
GDP Mtns/Upper Trans Pecos, possibly Eddy Co.? However fuels across
the Trans Pecos including BBNP and SE NM are dry enough keeping Sig
Fire Potential at least moderate? For now will issue a fire wx watch
for the GDP Mtns for Fri, but could be expanded to included
Culberson Co, Eddy County plains, most of the Trans Pecos for tmw as
a fuel biased RF could be justified.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     94  54  78  57 /  30  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  50  80  55 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         97  67  81  64 /  10  20  20  40
Fort Stockton                  92  57  81  60 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 78  49  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          84  46  77  51 /   0  10   0  10
Marfa                          85  46  79  54 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           93  55  80  57 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                         92  54  80  57 /  20  10   0  10
Wink                           94  54  82  58 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99
166
FXUS64 KMAF 190511
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1211 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Any TS that develops
overnight should remain east of all TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline slowly retreating up thru
the lwr Trans Pecos, w/convection trying to develop along this
feature east of the area. However, hi-res models continuing to
show convection developing in the Permian Basin after 06Z. We`ve
let the RFW and HWW expire, and will do a quick update to remove
them from grids and products. We`ll also adjust other parameters
as necessary based on latest obs and forecast data. Updates out
shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another hot and windy afternoon underway as the dryline continues
eastward across the area. This boundary will waffle back and
forth over our region the couple of days bringing chances for
rain mainly for the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Much of W TX and SE NM has not received appreciable rainfall in
over a month and fuels continue to dry. Thus the need for Red Flag
Warnings over a large portion of the CWA. Please see the Fire Wx
section below for more information.

An upper level trough over the Rockies will lift into the Plains in
the coming days. Height falls associated with this system will
pull the dryline back west tonight to near the I-20 corridor. A
shortwave will round the base of the trough overnight helping to
increase large scale lift. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the dryline after midnight and push east. Will follow the
HRRR closest with respect to the position of the dryline since it
did will Tuesday with a similar situation. Some of these storms
will have the potential to be severe given adequate shear and
steep lapse rates. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threat with these storms. The dryline will move east again Friday
with much of our area being the in dry air by afternoon.

A cold front will head south as the upper trough lifts into the
Plains Saturday. A few storms are possible along the boundary Friday
night into Saturday mainly over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Much cooler conditions are expected behind the front
with below normal temperatures lasting through the weekend.

We warm slightly early next week before yet another cold front makes
a run at the area on Tuesday. A few more storms are possible with
this front as well, but widespread precipitation is not looking
likely at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fuel conditions are pretty primed across the area today with the ERC
at the 75th percentile across most of the PB and 90th across the
Trans Pecos. Meanwhile critical fire is largely occurring across the
area too with single digit RHs across much of the Trans Pecos. Winds
are mostly 15-25 mph resulting RFTI of 3-4. RFW will continue until
9 PM CDT/8 PM MDT. Thur fire wx will be a concern again, but winds
will probably be just a little less. 85h winds of 20-22kts may end
up in a narrow corridor from the Upper Trans Pecos into the ne PB,
RH will be no problem. As such most favored area for RF wx will be
GDP Mtns/Upper Trans Pecos, possibly Eddy Co.? However fuels across
the Trans Pecos including BBNP and SE NM are dry enough keeping Sig
Fire Potential at least moderate? For now will issue a fire wx watch
for the GDP Mtns for Fri, but could be expanded to included
Culberson Co, Eddy County plains, most of the Trans Pecos for tmw as
a fuel biased RF could be justified.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  78  57  82 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       52  81  56  85 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         67  81  64  82 /  30  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  61  81  60  84 /  10  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 52  76  55  79 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          50  78  52  81 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          45  81  51  81 /   0  10  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           57  81  57  83 /  10  20  10  20
Odessa                         57  80  58  83 /  10  10  10  20
Wink                           55  82  58  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Friday through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Friday through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
623
FXUS64 KMAF 190228
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
928 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc analysis shows the dryline slowly retreating up thru
the lwr Trans Pecos, w/convection trying to develop along this
feature east of the area. However, hi-res models continuing to
show convection developing in the Permian Basin after 06Z. We`ve
let the RFW and HWW expire, and will do a quick update to remove
them from grids and products. We`ll also adjust other parameters
as necessary based on latest obs and forecast data. Updates out
shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
weaken this evening and become variable. Winds will intensify out
of the west late Friday morning. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms tonight for MAF and FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another hot and windy afternoon underway as the dryline continues
eastward across the area. This boundary will waffle back and
forth over our region the couple of days bringing chances for
rain mainly for the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Much of W TX and SE NM has not received appreciable rainfall in
over a month and fuels continue to dry. Thus the need for Red Flag
Warnings over a large portion of the CWA. Please see the Fire Wx
section below for more information.

An upper level trough over the Rockies will lift into the Plains in
the coming days. Height falls associated with this system will
pull the dryline back west tonight to near the I-20 corridor. A
shortwave will round the base of the trough overnight helping to
increase large scale lift. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the dryline after midnight and push east. Will follow the
HRRR closest with respect to the position of the dryline since it
did will Tuesday with a similar situation. Some of these storms
will have the potential to be severe given adequate shear and
steep lapse rates. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threat with these storms. The dryline will move east again Friday
with much of our area being the in dry air by afternoon.

A cold front will head south as the upper trough lifts into the
Plains Saturday. A few storms are possible along the boundary Friday
night into Saturday mainly over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Much cooler conditions are expected behind the front
with below normal temperatures lasting through the weekend.

We warm slightly early next week before yet another cold front makes
a run at the area on Tuesday. A few more storms are possible with
this front as well, but widespread precipitation is not looking
likely at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fuel conditions are pretty primed across the area today with the ERC
at the 75th percentile across most of the PB and 90th across the
Trans Pecos. Meanwhile critical fire is largely occurring across the
area too with single digit RHs across much of the Trans Pecos. Winds
are mostly 15-25 mph resulting RFTI of 3-4. RFW will continue until
9 PM CDT/8 PM MDT. Thur fire wx will be a concern again, but winds
will probably be just a little less. 85h winds of 20-22kts may end
up in a narrow corridor from the Upper Trans Pecos into the ne PB,
RH will be no problem. As such most favored area for RF wx will be
GDP Mtns/Upper Trans Pecos, possibly Eddy Co.? However fuels across
the Trans Pecos including BBNP and SE NM are dry enough keeping Sig
Fire Potential at least moderate? For now will issue a fire wx watch
for the GDP Mtns for Fri, but could be expanded to included
Culberson Co, Eddy County plains, most of the Trans Pecos for tmw as
a fuel biased RF could be justified.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  91  58  78 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       58  85  52  81 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         72  94  67  81 /  10  10  30  40
Fort Stockton                  66  92  61  81 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 57  76  52  76 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  83  50  78 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          55  84  45  81 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           63  92  57  81 /  20  10  10  20
Odessa                         65  90  57  80 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           58  89  55  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/44
665
FXUS64 KMAF 182317
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
weaken this evening and become variable. Winds will intensify out
of the west late Friday morning. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms tonight for MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another hot and windy afternoon underway as the dryline continues
eastward across the area. This boundary will waffle back and
forth over our region the couple of days bringing chances for
rain mainly for the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Much of W TX and SE NM has not received appreciable rainfall in
over a month and fuels continue to dry. Thus the need for Red Flag
Warnings over a large portion of the CWA. Please see the Fire Wx
section below for more information.

An upper level trough over the Rockies will lift into the Plains in
the coming days. Height falls associated with this system will
pull the dryline back west tonight to near the I-20 corridor. A
shortwave will round the base of the trough overnight helping to
increase large scale lift. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the dryline after midnight and push east. Will follow the
HRRR closest with respect to the position of the dryline since it
did will Tuesday with a similar situation. Some of these storms
will have the potential to be severe given adequate shear and
steep lapse rates. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threat with these storms. The dryline will move east again Friday
with much of our area being the in dry air by afternoon.

A cold front will head south as the upper trough lifts into the
Plains Saturday. A few storms are possible along the boundary Friday
night into Saturday mainly over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos. Much cooler conditions are expected behind the front
with below normal temperatures lasting through the weekend.

We warm slightly early next week before yet another cold front makes
a run at the area on Tuesday. A few more storms are possible with
this front as well, but widespread precipitation is not looking
likely at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fuel conditions are pretty primed across the area today with the ERC
at the 75th percentile across most of the PB and 90th across the
Trans Pecos. Meanwhile critical fire is largely occurring across the
area too with single digit RHs across much of the Trans Pecos. Winds
are mostly 15-25 mph resulting RFTI of 3-4. RFW will continue until
9 PM CDT/8 PM MDT. Thur fire wx will be a concern again, but winds
will probably be just a little less. 85h winds of 20-22kts may end
up in a narrow corridor from the Upper Trans Pecos into the ne PB,
RH will be no problem. As such most favored area for RF wx will be
GDP Mtns/Upper Trans Pecos, possibly Eddy Co.? However fuels across
the Trans Pecos including BBNP and SE NM are dry enough keeping Sig
Fire Potential at least moderate? For now will issue a fire wx watch
for the GDP Mtns for Fri, but could be expanded to included
Culberson Co, Eddy County plains, most of the Trans Pecos for tmw as
a fuel biased RF could be justified.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     65  91  58  78 /  40  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       57  85  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  94  67  81 /  20  10  30  40
Fort Stockton                  65  92  61  81 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 56  76  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          54  83  50  78 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          48  84  45  81 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           64  92  57  81 /  30  10  10  20
Odessa                         64  90  57  80 /  20  10  10  10
Wink                           58  89  55  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
436
FXUS64 KMAF 181732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
The dryline has moved e of MAF and westerly winds will prevail at
all TAFs into the night. Exception will be MAF as the dryline
retreats to the w of MAF around 05Z tonight. In the meantime
sustained winds of near 20kts are expected, less so at FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 546 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Will carry temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF between 18/12Z and
18/14Z, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all area
terminals today and tonight.  Southwest winds will increase and
become gusty by afternoon, then decrease this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

An upper level storm system centered in the Intermountain West
will slowly move east through the Rockies today and Friday and
into the northern Plains Saturday. Large scale lift generated from
ejecting disturbances within the associated upper level jet will
interact with with a meandering dryline to bring a slight chance
to a chance of thunderstorms to the central and eastern Portions
of the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos of west Texas late
today, tonight and Friday. Thunderstorms chances will continue
Friday night and Saturday across the aforementioned areas as the
cold front interacts with additional disturbances and the upper
jet. Not expecting major severe weather with this system as the
best moisture and instability should remain north and east of the
forecast area. There still could be a few strong to severe storms
across the extreme eastern Permian Basin where the better moisture
and instability will reside. Temperatures by Saturday and Sunday
will be much cooler and below normal behind the cold front.

Unsettled weather with mainly below normal temperatures is expected
to continue across west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday through
the middle of next week as low level moisture persists underneath
a southern stream jet in an unstable west to northwesterly flow
aloft regime.

FIRE WEATHER...

Westerly flow aloft will continue over the region today with high
temperatures around 5 degrees above normal, and minimum RHs of 5-15%
expected areawide. Since fire danger will be high to very high,
and 20 foot southwesterly winds will be 20-25 mph sustained along
and west of a Lamesa to Midland to Alpine line for several hours,
will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch in these areas to a Red Flag
Warning. Winds will decrease this evening and alleviate fire
weather concerns somewhat, but recovery tonight will be poor
roughly along and west of a Lamesa, Midland, Fort Stockton and Big
Bend line.

It will remain warm Friday with RHs dropping to 5-12% areawide.
However, the flow aloft does not look as strong which could result
in lesser wind speeds in most locations.  If critical fire weather
conditions occur Friday, it may be relegated to the Guadalupe
mountains with near critical conditions over much of the rest of the
higher terrain of SE NM and west Texas.  Recovery Friday night will
be poor over the Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains,
Presidio Valley, and perhaps portions of the Upper Trans Pecos.
However, a cold front will move south through the area Friday and
likely prevent critical conditions through early next week.  There
will also be at least a slight chance of rain in most places from
Saturday through Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  91  59  75 /  20  20  30  30
Carlsbad                       54  85  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  94  68  85 /  20  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  62  92  61  80 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 54  75  54  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  83  51  73 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          48  84  52  81 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           63  91  59  76 /  20  10  20  20
Odessa                         63  90  59  76 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           56  92  57  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$
373
FXUS64 KMAF 181046
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
546 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will carry temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF between 18/12Z and
18/14Z, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail at all area
terminals today and tonight.  Southwest winds will increase and
become gusty by afternoon, then decrease this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

An upper level storm system centered in the Intermountain West
will slowly move east through the Rockies today and Friday and
into the northern Plains Saturday. Large scale lift generated from
ejecting disturbances within the associated upper level jet will
interact with with a meandering dryline to bring a slight chance
to a chance of thunderstorms to the central and eastern Portions
of the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos of west Texas late
today, tonight and Friday. Thunderstorms chances will continue
Friday night and Saturday across the aforementioned areas as the
cold front interacts with additional disturbances and the upper
jet. Not expecting major severe weather with this system as the
best moisture and instability should remain north and east of the
forecast area. There still could be a few strong to severe storms
across the extreme eastern Permian Basin where the better moisture
and instability will reside. Temperatures by Saturday and Sunday
will be much cooler and below normal behind the cold front.

Unsettled weather with mainly below normal temperatures is expected
to continue across west Texas and southeast New Mexico Sunday through
the middle of next week as low level moisture persists underneath
a southern stream jet in an unstable west to northwesterly flow
aloft regime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Westerly flow aloft will continue over the region today with high
temperatures around 5 degrees above normal, and minimum RHs of 5-15%
expected areawide.  Since fire danger will be high to very high, and
20 foot southwesterly winds will be 20-25 mph sustained along and
west of a Lamesa to Midland to Alpine line for several hours, will
upgrade the Fire Weather Watch in these areas to a Red Flag Warning.
 Winds will decrease this evening and alleviate fire weather
concerns somewhat, but recovery tonight will be poor roughly along
and west of a Lamesa, Midland, Fort Stockton and Big Bend line.

It will remain warm Friday with RHs dropping to 5-12% areawide.
However, the flow aloft does not look as strong which could result
in lesser wind speeds in most locations.  If critical fire weather
conditions occur Friday, it may be relegated to the Guadalupe
mountains with near critical conditions over much of the rest of the
higher terrain of SE NM and west Texas.  Recovery Friday night will
be poor over the Van Horn area, Marfa Plateau, Davis Mountains,
Presidio Valley, and perhaps portions of the Upper Trans Pecos.
However, a cold front will move south through the area Friday and
likely prevent critical conditions through early next week.  There
will also be at least a slight chance of rain in most places from
Saturday through Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  63  91  59 /  10  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       89  54  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         95  71  94  68 /   0  20  10  30
Fort Stockton                  95  62  92  61 /   0  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 77  54  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          86  52  83  51 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          86  48  84  52 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           94  63  91  59 /   0  20  10  20
Odessa                         92  63  90  59 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                           93  56  92  57 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-
     Loving-Martin-Midland-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

67/12
080
FXUS64 KMAF 180501
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Aside from a brief period of MVFR ceilings affecting KMAF
between18/12Z and 18/14Z, VFR conditions will prevail areawide
today and tonight.  Southwest winds will increase and become
gusty this morning, persist through the afternoon, then decrease
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  93  62  90 /   0  10  30  20
Carlsbad                       59  89  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         68  95  69  92 /   0  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  95  63  92 /   0   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 57  77  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          58  86  57  83 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          53  86  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           64  94  62  91 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                         64  92  60  90 /   0   0  20  10
Wink                           59  93  60  89 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 9 AM MDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday through
     Thursday evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Martin-
     Midland-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
379
FXUS64 KMAF 172342
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
642 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty southwest winds will diminish after sunset this evening,
with speeds generally around 12kt or less expected overnight. The
gusty winds will return by mid to late morning Thursday, with
gusts to 20-25kt expected through the afternoon. VFR conditions
will prevail through the forecast period, and while there may be
some low clouds toward daybreak, these clouds are progged to
remain just east of MAF, thus have not included mention at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A very nice afternoon is underway behind a Pacific front that moved
through the region last night. Temperatures have warmed to near
normal while winds remain gusty out of the west, especially
across SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains. The Red Flag Warning
will continue across these locations. Even though today is quiet,
our active weather pattern will continue with storms back in the
forecast to round out the week.

Another storm system currently developing over the Rockies will
deepen before lifting into the Plains on Friday. The dryline will
waffle back and forth the next couple of days due to daytime mixing
and height falls associated with this system. Even though the
dryline moves to near the I-20 corridor Thursday morning, it will
quickly get shoved east. Strong winds will develop again behind the
boundary, especially in the Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will likely
near high wind criteria much of the afternoon, but will forego a
watch/warning since conditions are very borderline. The dryline
will surge back west Thursday night to near the I-20 corridor once
again. Storms will likely develop along the dryline during this
time as large scale ascent arrives. The eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos will have the best shot for precipitation. These
storms will have the potential to become severe with large hail
and damaging winds being the main threat.

Friday looks mostly dry and warm ahead of a cold front that arrives
Saturday morning. Even though temperatures will fall back below
normal, the air mass doesn`t look as cool as it did a couple of days
ago. We could see a few showers and storms along and behind the
front as moisture pools near the boundary. Temperatures warm back to
near normal early next week before yet another cold front arrives
midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm... dry... and windy conditions will continue this
afternoon and evening.  Similar conditions expected Thursday. Very
dry conditions are expected both days with minimum RH into the
single digits across most of the region. Gusty 20ft winds out of the
W to SW wind will continue this afternoon... drop off some
overnight... then return on Thursday. This will combine with very
high fire danger to produce critical fire wx conditions from the SE
NM plains southward to the Davis Mtns today... a Red Flag Warning
remains in effect.  The same area plus the Western Permian Basin may
have critical fire wx conditions tomorrow... a Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  93  62  90 /  10  10  30  20
Carlsbad                       59  89  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         66  95  69  92 /   0  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  62  95  63  92 /   0   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  77  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          56  86  57  83 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          46  86  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  94  62  91 /  10  10  20  10
Odessa                         61  92  60  90 /   0   0  20  10
Wink                           59  93  60  89 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
593
FXUS64 KMAF 171740
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1240 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty W to SW wind will continue through the afternoon before
dropping off this evening. Wind will pick up again Thursday out of
the SW. VFR with clear skies today into tonight... low clouds may
approach MAF Thursday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

A quiet Wednesday is expected behind a Pacific cold front with
breezy westerly downslope flow and plenty of sunshine anticipated.
Temperatures will fall back to more normal values this afternoon
and tonight as an upper level storm system continues to move away
from the region.

The quiet weather will be short lived as the next Pacific storm
system slowly digs through the northern and central Rockies
Thursday and Friday and then translates northeastward into the
northern Plains Saturday. Large scale lift generated from upper
level disturbances rotating around the upper level low will
interact with with a meandering dryline and Pacific front to
bring a chance of thunderstorms to mainly west Texas late
Wednesday through Saturday. Below normal temperatures are expected
by Saturday and Sunday as the front finally moves through the
region.

Unsettled weather with mainly below normal temperatures is
expected to continue across portions of west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Sunday through early next week as low level moisture
persists underneath a weak southern stream jet ejecting upper
level disturbances into the forecast area.

FIRE WEATHER...

Westerly winds will pick up this morning and become gusty, which
will reinforce dry air over the region and aid temperatures warming
to normal or slightly above.  Minimum RHs will drop to 5-10%
areawide this afternoon as a result.  Critical fire weather
conditions are expected to occur along and west of a Tatum to Hobbs
to Pecos to Alpine line where 20 foot wind speeds will rise to 20-25
mph sustained for several hours from late this morning through the
afternoon.  westerly winds will decrease this evening and alleviate
critical conditions, but locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Crane to Sanderson to Big Bend line will have poor recovery tonight.

Westerly flow aloft will persist Thursday, which will help
temperatures warm around 5 degrees above normal.  Minimum RHs
Thursday afternoon will drop to 5-15%, which will set the table for
critical fire weather conditions along and west of a Lamesa to
Midland to Alpine line where 20 foot winds could surpass 20 mph
sustained for several hours.  Will issue a Fire weather Watch for
Thursday from 18/15Z to 19/02Z.   Recovery will be poor again over
the higher terrain, but low level moisture may return to most of the
rest of the area.  A cold front could move into the area Friday
night and saturday and alleviate fire weather concerns through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  94  62  89 /  10  10  40  30
Carlsbad                       52  87  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         67  97  68  95 /   0  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  59  95  63  90 /   0   0  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 56  78  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  86  54  83 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          45  87  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  93  62  89 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                         62  92  62  87 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                           55  92  58  91 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
988
FXUS64 KMAF 171042
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and tonight.
 West winds will increase and become gusty, but will diminish after
18/01Z and back to the south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017/

A quiet Wednesday is expected behind a Pacific cold front with
breezy westerly downslope flow and plenty of sunshine anticipated.
Temperatures will fall back to more normal values this afternoon
and tonight as an upper level storm system continues to move away
from the region.

The quiet weather will be short lived as the next Pacific storm
system slowly digs through the northern and central Rockies
Thursday and Friday and then translates northeastward into the
northern Plains Saturday. Large scale lift generated from upper
level disturbances rotating around the upper level low will
interact with with a meandering dryline and Pacific front to
bring a chance of thunderstorms to mainly west Texas late
Wednesday through Saturday. Below normal temperatures are expected
by Saturday and Sunday as the front finally moves through the
region.

Unsettled weather with mainly below normal temperatures is
expected to continue across portions of west Texas and southeast
New Mexico Sunday through early next week as low level moisture
persists underneath a weak southern stream jet ejecting upper
level disturbances into the forecast area.

FIRE WEATHER...

Westerly winds will pick up this morning and become gusty, which
will reinforce dry air over the region and aid temperatures warming
to normal or slightly above.  Minimum RHs will drop to 5-10%
areawide this afternoon as a result.  Critical fire weather
conditions are expected to occur along and west of a Tatum to Hobbs
to Pecos to Alpine line where 20 foot wind speeds will rise to 20-25
mph sustained for several hours from late this morning through the
afternoon.  westerly winds will decrease this evening and alleviate
critical conditions, but locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Crane to Sanderson to Big Bend line will have poor recovery tonight.

Westerly flow aloft will persist Thursday, which will help
temperatures warm around 5 degrees above normal.  Minimum RHs
Thursday afternoon will drop to 5-15%, which will set the table for
critical fire weather conditions along and west of a Lamesa to
Midland to Alpine line where 20 foot winds could surpass 20 mph
sustained for several hours.  Will issue a Fire weather Watch for
Thursday from 18/15Z to 19/02Z.   Recovery will be poor again over
the higher terrain, but low level moisture may return to most of the
rest of the area.  A cold front could move into the area Friday
night and saturday and alleviate fire weather concerns through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  62  94  62 /   0  10  10  40
Carlsbad                       90  52  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         95  67  97  68 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  89  59  95  63 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 78  56  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          84  52  86  54 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          83  45  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           88  61  93  62 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         87  62  92  62 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           89  55  92  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-
     Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Martin-Midland-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/
684
FXUS64 KMAF 170451
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1151 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel most of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms continue to move eastward, but are lingering over
Reagan, Pecos and Terrell counties, so the Watch will continue in
these areas for another hour or two. Will cancel the rest of
Severe thunderstorm Watch 226 though.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1126 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

UPDATE...

Severe thunderstorm Watch 226 continues, but will likely be
cancelled by midnight CDT.  Sending an update to consolidate the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and the Wind
Advisory for the western half of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION...

A line of severe thunderstorms from near Colorado City to near
Texon in Reagan County will push east out of the forecast area
likely in the next hour.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226 will
continue until that time, but the rest of it will likely be
cancelled at that time.

Farther west, good surface pressure rises of 1mb/hr look to
persist for a few more hours so have extended the Wind Advisory
from SE NM, south through the Big Bend region until 400 am CDT,
and the High Wind Warning in the Guadalupe Mountains until the
same time. Some of these locations may drop off a little sooner,
but will reassess and likely address with the regularly scheduled
issuance later tonight.

Lowered Pops over the Permian Basin after 17/06Z since the
likelihood of redevelopment after the line of thunderstorms moves
east of the region is slim to none.  An update will follow
shortly for these changes.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Pac front/westerly flow
will keep the dryline well east of the terminals, w/a few high
clouds. Convective temps will be too warm for cu development Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  88  64  94 /  10   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       54  86  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  91  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  57  91  62  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  83  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  83  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  93 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  92 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           55  88  54  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for Big Bend
     Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
157
FXUS64 KMAF 170426
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1126 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...

Severe thunderstorm Watch 226 continues, but will likely be
cancelled by midnight CDT.  Sending an update to consolidate the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains and the Wind
Advisory for the western half of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A line of severe thunderstorms from near Colorado City to near
Texon in Reagan County will push east out of the forecast area
likely in the next hour.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226 will
continue until that time, but the rest of it will likely be
cancelled at that time.

Farther west, good surface pressure rises of 1mb/hr look to
persist for a few more hours so have extended the Wind Advisory
from SE NM, south through the Big Bend region until 400 am CDT,
and the High Wind Warning in the Guadalupe Mountains until the
same time. Some of these locations may drop off a little sooner,
but will reassess and likely address with the regularly scheduled
issuance later tonight.

Lowered Pops over the Permian Basin after 17/06Z since the
likelihood of redevelopment after the line of thunderstorms moves
east of the region is slim to none.  An update will follow
shortly for these changes.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Pac front/westerly flow
will keep the dryline well east of the terminals, w/a few high
clouds. Convective temps will be too warm for cu development Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  88  64  94 /  50   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       54  86  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  91  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  57  91  62  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  83  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  83  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  93 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  92 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           55  88  54  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Wednesday for Big Bend
     Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 170042
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
742 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.UPDATE...Zones have been updated to include Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 226 (expires at 3 am CDT Wednesday)...which covers the
Central and Eastern PB and the Low Rolling Plains. A Pacific Cold
front will intersect a very sharp dryline for the potential for
severe storms. The main threats will be large hail and damaging
winds.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Westerly flow will keep
the dryline at or east of KMAF, w/a few high clouds. Convective
temps will be too warm for cu development Wed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An active weather pattern is expected much of the week with severe
weather, strong winds, fire weather, and even a strong cold front
(for mid May) likely to affect the area. An upper trough
currently to our west will lift northeast into the Plains
overnight. This system has forced the dryline well east into the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. Dry
and windy conditions have developed behind the boundary with high
winds currently being observed in the Guadalupe Mountains. Even
stronger winds are expected this evening behind a Pacific cold
front so have issued a Wind Advisory for western portions of the
area. Red Flag conditions are also present in many locations
behind the dryline. Please see the fire wx discussion below for
more information.

Switching gears, the atmosphere remains capped east of the dryline
which is suppressing any thunderstorm activity at this time. Height
falls associated with the upper trough will act to pull the dryline
back west early this evening to about the central Permian Basin.
At the same time a Pacific cold front will quickly move east
across the area and collide with the dryline. Thunderstorms will
develop along the combined boundary as large scale lift and
cooling aloft arrives. These storms will likely become severe
given favorable deep layer shear, instability, and moisture.
Initially, large hail and maybe even an isolated tornado will be
possible before storm mode quickly transitions to linear with
damaging winds then being the main threat. These storms will shift
east into the Big Country overnight with cooler, drier conditions
behind the cold front.

Temperatures fall to near normal Wednesday with windy conditions
continuing across the Guadalupe Mountains. Another upper trough will
develop over the Rockies late Thursday and become more elongated
late this week to our west. Height falls associated with this
system will again pull the dryline back west late Thursday. Models
disagree with the position of the trough and how far west the
dryline will go. Indications are however, that severe
thunderstorms will develop once again on a retreating dryline
somewhere over the Permian Basin Thursday night. Once the trough
passes, a strong cold front will push across the area Saturday
morning. A few showers and storms will be possible along the front
as the boundary plows into a moist airmass. Much cooler and drier
conditions are expected behind the front this weekend with highs
below normal for a change!

Temperatures warm early next week to near normal before another cold
front makes a run at the area midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are being observed across the western two-
thirds of the region this afternoon as the dryline as moved east.
Rh`s have fallen into the single digits and teens while southwest
winds are around 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. A few
thunderstorms are not out of the question across SE NM this
afternoon and evening. These storms may produce dry lightning and
very gusty winds. Low rh`s will spread across the area again
Wednesday and Thursday, but strong winds will mostly be confined
to the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  88  64  94 /  50   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       54  86  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  91  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  57  91  62  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  83  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  83  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  93 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  92 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           55  88  54  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Loving-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

99/33
453
FXUS64 KMAF 162149
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
449 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Westerly flow will keep
the dryline at or east of KMAF, w/a few high clouds. Convective
temps will be too warm for cu development Wed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

An active weather pattern is expected much of the week with severe
weather, strong winds, fire weather, and even a strong cold front
(for mid May) likely to affect the area. An upper trough
currently to our west will lift northeast into the Plains
overnight. This system has forced the dryline well east into the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon. Dry
and windy conditions have developed behind the boundary with high
winds currently being observed in the Guadalupe Mountains. Even
stronger winds are expected this evening behind a Pacific cold
front so have issued a Wind Advisory for western portions of the
area. Red Flag conditions are also present in many locations
behind the dryline. Please see the fire wx discussion below for
more information.

Switching gears, the atmosphere remains capped east of the dryline
which is suppressing any thunderstorm activity at this time. Height
falls associated with the upper trough will act to pull the dryline
back west early this evening to about the central Permian Basin.
At the same time a Pacific cold front will quickly move east
across the area and collide with the dryline. Thunderstorms will
develop along the combined boundary as large scale lift and
cooling aloft arrives. These storms will likely become severe
given favorable deep layer shear, instability, and moisture.
Initially, large hail and maybe even an isolated tornado will be
possible before storm mode quickly transitions to linear with
damaging winds then being the main threat. These storms will shift
east into the Big Country overnight with cooler, drier conditions
behind the cold front.

Temperatures fall to near normal Wednesday with windy conditions
continuing across the Guadalupe Mountains. Another upper trough will
develop over the Rockies late Thursday and become more elongated
late this week to our west. Height falls associated with this
system will again pull the dryline back west late Thursday. Models
disagree with the position of the trough and how far west the
dryline will go. Indications are however, that severe
thunderstorms will develop once again on a retreating dryline
somewhere over the Permian Basin Thursday night. Once the trough
passes, a strong cold front will push across the area Saturday
morning. A few showers and storms will be possible along the front
as the boundary plows into a moist airmass. Much cooler and drier
conditions are expected behind the front this weekend with highs
below normal for a change!

Temperatures warm early next week to near normal before another cold
front makes a run at the area midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are being observed across the western two-
thirds of the region this afternoon as the dryline as moved east.
Rh`s have fallen into the single digits and teens while southwest
winds are around 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. A few
thunderstorms are not out of the question across SE NM this
afternoon and evening. These storms may produce dry lightning and
very gusty winds. Low rh`s will spread across the area again
Wednesday and Thursday, but strong winds will mostly be confined
to the Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  88  64  94 /  50   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       54  86  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         61  91  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  57  91  62  95 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  77  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  83  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          46  83  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  87  61  93 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         57  87  61  92 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           55  88  54  92 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM CDT Wednesday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

     High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Loving-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

44/84/44

  • National Weather Service
  • Southern Region Headquarters
  • 819 Taylor Street, Room 10A06
  • Fort Worth, TX 76102
  • Page Author: NWS Fort Worth
  • Web Master: SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov
  •  
  • Page last modified: 30-Sep-2016 6:36 PM UTC
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