Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 091115

615 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions and light winds through the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2014/

Clear skies and light winds will continue to allow for good radiational
cooling this morning, with temperatures across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico in the 40s and 50s as of 08Z. A developing
lee surface trough today will promote warmer than normal
temperatures in the 80s and 90s. Winds will become breezy later
this morning as the trough`s associated surface pressure gradient
tightens. Northwest flow aloft flatten to a more zonal pattern
tonight, allowing warm and dry conditions persist through the
weekend. Conditional fire weather concerns will exist across the
area as a result of these conditions. The big forecast question,
however, will be if winds reach critical thresholds over the next
few days. Despite forecast soundings indicating deep mixing of the
atmosphere (to around 700 mb) during the afternoon hours over the
next few days, winds aloft appear relatively weak. More
information is in the fire weather discussion below.

Main concerns for the upcoming weekend involve the passage of an
upper level system arriving into our area Sunday. As this system
moves across Texas, a strong cold front dives south into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Models are coming into
better agreement regarding the system. The GFS, odd man out on
previous model runs, had been advertising much-needed rain chances
ahead of this front across the Permian Basin. However, the latest
00z run has come more in line with the ECMWF and Canadian models.
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico look to miss out on rain, with
precipitation shunted farther eastward towards west and north
central Texas. This solution makes sense given the meager moisture
over the area (PWATs ranging from 0.25-0.5 inches on Sunday afternoon) and
better jet dynamics farther east. Consequently, no changes were
made to the previous dry forecast for this weekend.

Expect a much cooler (and breezy) start to next week behind the
Canadian front with Monday`s lows in the 30s and 40s. Freezing
temperatures are not currently in the forecast but anyone with
planting interests will want to keep up with the forecast for
changes. Weak shortwave ridging builds across the area Tuesday behind
the weekend system, allowing temperatures to rebound to near or
slightly above seasonal normals by mid-week.

Westerly mid level flow will keep very dry air in the area through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Minimum afternoon
humidities will drop into the single digits for a large portion of
the area, but the limiting factor for critical fire weather
conditions will be wind speeds. Winds will remain below 20 mph
despite strong afternoon heating for all areas except the Guadalupe
Mountains which are expected to become windy on Thursday. Have
issued a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday, mainly in the higher
elevations and this will continue to be the area to watch the next
several days. The lower elevations should not see wind speeds exceed
20 mph, however relative humidities dropping below 5 percent in some
locations will mean there will be an elevated fire weather danger
for all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas, and outdoor burning
is discouraged.


NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.



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