Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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270
FXUS64 KMAF 241115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
615 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
become elevated and gusty out of the west beginning around 15z and
will weaken just after 00z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough extending from SE WY to south of
the Big Bend.  Ahead of this feature, a sfc trough extends from
western SD into NM, and has resulted in a 50kt LLJ over West Texas,
as per KMAF VAD.  This return flow has advected plenty of Gulf
moisture into the region, w/sfc dewpoints in the 50s as far west as
KATS/KCNM, but this will change rapidly over the next 8-12 hours as
the leeside sfc trough develops south, veering sfc flow over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico to SW-W.  This will shunt the dryline
and accompanying low-lvl moisture east, w/downslope warming
assisting the thermal ridge in bestowing upon us our warmest temps
yet this Spring.  Needless to say, this will be the first of a few
days of critical fire weather for parts of the region.  Please see
the Fire Wx Discussion below for more details.  MOS guidance for
KGDP is suggesting high winds through the Pass today thru this
evening, but the forecast H7 gradient does not look sufficiently
tight, nor does the NAM mtn wave signature look particularly
impressive.  Forecast soundings mix to 650mb at best, but winds thru
that height in the column do not look favorable either.  Thus, we`ll
keep winds just under warning criteria.

Today`s trough will continue moving east into the late afternoon,
while a secondary trough makes landfall in the PacNW, then digs to
the NV/UT border by 00Z Tuesday, transitioning zonal flow aloft to
SW.  The low-lvl thermal ridge is not forecast to move much,
yielding afternoon temps similar to today`s.  Tuesday, the upper
trough is forecast to tilt negatively, to WY by 00Z Wednesday. The
thermal ridge is forecast to shift east as a weak Pac front moves
in, resulting in slightly cooler temps than Monday.  Forecast
soundings mix to H7 or better Tuesday afternoon, where 35-45kt SW
flow rounding the base of the trough will make for a breezy
afternoon.  This pattern looks more favorable for high winds in the
Guadalupes, and we`ll go ahead and put a High Wind Watch out for
Tuesday.  Wind advisories may be needed, as well.  Westerly flow
will sharpen up a dryline and push is east Tuesday afternoon, but
models suggest some isolated convection will be possible over the
far eastern zones Tuesday evening as it begins to retreat.

As the secondary trough ejects NE into the upper Midwest, a third
trough will dig down the west coast Wednesday, arriving over the SW
CONUS by Thursday.  This will once again put West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft.  Return flow will drive
the dryline west to mid-CWA, and this will open up a window of
opportunity for convection east of the dryline as the trough
approaches.  Models are all over the place by this point, but Thu-
Sat looks like the best chances for some rain, at least for the
east.

FIRE WEATHER...

The base of an upper level trough will be over the area today
allowing for stronger winds aloft to mix downward to the surface.  A
dryline will be east of the area with dry, low RH values across the
CWA this afternoon.  Winds will be at least 20 mph for western
sections of the CWA and may briefly reach 20 mph eastward into parts
of the Permian Basin.  A Red Flag Warning remains in effect this
afternoon through early evening for the southeast New Mexico plains,
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor,
and the Upper Trans Pecos.  There is fire weather potential tomorrow
as well with minimum RH values of 15 percent or less areawide and
gusty winds.  The winds will be slightly weaker than today across
portions of the area but are still expected to reach 20 mph for
locations west of the Upper Trans Pecos.  Therefore, a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Monday afternoon into early evening for
the southeast New Mexico plains, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.  The base of a more powerful upper
trough will pass over the area on Tuesday leading to very windy
conditions.  Minimum RH values of 15 percent or less will again be
present areawide on Tuesday and winds will be over 20 mph across
most of the CWA.  A Fire Weather Watch will likely be issued on a
later shift for Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       90  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         94  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  91  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 81  54  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          86  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          81  44  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           92  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           93  59  93  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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