Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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040
FXUS64 KMAF 190549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1249 AM CDT Tue May 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue tonight, and while the bulk of
activity has shifted east of area terminals, high-resolution
guidance indicates the potential for additional development across
SE NM late tonight which would move east across northern portions
of the area, impacting KPEQ, KINK, and KMAF toward daybreak. Have
included TEMPOs to account for associated SHRA/TSRA, and will
continue to monitor tonight. Other concern is for low-end MVFR/IFR
fog and low ceiling development late tonight lasting through
early Tuesday morning. Any low ceilings that develop should
gradually improve to VFR by late Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
breezy southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 PM CDT Mon May 18 2015/

UPDATE...

Have updated the forecast to drop mention of the severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned a bit over the Permian Basin but
redevelopment is expected as warm upglide gins up further storms.
With all the outflow boundaries around, it`s hard to say where,
but the southern portions of the Basin stand to get the best shot
of precip overnight. Heavy rainfall is still indicated, and a
flash flood watch remains in effect until Tuesday afternoon for
the upper Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, and western Low Rolling
Plains portions of west Texas, and all of southeastern New Mexico.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/72

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