Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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194
FXUS64 KMAF 211754
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Dense fog and low clouds are expected to redevelop later this
evening after 02z. LIFR to IFR conditions with low clouds and fog are
expected at all TAF sites except KCNM and KFST which should
experience slightly better conditions. The approach of an upper
level storm system will result in a chance for showers and
thunderstorms overnight and Saturday morning mainly across the
central and eastern portions of the Permian Basin and portions of
the Trans Pecos Region.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the next
couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of
thunderstorms (good chance to likely) will be across the eastern
Permian Basin. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture
for the longest period of time. Some of these storms could be
strong, producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given
elevated capes of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse
rates, cold air aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation
chances will begin to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system
pushes east toward west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

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