Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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942
FXUS64 KMAF 291744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Southwest
winds will remain gusty through early evening, with gusts to 30 to
35KT possible. Gusts will diminish after sunset, with wind speeds
remaining generally 12KT or less thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A potent upper level low pressure system across the Four Corners
Region will move east onto the western High Plains by late this
afternoon. As this occurs westerly flow through the column will
rapidly push drier air east of the area this morning. Will include a
pre first period slight chance for thunderstorms across mainly the
Permian Basin as the dryline surges east. By mid morning windy
conditions are expected areawide due to a decent surface pressure
gradient and deep mixing developing. Decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico for today.
Think the mos guidance is underestimating winds based on surface
gradient progged and contributions of stronger winds aloft. Will
continue the High Wind Warning today into this evening for the
Guadalupe Mountains. Went above guidance on high temperatures today
due to strong downslope and clearing skies.

The upper low is forecast to lift slowly northeast into the central
Plains and weaken tonight through Saturday night. This will allow
winds to decrease significantly with mostly clear skies continuing
with near normal temperatures.

Yet another Pacific system is forecast to impact the forecast
area Sunday and Monday. Backing mid level flow along with
increasing large scale lift will draw low level moisture
northwestward from the Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms will once
again be possible across much of the forecast area these days and
will be enhanced by isentropic lift behind a surface cold front and
surface easterly upslope flow behind the boundary. Behind the front
high temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be much below
normal aided by widespread cloudiness and precipitation.

Precipitation chances should decrease significantly behind this
system Tuesday through next Friday as upper level high pressure
builds over the forecast area from the west.  There could be
isolated afternoon thunderstorms on some of these days in the
mountains and possibly portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains
but will not mention at this time that far out. Temperatures will
remain cool Tuesday and Wednesday and then climb to near normal
values by next Thursday and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southeast winds and abundant low level moisture are currently being
seen across the area this morning. An upper level trough will move
across the area today pushing a dryline east and bringing in much
drier air. This combined with gusty west winds will cause Red Flag
conditions from the western Permian Basin, west to the Guadalupe
Mountains. Critical fire weather conditions may be seen farther east
but this area was not included in the Red Flag Warning due to
abundant moisture in the fuels. Isolated thunderstorms may develop
along the dryline as it moves east creating the potential for some
lightning starts.

Saturday the dry air will remain across the area but lighter winds
will diminish the fire weather threat everywhere except the
Guadalupe Mountains. Breezy conditions will remain in the mountains
may create critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon and a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Moisture increases Sunday with
widespread rainfall possible which should end the fire weather
threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  80  52  69 /  10   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       49  82  50  63 /   0  10  10  30
Dryden                         59  90  62  84 /  10   0  10  40
Fort Stockton                  54  86  56  77 /   0   0  10  40
Guadalupe Pass                 49  73  47  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          46  77  47  63 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          39  77  44  79 /   0  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           53  84  54  71 /  10   0  10  30
Odessa                         55  83  54  72 /   0   0  10  30
Wink                           51  86  54  73 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Scurry-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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