Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181122

622 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


Light showers and isolated TS are moving across southeast NM this
morning but should have minimal impact at the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected through 06Z with MVFR CIGs arriving at
MAF/HOB/CNM 19/06-12Z. These CIGs will arrive later at the other
TAF sites and have not been included with this issuance.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

A cold front is currently approaching the Rio Grande River and
should pass into Mexico today as surface high pressure builds
south and west into the region through at least Tuesday. This
surface high will be created in the wake of an upper level system
moving from the upper Midwest to the east coast. The surface high
will enhance cool upslope flow in the forecast area with below
normal temperatures and considerable clouds expected through the
period. In the upper levels a weak trough passing through New
Mexico could generate isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwestern Permian Basin.

A stronger southern stream system currently off the west coast
of California is forecast to track across northern Mexico Sunday
through early Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the forecast area, especially across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. The higher guidance pops
and higher QPF output looks most reasonable due to the closed
nature of the upper level system.

By late Tuesday through at least Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms these periods. A slower and
more amplified and moist ECMWF solution is preferred over the GFS
given its recent superior track record. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected to continue.

Kept Friday and Saturday dry for now pending greater confidence in
the eventual track of this upper level system.






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