Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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227
FXUS64 KMAF 301937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of surface boundaries hanging around northern portions of
the region this afternoon with cu developing near these
boundaries in the Central Permian Basin and also Lea county. With
continued heating, could see some isolated convection popping up
at some point across these areas then diminishing after sunset.
Temperatures near a degree or two cooler today than yesterday with
highs generally in the 90s most areas. A subtropical ridge slowly
retrograding overhead today will continue westward through Friday,
becoming somewhat anchored over NM this weekend. Much of the same
expected Friday with highest rain chances remaining north of the
CWA in NM and TX Panhandle. SE NM will remain on the edge of the
monsoonal activity so not entirely sure this area won`t see some
isolated showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening.

Northerly flow aloft develops by Saturday, potentially bringing rain
chances back to the region as upper weaknesses slide around the east
side of the ridge. Through the weekend, highest rain chances will
likely remain across the eastern half of the FA although could see
some afternoon mountain convection as well. Monday and beyond,
forecast guidance differ slightly in the location of the upper ridge
with the GFS keeping it centered over NM and the ECMWF farther
southwest. Either way, models not showing much in the way of QPF so
will continue with a mostly dry forecast other than some potential
for mountain convection each afternoon. Above normal temps will
continue through the forecast period, although not quite as hot as
we have been seeing this last week or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    71  95  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  76 100  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  95  73  98  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  87  68  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  94  69  95  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                       64  88  64  90  /  10   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  98  74  97  /  10   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                      74  98  75  97  /  10   0  10  20
WINK TX                        74  99  74 100  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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