Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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998
FXUS64 KMAF 290604
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
104 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...The MCS dropping south has weakened. Therefore...have
cleared the northern counties in collaboration with SPC from
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #308. Grids have been updated.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1144 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will be light out of mostly the southeast throughout the
period. Generally expect VFR conditions although a few areas may
see ceilings go below VFR for a brief amount of time
overnight/early Wednesday morning. A storm complex approaching the
area may result in gusty northerly winds later overnight for MAF
and perhaps HOB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 932 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...
Grids have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch Box # 308
until 08z Wednesday for Borden, Dawson and Scurry counties of west
Texas.

Also increased pops in those 3 counties in the watch box overnight
and increased qpf grid.

Updated products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms continue to develop this afternoon in a couple of
clusters across our region. The first area is across the higher
terrain and is associated with the weakening upper low that has
moved into northern Mexico. These storms are producing some heavy
rain and should continue to move east into the evening hours. The
other main area of convection appears to be forming along a weak
boundary across the Permian Basin. These storms are moving very
slowly south and with daytime heating should continue to develop.
Some Hi-Res models show a thunderstorm complex forming near
Amarillo this afternoon and part of it moving south toward our
region overnight. Although this is a low probability, it is not
out of the question due to high amounts of moisture and some
instability across the region. Will leave at least some low PoPs
in tonight across the northern half of the area.

The upper ridge will return by midweek as it builds in from the
northwest, though mid level heights won`t be too high. Showers and
storms will stay mostly confined to the mountains tomorrow before
more extensive drying occurs areawide Thursday. The center of the
ridge moves southeast into central and southern Texas late this week
allowing for monsoonal moisture to spread across far West Texas and
New Mexico. Some of this moisture will spread east across the
Permian Basin this weekend so we could see an uptick in showers and
storms just in time for the July 4th holiday. Temperatures will
increase to near normal tomorrow through the end of the week. High
temperature guidance has come down slightly for this weekend, likely
due to increasing moisture. For now will stay on the conservative
side and continue to keep highs mostly in the 90`s to near 100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  90  70 /  10   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       93  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  97  74 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  90  70  94  71 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  66  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          91  66  94  68 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          84  62  87  63 /  30  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           93  70  95  71 /  10   0  10   0
Odessa                         92  71  94  72 /  10   0  10   0
Wink                           93  70  95  72 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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