Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 171742

1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014

See 18Z aviation discussion below.


Showers are diminishing across the area and additional development
will depend on whether skies can clear to provide needed
instability. Given the amount of current cloud cover will leave TS
out of all TAFs for now and amend if needed. MVFR CIGs currently
at HOB will spread to MAF but considerable uncertainty in when
that will occur. Current obs showing SCT016 and this could easily
become BKN within the hour requiring an amendment, though
conditions should improve later this afternoon with another round
of lower CIGS later tonight.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2014/


As expected, a large convective system is rolling across the Red
River Valley this morning with an outflow boundary trailing to its
southwest. This boundary will play a roll in what happens later
today as it will be a focus for convection. It appears the boundary
will settle along or just south of the I-20 corridor by early this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front was sliding south across the TX
PH as an associated shortwave moves into OK. This front will
continue to move south today and likely catch up to the remnant
outflow boundary over our area. Showers and storms will fire along
the front and move southeast within NW flow aloft. Strong heating
south of the front will allow CAPE values to reach in excess of 2500
J/kg. This combined with decent deep layer shear will create a
potential for a few storms to become severe with large hail and
damaging winds. The most favored area for convection will be the
eastern Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

The cold front will push south tonight settling against the higher
terrain. Will maintain a chance for storms along and south of the
Pecos River Friday as upslope flow along with the frontal boundary
provide sufficient lift. Temperatures will cool behind the front and
make for a pleasant July day (except for folks along the Rio Grande
who will remain south of the front). Expect afternoon high temps to
be around 10 degrees below average.

By Saturday, the upper ridge really begins to build in and
strengthen across the area. This means rain chances will diminish
(except for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains) and temperatures will
soar into the upper 90s and triple digits. Depending on where the
center of the ridge sets up, there may be a chance for a disturbance
or two to affect us from the north. Will keep PoPs low for now as
long range models continue to struggle with the strength of the
ridge next week.





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