Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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634
FXUS64 KMAF 130148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
848 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated products for expiration of part of Flash Flood Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the rain has dissipated across the eastern CWA so allowed some
Permian Basin counties to fall off the watch at 01z.  The Flash
Flood Watch remains in effect the rest of the night from Jeff Davis
county northward across SE NM and the Western Permian Basin.  Moderate
to heavy rain currently continues across portions of the Upper
Trans Pecos.  Additional heavy rain is possible tonight across the
west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of rain and rain showers will continue across the area through
the overnight period and diminish in coverage Saturday morning.  Low
visibilities will likely accompany the areas of rain.  Low ceilings
are expected to remain until 18z Saturday before beginning to lift
although some areas may see low clouds all day tomorrow.  The winds
and wind gusts will begin to diminish over the next few hours behind
the front; otherwise, winds will likely remain out of the east to
northeast through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Flooding/Flash flooding event continues with heaviest rain having
fallen across SE NM/Andrews Co.. Rich moisture (PWs around 1.75"),
cold front, and shrtwv trof to w within weak steering flow, and
within a mid level theta-e ridge are all supporting anomalous
precip amounts. It looks like precip will slowly wane into the
evening as more stable post-frontal conditions move in as low
level winds turn ne verses a more moist se wind. Opted to make
some changes to the flash flood watch. The far eastern 1/3 of the
watch will now expire at 01Z while the remainder will go thru 12Z
Sat.

Precip chances will continue to decrease Sat as mid level weakness
fills and as mid level ridging will be more prominent with
drier/more stable surface conditions. Clouds and residual moisture
combined with surface ridging will make for another unseasonably
cool day Sat. After the windy conditions of today there will be
much less wind Sat. Light precip is possible across the w and s
due mainly to warm air advection with se 85h winds. Focus then
turns to the upper low that has moved inland s of Brownsville as
it and assocd shrtwv trof/s are kicked out from it and as theta-e
ridge moves in. As such there will be an increase in PoPs again
starting Sunday across the Lower Trans Pecos/srn PB, only chance
PoPs look appropriate as GFS/ECMWF are farther e with shrtwv trof.
Temps will trend back up, but probably still below normal. Monday
there are some indications that mid level moisture tap will be
available for the Big Bend region as Tropical Storm Odile moves
near Baja along with minor shrtwv trof/s in sly flow. There`s
little confidence now on our part though so we won`t make a bigger
commitment just yet. There is uncertainty with cold front too on
Monday with ECMWF/Canadian much farther s, but it`s at least worth
slght chc/chc PoPs. Broad mid level ridging seems to be the
consensus Tue/Wed with moisture sort of trapped within ridge and
low order PoPs with diurnal heating cycle are appropriate. Ridge
builds further Thur and moisture slowly decreases and will reflect
this trend. Even out at Friday of next week there is good agreement
that a trof will approach and that the mid level ridge is pushed s
with low levels warming per drier wly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  64  57  74  /  60  20   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              53  64  61  78  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  67  56  77  /  60  20   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  67  71  64  84  /  50  50  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  68  59  79  /  60  30  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          46  60  51  68  /  60  20   0  20
HOBBS NM                   50  63  56  73  /  60  20   0  10
MARFA TX                   53  64  52  74  /  70  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  65  59  78  /  50  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  52  66  58  78  /  50  20  10  10
WINK TX                    56  69  58  80  /  70  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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