Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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024
FXUS64 KMAF 302259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through tonight
and Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

Not many changes to current forecast, except to lower temps a bit
in the short-term. WV imagery shows an unusual pattern over West
Texas and Southeast new Mexico, w/a clearly defined trough
circulating south thru Texas and cutting into the upper ridge.
This has allowed for mild temperatures, but little in the way of
precip. In fact, this tough is forecast to persist for awhile,
meandering down into south Texas, then crawling up the Gulf Coast
to Louisiana by late week. The upper ridge will make an effort to
re-establish itself over the region, but thicknesses only increase
slightly thru the week. Thus, while temps will remain above normal
thru the extended, they`ll be closer to normal than they have been
of late. The MAV guidance is warmer than the MET, but both NAM and
GFS soundings suggest favoring the lower end of MOS. Under the
ridge, rain chances look slim, except for development invof the
Sacramentos, where the theta-e ridge resides.

Otherwise, the ridge will remain oriented SW-NE into the extended,
w/chances of convection increasing thru next weekend as an upper
trough traverses the upper CONUS, bringing shortwaves thru SW flow
aloft.  Chances really ramp up Monday w/the arrival of a strong
cold front, but that is beyond the reach of this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    60  93  62  96  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      68  94  69  94  /  10   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               66  94  68  95  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              61  88  64  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       60  90  64  91  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       53  87  54  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        64  93  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      67  93  68  92  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        64  96  68  97  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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