Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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533
FXUS64 KMAF 210519
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1219 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show one MCS moving acroos NE Eddy Co, and another
cluster of cells over the Big Bend Area. Main concerns are w/the
nrn MCS, which may last a few more hrs courtesy of a 30+kt LLJ to
assist. This will affect mainly KHOB/KCNM terminals. Otherwise,
buffer soundings develop a few hrs of IFR cigs KMAF after
sunrise, and MVFR KHOB. Convection will be possible again Saturday
afternoon/evening, w/cu bases 4.5-6kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1047 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2015/

UPDATE...

Update to extend PoPs farther south and east overnight.

DISCUSSION...

It appears convection may last a few more hours, due in part to a
modest low level jet which has increased to around 40kt over the
area.  Some of the storms could still produce gusty winds to 50 mph,
although a lack of shear will likely preclude any severe storms.
Will increase PoPs over SE NM, the upper Trans Pecos, and south
through the Big Bend region through late tonight.  An update will
follow shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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