Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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996
FXUS64 KMAF 250942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
442 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Another clear, cool morning is on tap today, though we do not
expect to see a repeat of the dense fog experienced the last two
mornings. Boundary layer moisture has decreased, and at this time,
temperature-dewpoint spreads across the Southeast New Mexico
Plains, Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos are still in the 4-7 degree
range. Some shallow, light, patchy fog may develop in the hours
around daybreak, but it should not cause the problems nor
visibility restrictions of the past two days, and should be quick
to burn off by mid-morning. Temperatures will rebound nicely today
after a cool morning, as high pressure and upper level ridging
continue to develop over New Mexico and West Texas. Highs today
should be at least a degree or two warmer than yesterday for all
locations, with low to middle 80s across higher elevations, upper
80s elsewhere, and near 90 degrees in the Trans Pecos and Rio
Grande Valley. The warm weather will stick around through Monday,
though Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the near-term, with
near record high temperatures currently forecast.

The GFS and ECMWF continue to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution of the weather pattern moving into next week, and thus,
not many changes were made to the going forecast through the
extended. The ridge of high pressure which will dominate sensible
weather across our area this weekend will gradually flatten and
shift to the east ahead of a developing Pacific trough.  This trough
will progress through the central CONUS, accompanied by a cold front
progged to move through the area early on Tuesday. While the front
will be dry, it will serve to reduce temperatures closer to seasonal
normals for midweek.

A secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough will
move through the area late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and
while the GFS and ECMWF both indicate some light QPF associated
with this feature, the trend has been for the precipitation to
shift further south and east. Have currently maintained the low
PoPs for this time frame, though confidence is beginning to wane
for measurable precipitation over southeastern zones next week.
Given the good agreement and model continuity displayed by the GFS
and ECMWF, have followed those modeled trends for the pattern
evolution next week. However, it does bear mentioning that the 00Z
and 06Z runs of the NAM, the first to capture the upcoming front,
indicate a slower FROPA, as well as the chance for some
precipitation along the front as it moves through the area Tuesday
morning into Tuesday afternoon. However, will wait for the NAM to
come more in line with other guidance before making any sweeping
changes. Otherwise, beyond midweek, another ridge looks to develop
over the southwestern CONUS, which would mean dry weather for the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  88  60  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  59  89  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                87  53  91  62  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  87  60  89  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  61  91  63  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  58  84  63  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   86  52  88  56  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   81  46  83  49  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  57  89  59  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  88  59  89  60  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  93  59  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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561
FXUS64 KMAF 250530
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main decision for tonight is whether there will be IFR fog again
this morning. Surface data indicates that dwpnts are lower (T/Td
spreads are greater) and there is less dew now than at this time
last night. HRRR model does show high RH/s toward 12Z, but not as
impressive as last nights. NAM BUFR soundings are more supportive
of IFR CIGS around 003FT, possibly as early as 10Z. As such have
opted to play the CIG card moreso than FG. Mstr will burn of quickly
before 15Z with winds on the light side.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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441
FXUS64 KMAF 250220
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
920 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows clear skies under an upper level ridge
centered over West Texas tonight. Sfc obs show winds have
decoupled, and w/no LLJ expected overnight, another bout of fog
seems likely. However, latest NAM suggests temps can be lowered a
bit, especially out west. We`ll do a quick update for this, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              58  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    54  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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998
FXUS64 KMAF 242326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected
for much of the TAF period. The exception will be from 10z to 15z
Saturday where a moist surface layer and light wind support TEMPO
LIFR conditions at most terminals except KFST and KCNM.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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767
FXUS64 KMAF 241908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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558
FXUS64 KMAF 241710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  However, fog could form again
late tonight.  Will not include a reduction in visibility at this
time since any fog development will occur near the end of the
forecast period.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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660
FXUS64 KMAF 241549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog was dissipating rapidly across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas as of 24/1540Z.  Although the visibility was less than 1 mile
at Pecos and Snyder at this time, rapid improvement will occur by
24/16Z.  Therefore, will cancel the rest of the Dense Fog Advisory.
The forecast looks good through the rest of the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...
Visibilities beginning to fall across the area as fog thickens.
Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin... Trans
Pecos... and Southeast New Mexico.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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240
FXUS64 KMAF 241154
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
654 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Visibilities beginning to fall across the area as fog thickens.
Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin... Trans
Pecos... and Southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  56  85  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              85  59  86  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  54  87  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  85  59  87  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  60  88  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  59  81  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  54  86  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  46  80  48  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  59  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  91  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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723
FXUS64 KMAF 241120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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091
FXUS64 KMAF 240928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  56  85  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              85  59  86  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  54  87  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  85  59  87  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  60  88  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  59  81  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  54  86  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  46  80  48  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  59  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  91  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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623
FXUS64 KMAF 240500
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern for the night/early morning is potential for areas of
dense fog. High resolution models NAM BUFR and HRRR rh progs are
supportive of dense fog in a strip from PEQ to INK to HOB and
another area across the SE PB and Lower Trans Pecos. For now have
included 1/4-3/4SM at all but FST/CNM and mainly between 10Z-15Z.
Otherwise winds are light and of little consequence.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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207
FXUS64 KMAF 232258
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected
for much of the TAF period. The exception will be from 11z to 16z
Friday, where TEMPO IFR conditions are expected to develop in fog at
most terminals.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Residual low clouds from this morning`s fog have dissipated, leaving
mostly sunny conditions as cumulus has formed over and near the
Davis/Glass Mountains.  The same scenario looks to play out tomorrow
morning as light winds, a weak pressure gradient, and overnight
clear skies will bring the potential for fog development.  Areas
affected include: parts of the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass Mountains,
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Southeast New Mexico plains.  Will
let the shift tonight adjust patchy fog wording accordingly.

Today will be the start of a gradual warming trend, which will
extend through the weekend as an upper ridge/high pressure builds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Today, temperatures
will be around 80 degrees with slightly cooler temps in the higher
elevations.  As we move into the weekend, temperatures into the
mid/upper 80s will be present which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.  We may warm to near record levels on
Sunday.  The record high for Midland International is 90 degrees set
in 1950.  The UA ridge will be flattened by a long wave trough
translating east through the central CONUS.  A cold front will push
through in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  It looks to be a dry frontal passage, though in the couple
days after, there could be a secondary shortwave trough passing near
or over the region.  This along with an increase in moisture from
southeasterly flow could allow for a chance of rain. Have slightly
increased PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains, but
will leave any mention of showers out for the time being.  Temps
will drop to around normal for Tuesday and remain in the mid 70s for
a couple days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/06

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979
FXUS64 KMAF 231946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Residual low clouds from this morning`s fog have dissipated, leaving
mostly sunny conditions as cumulus has formed over and near the
Davis/Glass Mountains.  The same scenario looks to play out tomorrow
morning as light winds, a weak pressure gradient, and overnight
clear skies will bring the potential for fog development.  Areas
affected include: parts of the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass Mountains,
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Southeast New Mexico plains.  Will
let the shift tonight adjust patchy fog wording accordingly.

Today will be the start of a gradual warming trend, which will
extend through the weekend as an upper ridge/high pressure builds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Today, temperatures
will be around 80 degrees with slightly cooler temps in the higher
elevations.  As we move into the weekend, temperatures into the
mid/upper 80s will be present which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.  We may warm to near record levels on
Sunday.  The record high for Midland International is 90 degrees set
in 1950.  The UA ridge will be flattened by a long wave trough
translating east through the central CONUS.  A cold front will push
through in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  It looks to be a dry frontal passage, though in the couple
days after, there could be a secondary shortwave trough passing near
or over the region.  This along with an increase in moisture from
southeasterly flow could allow for a chance of rain. Have slightly
increased PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains, but
will leave any mention of showers out for the time being.  Temps
will drop to around normal for Tuesday and remain in the mid 70s for
a couple days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  52  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  86  59  87  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                51  83  53  85  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  86  56  87  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  85  56  87  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  56  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  82  52  84  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  78  41  80  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  58  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    57  87  54  89  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/06

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273
FXUS64 KMAF 231713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has lifted across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin
late this morning, while IFR ceilings lingered over all but KMAF.
Will include IFR ceilings at KCNM, KHOB and KPEQ until 23/19Z as
low clouds should mix out more rapidly as heating continues.
Thereafter, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide through this
afternoon and most of tonight.  There are some indications fog may
form again late tonight and Friday morning.  Since this will be near
the end of the forecast period will hold off introducing any lower
visibility/ ceilings due to fog.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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546
FXUS64 KMAF 231605
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Dense Fog Advisory expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog is still lingering in and near Hobbs, Seminole and Andrews at
23/16Z.  However, satellite imagery indicated low clouds were
dissipating and allowing for surface temperatures to warm.
Therefore, expect visibilities to improve in areas still experiencing
fog, rapidly in some cases, through noon CDT.  Therefore, will
allow the Dense Fog Advisory to expire.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery and the latest surface observations indicate dense
fog is persisting over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos and a good deal of the Permian basin.
Therefore, will extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z, at which
time some improvement should occur.  Update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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962
FXUS64 KMAF 231443
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
943 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery and the latest surface observations indicate dense
fog is persisting over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos and a good deal of the Permian basin.
Therefore, will extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z, at which
time some improvement should occur.  Update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/84

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733
FXUS64 KMAF 231329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/44

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867
FXUS64 KMAF 231055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Martin...Midland...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/44

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399
FXUS64 KMAF 230928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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926
FXUS64 KMAF 230920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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339
FXUS64 KMAF 230503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and satellite loops show convection/cloud cover has
pushed east of the region, while sfc obs indicate light return
flow. Buffer soundings suggest widespread stratus to develop near
sunrise, w/perhaps some fog most terminals. NAM buffer soundings
are quite pessimistic on cigs/visibilities 12-15Z, and won`t take
the bait just yet. For now, we`ll restrict cigs/vsbys to IFR at
worst, at KHOB/KINK/KPEQ, and MVFR at KCNM/KMAF. This should erode
by late morning, at which time a widespread cu field is forecast,
w/bases 4-4.5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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949
FXUS64 KMAF 222300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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197
FXUS64 KMAF 221936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  81  57  82  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              55  81  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  81  53  83  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  80  61  83  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  81  59  85  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  76  58  77  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  80  54  82  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   48  76  47  78  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  81  58  85  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  81  58  85  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    54  84  56  86  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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430
FXUS64 KMAF 221755
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers NE of KMAF will continue progressing NE. Elsewhere skies
are expected to become VFR areawide by 22/21Z. Light winds and
mostly clear skies will set up a nice radiative fog event by
sunrise, as indicated by model BUFR soundings. Shallow MVFR vsbys
in fog are expected areawide with localized IFR vsbys possible for
a few hours. Vsbys could fall to LIFR category at KHOB as this
terminal`s vsby seems to crater for some unknown reason. The fog
will lift quickly after daybreak with variable surface winds and
VFR conditions...ideal GA flying weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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931
FXUS64 KMAF 221134
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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268
FXUS64 KMAF 220845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  57  81  58  /  40  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  55  81  57  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  56  81  54  /  30  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  70  59  80  61  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  57  81  59  /  40  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  57  76  59  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   75  54  80  55  /  30  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   71  47  76  46  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  53  81  56  /  40  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  73  54  81  56  /  40  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79  53  84  56  /  40  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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967
FXUS64 KMAF 220552
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue to percolate across parts of the area
tonight, and thus have maintained mention of -SHRA in KHOB and
KCNM TAFs. Flight conditions will remain largely VFR, though
periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out as showers move
through the area, mainly before 18Z Wednesday. One exception is
KPEQ, where a window exists from roughly 10-14Z for some transient
MVFR fog development. Otherwise, not many changes made to the
going TAF package, as light southeast winds will prevail, with
ceilings scattering out by latter portion of the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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919
FXUS64 KMAF 212324
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered light showers continue across the area this evening but
rainfall amounts will be light. No TS is expected. MVFR CIGs will
also be scattered around but are mainly expected in southeast NM
and the upper Trans Pecos 06-18Z. Conditions will improve the last
6 hours of the TAF period to VFR.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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065
FXUS64 KMAF 211901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  74  56  81  /  30  60  30  10
BIG SPRING TX              59  70  60  81  /  20  50  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                60  73  54  82  /  50  30  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  74  62  80  /  20  40  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  77  59  83  /  30  50  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  69  57  77  /  50  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   56  72  53  80  /  40  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   51  73  49  77  /  50  40  40  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  74  57  80  /  30  60  30  10
ODESSA TX                  59  76  58  80  /  30  60  30  10
WINK TX                    61  78  58  86  /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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042
FXUS64 KMAF 211746
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers and thunderstorms have continued through the afternoon
from KFST to just south of KHOB.  Most sites will experience MVFR
ceilings through the afternoon. Have mentioned -SHRA with the
expected increase in coverage of showers through this afternoon into
the evening. May also see a thunderstorm as well, so have left in
a Tempo for a couple sites. Do not anticipate any drastic changes
to the winds as they will be out of the S and SE at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

06

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270
FXUS64 KMAF 211136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted through the night
across western portions of the area, and additional development
over the past hour or so has been observed from KFST northwestward
to just east of KPEQ. The overall trend is expected to be that of
increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage today, thus have
maintained -SHRA mention at area terminals for the duration, with
the exception of KMAF, where generally dry conditions are expected
through early evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings/visibilities are
expected by this afternoon, with transient IFR conditions possible
with passing storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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813
FXUS64 KMAF 210845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  59  72  56  /  10  60  60  30
BIG SPRING TX              78  60  67  59  /  10  30  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  59  73  54  /  70  60  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  69  63  75  61  /  20  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  61  77  58  /  30  60  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  54  68  58  /  70  40  20  20
HOBBS NM                   73  58  70  54  /  10  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   68  51  72  48  /  70  60  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  59  71  56  /  10  60  70  30
ODESSA TX                  77  59  74  56  /  10  60  70  30
WINK TX                    76  60  77  56  /  30  50  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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758
FXUS64 KMAF 210550
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1250 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers are continuing to percolate along and west of a line from
roughly Ft. Stockton northward to Hobbs tonight, and while
coverage further north has decreased, continued development is
observed in Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. Have maintained
mention of -SHRA late tonight and Tuesday at area terminals, with
the exception of KMAF. Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected by
daybreak, with transient IFR possible with stronger showers.
Patchy fog has also begun to develop, and while visibilities
should largely remain MVFR, KPEQ has the best chance for IFR/LIFR
conditions, mainly near/just prior to daybreak.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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419
FXUS64 KMAF 202301
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will continue to carry thunderstorms at all but KMAF as showers and
thunderstorms continue along and west of an axis from Hobbs to Fort
Stockton this evening.  Expect VFR ceilings to lower to MVFR later
tonight, and possibly dip to IFR by 21/12Z at most terminals.  In
addition, fog could lower visibility to at least MVFR levels by
21/12Z at most TAF sites.  It appears MVFR ceilings may hang around
for much of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans
Pecos. Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, and local heavy rain is possible. Mid
level theta-e ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this
evening best PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However
there`s a substantial amount of TCU developing across the area
currently, including the PB and in the near term there is an
increasing chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be
possible just e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv
trof/s come out. The upper low will be weakening/filling as it
slowly moves e Tue. This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs
farther e, including across the PB. Model consensus including HPC
QPF is again supporting best PoPs to be to the w extending from
the Davis Mtns into the wrn PB, possibly central PB. Current grids
reflect this pretty well and will make only minor adjustments.
Finally Wed this slow moving trof axis will be farther e into the
PB and this actually may be the day with the best chance of rain
with NAM12 bringing out a well defined maxima of lift in mid
levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40% and will opt to
increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern transitions to
ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures will return.
A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus cooler, but
moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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562
FXUS64 KMAF 201909
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
209 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite and 12Z RAOB data place an upper low SW of El Paso City
with some minor lead shrtwv energy kicking out into the Trans Pecos.
Hier PW values ridge nwd thru the Trans Pecos from the Lower Rio
Grande Valley, and local heavy rain isn possible. Mid level theta-e
ridge does have trouble moving e and for today/this evening best
PoPs will remain across wrn 1/2 of CWFA. However there`s a
substantial amount of TCU developing across the area currently,
including the PB and in the near term there is an increasing
chance of SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise light precip will be possible just
e of the Pecos River tonight as dampening shrtwv trof/s come out.
The upper low will be weakening/filling as it slowly moves e Tue.
This will help set-up the axis of the hier PWs farther e, including
across the PB. Model consensus including HPC QPF is again supporting
best PoPs to be to the w extending from the Davis Mtns into the wrn
PB, possibly central PB. Current grids reflect this pretty well and
will make only minor adjustments. Finally Wed this slow moving trof
axis will be farther e into the PB and this actually may be the day
with the best chance of rain with NAM12 bringing out a well defined
maxima of lift in mid levels. Current PoPs are mostly around 40%
and will opt to increase closer to 50-60%. Thereafter pattern
transitions to ridging aloft Thur-Sat, so above normal temperatures
will return. A dry cold front will possible by next Monday, thus
cooler, but moreso for areas n of I-20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  70  54  71  /  20  30  40  60
BIG SPRING TX              59  74  56  71  /  20  20  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                57  70  57  75  /  50  50  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  64  73  61  74  /  50  40  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  71  57  74  /  40  60  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  66  51  69  /  50  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   56  70  53  67  /  30  40  40  60
MARFA TX                   54  68  50  72  /  50  60  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  73  54  72  /  20  40  40  60
ODESSA TX                  58  72  55  73  /  30  40  40  60
WINK TX                    62  73  59  77  /  40  50  40  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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346
FXUS64 KMAF 201804
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 20/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mucky forecast out west where a deep moisture layer extending from
the subtropical Pacific up through far west Texas and New Mexico
is interacting with several weak upper level disturbances. All
this and some sunshine in places will mean widespread -SHRA and also
some TSRA where daytime heating helps to create more instability.
After sunset, -SHRA will persist at KCNM, KINK, KPEQ, and KFST
with lesser chances farther east. Low cloudiness may persist at
KHOB and KMAF in the morning, meaning MVFR to IFR conditions
areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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234
FXUS64 KMAF 201130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through this evening with TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected this
morning through 16z. An upper level low pressure area across
northern Mexico will produce the threat of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of southeast New Mexico and southwest and west
Texas through tonight. Confidence was high enough to include prob
30 groups this afternoon and this evening for VFR conditions in
TSRA at KINK, KHOB and KCNM with TEMPO VFR conditions in TSRA at
KFST and KPEQ this afternoon and this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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146
FXUS64 KMAF 200845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Models continue to show an upper low moving closer and increasing
rain chances, especially west of the Pecos River. Echoes are
decreasing on radar early this morning but should increase again
later today. Some showers could produce brief heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding could be a concern in the Davis and
Guadalupe Mountains. There is not a lot of movement with the low
so the best rain chances will remain west of Midland through
tomorrow night before finally spreading east on Wednesday.
Unfortunately by that time the low will have weakened so rainfall
amounts will probably not be as high as is expected in the western
CWA.

Most models do not show a front with the passage of the upper low
on Thursday with only the ECMWF showing a weak passage on
Thursday. An upper high does build into the four corners region by
Friday providing northerly upper flow so a weak frontal passage
does not seem out of the question though the only effect may be a
slight wind shift. The current forecast does not have any cooling
behind the front since the upper low is weakening and lifting
northeast, a situation not favorable for surface cold air
advection in west Texas. The high will move out of the four
corners and into Texas over the weekend causing temperatures to
once again rise well above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  57  71  57  /  40  20  40  30
BIG SPRING TX              79  59  74  58  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  58  70  59  /  60  50  50  40
DRYDEN TX                  77  63  74  61  /  60  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           75  60  73  59  /  60  40  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  52  63  53  /  70  50  50  40
HOBBS NM                   74  55  70  56  /  50  30  40  30
MARFA TX                   70  51  66  50  /  70  50  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  58  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  59  73  58  /  30  30  40  20
WINK TX                    78  60  74  60  /  50  40  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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548
FXUS64 KMAF 200522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for much of the night with
TEMPO MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals in the 12z to 16z
Monday time frame. An upper level low pressure area across northern
Mexico will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and west Texas during
the day Monday. Confidence was high enough to include prob 30
groups from 15z to 21z Monday for MVFR conditions in -TSRA at
KCNM, KPEQ, KFST.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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217
FXUS64 KMAF 192306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will likely stay east of all area terminals through
tonight.  VFR conditions will persist through the evening, but
expect MVFR ceilings to develop at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas TAF sites by 20/12Z.  Ceilings may dip to IFR early Monday
morning, in addition to MVFR visibilities in fog possibly
materializing.  For now, will include the MVFR ceilings.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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836
FXUS64 KMAF 191922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 pm CDT Sunday...Satl imagery is indc a
weak upper low over Northern Baja California moving slowly east.
Ahead of this low diffluent flow aloft and a couple of weak
disturbances are bring scattered/isolated showers/thunderstorms to
the CWA. The greatest concentration of shower activity is in the
southern and eastern CWA at this time.

Models are in general agreement in opening up the upper low into a
trough and moving it very slowly east. This will keep the threat
of showers/thunderstorms through the middle of the upcoming work
week. The best chance of showers/thunderstorms will be in the west
during the beginning of the week...with better chances further
east Wednesday/Wednesday night as the trough moves over West
Texas. Daytime high temps will be near normal with the ample cloud
cover...with overnight low temps above normal.

A strong northern stream upper system will drop south southeast to
the Gulf Coast along the TX/LA border by the end of the week. This
will result in a positively tilted ridge building over AZ/NM/West
Texas with a northerly flow aloft. This will bring dry weather to
the CWA starting late Thursday and continuing right thru next
weekend. Temps will warm to above normal as H85 temps warm.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  72  54  70  /  30  30  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              58  75  58  74  /  30  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  72  55  68  /  30  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  77  /  20  40  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  73  57  74  /  30  50  40  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  63  50  62  /  40  60  50  50
HOBBS NM                   54  70  53  68  /  40  50  40  30
MARFA TX                   51  66  51  65  /  50  70  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  75  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  57  74  56  73  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    59  71  57  73  /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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432
FXUS64 KMAF 191724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly -SHRA are near PEQ/INK/HOB/MAF. Development of -SHRA/-TSRA
is slow, but there is enough of a trend to expect development to
continue thru the PM. Have opted to include -SHRA at HOB/PEQ btwn
19Z-21Z. -TSRA potential is too low to include attm. MVFR CIGS
will again be possible overnight mainly after 07Z, per NAM BUFR
soundings and have included.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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025
FXUS64 KMAF 191320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
820 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:15 am CDT Sunday...radar continues to show
mainly light shower activity over the western portions of the CWA.
Based on radar imagery and cooling cloud tops per IR imagery have
decided to bump up pops in the west for today. Have kept chc pops
in the east as convective activity in northern Mexico south of
Terrell County is forecast to spread north and northwest today.

Strobin

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs have been a little slow developing this morning though
they have made an appearance at INK and FST. Latest satellite
shows low clouds to the south and east expanding into the area
which agrees with model data so will continue to keep BKN010-020
in TAFs this morning. This will lift this afternoon with another
round expected again tonight. There will be isolated TS but
coverage is not great enough to put in the prevailing WX of any
TAF site.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  55  72  54  /  30  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              74  57  76  58  /  30  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  58  72  55  /  30  30  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  79  63  78  62  /  50  20  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  59  74  58  /  30  20  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  53  68  51  /  30  40  60  50
HOBBS NM                   73  55  71  55  /  20  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   74  52  69  52  /  30  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  57  74  57  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  57  74  57  /  30  20  30  30
WINK TX                    75  58  75  58  /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

33/49

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206
FXUS64 KMAF 191123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs have been a little slow developing this morning though
they have made an appearance at INK and FST. Latest satellite
shows low clouds to the south and east expanding into the area
which agrees with model data so will continue to keep BKN010-020
in TAFs this morning. This will lift this afternoon with another
round expected again tonight. There will be isolated TS but
coverage is not great enough to put in the prevailing WX of any
TAF site.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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636
FXUS64 KMAF 190908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A southern stream upper level low pressure system currently
centered near northern Baja is forecast to move slowly east
across northern Mexico and weaken into a trough as it approaches
west Texas and southeast New Mexico by Tuesday. Ahead of this
system decent upper forcing and upper level divergence will
interact with low level moisture advecting from the western
Gulf of Mexico to produce an increase chance of showers with some
thunderstorms across the forecast area. This appears especially
true across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain of
southwest Texas closest to the system with enhancement from
upslope flow up the higher terrain. High temperatures are expected
to be below normal through Tuesday due to moist upslope low level
flow with significant cloud cover expected.

By late Tuesday through Wednesday night this upper low is expected
to weaken into a trough and move eastward across the Rockies and
the the Plain states. This should shift the best chance of
precipitation eastward to the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos
region of west Texas. High temperatures are expected to continue
to be below normal due to upslope flow and considerable clouds.

By next Thursday the guidance is now in more of agreement that
the upper level system will continue to push east of the forecast
area and then move slowly through the southern Gulf Coast states.
Precipitation chances should be confined to the eastern Permian
Basin during the day Thursday. Dry northerly flow aloft is
expected behind this system beyond Thursday through next weekend
with temperatures returning to slightly above normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  55  72  54  /  30  20  30  30
BIG SPRING TX              74  57  76  58  /  30  10  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                72  58  72  55  /  20  30  50  50
DRYDEN TX                  79  63  78  62  /  50  20  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  59  74  58  /  30  20  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  53  68  51  /  20  40  60  50
HOBBS NM                   73  55  71  55  /  20  20  30  40
MARFA TX                   74  52  69  52  /  20  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  57  74  57  /  30  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  75  57  74  57  /  30  20  30  30
WINK TX                    75  58  75  58  /  30  20  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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421
FXUS64 KMAF 190536
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper low will draw moisture northward bringing MVFR/IFR CIGs
into the area around 12Z. These CIGs should lift after 18Z but a
return of low clouds is expected near the end or just after the
end of this TAF period. The low will also bring showers and
isolated TS, though not enough to put in the prevailing weather
group at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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071
FXUS64 KMAF 182333
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds are expected to be out of the east through Sunday morning and
then become southeasterly.  Winds will generally remain light with
some gusts possible Sunday afternoon.  Precipitation will move into
the area Sunday morning with the best chances for KMAF.  Low clouds
will move into the area around 09z with the lowest ceilings likely
occurring around 13z.  Ceilings will probably improve around 19z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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549
FXUS64 KMAF 181936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 pm CDT...radar is indc a few light
showers in the northern CWA moving NE. Water vapor imagery is
showing a weak upper low in NE New Mexico moving NE.

Models develop an upper low over So Cal and drop it into NW Mexico
on Sunday...with a negatively tilted trough drawing in moisture.
After a mainly dry night tonight diffluent flow aloft on Sunday
will bring chc/slight chc showers and thunderstorms to the CWA.
The threat of showers/thunderstorms will continue in the western
PB westward Sunday night a a brief shortwave ridge pops up over
central TX. As the upper low opens into a wave and moves slowly
across northern Mexico/Texas the threat of showers/thunderstorms
will continue into Thursday. With the rain threat and extensive
cloud cover afternoon temps will be near normal.

Dry weather looks to return to the Region Thursday night and
continue through next weekend. A ridge will build into New
Mexico/West Texas from Arizona and Sonora as an upper low develops
and drops south to the Texas Gulf Coast. This will bring NE flow
aloft to the area resulting in dry and slightly warmer weather.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  73  56  72  /  10  30  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              56  74  58  76  /   0  30  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                53  72  56  72  /  20  20  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  64  77  64  78  /  30  30  10  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  76  59  74  /  10  20  20  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  65  53  68  /  10  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                   49  73  54  71  /  10  20  20  40
MARFA TX                   47  74  50  69  /  10  20  40  60
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  75  58  74  /   0  30  10  40
ODESSA TX                  56  75  59  74  /   0  30  10  40
WINK TX                    58  75  61  75  /   0  30  20  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/33

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061
FXUS64 KMAF 181729
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers are dissipating around and e of HOB with some BKN100 remaining.
Concern for the overnight is the return of MVFR CIGS which looks to
be most likely after 10Z. Satellite showed considerable low clouds/mstr
well to the s this AM and we expect that this mstr will surge nwd
overnight. Also have opted to include PROB30 -TSRA all locales except
CNM/HOB starting as early as 13Z at FST.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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923
FXUS64 KMAF 181436 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
936 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Have sent an update to increase PoPs in the chance category across
the far NW CWFA where mostly showers are moving ne across that
area. Local rainfall amounts around .15" possible, TTU Mesonet in
SE NM shows that .14" at Hobbs and .18" at Tatum has fallen.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Light showers and isolated TS are moving across southeast NM this
morning but should have minimal impact at the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected through 06Z with MVFR CIGs arriving at
MAF/HOB/CNM 19/06-12Z. These CIGs will arrive later at the other
TAF sites and have not been included with this issuance.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front is currently approaching the Rio Grande River and
should pass into Mexico today as surface high pressure builds
south and west into the region through at least Tuesday. This
surface high will be created in the wake of an upper level system
moving from the upper Midwest to the east coast. The surface high
will enhance cool upslope flow in the forecast area with below
normal temperatures and considerable clouds expected through the
period. In the upper levels a weak trough passing through New
Mexico could generate isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms today across southeast New Mexico and the extreme
northwestern Permian Basin.

A stronger southern stream system currently off the west coast
of California is forecast to track across northern Mexico Sunday
through early Tuesday resulting in an increase chance of
thunderstorms across the forecast area, especially across
southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. The higher guidance pops
and higher QPF output looks most reasonable due to the closed
nature of the upper level system.

By late Tuesday through at least Thursday yet another potent upper
level storm system is forecast to approach from the west resulting
in a continued chance of thunderstorms these periods. A slower and
more amplified and moist ECMWF solution is preferred over the GFS
given its recent superior track record. Generally at or below
normal high temperatures are expected to continue Tuesday through
Thursday with widespread upslope flow and considerable cloudiness
expected to continue.

Kept Friday and Saturday dry for now pending greater confidence in
the eventual track of this upper level system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  54  73  58  /  20  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              75  56  73  59  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  54  74  58  /  20  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                  85  63  74  64  /   0  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  58  75  59  /   0  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  51  68  55  /  10  10  20  40
HOBBS NM                   73  50  73  56  /  30  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   79  49  74  52  /   0  10  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    75  54  72  59  /   0  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  76  57  73  60  /   0  10  20  20
WINK TX                    80  58  75  62  /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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