Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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539
FXUS64 KMAF 200256 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
856 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Reducing precipitation chances for the rest of the night across
the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lift and moisture ahead of upper trough moving through west Texas
and New Mexico tonight focusing further east with time with only
a few light rain showers remaining from the eastern Permian Basin
south to the Big Bend region. Vorticity center pushing northeast
into Big Bend area providing some lift, though precipitation
limited by stability and lack of significant moisture. Still could
see area of light rain pushing northeast across Terrell County
into the Concho Valley overnight. Little if any measurable
precipitation is expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. WV imagery shows the
upper trough over wrn NM, about to enter far west Texas, preceded
by a line of -SHRA that has just cleared KMAF. Models suggest this
will be it as far as terminals are concerned. Expect cigs to
raise and dissipate as the upper trough scours the area over the
next 18 hours. Sfc flow will veer to NW after 12Z Monday, w/buffer
soundings suggesting a low-based cu field developing before 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough over AZ this morning will push east today passing over
the region tomorrow.  In its wake high pressure will build over the
area.  The next upper trough will move over the West Coast on
Wednesday and quickly progress east but pass north of the region.
Another strong trough will move ashore Saturday and will have to
watch this one as it approaches on a southern track.

low level moisture flowed into the area this morning with dewpts
into the upper 50s NE with 30s W.  However as of afternoon this
moisture is getting pushed east by a west wind. As of 20z the
dryline has pushed through all but the Scurry/Mitchell county
area. Have had light returns of high based showers on radar for
several hours but these are back in the dry air so most of this
has been evaporating as it falls. Will keep low chance of storms
along and east of an Alpine to Midland line tonight but expect
most storms will form farther east.  There will be the potential
for some severe wx over North... Central... and even South TX
tonight.  The rest of the week looks dry.

With rain exiting the area the main story will be temperatures.
Expect to see readings well above normal this week with 80s
returning by Wednesday.  Thursday looks warm and windy and will
have fire wx concerns developing.  A cold front moves through
Friday knocking highs back into the 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  73  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  72  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         50  77  47  81 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  45  72  45  77 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  63  29  71 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  72  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         44  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  74  37  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05

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