Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

Dry and windy best summarizes the next several days for West Texas
and southeastern New Mexico. An upper level low currently over the
western U.S. will slowly move east through mid week. The jet
stream rounding the base of the low will be located directly over
the CWA and surface heating on Tuesday will help mix these winds
into the mountains and adjacent plains. Have issued a High Wind
Watch for the Davis Mountains mainly for the higher elevations
above 6000 feet; winds should not be quite as strong in Fort
Davis, Marfa, and Alpine though it will still be quite windy. The
west winds will keep moisture well to the east so no rain is in
the forecast through Wednesday.

The first low moves east Wednesday and another quickly drops south
along the U.S./Mexico border on Thursday. Backing winds ahead of
the low should help pull moisture farther west finally giving the
eastern CWA a chance for rain Thursday night into Friday.
Unfortunately models are showing the low lifting northeast before
reaching NM keeping the best lift (and rain chances) north of our
area though the eastern Permian Basin could receive some
beneficial rainfall. The low moves east Saturday allowing for a
pleasant, if breezy, weekend. Temperatures through this week will
be near or slightly above normal.



An upper level trough developing over the Four Corners will continue
to bring fire weather concerns to the area this week. The dryline
has moved east of our region this afternoon with low rh`s filling in
behind it. Winds are gusty across SE NM and the Guadalupe Mountains
so the current RFW for today still looks good. The upper trough will
eject out onto the Plains Tuesday bringing more widespread fire
weather concerns. The dryline will retreat tonight before getting a
stronger push east tomorrow morning. Strong winds will mix down
Tuesday afternoon and combine with the already low rh`s to bring
very high fire danger to parts of the area. ERC`s across the Trans
Pecos are below normal as much of this area has missed out on the
spring rains received further east. Locations including Marfa,
Alpine, and Carlsbad have all received less than one half inch so
far this year. Collaboration with local officials tells us the rains
early this month have helped green-up the Permian Basin. Will
upgrade the watch for tomorrow to a Red Flag Warning and add
locations south to the Big Bend. Dry conditions continue through
midweek, but fire weather concerns look to stay confined to the
Guadalupe Mountains as winds elsewhere decrease.


Big Spring                     60  82  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       58  76  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  93  57  90 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  85  53  85 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  66  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  73  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  75  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           59  83  53  84 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         60  82  53  84 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           58  83  50  86 /   0   0  10   0


.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Tuesday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM
     CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Tuesday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.



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