Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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910
FXUS64 KMAF 181137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Mid and high clouds
are mostly concentrated to the e-se of KMAF, low clouds may near
MAF and brief light fog is possible this morning with the light
winds and RHs near 95 pct. Light winds this morning give way to
increasing west to southwest winds by mid/late AM and diminish
around or shortly after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Per satellite imagery, the slow moving low that has been responsible
for repeated opportunities for severe weather over our area the past
several days has begun to lift northeast, and is currently located
over east central Colorado. Low level westerly flow continues to
advect dry air into the area as well, and combined with the low
finally moving toward the plains, the dryline will be shunted to the
east of the forecast area today, along with any chances of
convection. The only caveat to this scenario could be over portions
of the Lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell county, where models are
indicating some light QPF through this afternoon before the dryline
clears the forecast area to the east.  Thus, will maintain the
potential for isolated thunder in this area today, though any storms
that do develop will struggle to become marginally severe before
exiting the area to the east toward a more favorable environment.
That said, threats would include hail and gusty winds. Of larger
concern today is the combination of gusty west winds and dry
conditions/low RH, which is expected to result in critical fire
weather conditions across the southeast New Mexico plains and
Guadalupe Mountains, and warranted the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning. Please see the Fire Weather discussion as well as the RFW
product for details.

High temperatures today will range from the middle 70s across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and in the Davis mountains to low 80s
elsewhere, and even to the upper 80s and near 90 degrees in the Rio
Grande Valley.  A rather benign weather pattern the next several
days will prevent temperatures from fluctuating too much, with
temperatures expected to fluctuate between a few degrees above
and below normal through the week. The normal high for Midland for
this time of year is 80 degrees. A weak cold front will edge into
the area late Sunday, which will drop temperatures a few degrees
for Monday into Tuesday, though a quick return to low level
southeasterly flow by late Monday becoming southerly by Tuesday
will help temperatures to moderate, as well as allow moisture to
once again stream across the region. With quasizonal flow setting
in aloft in the wake of the aforementioned departing low, any weak
shortwaves could potentially result in some showers/thunderstorms
across portions of the area, but given uncertain timing of these
features, have not made substantial changes to the slight chance
PoPs in the extended. By midweek, models indicate the potential
for the dryline to reform across the area, which could act as the
focus for mid- to late-week storm activity, as yet another low
looks to take shape over the western CONUS and dive south,
transitioning flow aloft from quasizonal to southwesterly. Will
wait and see how later model runs handle this feature before
making any sweeping changes to PoPs that far out in the extended.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns increase again today spreading into parts of
southeast New Mexico (Eddy/Lea) Co. Mixed layer winds of 20kt
suggest winds will just make into the 20 mph for most of the
afternoon. stronger in GDP Mtns. For GDP Mtns above 6000 ft the
RH may not fall to 15 pct. Fire Danger will be high to very high.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 180847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Per satellite imagery, the slow moving low that has been responsible
for repeated opportunities for severe weather over our area the past
several days has begun to lift northeast, and is currently located
over east central Colorado. Low level westerly flow continues to
advect dry air into the area as well, and combined with the low
finally moving toward the plains, the dryline will be shunted to the
east of the forecast area today, along with any chances of
convection. The only caveat to this scenario could be over portions
of the Lower Trans Pecos, mainly Terrell county, where models are
indicating some light QPF through this afternoon before the dryline
clears the forecast area to the east.  Thus, will maintain the
potential for isolated thunder in this area today, though any storms
that do develop will struggle to become marginally severe before
exiting the area to the east toward a more favorable environment.
That said, threats would include hail and gusty winds. Of larger
concern today is the combination of gusty west winds and dry
conditions/low RH, which is expected to result in critical fire
weather conditions across the southeast New Mexico plains and
Guadalupe Mountains, and warranted the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning. Please see the Fire Weather discussion as well as the RFW
product for details.

High temperatures today will range from the middle 70s across the
southeast New Mexico Plains and in the Davis mountains to low 80s
elsewhere, and even to the upper 80s and near 90 degrees in the Rio
Grande Valley.  A rather benign weather pattern the next several
days will prevent temperatures from fluctuating too much, with
temperatures expected to fluctuate between a few degrees above
and below normal through the week. The normal high for Midland for
this time of year is 80 degrees. A weak cold front will edge into
the area late Sunday, which will drop temperatures a few degrees
for Monday into Tuesday, though a quick return to low level
southeasterly flow by late Monday becoming southerly by Tuesday
will help temperatures to moderate, as well as allow moisture to
once again stream across the region. With quasizonal flow setting
in aloft in the wake of the aforementioned departing low, any weak
shortwaves could potentially result in some showers/thunderstorms
across portions of the area, but given uncertain timing of these
features, have not made substantial changes to the slight chance
PoPs in the extended. By midweek, models indicate the potential
for the dryline to reform across the area, which could act as the
focus for mid- to late-week storm activity, as yet another low
looks to take shape over the western CONUS and dive south,
transitioning flow aloft from quasizonal to southwesterly. Will
wait and see how later model runs handle this feature before
making any sweeping changes to PoPs that far out in the extended.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns increase again today spreading into parts of
southeast New Mexico (Eddy/Lea) Co. Mixed layer winds of 20kt
suggest winds will just make into the 20 mph for most of the
afternoon. stronger in GDP Mtns. For GDP Mtns above 6000 ft the
RH may not fall to 15 pct. Fire Danger will be high to very high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  49  74  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              82  52  78  51  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  48  77  47  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  90  54  88  57  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  53  80  51  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  47  72  46  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   75  46  73  45  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   73  36  73  41  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  51  78  49  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  80  51  78  50  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    81  50  80  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

49/84

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945
FXUS64 KMAF 180531
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.  Mid and high
clouds are expected overnight but skies should clear Saturday
morning. Light winds this morning will increase from the west to
southwest by mid/late AM and diminish around or shortly after
sunset.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM MDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM MDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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672
FXUS64 KMAF 172254
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
554 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. West to southwest
winds should diminish and become light and variable around or
shortly after sunset and continue overnight. some mid and high
clouds are expected overnight but skies should clear Saturday
morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A large cutoff low has swirled eastward into southern Colorado this
afternoon, while a Pacific front to it`s south has pushed through
most of our forecast area.  West/southwest flow aloft will persist
over the region tonight and Saturday to the south of the slowly
northeastward ambling upper low, and continue to supply a feed of
dry air to the region.  There does appear to be another shortwave
trough swinging around the base of the upper low tonight, along with
a 110kt h25 jet nosing into southwest Texas, which could spark a few
thunderstorms over the Big Bend region, but low level moisture will
be fairly scant.  Will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms from
the Big Bend across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern fringe of the
Permian basin tonight.  Think the biggest threat will be gusty winds
over the the Big Bend due to a fairly dry subcloud layer, and an
outside chance of a severe storm over the eastern Permian Basin or
Lower Trans Pecos through tonight.

By Saturday, think the persistent westerly flow will shove the
dryline east of the area, except perhaps over Terrell county where
only a slight chance of thunderstorms will be retained.  Do not
think there will be any severe storms even that far west.  It looks
like fire weather concerns will persist through Saturday while
cyclonic flow around the southern periphery of the upper low is
still strong enough for windy conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for more details.

The semi permanent upper low will finally rejoin the northern stream
Sunday.  A large upper trough will then encompass the eastern half
of the ConUS into mid next week and leave the forecast area dry
Sunday and Monday.  A cold front will push into the region Sunday
and result in a continuation of near normal, pleasant Springtime
temperatures.  By Tuesday, the parent surface ridge behind the front
will slide eastward and allow for southerly return flow in it`s
wake.  At the same time, another southern stream ua trough will
begin to head toward the region via the Baja Peninsula and northern
Mexico.  A dryline will form over the area, and we could have
thunderstorms develop from Tuesday until the end of next week.  Any
PoPs in these time frames will be held to a slight chance as there
are too many differences in the timing of discrete shortwave troughs
ahead of the mentioned ua trough amongst models, not to mention the
ua trough itself, to carry anything moreso.  It appears temperatures
will warm above normal for mid to late next week though.

FIRE WEATHER...

As an upper level storm system over the Four Corners Region
continues to slide east into the Central Plains today, associated
surface low pressure will also slide further to the east as well as
drier downslope west winds work their way into the area.  700 mb
winds from the 12z NAM suggest the strongest winds aloft should be
confined primarily to the Guadalupe Mountains from this afternoon
through this evening. With RH values already below 15 percent at GDP
and with winds expected to increase, the current Red Flag Warning
appears to be on track.

Saturday presents an interesting scenario.  On the backside of this
storm system, the NAM suggests wind speeds should be sufficient to
meet critical thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New
Mexico Plains, Upper Trans Pecos Region, and over the western
portions of the Permian Saturday afternoon.  On the other hand, the
GFS shows noticeably lower wind speeds.  Plus, models are suggesting
increasing mid level moisture into the area throughout the day on
Saturday, which will could result in relative humidity meeting
thresholds for a very small window of time during the early
afternoon, if at all.  For now, we will lean towards a Fire Weather
Watch for these areas.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

03/67

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979
FXUS64 KMAF 171926
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A large cutoff low has swirled eastward into southern Colorado this
afternoon, while a Pacific front to it`s south has pushed through
most of our forecast area.  West/southwest flow aloft will persist
over the region tonight and Saturday to the south of the slowly
northeastward ambling upper low, and continue to supply a feed of
dry air to the region.  There does appear to be another shortwave
trough swinging around the base of the upper low tonight, along with
a 110kt h25 jet nosing into southwest Texas, which could spark a few
thunderstorms over the Big Bend region, but low level moisture will
be fairly scant.  Will carry a slight chance of thunderstorms from
the Big Bend across the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern fringe of the
Permian basin tonight.  Think the biggest threat will be gusty winds
over the the Big Bend due to a fairly dry subcloud layer, and an
outside chance of a severe storm over the eastern Permian Basin or
Lower Trans Pecos through tonight.

By Saturday, think the persistent westerly flow will shove the
dryline east of the area, except perhaps over Terrell county where
only a slight chance of thunderstorms will be retained.  Do not
think there will be any severe storms even that far west.  It looks
like fire weather concerns will persist through Saturday while
cyclonic flow around the southern periphery of the upper low is
still strong enough for windy conditions over the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains.  Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for more details.

The semi permanent upper low will finally rejoin the northern stream
Sunday.  A large upper trough will then encompass the eastern half
of the ConUS into mid next week and leave the forecast area dry
Sunday and Monday.  A cold front will push into the region Sunday
and result in a continuation of near normal, pleasant Springtime
temperatures.  By Tuesday, the parent surface ridge behind the front
will slide eastward and allow for southerly return flow in it`s
wake.  At the same time, another southern stream ua trough will
begin to head toward the region via the Baja Peninsula and northern
Mexico.  A dryline will form over the area, and we could have
thunderstorms develop from Tuesday until the end of next week.  Any
PoPs in these time frames will be held to a slight chance as there
are too many differences in the timing of discrete shortwave troughs
ahead of the mentioned ua trough amongst models, not to mention the
ua trough itself, to carry anything moreso.  It appears temperatures
will warm above normal for mid to late next week though.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As an upper level storm system over the Four Corners Region
continues to slide east into the Central Plains today, associated
surface low pressure will also slide further to the east as well as
drier downslope west winds work their way into the area.  700 mb
winds from the 12z NAM suggest the strongest winds aloft should be
confined primarily to the Guadalupe Mountains from this afternoon
through this evening. With RH values already below 15 percent at GDP
and with winds expected to increase, the current Red Flag Warning
appears to be on track.

Saturday presents an interesting scenario.  On the backside of this
storm system, the NAM suggests wind speeds should be sufficient to
meet critical thresholds over the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast New
Mexico Plains, Upper Trans Pecos Region, and over the western
portions of the Permian Saturday afternoon.  On the other hand, the
GFS shows noticeably lower wind speeds.  Plus, models are suggesting
increasing mid level moisture into the area throughout the day on
Saturday, which will could result in relative humidity meeting
thresholds for a very small window of time during the early
afternoon, if at all.  For now, we will lean towards a Fire Weather
Watch for these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 46  77  50  76  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  82  51  81  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  79  48  78  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  90  55  89  /  30  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           51  83  53  82  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  68  47  73  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   39  76  46  74  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   36  73  41  75  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  81  51  78  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  50  80  52  79  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    46  81  49  81  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

03/67

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361
FXUS64 KMAF 171739
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface winds at TAF locations will gradually shift to northwest
to west later this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances have
shifted farther east of TAF sites this afternoon to just along
the eastern edge of our county warning area. Rain chances will again
increase slightly later this evening at KFST and KMAF locations.
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A pre-frontal trough ahead of an advancing Pacific front interacted
with the retreating dryline overnight to generate a line of storms
across southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin.
These storms have moved northeast into the Texas Panhandle and have
largely remained sub-severe. Currently, a few showers continue to
percolate northeastward across the southeast New Mexico plains,
and a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned overnight
convection is moving southeast through the central Permian Basin,
though is not expected to generate additional convection through
the early morning hours.

The main focus today will be the continued threat of severe storms
as the Pacific front continues to move east, allowing for additional
convergence along the dryline that has been responsible for
generating strong to severe storms across the area the past couple
of days. As dry air is ushered into the area via westerlies behind
the front today, the dryline will be pushed east, and thus it looks
like the area with the best chance for severe storms today will be
across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. In this
area, southeasterly winds ahead of the dryline will continue to
advect moisture into the region, and with highs expected to climb
into the 70s and 80s once again this afternoon, diurnal
destabilization is expected to result in MLCAPE values from 1000 to
2000 J/kg along and ahead of the dryline. High resolution model
guidance indicates that convective initiation will occur by mid to
late afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, with storms expected to intensify as they move east into a
more favorable environment in the warm sector coincident with a
vort max that is progged to eject out ahead of the low pressure
system currently over the Four Corners region. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the aforementioned area along
and ahead of the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos in a Marginal Risk area for severe weather, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Storms will
spread eastward tonight, and as dry air continues to advect into
the region from the west, the dryline will also shift east,
resulting in diminishing chances for storms tonight, with only a
slight chance of storms lingering on Saturday across the Lower
Trans Pecos.

The closed low currently over the Four Corners will open up as it
slowly lifts northeast into the plains and rejoins the northern
stream flow over the next 24 to 48 hours, with storm chances ending
from west to east by late Saturday as the trough axis swings through
the area. A return to quasizonal flow aloft will occur by Sunday,
with a weak surface front edging southward into the area Sunday
night marking slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.  The dry
period will be rather short lived, however, as by Monday night,
southeasterly surface flow will once again set in across the area,
allowing for increased moisture return from the Gulf.  By Wednesday,
models indicate the dryline forming across the area once again, but
given uncertainties as to the exact location, have maintained the
slight chance to low chance pops across the eastern half of the
forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet another closed low
looks to take shape and dive south toward Baja by late in the
extended, with quasizonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest flow
by late Thursday into Friday. However, models diverge in the
handling of this feature heading into next weekend, and thus have
not deviated from the blended guidance at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level low over the Rocky Mountains will spread very dry air
east into the central Permian Basin today. In fact, relative
humidities this morning are already below 15 percent in the
Guadalupe Mountains and parts of Eddy County. However the upper low
is still a good distance from the area so winds in southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas will generally remain below 20 mph. The
exception will be in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains where stronger mid level winds will be able to mix down
with the help of afternoon heating and it is this area where a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. The upper low is moving very slowly
east so similar conditions are expected to develop tomorrow with
very dry air over much of the area but winds struggling to reach 20
mph. High pressure moving into the area Sunday will bring in enough
moisture to reduce the critical fire weather threat into early next
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

03

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040
FXUS64 KMAF 171126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
southerly winds gradually shifting to the west/northwest as a weak
front moves through the area this morning. A few thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon and early this evening which could
impact KMAF or KFST, though given the best chance of storms is
east of the terminals, have not included mention in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A pre-frontal trough ahead of an advancing Pacific front interacted
with the retreating dryline overnight to generate a line of storms
across southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin.
These storms have moved northeast into the Texas Panhandle and have
largely remained sub-severe. Currently, a few showers continue to
percolate northeastward across the southeast New Mexico plains,
and a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned overnight
convection is moving southeast through the central Permian Basin,
though is not expected to generate additional convection through
the early morning hours.

The main focus today will be the continued threat of severe storms
as the Pacific front continues to move east, allowing for additional
convergence along the dryline that has been responsible for
generating strong to severe storms across the area the past couple
of days. As dry air is ushered into the area via westerlies behind
the front today, the dryline will be pushed east, and thus it looks
like the area with the best chance for severe storms today will be
across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. In this
area, southeasterly winds ahead of the dryline will continue to
advect moisture into the region, and with highs expected to climb
into the 70s and 80s once again this afternoon, diurnal
destabilization is expected to result in MLCAPE values from 1000 to
2000 J/kg along and ahead of the dryline. High resolution model
guidance indicates that convective initiation will occur by mid to
late afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, with storms expected to intensify as they move east into a
more favorable environment in the warm sector coincident with a
vort max that is progged to eject out ahead of the low pressure
system currently over the Four Corners region. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the aforementioned area along
and ahead of the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos in a Marginal Risk area for severe weather, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Storms will
spread eastward tonight, and as dry air continues to advect into
the region from the west, the dryline will also shift east,
resulting in diminishing chances for storms tonight, with only a
slight chance of storms lingering on Saturday across the Lower
Trans Pecos.

The closed low currently over the Four Corners will open up as it
slowly lifts northeast into the plains and rejoins the northern
stream flow over the next 24 to 48 hours, with storm chances ending
from west to east by late Saturday as the trough axis swings through
the area. A return to quasizonal flow aloft will occur by Sunday,
with a weak surface front edging southward into the area Sunday
night marking slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.  The dry
period will be rather short lived, however, as by Monday night,
southeasterly surface flow will once again set in across the area,
allowing for increased moisture return from the Gulf.  By Wednesday,
models indicate the dryline forming across the area once again, but
given uncertainties as to the exact location, have maintained the
slight chance to low chance pops across the eastern half of the
forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet another closed low
looks to take shape and dive south toward Baja by late in the
extended, with quasizonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest flow
by late Thursday into Friday. However, models diverge in the
handling of this feature heading into next weekend, and thus have
not deviated from the blended guidance at this time.

FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level low over the Rocky Mountains will spread very dry air
east into the central Permian Basin today. In fact, relative
humidities this morning are already below 15 percent in the
Guadalupe Mountains and parts of Eddy County. However the upper low
is still a good distance from the area so winds in southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas will generally remain below 20 mph. The
exception will be in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains where stronger mid level winds will be able to mix down
with the help of afternoon heating and it is this area where a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. The upper low is moving very slowly
east so similar conditions are expected to develop tomorrow with
very dry air over much of the area but winds struggling to reach 20
mph. High pressure moving into the area Sunday will bring in enough
moisture to reduce the critical fire weather threat into early next
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84

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807
FXUS64 KMAF 170945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
445 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A pre-frontal trough ahead of an advancing Pacific front interacted
with the retreating dryline overnight to generate a line of storms
across southeastern New Mexico and northwestern Permian Basin.
These storms have moved northeast into the Texas Panhandle and have
largely remained sub-severe. Currently, a few showers continue to
percolate northeastward across the southeast New Mexico plains,
and a remnant outflow boundary from the aforementioned overnight
convection is moving southeast through the central Permian Basin,
though is not expected to generate additional convection through
the early morning hours.

The main focus today will be the continued threat of severe storms
as the Pacific front continues to move east, allowing for additional
convergence along the dryline that has been responsible for
generating strong to severe storms across the area the past couple
of days. As dry air is ushered into the area via westerlies behind
the front today, the dryline will be pushed east, and thus it looks
like the area with the best chance for severe storms today will be
across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. In this
area, southeasterly winds ahead of the dryline will continue to
advect moisture into the region, and with highs expected to climb
into the 70s and 80s once again this afternoon, diurnal
destabilization is expected to result in MLCAPE values from 1000 to
2000 J/kg along and ahead of the dryline. High resolution model
guidance indicates that convective initiation will occur by mid to
late afternoon across the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos, with storms expected to intensify as they move east into a
more favorable environment in the warm sector coincident with a
vort max that is progged to eject out ahead of the low pressure
system currently over the Four Corners region. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted the aforementioned area along
and ahead of the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos in a Marginal Risk area for severe weather, with large
hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Storms will
spread eastward tonight, and as dry air continues to advect into
the region from the west, the dryline will also shift east,
resulting in diminishing chances for storms tonight, with only a
slight chance of storms lingering on Saturday across the Lower
Trans Pecos.

The closed low currently over the Four Corners will open up as it
slowly lifts northeast into the plains and rejoins the northern
stream flow over the next 24 to 48 hours, with storm chances ending
from west to east by late Saturday as the trough axis swings through
the area. A return to quasizonal flow aloft will occur by Sunday,
with a weak surface front edging southward into the area Sunday
night marking slightly cooler temperatures for Monday.  The dry
period will be rather short lived, however, as by Monday night,
southeasterly surface flow will once again set in across the area,
allowing for increased moisture return from the Gulf.  By Wednesday,
models indicate the dryline forming across the area once again, but
given uncertainties as to the exact location, have maintained the
slight chance to low chance pops across the eastern half of the
forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday.  Yet another closed low
looks to take shape and dive south toward Baja by late in the
extended, with quasizonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest flow
by late Thursday into Friday. However, models diverge in the
handling of this feature heading into next weekend, and thus have
not deviated from the blended guidance at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level low over the Rocky Mountains will spread very dry air
east into the central Permian Basin today. In fact, relative
humidities this morning are already below 15 percent in the
Guadalupe Mountains and parts of Eddy County. However the upper low
is still a good distance from the area so winds in southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas will generally remain below 20 mph. The
exception will be in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
Mountains where stronger mid level winds will be able to mix down
with the help of afternoon heating and it is this area where a Red
Flag Warning has been issued. The upper low is moving very slowly
east so similar conditions are expected to develop tomorrow with
very dry air over much of the area but winds struggling to reach 20
mph. High pressure moving into the area Sunday will bring in enough
moisture to reduce the critical fire weather threat into early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 76  49  77  51  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              80  52  82  52  /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  43  79  47  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  86  58  87  54  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  51  83  53  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  46  68  48  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   73  43  76  46  /  10   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   72  39  73  37  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    79  50  81  52  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  78  50  80  52  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    79  46  81  50  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/84

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371
FXUS64 KMAF 170454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light showers may affect HOB through 09Z but conditions will
remain VFR. South winds will shift from the west or northwest with
a a weak frontal passage after 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62.

DISCUSSION...
Severe storms have moved out of the area to the north and do not
expect any severe storm development overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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606
FXUS64 KMAF 170209
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
909 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch 62.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Severe storms have moved out of the area to the north and do not
expect any severe storm development overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible near MAF the next couple
of hours, but convection has moved east of the other TAF sites
this evening. VFR conditions and south winds shifting from the
west or northwest Friday afternoon with a front.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  77  49  78  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  80  53  81  /  50  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  75  44  78  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  84  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  80  53  81  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  68  46  69  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   46  74  44  75  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   43  72  41  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  51  80  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  56  79  51  79  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    50  80  46  81  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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013
FXUS64 KMAF 162323
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
623 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms possible near MAF the next couple
of hours, but convection has moved east of the other TAF sites
this evening. VFR conditions and south winds shifting from the
west or northwest Friday afternoon with a front.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #62

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms developed in the western low rolling plains which
became strong to severe. The threat for more will continue into
this evening so a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. Other
storms have developed along the Pecos River and though there is
no watch in this area, cannot rule out the possibility that one or
two of these storms could go severe.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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076
FXUS64 KMAF 162156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #62

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms developed in the western low rolling plains which
became strong to severe. The threat for more will continue into
this evening so a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued. Other
storms have developed along the Pecos River and though there is
no watch in this area, cannot rule out the possibility that one or
two of these storms could go severe.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  77  49  78  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  80  53  81  /  50  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  75  44  78  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  84  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  80  53  81  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  68  46  69  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   46  74  44  75  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   43  72  41  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  51  80  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  56  79  51  79  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    50  80  46  81  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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074
FXUS64 KMAF 161851
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another warm day underway today with the potential of severe storms
across eastern zones this afternoon as a dryline sharpens somewhere
near a Lamesa to Midland to just east of Fort Stockton line. An
upper low remains anchored near the Four Corners region today and
may provide some weak upper forcing for ascent to aid in
thunderstorm development. Already seeing CU field developing along
with light radar returns across the eastern PB south into the Lower
Trans Pecos. East of the dryline, 1830Z SPC meso analysis shows
dewpoints in the 50s, CAPE values greater than 2000 J/kg and mid
level LRs aoa 7.5 C/km. Storm mode will likely be supercells
capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly an
isolated tornado. Much of the Permian Basin south through the
Lower Trans Pecos remains highlighted in a Slight Risk as of this
afternoon. There is a possibility the dryline will push east out
of the CWA before severe weather occurs but will just have to wait
and see. In addition, not really anticipating any showers/storms
out west over the higher terrain and SE NM however if one or two
happen to develop this afternoon, gusty winds and little rain can
be expected.

Overnight, models indicate a Pacific front advancing east through
the region, colliding with the retreating dryline around midnight.
This could potentially generate thunderstorms once again across the
eastern half of the CWA early Friday morning through afternoon as
the front pushes east. If this is the case, storms could be strong
to severe given the indicated moisture/instability east of the
boundary.

The upper low will begin to move NE toward the Central Plains Friday
with westerly flow developing aloft through Saturday. The dryline
will hang around far eastern zones Saturday but it looks like we
could potentially see an isolated storm or two before the dryline is
east of the FA. Expect high temps in the upper 70s to near 80
through the weekend however a weak cold front Sunday will cool temps
a couple of degrees for Monday. A brief period of dry conditions
Sunday and Monday before thunderstorm chances return mid week as
upper disturbances move overhead in westerly flow aloft and the
dryline sets up across the region once again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  77  49  78  /  30  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  80  53  81  /  50  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  75  44  78  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  84  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  80  53  81  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  68  46  69  /  10   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   46  74  44  75  /  20  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   43  72  41  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  79  51  80  /  40  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  56  79  51  79  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    50  80  46  81  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27

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546
FXUS64 KMAF 161708
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight over the
forecast area, but may stay to the east of KMAF.  Since probability
is low will hold off on adding TSRA to any of the terminals, but
will amend later this afternoon if necessary.  Also, low
precipitation showers could affect KCNM, KHOB and KPEQ this
afternoon and evening.  If any of these showers materialize, a dry
subcloud layer could result in gusty winds of 30 to 40kt.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide for most, if
not all, of the forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

Cut off low centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
wobble across NM today before lifting northward into CO Friday.
This will increase chance of storms today.  High pressure builds in
behind the low with a few quiet wx days.  Next week another cut off
low works down the West Coast with shortwaves ejecting ahead of it
bringing another shot of storms to the area.

The latest forecasted track of the upper low will take it away from
the area Friday lessening storm chances for the region.  Previous
model runs had taken it directly over the area so today/tonight
should have the best chance of storms for W TX and SE NM.  Friday
and Saturday are now not looking very good for storms except perhaps
the Eastern Permian Basin.

Will have another warm day with more clouds than yesterday.  Temps
will be just a little above normal... highs should be in the 70s and
80s.  Actually expect little change in daily temperatures the next
several days.  Dewpts are in the 50s over the east this morning with
40s out west... so have enough moisture to work with for storms but
would prefer to see these into the 60s.

The surface wind fields look different now that the upper low is
expected to track back to the north.  It appears a Pacific
front/dryline on Friday drags across the area with a west wind
coming in behind it.  A weak Polar front now does not move into the
area until Sunday... will have a north wind but may not see much
cooling with it.

Have late night storms ongoing south of the Pecos River.  There is a
Slight Risk of severe storms today for the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos as thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline
extending across the area.  Supercell storms with large hail and
damaging wind possible and cannot rule out an isolated tornado.
Still have a marginal risk clipping the east Friday and Saturday but
these are farther east now... appears most storms will be east of
the area.  Have trimmed the pops slightly Friday and Saturday as
afraid W TX will quickly be out of the precip.  Low chances of
storms return to the forecast next week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  53  79  48  /  30  40  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              82  56  80  53  /  40  50  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  45  77  44  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  59  85  59  /  30  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  81  53  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  44  70  45  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  46  76  44  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  40  73  39  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  54  80  52  /  30  40  20  10
ODESSA TX                  82  54  80  51  /  30  40  10  10
WINK TX                    85  51  82  46  /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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270
FXUS64 KMAF 161141
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
641 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area through the
forecast period, with only a couple of caveats. First is an area
of high-end MVFR ceilings currently advecting WNW through the Rio
Grande/Pecos Valleys that could impact KFST through sunrise, which
have been handled with a TEMPO. The second caveat would be showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon through tonight, mainly expected
to affect west Texas TAF sites. Reductions to MVFR or IFR
conditions in rain would be possible, as well as hail, though
uncertain timing/terminal impact preclude TSRA mention in current
TAFs. Otherwise, breezy south to southwest winds will continue
today, with gusts diminishing after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Cut off low centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
wobble across NM today before lifting northward into CO Friday.
This will increase chance of storms today.  High pressure builds in
behind the low with a few quiet wx days.  Next week another cut off
low works down the West Coast with shortwaves ejecting ahead of it
bringing another shot of storms to the area.

The latest forecasted track of the upper low will take it away from
the area Friday lessening storm chances for the region.  Previous
model runs had taken it directly over the area so today/tonight
should have the best chance of storms for W TX and SE NM.  Friday
and Saturday are now not looking very good for storms except perhaps
the Eastern Permian Basin.

Will have another warm day with more clouds than yesterday.  Temps
will be just a little above normal... highs should be in the 70s and
80s.  Actually expect little change in daily temperatures the next
several days.  Dewpts are in the 50s over the east this morning with
40s out west... so have enough moisture to work with for storms but
would prefer to see these into the 60s.

The surface wind fields look different now that the upper low is
expected to track back to the north.  It appears a Pacific
front/dryline on Friday drags across the area with a west wind
coming in behind it.  A weak Polar front now does not move into the
area until Sunday... will have a north wind but may not see much
cooling with it.

Have late night storms ongoing south of the Pecos River.  There is a
Slight Risk of severe storms today for the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos as thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline
extending across the area.  Supercell storms with large hail and
damaging wind possible and cannot rule out an isolated tornado.
Still have a marginal risk clipping the east Friday and Saturday but
these are farther east now... appears most storms will be east of
the area.  Have trimmed the pops slightly Friday and Saturday as
afraid W TX will quickly be out of the precip.  Low chances of
storms return to the forecast next week

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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907
FXUS64 KMAF 160904
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Cut off low centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
wobble across NM today before lifting northward into CO Friday.
This will increase chance of storms today.  High pressure builds in
behind the low with a few quiet wx days.  Next week another cut off
low works down the West Coast with shortwaves ejecting ahead of it
bringing another shot of storms to the area.

The latest forecasted track of the upper low will take it away from
the area Friday lessening storm chances for the region.  Previous
model runs had taken it directly over the area so today/tonight
should have the best chance of storms for W TX and SE NM.  Friday
and Saturday are now not looking very good for storms except perhaps
the Eastern Permian Basin.

Will have another warm day with more clouds than yesterday.  Temps
will be just a little above normal... highs should be in the 70s and
80s.  Actually expect little change in daily temperatures the next
several days.  Dewpts are in the 50s over the east this morning with
40s out west... so have enough moisture to work with for storms but
would prefer to see these into the 60s.

The surface wind fields look different now that the upper low is
expected to track back to the north.  It appears a Pacific
front/dryline on Friday drags across the area with a west wind
coming in behind it.  A weak Polar front now does not move into the
area until Sunday... will have a north wind but may not see much
cooling with it.

Have late night storms ongoing south of the Pecos River.  There is a
Slight Risk of severe storms today for the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos as thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline
extending across the area.  Supercell storms with large hail and
damaging wind possible and cannot rule out an isolated tornado.
Still have a marginal risk clipping the east Friday and Saturday but
these are farther east now... appears most storms will be east of
the area.  Have trimmed the pops slightly Friday and Saturday as
afraid W TX will quickly be out of the precip.  Low chances of
storms return to the forecast next week

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  53  79  48  /  30  40  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              82  56  80  53  /  40  50  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  45  77  44  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  59  85  59  /  30  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  81  53  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  44  70  45  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   77  46  76  44  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  40  73  39  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  54  80  52  /  30  40  20  10
ODESSA TX                  82  54  80  51  /  30  40  10  10
WINK TX                    85  51  82  46  /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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595
FXUS64 KMAF 160604
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and storms continue across southwest Texas tonight, though
are expected to remain well south of area TAF sites, with the
exception of KFST which could see some -SHRA over the next few
hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with a scattered cu
deck developing by midmorning Thursday as winds increase from the
south/southwest and become gusty. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Thursday afternoon across much of the area, though
timing/coverage uncertainty precludes mention in current TAFs.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Much warmer today, thanks to abundant sunshine and the return of
southerly flow. Most locations should reach near 80 by the end of
daytime heating later this afternoon. An upper low continues to move
toward the four corners region today resulting in SW flow aloft over
SE NM and W TX. CU quickly developing across SW zones and Davis
mountain region with some light echos showing up on radar. This is
due to a number of things... good daytime heating near the surface
trough axis, upper forcing for ascent from a piece of energy moving
around the southern periphery of the upper low, decent mid level
moisture and estimated mid level LRs near 7 C/km. Expect this
activity to continue to develop near the higher terrain this
afternoon and move east over adjacent plains through this evening
where better moisture/instability will reside. Strong to severe
storms will be possible with hail and strong winds the main threats.
LLJ develops tonight across eastern half of CWA, increasing low level
moisture and instability, which may help maintain thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning. Will continue highest chances
across the east overnight.

Another warm day expected Thursday with a pretty decent shot at
severe storms generally across the easter half of the CWA
during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. The upper low will
meander a little closer on Thursday with some weak upper forcing
increasing over the region through the day. Meanwhile, a
well-defined dryline will set up across the east by the afternoon
hours, serving as a focus for convective initiation. Models continue
to show good low level moisture, CAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg
and mid level LRs aoa 7 C/km so the potential for strong to severe
storms still looks good with large hail, strong winds and possibly
an isolated tornado. Eastern zones remain highlighted in a slight
risk so will go ahead and include mention of severe storms in the
grids. Otherwise, thunderstorms will likely continue into the
overnight hours as the dryline retreats back west.

The upper low will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and
eventually make its way into the Central Plains by the weekend. The
advancing/retreating dryline will hang around Friday and Saturday
and thunderstorm chances will continue for eastern portions of the
region through Saturday. The GFS is no longer advertising a cold
front on Friday and has come more in line with the
NAM/ECMWF/Canadian with high temps near 80 most locations. Beyond
Saturday, precip chances will diminish as dry, westerly flow
develops aloft. A dry, weak cold front will sink south into the
region Sunday night, resulting in slightly cooler temps Monday. Rain
chances return to the forecast Tuesday but will only hold onto
slight chances attm.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns do increase into Sat, but mainly across the far w
where fuels haven`t transitioned to green. Soundings for Thur
indicate RF wx will be most likely in NW reaches of GDP Mtns into
Dunken, farther SE in GDP NP it will be difficult to hit RF wx for
3hrs, mainly due to RH. A few storms may develop within the dry air
Thursday across the southeast plains, western Basin, and Trans
Pecos increaing potential for dry lightning. Upper low will be the n
Fri, but the stronger wind fields will have passed Thursday leaving
dry air in place. Dry air will push into the Basin, but fuels are
mostly green. In the extended any potential for critical fire wx
will remain confined to the GDP Mtns (and low end at that) where the
dry air will mostly persist. Robust winds fields cannot materialize
with upper systems taking such far swd tracks.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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813
FXUS64 KMAF 152302
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers are developing across the area this afternoon
but there is not much instability so lightning remains isolated.
Therefore will carry -SHRA in the TAFs and amend to TS if a
stronger cell heads toward one of the sites. VFR conditions
expected through the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Much warmer today, thanks to abundant sunshine and the return of
southerly flow. Most locations should reach near 80 by the end of
daytime heating later this afternoon. An upper low continues to move
toward the four corners region today resulting in SW flow aloft over
SE NM and W TX. CU quickly developing across SW zones and Davis
mountain region with some light echos showing up on radar. This is
due to a number of things... good daytime heating near the surface
trough axis, upper forcing for ascent from a piece of energy moving
around the southern periphery of the upper low, decent mid level
moisture and estimated mid level LRs near 7 C/km. Expect this
activity to continue to develop near the higher terrain this
afternoon and move east over adjacent plains through this evening
where better moisture/instability will reside. Strong to severe
storms will be possible with hail and strong winds the main threats.
LLJ develops tonight across eastern half of CWA, increasing low level
moisture and instability, which may help maintain thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning. Will continue highest chances
across the east overnight.

Another warm day expected Thursday with a pretty decent shot at
severe storms generally across the easter half of the CWA
during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. The upper low will
meander a little closer on Thursday with some weak upper forcing
increasing over the region through the day. Meanwhile, a
well-defined dryline will set up across the east by the afternoon
hours, serving as a focus for convective initiation. Models continue
to show good low level moisture, CAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg
and mid level LRs aoa 7 C/km so the potential for strong to severe
storms still looks good with large hail, strong winds and possibly
an isolated tornado. Eastern zones remain highlighted in a slight
risk so will go ahead and include mention of severe storms in the
grids. Otherwise, thunderstorms will likely continue into the
overnight hours as the dryline retreats back west.

The upper low will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and
eventually make its way into the Central Plains by the weekend. The
advancing/retreating dryline will hang around Friday and Saturday
and thunderstorm chances will continue for eastern portions of the
region through Saturday. The GFS is no longer advertising a cold
front on Friday and has come more in line with the
NAM/ECMWF/Canadian with high temps near 80 most locations. Beyond
Saturday, precip chances will diminish as dry, westerly flow
develops aloft. A dry, weak cold front will sink south into the
region Sunday night, resulting in slightly cooler temps Monday. Rain
chances return to the forecast Tuesday but will only hold onto
slight chances attm.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns do increase into Sat, but mainly across the far w
where fuels haven`t transitioned to green. Soundings for Thur
indicate RF wx will be most likely in NW reaches of GDP Mtns into
Dunken, farther SE in GDP NP it will be difficult to hit RF wx for
3hrs, mainly due to RH. A few storms may develop within the dry air
Thursday across the southeast plains, western Basin, and Trans
Pecos increaing potential for dry lightning. Upper low will be the n
Fri, but the stronger wind fields will have passed Thursday leaving
dry air in place. Dry air will push into the Basin, but fuels are
mostly green. In the extended any potential for critical fire wx
will remain confined to the GDP Mtns (and low end at that) where the
dry air will mostly persist. Robust winds fields cannot materialize
with upper systems taking such far swd tracks.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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563
FXUS64 KMAF 151922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Much warmer today, thanks to abundant sunshine and the return of
southerly flow. Most locations should reach near 80 by the end of
daytime heating later this afternoon. An upper low continues to move
toward the four corners region today resulting in SW flow aloft over
SE NM and W TX. CU quickly developing across SW zones and Davis
mountain region with some light echos showing up on radar. This is
due to a number of things... good daytime heating near the surface
trough axis, upper forcing for ascent from a piece of energy moving
around the southern periphery of the upper low, decent mid level
moisture and estimated mid level LRs near 7 C/km. Expect this
activity to continue to develop near the higher terrain this
afternoon and move east over adjacent plains through this evening
where better moisture/instability will reside. Strong to severe
storms will be possible with hail and strong winds the main threats.
LLJ develops tonight across eastern half of CWA, increasing low level
moisture and instability, which may help maintain thunderstorms
overnight and into Thursday morning. Will continue highest chances
across the east overnight.

Another warm day expected Thursday with a pretty decent shot at
severe storms generally across the easter half of the CWA
during the late afternoon/evening timeframe. The upper low will
meander a little closer on Thursday with some weak upper forcing
increasing over the region through the day. Meanwhile, a
well-defined dryline will set up across the east by the afternoon
hours, serving as a focus for convective initiation. Models continue
to show good low level moisture, CAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg
and mid level LRs aoa 7 C/km so the potential for strong to severe
storms still looks good with large hail, strong winds and possibly
an isolated tornado. Eastern zones remain highlighted in a slight
risk so will go ahead and include mention of severe storms in the
grids. Otherwise, thunderstorms will likely continue into the
overnight hours as the dryline retreats back west.

The upper low will slowly begin to move eastward Friday and
eventually make its way into the Central Plains by the weekend. The
advancing/retreating dryline will hang around Friday and Saturday
and thunderstorm chances will continue for eastern portions of the
region through Saturday. The GFS is no longer advertising a cold
front on Friday and has come more in line with the
NAM/ECMWF/Canadian with high temps near 80 most locations. Beyond
Saturday, precip chances will diminish as dry, westerly flow
develops aloft. A dry, weak cold front will sink south into the
region Sunday night, resulting in slightly cooler temps Monday. Rain
chances return to the forecast Tuesday but will only hold onto
slight chances attm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire wx concerns do increase into Sat, but mainly across the far w
where fuels haven`t transitioned to green. Soundings for Thur
indicate RF wx will be most likely in NW reaches of GDP Mtns into
Dunken, farther SE in GDP NP it will be difficult to hit RF wx for
3hrs, mainly due to RH. A few storms may develop within the dry air
Thursday across the southeast plains, western Basin, and Trans
Pecos increaing potential for dry lightning. Upper low will be the n
Fri, but the stronger wind fields will have passed Thursday leaving
dry air in place. Dry air will push into the Basin, but fuels are
mostly green. In the extended any potential for critical fire wx
will remain confined to the GDP Mtns (and low end at that) where the
dry air will mostly persist. Robust winds fields cannot materialize
with upper systems taking such far swd tracks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  79  52  76  /  30  40  40  10
BIG SPRING TX              61  81  56  77  /  30  50  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                53  78  45  75  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  83  /  30  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  83  54  78  /  30  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  70  44  67  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   52  75  46  73  /  30  30  30  10
MARFA TX                   46  75  41  73  /  20  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  80  55  77  /  30  40  40  10
ODESSA TX                  60  81  54  77  /  30  40  40  10
WINK TX                    56  83  51  79  /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27

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602
FXUS64 KMAF 151731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A well mixed atmosphere will result in some gusty winds this PM. Mostly
s winds this PM and overnight, with stronger winds at FST, 15-20kts.
Main concern for the overnight is the potential for high based TSRA.
Model QPF continues to suggest tstms will develop and move e-ne. Have
opted to included PROB30 groups at PEQ/INK/HOB/CNM from 03Z-09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
light south winds this morning increasing this afternoon to around
12KT, with some gusts to 18-20KT possible. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight for
much of the area, but have not included mention in TAFs at this
time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Watching a fast approaching upper low diving out of the NW across
the Intermountain West.  This low will wobble as it drops south
across CO and NM and brings a chance of storms to the region.  This
low will spin over NM Thursday through Saturday before weakening
and lifting east Saturday night.  On Sunday look for weak high
pressure aloft to begin to return to the area.

Will start the morning off with clear skies for nearly all of W TX
and SE NM.  Have been keeping an eye on possible fog developing this
morning but so far have not seen any.  Have dewpts in the 40s for
most of the region this morning... depending what model you believe
these will increase into the 50s or 60s in the next 24 hrs so should
be enough for storm development.  Temps will be warmer today with
abundant sunshine... highs today and Thursday will be in the 70s
and 80s. The next weak cold front looks to be a little slower and
not expected to move through until late Friday but should only be
a little cooler.  Look for temps to slowly increase through the
extended.

Looking at the potential of severe wx over the next several days.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast today and increase
tonight.  Pops continue mainly for the east through Saturday night.
The latest SWODY1 leaves the Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos...
and Big Bend/Marfa Plateau in a marginal risk of severe today and
tonight with the better chance being tonight.  Will have some of the
needed ingredients for severe wx such as an approaching upper low...
daytime heating... and decent moisture... but others features such
as a good surface focus look to be lacking.  Orographic lift may be
enough to get storms started but upslope flow not strong.  Will
have enough shear that if storms get started could see a supercell
storm or two.  Thursday looks to be the bigger severe wx day and
SWODY2 has a slight risk east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line
for storms possibly developing along a dryline.  These storms may
actual be during the evening as the dryline retreats westward.
Will highlight severe threat in the HWO.  With a cut off low just
west of the area will have potential for severe wx continuing
Friday and Saturday.  After the low moves east will have a couple
days of quiet wx before storm chances begin to creep back into the
forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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694
FXUS64 KMAF 151120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
light south winds this morning increasing this afternoon to around
12KT, with some gusts to 18-20KT possible. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight for
much of the area, but have not included mention in TAFs at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Watching a fast approaching upper low diving out of the NW across
the Intermountain West.  This low will wobble as it drops south
across CO and NM and brings a chance of storms to the region.  This
low will spin over NM Thursday through Saturday before weakening
and lifting east Saturday night.  On Sunday look for weak high
pressure aloft to begin to return to the area.

Will start the morning off with clear skies for nearly all of W TX
and SE NM.  Have been keeping an eye on possible fog developing this
morning but so far have not seen any.  Have dewpts in the 40s for
most of the region this morning... depending what model you believe
these will increase into the 50s or 60s in the next 24 hrs so should
be enough for storm development.  Temps will be warmer today with
abundant sunshine... highs today and Thursday will be in the 70s
and 80s. The next weak cold front looks to be a little slower and
not expected to move through until late Friday but should only be
a little cooler.  Look for temps to slowly increase through the
extended.

Looking at the potential of severe wx over the next several days.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast today and increase
tonight.  Pops continue mainly for the east through Saturday night.
The latest SWODY1 leaves the Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos...
and Big Bend/Marfa Plateau in a marginal risk of severe today and
tonight with the better chance being tonight.  Will have some of the
needed ingredients for severe wx such as an approaching upper low...
daytime heating... and decent moisture... but others features such
as a good surface focus look to be lacking.  Orograpic lift may be
enough to get storms started but upslope flow not strong.  Will
have enough shear that if storms get started could see a supercell
storm or two.  Thursday looks to be the bigger severe wx day and
SWODY2 has a slight risk east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line
for storms possibly developing along a dryline.  These storms may
actual be during the evening as the dryline retreats westward.
Will hightlight severe threat in the HWO.  With a cut off low just
west of the area will have potential for severe wx continuing
Friday and Saturday.  After the low moves east will have a couple
days of quiet wx before storm chances begin to creep back into the
forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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875
FXUS64 KMAF 150929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Watching a fast approaching upper low diving out of the NW across
the Intermountain West.  This low will wobble as it drops south
across CO and NM and brings a chance of storms to the region.  This
low will spin over NM Thursday through Saturday before weakening
and lifting east Saturday night.  On Sunday look for weak high
pressure aloft to begin to return to the area.

Will start the morning off with clear skies for nearly all of W TX
and SE NM.  Have been keeping an eye on possible fog developing this
morning but so far have not seen any.  Have dewpts in the 40s for
most of the region this morning... depending what model you believe
these will increase into the 50s or 60s in the next 24 hrs so should
be enough for storm development.  Temps will be warmer today with
abundant sunshine... highs today and Thursday will be in the 70s
and 80s. The next weak cold front looks to be a little slower and
not expected to move through until late Friday but should only be
a little cooler.  Look for temps to slowly increase through the
extended.

Looking at the potential of severe wx over the next several days.
Thunderstorm chances return to the forecast today and increase
tonight.  Pops continue mainly for the east through Saturday night.
The latest SWODY1 leaves the Permian Basin... Lower Trans Pecos...
and Big Bend/Marfa Plateau in a marginal risk of severe today and
tonight with the better chance being tonight.  Will have some of the
needed ingredients for severe wx such as an approaching upper low...
daytime heating... and decent moisture... but others features such
as a good surface focus look to be lacking.  Orograpic lift may be
enough to get storms started but upslope flow not strong.  Will
have enough shear that if storms get started could see a supercell
storm or two.  Thursday looks to be the bigger severe wx day and
SWODY2 has a slight risk east of a Seminole to Fort Stockton line
for storms possibly developing along a dryline.  These storms may
actual be during the evening as the dryline retreats westward.
Will hightlight severe threat in the HWO.  With a cut off low just
west of the area will have potential for severe wx continuing
Friday and Saturday.  After the low moves east will have a couple
days of quiet wx before storm chances begin to creep back into the
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  58  80  53  /  20  30  20  40
BIG SPRING TX              81  61  82  55  /  10  30  50  50
CARLSBAD NM                80  52  79  45  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  83  60  85  58  /  20  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  58  83  54  /  20  40  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          72  50  70  44  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  76  47  /  20  20  20  30
MARFA TX                   76  44  76  39  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  60  81  55  /  10  30  30  40
ODESSA TX                  80  60  81  54  /  20  30  30  40
WINK TX                    83  56  84  53  /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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325
FXUS64 KMAF 150534
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light
south winds increasing to around 12KT Wednesday afternoon. While
showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening, have not included in the TAF at this time due to
uncertainties in timing/coverage.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
After a relatively cool morning (lows in the 40s), afternoon
temperatures have been slow to warm due to the stubborn cloud cover.
Expecting clouds to thin through peak heating and temps should
increase into the 60s most places this afternoon. Most areas remain
dry this afternoon however areas across the higher terrain could
still see an isolated thunderstorm or two before the day is over.
Tonight, expect clearing skies and lows generally in the mid 40s to
low 50s. Much warmer Wednesday/Thursday with decent south/southwest
winds in place due to lee troughing extending southward toward the
region.

Attention then turns to an upper trough entering the PacNW
today. Models show this feature cutting off and diving south toward
the four corners region by Wednesday night, then meandering just NW
of the CWA through the end of the week. Meanwhile, models generate
some scattered QPF on Wednesday but not really seeing a clear focus
for this precip. That being said, good daytime heating near the
surface trough axis may be enough to warrant slight chances across
western zones during the afternoon and early evening hours. It looks
to be extremely dry in the lower levels but with somewhat decent mid
level moisture and mid level LRs pushing 9 C/km, dry thunderstorms
producing very strong winds would be the main threat. Thunderstorm
chances look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper
low meanders east, increasing upper forcing for ascent across the
region. In addition, a dryline will setup across eastern zones
Thursday afternoon, serving as a focus for thunderstorms across
these areas. Could definitely see a potential for severe weather
during this time with models showing CAPE values around 1500-2000
J/kg (3000 J/kg according to the NAM) at times and mid level LRs
pushing 8 C/km. Will hold off on mention of severe in the grids and
continue to monitor the potential closely.

Friday, thunderstorm chances will be confined to eastern zones where
best upper forcing and moisture reside as the upper low slowly shifts
eastward. The GFS remains the outlier in bringing the upper low
across the region quicker, ending precip earlier Friday with the
passage of a cold front. On the other hand the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian
hold the upper low back, potentially holding onto rain chances
across the east through Saturday. For now, will continue with at
least slight chance PoPs across the north and east through Saturday.
WRT high temps on Friday, will continue to forecast above MEX
guidance given the GFS is the only model advertising the cold front
attm. Beyond Saturday, precip chances will diminish as the upper low
shifts east of the region. Dry, westerly flow aloft will develop by
Sunday with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Models
suggest a dry cold front moving through the region Monday, cooling
temps ever so slightly. This will be short-lived with south winds
quickly returning Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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787
FXUS64 KMAF 142255
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
After a relatively cool morning (lows in the 40s), afternoon
temperatures have been slow to warm due to the stubborn cloud cover.
Expecting clouds to thin through peak heating and temps should
increase into the 60s most places this afternoon. Most areas remain
dry this afternoon however areas across the higher terrain could
still see an isolated thunderstorm or two before the day is over.
Tonight, expect clearing skies and lows generally in the mid 40s to
low 50s. Much warmer Wednesday/Thursday with decent south/southwest
winds in place due to lee troughing extending southward toward the
region.

Attention then turns to an upper trough entering the PacNW
today. Models show this feature cutting off and diving south toward
the four corners region by Wednesday night, then meandering just NW
of the CWA through the end of the week. Meanwhile, models generate
some scattered QPF on Wednesday but not really seeing a clear focus
for this precip. That being said, good daytime heating near the
surface trough axis may be enough to warrant slight chances across
western zones during the afternoon and early evening hours. It looks
to be extremely dry in the lower levels but with somewhat decent mid
level moisture and mid level LRs pushing 9 C/km, dry thunderstorms
producing very strong winds would be the main threat. Thunderstorm
chances look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper
low meanders east, increasing upper forcing for ascent across the
region. In addition, a dryline will setup across eastern zones
Thursday afternoon, serving as a focus for thunderstorms across
these areas. Could definitely see a potential for severe weather
during this time with models showing CAPE values around 1500-2000
J/kg (3000 J/kg according to the NAM) at times and mid level LRs
pushing 8 C/km. Will hold off on mention of severe in the grids and
continue to monitor the potential closely.

Friday, thunderstorm chances will be confined to eastern zones where
best upper forcing and moisture reside as the upper low slowly shifts
eastward. The GFS remains the outlier in bringing the upper low
across the region quicker, ending precip earlier Friday with the
passage of a cold front. On the other hand the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian
hold the upper low back, potentially holding onto rain chances
across the east through Saturday. For now, will continue with at
least slight chance PoPs across the north and east through Saturday.
WRT high temps on Friday, will continue to forecast above MEX
guidance given the GFS is the only model advertising the cold front
attm. Beyond Saturday, precip chances will diminish as the upper low
shifts east of the region. Dry, westerly flow aloft will develop by
Sunday with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Models
suggest a dry cold front moving through the region Monday, cooling
temps ever so slightly. This will be short-lived with south winds
quickly returning Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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450
FXUS64 KMAF 141944
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
After a relatively cool morning (lows in the 40s), afternoon
temperatures have been slow to warm due to the stubborn cloud cover.
Expecting clouds to thin through peak heating and temps should
increase into the 60s most places this afternoon. Most areas remain
dry this afternoon however areas across the higher terrain could
still see an isolated thunderstorm or two before the day is over.
Tonight, expect clearing skies and lows generally in the mid 40s to
low 50s. Much warmer Wednesday/Thursday with decent south/southwest
winds in place due to lee troughing extending southward toward the
region.

Attention then turns to an upper trough entering the PacNW
today. Models show this feature cutting off and diving south toward
the four corners region by Wednesday night, then meandering just NW
of the CWA through the end of the week. Meanwhile, models generate
some scattered QPF on Wednesday but not really seeing a clear focus
for this precip. That being said, good daytime heating near the
surface trough axis may be enough to warrant slight chances across
western zones during the afternoon and early evening hours. It looks
to be extremely dry in the lower levels but with somewhat decent mid
level moisture and mid level LRs pushing 9 C/km, dry thunderstorms
producing very strong winds would be the main threat. Thunderstorm
chances look to continue Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper
low meanders east, increasing upper forcing for ascent across the
region. In addition, a dryline will setup across eastern zones
Thursday afternoon, serving as a focus for thunderstorms across
these areas. Could definitely see a potential for severe weather
during this time with models showing CAPE values around 1500-2000
J/kg (3000 J/kg according to the NAM) at times and mid level LRs
pushing 8 C/km. Will hold off on mention of severe in the grids and
continue to monitor the potential closely.

Friday, thunderstorm chances will be confined to eastern zones where
best upper forcing and moisture reside as the upper low slowly shifts
eastward. The GFS remains the outlier in bringing the upper low
across the region quicker, ending precip earlier Friday with the
passage of a cold front. On the other hand the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian
hold the upper low back, potentially holding onto rain chances
across the east through Saturday. For now, will continue with at
least slight chance PoPs across the north and east through Saturday.
WRT high temps on Friday, will continue to forecast above MEX
guidance given the GFS is the only model advertising the cold front
attm. Beyond Saturday, precip chances will diminish as the upper low
shifts east of the region. Dry, westerly flow aloft will develop by
Sunday with highs warming into the upper 70s and low 80s. Models
suggest a dry cold front moving through the region Monday, cooling
temps ever so slightly. This will be short-lived with south winds
quickly returning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 48  80  56  78  /   0  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              50  83  61  81  /   0  10  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                46  82  52  77  /   0  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  54  83  61  84  /   0  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           51  83  58  82  /   0  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  74  50  69  /   0  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   46  79  51  74  /   0  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   41  75  47  75  /   0  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  82  61  80  /   0  10  30  30
ODESSA TX                  49  82  60  80  /   0  20  30  30
WINK TX                    48  83  56  83  /   0  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/27

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978
FXUS64 KMAF 141707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are slow to dissipate at MAF/FST/INK/PEQ, but CIGS will
gradually lift to at least 040 by 21Z. VFR expected thru the night
with winds less than 10kts. Winds will increase approx 15Z Wed
with another chance for SHRA/TSRA Wed PM, but too low of a probability
to included in TAFS for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Light precipitation across the area has come to an end, leaving a
wide swath of MVFR ceilings in place affecting west Texas TAF
sites. Expect a gradual improvement to VFR conditions for KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ by mid-morning, with KFST likely remaining MVFR
until early afternoon before improving. This afternoon onward, VFR
conditions will prevail across all TAF sites, with winds becoming
light and variable to light southeasterly through the end of the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought rain to the area has moved off to the
northeast this morning.  The next upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast today quickly moving east before developing into a closed
low over WY early Wednesday.  This low cuts off and drops southward
late Wednesday and Thursday moving over the region Friday.  This low
slowly wobbles east on Saturday with high pressure aloft building in
behind it.

The upper low produced heavy rain yesterday across portions of the
Northern Permian Basin that resulted in flash flooding.  Radar indicates
a number of locations across Gaines... Dawson... Borden and Mitchell
received 5 to 6 inches of rain with the heaviest of up to 9 inches
that fell in Dawson County south of Lamesa.  Will see how this
compares to measured amounts as reports drift in this morning.

Will have post frontal conditions today with cool morning temps and
a chilly north wind.  Later today the wind should come back around
to the south as a new leeside trough develops.  This will also aid
the warmup.  Highs generally in the 60s today with 70s/80s on
Wednesday and Thursday.  Models bring another front into the area
Thursday but want to hang it up over the CWA and not push it
through the region till Friday.

Will have more chances of rain this week as the wet pattern of
numerous lows/troughs continues.  Midland International Airport
only reported .03 inch of rain yesterday but is over 3 inches above
normal in precipitation for the year.  Today should be mainly dry
but models do develop some light precip over the Davis Mtns in the
afternoon... will keep mention of isolated storms there.  Model qpf
starts developing more significant precip on Wednesday expanding
through the night.  Some disagreement as to precip chances on
Thursday as some models going mainly dry while others develop lots
of precip over the east.  Will also have the frontal boundary in the
area that could be a focus for convection Thursday/Friday.  With the
upper low wandering around the area there will be a decent chance of
storms Wednesday through Friday with pops decreasing on Saturday as
it moves east.  May see some strong to severe storms late Wednesday
through Friday and will mention in HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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671
FXUS64 KMAF 141112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light precipitation across the area has come to an end, leaving a
wide swath of MVFR ceilings in place affecting west Texas TAF
sites. Expect a gradual improvement to VFR conditions for KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ by mid-morning, with KFST likely remaining MVFR
until early afternoon before improving. This afternoon onward, VFR
conditions will prevail across all TAF sites, with winds becoming
light and variable to light southeasterly through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought rain to the area has moved off to the
northeast this morning.  The next upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast today quickly moving east before developing into a closed
low over WY early Wednesday.  This low cuts off and drops southward
late Wednesday and Thursday moving over the region Friday.  This low
slowly wobbles east on Saturday with high pressure aloft building in
behind it.

The upper low produced heavy rain yesterday across portions of the
Northern Permian Basin that resulted in flash flooding.  Radar indicates
a number of locations across Gaines... Dawson... Borden and Mitchell
received 5 to 6 inches of rain with the heaviest of up to 9 inches
that fell in Dawson County south of Lamesa.  Will see how this
compares to measured amounts as reports drift in this morning.

Will have post frontal conditions today with cool morning temps and
a chilly north wind.  Later today the wind should come back around
to the south as a new leeside trough develops.  This will also aid
the warmup.  Highs generally in the 60s today with 70s/80s on
Wednesday and Thursday.  Models bring another front into the area
Thursday but want to hang it up over the CWA and not push it
through the region till Friday.

Will have more chances of rain this week as the wet pattern of
numerous lows/troughs continues.  Midland International Airport
only reported .03 inch of rain yesterday but is over 3 inches above
normal in precipitation for the year.  Today should be mainly dry
but models do develop some light precip over the Davis Mtns in the
afternoon... will keep mention of isolated storms there.  Model qpf
starts developing more significant precip on Wednesday expanding
through the night.  Some disagreement as to precip chances on
Thursday as some models going mainly dry while others develop lots
of precip over the east.  Will also have the frontal boundary in the
area that could be a focus for convection Thursday/Friday.  With the
upper low wandering around the area there will be a decent chance of
storms Wednesday through Friday with pops decreasing on Saturday as
it moves east.  May see some strong to severe storms late Wednesday
through Friday and will mention in HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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522
FXUS64 KMAF 140907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
407 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought rain to the area has moved off to the
northeast this morning.  The next upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast today quickly moving east before developing into a closed
low over WY early Wednesday.  This low cuts off and drops southward
late Wednesday and Thursday moving over the region Friday.  This low
slowly wobbles east on Saturday with high pressure aloft building in
behind it.

The upper low produced heavy rain yesterday across portions of the
Northern Permian Basin that resulted in flash flooding.  Radar indicates
a number of locations across Gaines... Dawson... Borden and Mitchell
received 5 to 6 inches of rain with the heaviest of up to 9 inches
that fell in Dawson County south of Lamesa.  Will see how this
compares to measured amounts as reports drift in this morning.

Will have post frontal conditions today with cool morning temps and
a chilly north wind.  Later today the wind should come back around
to the south as a new leeside trough develops.  This will also aid
the warmup.  Highs generally in the 60s today with 70s/80s on
Wednesday and Thursday.  Models bring another front into the area
Thursday but want to hang it up over the CWA and not push it
through the region till Friday.

Will have more chances of rain this week as the wet pattern of
numerous lows/troughs continues.  Midland International Airport
only reported .03 inch of rain yesterday but is over 3 inches above
normal in precipitation for the year.  Today should be mainly dry
but models do develop some light precip over the Davis Mtns in the
afternoon... will keep mention of isolated storms there.  Model qpf
starts developing more significant precip on Wednesday expanding
through the night.  Some disagreement as to precip chances on
Thursday as some models going mainly dry while others develop lots
of precip over the east.  Will also have the frontal boundary in the
area that could be a focus for convection Thursday/Friday.  With the
upper low wandering around the area there will be a decent chance of
storms Wednesday through Friday with pops decreasing on Saturday as
it moves east.  May see some strong to severe storms late Wednesday
through Friday and will mention in HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  49  80  57  /  10  10  10  30
BIG SPRING TX              66  50  82  60  /   0  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                66  47  81  52  /  10   0  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  74  55  84  63  /  10  10  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  52  83  59  /  10  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  49  72  50  /  10   0  20  20
HOBBS NM                   64  46  79  52  /  10   0  20  30
MARFA TX                   65  40  75  47  /  10  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  50  81  60  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  66  51  81  59  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                    68  49  84  56  /  10   0  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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016
FXUS64 KMAF 140553
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Some patchy light showers continue to slowly drift south through
the area, though are expected to continue to weaken over the next
couple of hours. West Texas TAF sites will continue to see
prevailing MVFR conditions tonight, with brief IFR possible in
passing showers. An improvement to VFR conditions is expected by
Tuesday morning for KMAF, KINK, and KPEQ, with KFST improving by
around 18Z Tuesday. Breezy northeast winds will diminish over the
next several hours as well, and will become light and variable by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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452
FXUS64 KMAF 140223 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
919 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel the Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The heavy rain has moved out of the area with mostly light rain
across the Permian Basin now.  Due to the decrease in rain intensity
and no more heavy rain expected through tonight across the area,
have decided to cancel the Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the
area through the evening hours and into the overnight period.  There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the area Tuesday
afternoon but chances are too small to include in the TAFs at this
time.  Low ceilings will develop and move into much of the area this
evening and are expected to remain into the morning hours for MAF,
FST, and PEQ.  Winds will remain gusty out of the north through this
evening and will decrease in strength later tonight.  Winds will
become light and variable Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include Mitchell
and Scurry Counties.

DISCUSSION...

Due to heavy rainfall across the Western Low Rolling Plains, have
decided to expanded the Flash Flood Watch.  Have received recent
reports of heavy rainfall across this area and additional rainfall
is expected this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low INVOF Permian Basin with cold front
already into the PB. Cold pool aloft/surface boundary/abundant deep
mstr proving to be a good combination for SHRA/TSRA development.
Boundary and slow movement of upper low is providing enhancement to
heavy rain potential. A few severe storms are possible too with
CAPES around 1500 J/KG, deep shear of 35kts, and SRH enhancement
along boundary. We`ve already received a report of a funnel in
Howard Co, which we expect is more a "tropical funnel" type than
otherwise, and we expect more reports of these. The flash flood
watch will continue into the mid evening. Categorical PoPs this
afternoon will transition to scattered-likely after 00Z with heavy
rain/severe storms warranted until mid evening. Unseasonably cool
temps will persist into Tue PM, even though precip will end Tue.
Precip quickly returns to the fcst Wed PM as deepening trof moves
into the 4 Corners area with very steep LR/s across NM and W TX.
Dwpnts will only be around 40, so high based windy/little precip
producing showers/storms will be favored, at least initially. The
upper low will or may become closed over NM Thur PM and precip will
be warranted across ern half of the CWFA within deeper mstr. Upper
low lingers across the plains into Friday so precip is still
warranted, but uncertainty in position/location make PoP fcst
difficult. GFS kicks out low late Fri/Sat and ECMWF holds it west a
little longer, so blended fcst seems best way to go.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  64  48  80  /  30  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              48  66  50  82  /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  66  47  80  /  30  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  55  74  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  68  51  82  /  30  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  62  48  72  /  30  10   0  20
HOBBS NM                   43  63  45  78  /  30  10   0  20
MARFA TX                   42  65  41  74  /  20  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  66  49  81  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  46  66  50  81  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    47  68  48  84  /  20  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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611
FXUS64 KMAF 132307 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the
area through the evening hours and into the overnight period.  There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the area Tuesday
afternoon but chances are too small to include in the TAFs at this
time.  Low ceilings will develop and move into much of the area this
evening and are expected to remain into the morning hours for MAF,
FST, and PEQ.  Winds will remain gusty out of the north through this
evening and will decrease in strength later tonight.  Winds will
become light and variable Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include Mitchell
and Scurry Counties.

DISCUSSION...

Due to heavy rainfall across the Western Low Rolling Plains, have
decided to expanded the Flash Flood Watch.  Have received recent
reports of heavy rainfall across this area and additional rainfall
is expected this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low INVOF Permian Basin with cold front
already into the PB. Cold pool aloft/surface boundary/abundant deep
mstr proving to be a good combination for SHRA/TSRA development.
Boundary and slow movement of upper low is providing enhancement to
heavy rain potential. A few severe storms are possible too with
CAPES around 1500 J/KG, deep shear of 35kts, and SRH enhancement
along boundary. We`ve already received a report of a funnel in
Howard Co, which we expect is more a "tropical funnel" type than
otherwise, and we expect more reports of these. The flash flood
watch will continue into the mid evening. Categorical PoPs this
afternoon will transition to scattered-likely after 00Z with heavy
rain/severe storms warranted until mid evening. Unseasonably cool
temps will persist into Tue PM, even though precip will end Tue.
Precip quickly returns to the fcst Wed PM as deepening trof moves
into the 4 Corners area with very steep LR/s across NM and W TX.
Dwpnts will only be around 40, so high based windy/little precip
producing showers/storms will be favored, at least initially. The
upper low will or may become closed over NM Thur PM and precip will
be warranted across ern half of the CWFA within deeper mstr. Upper
low lingers across the plains into Friday so precip is still
warranted, but uncertainty in position/location make PoP fcst
difficult. GFS kicks out low late Fri/Sat and ECMWF holds it west a
little longer, so blended fcst seems best way to go.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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491
FXUS64 KMAF 132107 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
402 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include Mitchell
and Scurry Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Due to heavy rainfall across the Western Low Rolling Plains, have
decided to expanded the Flash Flood Watch.  Have received recent
reports of heavy rainfall across this area and additional rainfall
is expected this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low INVOF Permian Basin with cold front
already into the PB. Cold pool aloft/surface boundary/abundant deep
mstr proving to be a good combination for SHRA/TSRA development.
Boundary and slow movement of upper low is providing enhancement to
heavy rain potential. A few severe storms are possible too with
CAPES around 1500 J/KG, deep shear of 35kts, and SRH enhancement
along boundary. We`ve already received a report of a funnel in
Howard Co, which we expect is more a "tropical funnel" type than
otherwise, and we expect more reports of these. The flash flood
watch will continue into the mid evening. Categorical PoPs this
afternoon will transition to scattered-likely after 00Z with heavy
rain/severe storms warranted until mid evening. Unseasonably cool
temps will persist into Tue PM, even though precip will end Tue.
Precip quickly returns to the fcst Wed PM as deepening trof moves
into the 4 Corners area with very steep LR/s across NM and W TX.
Dwpnts will only be around 40, so high based windy/little precip
producing showers/storms will be favored, at least initially. The
upper low will or may become closed over NM Thur PM and precip will
be warranted across ern half of the CWFA within deeper mstr. Upper
low lingers across the plains into Friday so precip is still
warranted, but uncertainty in position/location make PoP fcst
difficult. GFS kicks out low late Fri/Sat and ECMWF holds it west a
little longer, so blended fcst seems best way to go.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  64  48  80  /  60  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              48  66  50  82  /  60  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  66  47  80  /  40  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  55  74  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  68  51  82  /  40  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  62  48  72  /  40  10   0  20
HOBBS NM                   43  63  45  78  /  50  10   0  20
MARFA TX                   42  65  41  74  /  30  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  66  49  81  /  60  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  46  66  50  81  /  60  10  10  10
WINK TX                    47  68  48  84  /  50  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99/99

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748
FXUS64 KMAF 131902 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
202 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low INVOF Permian Basin with cold front
already into the PB. Cold pool aloft/surface boundary/abundant deep
mstr proving to be a good combination for SHRA/TSRA development.
Boundary and slow movement of upper low is providing enhancement to
heavy rain potential. A few severe storms are possible too with
CAPES around 1500 J/KG, deep shear of 35kts, and SRH enhancement
along boundary. We`ve already received a report of a funnel in
Howard Co, which we expect is more a "tropical funnel" type than
otherwise, and we expect more reports of these. The flash flood
watch will continue into the mid evening. Categorical PoPs this
afternoon will transition to scattered-likely after 00Z with heavy
rain/severe storms warranted until mid evening. Unseasonably cool
temps will persist into Tue PM, even though precip will end Tue.
Precip quickly returns to the fcst Wed PM as deepening trof moves
into the 4 Corners area with very steep LR/s across NM and W TX.
Dwpnts will only be around 40, so high based windy/little precip
producing showers/storms will be favored, at least initially. The
upper low will or may become closed over NM Thur PM and precip will
be warranted across ern half of the CWFA within deeper mstr. Upper
low lingers across the plains into Friday so precip is still
warranted, but uncertainty in position/location make PoP fcst
difficult. GFS kicks out low late Fri/Sat and ECMWF holds it west a
little longer, so blended fcst seems best way to go.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  64  48  80  /  60  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              48  66  50  82  /  60  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  66  47  80  /  40  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  55  74  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  68  51  82  /  40  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  62  48  72  /  40  10   0  20
HOBBS NM                   43  63  45  78  /  50  10   0  20
MARFA TX                   42  65  41  74  /  30  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  66  49  81  /  60  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  46  66  50  81  /  60  10  10  10
WINK TX                    47  68  48  84  /  50  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Reagan...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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534
FXUS64 KMAF 131736
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is MVFR cigs and
TSRA affecting terminals through this afternoon and into tonight as
a cold front slowly sinks south. At 13/17Z, the cold front had
already moved through HOB, CNM and will be moving through MAF
shortly. Gusty north winds can be expected behind the front, lasting
through much of the day then diminishing later tonight. Currently
have showers and thunderstorms across northern Permian Basin and
southeast NM this morning. This activity is expected to spread
southward this afternoon as the front pushes south. Thunderstorms
may produce gusty and erratic winds at time. Terminals will likely
see temporary periods of MVFR through the afternoon, becoming more
prevalent this evening. Otherwise, rain activity looks to come to
an end this evening with VFR conditions returning early Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

UPDATE...
Update sent to increase PoPs and issue a flash flood watch.

DISCUSSION...
Hi-resolution model data is convincing enough to increase PoPs,
include heavy rain, and issue a Flash Flood Watch for much of the
PB. NAM12, HRRR, etc are showing that the combination of the front
and upper low will result in additional SHRA/TSRA development into
the afternoon, eventually into the I-20 Corridor. Much of the
central PB had heavy rain last night and we expect it won`t take
too much more to have flooding/flash flooding problems develop.
Watch is in effect until mid-late evening. Local amounts may near
2 inches.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

UPDATE...
Update has been sent to increase winds.

DISCUSSION...
Surface winds across N Lea Co and just n of CWFA have increased to
sustained 20-25 mph with G30-40 mph as such have adjusted winds
upward and speed up the NE wind shift. 3hr pressure rises are not
that impressive to the n, about 3 mb/3hr, there may be some enhancement
due to presence of storms across SE NM. MAV is much more aggressive
with winds and we`ll keep watch to see if they need increased further.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
After several dry years it is nice to finally get into a little
bit of a wet pattern here in west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
One upper low exits the area today and another forms and drops
into New Mexico keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for much of the seven day forecast.

The first upper low is currently over southern New Mexico and will
slowly move east into west Texas later today. An associated
surface cold front is near LBB this morning, but will make only
slow progress south reaching the I-20 corridor by 00Z. Most
models are showing widespread rain developing along and north of
the front this afternoon which could create some localized
flooding problems for the northern Permian Basin and southeastern
New Mexico. The focus of the precip will shift east tonight as the
low moves into central Texas but wrap around rainfall will still
be possible mainly north of I-10.

GFS and ECMWF guidance are showing very strong gap winds
developing at GDP tonight which is surprising. 850mb wind speed
and direction is not favorable for strong winds, the airmass
behind the front is not very cold as seen with Dodge City, KS
currently only 4 degrees cooler than Midland, and though (in a
rarity) the northeast flow is deep due to the presence of the
upper low it is not particularly strong. It appears that the
models are counting on a cold pool developing in heavy
precipitation south of Lubbock to reinforce the cold air in the
lee of the mountains producing the pressure gradient needed for
gap winds. Confidence in this scenario playing out is not high so
decided against a watch or warning at this time though it is
possible brief, low end warning criteria winds could be seen
mainly from 00-06Z.

Things finally calm down a little Tuesday as the low exits the
area but as stated previously, another low quickly drops south
along the NM/AZ border bringing a return of rain chances on
Wednesday. This low will move slowly like it`s predecessor, moving
only from the four corners region Wednesday to Albuquerque in 48
hours. The eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will have
the best rain chances due to better low level moisture
availability but cannot rule out moisture holding all the way up
against the mountains in southeast New Mexico giving areas farther
west a chance for rain as well. The GFS has been trying to push
dry air too far east lately and appears to be doing it again with
this system so kept PoPs back farther west than it indicates.
Models do not show much instability late in the week for severe
thunderstorms but this could quickly change.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Reagan...
     Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

27

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828
FXUS64 KMAF 131505 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1005 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.UPDATE...
Update sent to increase PoPs and issue a flash flood watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Hi-resolution model data is convincing enough to increase PoPs,
include heavy rain, and issue a Flash Flood Watch for much of the
PB. NAM12, HRRR, etc are showing that the combination of the front
and upper low will result in additional SHRA/TSRA development into
the afternoon, eventually into the I-20 Corridor. Much of the
central PB had heavy rain last night and we expect it won`t take
too much more to have flooding/flash flooding problems develop.
Watch is in effect until mid-late evening. Local amounts may near
2 inches.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

UPDATE...
Update has been sent to increase winds.

DISCUSSION...
Surface winds across N Lea Co and just n of CWFA have increased to
sustained 20-25 mph with G30-40 mph as such have adjusted winds
upward and speed up the NE wind shift. 3hr pressure rises are not
that impressive to the n, about 3 mb/3hr, there may be some enhancement
due to presence of storms across SE NM. MAV is much more agressive
with winds and we`ll keep watch to see if they need increased further.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across New Mexico will combine with a
southward moving cold front in the southern Texas Panhandle to
produce gradual deteriorating flight conditions across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Ahead
of the front, light winds and moist air could result in Tempo
MVFR ceilings and fog through 15z at KMAF, KINK, KHOB and KCNM.
Behind the cold front north to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph
with higher gusts is expected to develop at KCNM and KHOB my mid
morning and spread south to KMAF, KINK and KPEQ around 21z and
KFST around 23z. Behind the front expecting Tempo MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms for a few hours at all terminals. By 03z
tonight expecting all terminals to have prevailing MVFR ceilings
with light rain. Winds should diminish by mid to late evening to
10 to 20 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
After several dry years it is nice to finally get into a little
bit of a wet pattern here in west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
One upper low exits the area today and another forms and drops
into New Mexico keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for much of the seven day forecast.

The first upper low is currently over southern New Mexico and will
slowly move east into west Texas later today. An associated
surface cold front is near LBB this morning, but will make only
slow progress south reaching the I-20 corridor by 00Z. Most
models are showing widespread rain developing along and north of
the front this afternoon which could create some localized
flooding problems for the northern Permian Basin and southeastern
New Mexico. The focus of the precip will shift east tonight as the
low moves into central Texas but wrap around rainfall will still
be possible mainly north of I-10.

GFS and ECMWF guidance are showing very strong gap winds
developing at GDP tonight which is surprising. 850mb wind speed
and direction is not favorable for strong winds, the airmass
behind the front is not very cold as seen with Dodge City, KS
currently only 4 degrees cooler than Midland, and though (in a
rarity) the northeast flow is deep due to the presence of the
upper low it is not particularly strong. It appears that the
models are counting on a cold pool developing in heavy
precipitation south of Lubbock to reinforce the cold air in the
lee of the mountains producing the pressure gradient needed for
gap winds. Confidence in this scenario playing out is not high so
decided against a watch or warning at this time though it is
possible brief, low end warning criteria winds could be seen
mainly from 00-06Z.

Things finally calm down a little Tuesday as the low exits the
area but as stated previously, another low quickly drops south
along the NM/AZ border bringing a return of rain chances on
Wednesday. This low will move slowly like it`s predecessor, moving
only from the four corners region Wednesday to Albuquerque in 48
hours. The eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will have
the best rain chances due to better low level moisture
availabilty but cannot rule out moisture holding all the way up
against the mountains in southeast New Mexico giving areas farther
west a chance for rain as well. The GFS has been trying to push
dry air too far east lately and appears to be doing it again with
this system so kept PoPs back farther west than it indicates.
Models do not show much instability late in the week for severe
thunderstorms but this could quickly change.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  47  64  49  /  90  50  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              72  50  65  50  /  90  60  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  47  66  47  /  80  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  56  74  55  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  50  68  52  /  50  40  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  42  62  48  /  70  40  10   0
HOBBS NM                   63  45  63  47  /  90  50  10   0
MARFA TX                   65  44  65  44  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  48  66  50  /  80  50  10  10
ODESSA TX                  71  49  66  50  /  80  50  10  10
WINK TX                    71  50  68  50  /  70  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea
     County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...Reagan...Upton...
     Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

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943
FXUS64 KMAF 131411 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
911 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.UPDATE...
Update has been sent to increase winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface winds across N Lea Co and just n of CWFA have increased to
sustained 20-25 mph with G30-40 mph as such have adjusted winds
upward and speed up the NE wind shift. 3hr pressure rises are not
that impressive to the n, about 3 mb/3hr, there may be some enhancement
due to presence of storms across SE NM. MAV is much more agressive
with winds and we`ll keep watch to see if they need increased further.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across New Mexico will combine with a
southward moving cold front in the southern Texas Panhandle to
produce gradual deteriorating flight conditions across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Ahead
of the front, light winds and moist air could result in Tempo
MVFR ceilings and fog through 15z at KMAF, KINK, KHOB and KCNM.
Behind the cold front north to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph
with higher gusts is expected to develop at KCNM and KHOB my mid
morning and spread south to KMAF, KINK and KPEQ around 21z and
KFST around 23z. Behind the front expecting Tempo MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms for a few hours at all terminals. By 03z
tonight expecting all terminals to have prevailing MVFR ceilings
with light rain. Winds should diminish by mid to late evening to
10 to 20 mph.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
After several dry years it is nice to finally get into a little
bit of a wet pattern here in west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
One upper low exits the area today and another forms and drops
into New Mexico keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for much of the seven day forecast.

The first upper low is currently over southern New Mexico and will
slowly move east into west Texas later today. An associated
surface cold front is near LBB this morning, but will make only
slow progress south reaching the I-20 corridor by 00Z. Most
models are showing widespread rain developing along and north of
the front this afternoon which could create some localized
flooding problems for the northern Permian Basin and southeastern
New Mexico. The focus of the precip will shift east tonight as the
low moves into central Texas but wrap around rainfall will still
be possible mainly north of I-10.

GFS and ECMWF guidance are showing very strong gap winds
developing at GDP tonight which is surprising. 850mb wind speed
and direction is not favorable for strong winds, the airmass
behind the front is not very cold as seen with Dodge City, KS
currently only 4 degrees cooler than Midland, and though (in a
rarity) the northeast flow is deep due to the presence of the
upper low it is not particularly strong. It appears that the
models are counting on a cold pool developing in heavy
precipitation south of Lubbock to reinforce the cold air in the
lee of the mountains producing the pressure gradient needed for
gap winds. Confidence in this scenario playing out is not high so
decided against a watch or warning at this time though it is
possible brief, low end warning criteria winds could be seen
mainly from 00-06Z.

Things finally calm down a little Tuesday as the low exits the
area but as stated previously, another low quickly drops south
along the NM/AZ border bringing a return of rain chances on
Wednesday. This low will move slowly like it`s predecessor, moving
only from the four corners region Wednesday to Albuquerque in 48
hours. The eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will have
the best rain chances due to better low level moisture
availabilty but cannot rule out moisture holding all the way up
against the mountains in southeast New Mexico giving areas farther
west a chance for rain as well. The GFS has been trying to push
dry air too far east lately and appears to be doing it again with
this system so kept PoPs back farther west than it indicates.
Models do not show much instability late in the week for severe
thunderstorms but this could quickly change.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  47  64  49  /  60  50  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              72  50  65  50  /  50  60  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  47  66  47  /  60  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  56  74  55  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  50  68  52  /  20  40  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  42  62  48  /  50  40  10   0
HOBBS NM                   63  45  63  47  /  70  50  10   0
MARFA TX                   65  44  65  44  /  20  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  48  66  50  /  40  50  10  10
ODESSA TX                  71  49  66  50  /  40  50  10  10
WINK TX                    71  50  68  50  /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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341
FXUS64 KMAF 131137
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
637 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across New Mexico will combine with a
southward moving cold front in the southern Texas Panhandle to
produce gradual deteriorating flight conditions across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Ahead
of the front, light winds and moist air could result in Tempo
MVFR ceilings and fog through 15z at KMAF, KINK, KHOB and KCNM.
Behind the cold front north to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph
with higher gusts is expected to develop at KCNM and KHOB my mid
morning and spread south to KMAF, KINK and KPEQ around 21z and
KFST around 23z. Behind the front expecting Tempo MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms for a few hours at all terminals. By 03z
tonight expecting all terminals to have prevailing MVFR ceilings
with light rain. Winds should diminish by mid to late evening to
10 to 20 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
After several dry years it is nice to finally get into a little
bit of a wet pattern here in west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
One upper low exits the area today and another forms and drops
into New Mexico keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for much of the seven day forecast.

The first upper low is currently over southern New Mexico and will
slowly move east into west Texas later today. An associated
surface cold front is near LBB this morning, but will make only
slow progress south reaching the I-20 corridor by 00Z. Most
models are showing widespread rain developing along and north of
the front this afternoon which could create some localized
flooding problems for the northern Permian Basin and southeastern
New Mexico. The focus of the precip will shift east tonight as the
low moves into central Texas but wrap around rainfall will still
be possible mainly north of I-10.

GFS and ECMWF guidance are showing very strong gap winds
developing at GDP tonight which is surprising. 850mb wind speed
and direction is not favorable for strong winds, the airmass
behind the front is not very cold as seen with Dodge City, KS
currently only 4 degrees cooler than Midland, and though (in a
rarity) the northeast flow is deep due to the presence of the
upper low it is not particularly strong. It appears that the
models are counting on a cold pool developing in heavy
precipitation south of Lubbock to reinforce the cold air in the
lee of the mountains producing the pressure gradient needed for
gap winds. Confidence in this scenario playing out is not high so
decided against a watch or warning at this time though it is
possible brief, low end warning criteria winds could be seen
mainly from 00-06Z.

Things finally calm down a little Tuesday as the low exits the
area but as stated previously, another low quickly drops south
along the NM/AZ border bringing a return of rain chances on
Wednesday. This low will move slowly like it`s predecessor, moving
only from the four corners region Wednesday to Albuquerque in 48
hours. The eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will have
the best rain chances due to better low level moisture
availabilty but cannot rule out moisture holding all the way up
against the mountains in southeast New Mexico giving areas farther
west a chance for rain as well. The GFS has been trying to push
dry air too far east lately and appears to be doing it again with
this system so kept PoPs back farther west than it indicates.
Models do not show much instability late in the week for severe
thunderstorms but this could quickly change.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12

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237
FXUS64 KMAF 130841
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
After several dry years it is nice to finally get into a little
bit of a wet pattern here in west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
One upper low exits the area today and another forms and drops
into New Mexico keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for much of the seven day forecast.

The first upper low is currently over southern New Mexico and will
slowly move east into west Texas later today. An associated
surface cold front is near LBB this morning, but will make only
slow progress south reaching the I-20 corridor by 00Z. Most
models are showing widespread rain developing along and north of
the front this afternoon which could create some localized
flooding problems for the northern Permian Basin and southeastern
New Mexico. The focus of the precip will shift east tonight as the
low moves into central Texas but wrap around rainfall will still
be possible mainly north of I-10.

GFS and ECMWF guidance are showing very strong gap winds
developing at GDP tonight which is surprising. 850mb wind speed
and direction is not favorable for strong winds, the airmass
behind the front is not very cold as seen with Dodge City, KS
currently only 4 degrees cooler than Midland, and though (in a
rarity) the northeast flow is deep due to the presence of the
upper low it is not particularly strong. It appears that the
models are counting on a cold pool developing in heavy
precipitation south of Lubbock to reinforce the cold air in the
lee of the mountains producing the pressure gradient needed for
gap winds. Confidence in this scenario playing out is not high so
decided against a watch or warning at this time though it is
possible brief, low end warning criteria winds could be seen
mainly from 00-06Z.

Things finally calm down a little Tuesday as the low exits the
area but as stated previously, another low quickly drops south
along the NM/AZ border bringing a return of rain chances on
Wednesday. This low will move slowly like it`s predecessor, moving
only from the four corners region Wednesday to Albuquerque in 48
hours. The eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos will have
the best rain chances due to better low level moisture
availabilty but cannot rule out moisture holding all the way up
against the mountains in southeast New Mexico giving areas farther
west a chance for rain as well. The GFS has been trying to push
dry air too far east lately and appears to be doing it again with
this system so kept PoPs back farther west than it indicates.
Models do not show much instability late in the week for severe
thunderstorms but this could quickly change.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  47  64  49  /  60  50  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              72  50  65  50  /  50  60  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                65  47  66  47  /  60  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  56  74  55  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  50  68  52  /  20  40  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  42  62  48  /  50  40  10   0
HOBBS NM                   63  45  63  47  /  70  50  10   0
MARFA TX                   65  44  65  44  /  20  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  48  66  50  /  40  50  10  10
ODESSA TX                  71  49  66  50  /  40  50  10  10
WINK TX                    71  50  68  50  /  40  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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961
FXUS64 KMAF 130548
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
An upper level storm system across New Mexico will combine with a
southward moving cold front in the Texas Panhandle to result in
deteriorating conditions at a majority of the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Ahead of the
front, light winds and moist air will result in MVFR ceilings and
fog for a few hours around sunrise at KMAF, KINK, KHOB, KCNM.
Behind the front north to northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusty with MVFR ceilings with light rain is expected to develop at
KCNM and KHOB my mid to late Monday morning and spread south to
KMAF and KINK around 19z. Mainly VFR conditions are expected at
KPEQ and KFST through Monday afternoon with TEMPO conditions in
thunderstorms possible at KPEQ in the 21z-24z time frame.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across
the area through the next 24 hours.  Winds will be gusty in and near
storms.  Winds are primarily expected to be out of the south to
southwest although they will be variable with convection around the
area.  A cold front with elevated and gusty north winds will come
into the area Monday afternoon.  Low ceilings are possible for CNM
around 12z and everywhere else beginning Monday late afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor clearly depicts an upper low sw of KELP with a model
initialized 50-60kt 4h jet. Broad mid level lift is evident too as
seen in cyclonically curved cloud shield on IR, along with cooling
cloud tops. Summary model depiction of this is probably best seen
thru NAM/GFS OMEGA fields, which translate lift across the CWFA
between thru 03z. Lift will be within the 3rd standard deviation
positive PW anomalies and SHRA/TSRA should proliferate in this
environment. Between 18Z-19Z there were approx 300 lightning
strikes within 10-100 miles s of Rio Grande. The models attempt to
capture precip shield that moves SW-NE today, with a low level
wind shift from S to W. Heavy rain is a concern too with such high
ambient mstr content, however cells will be moving about 30 mph,
so flooding concerns will remain mostly local but certainly exist!
A few stong/severe storms cannot be ruled out either in this modest
CAPE/low shear environment, downburst winds/hail. Convection will
probably be strongest on leading edge of the reference rain cooled
air and by late in the day/early this evening there could be a few
areas of further enhancement. One could be across the central PB
where the airmass may have greatest SB destabilization and a
second across the Lower Trans Pecos where richest surface mstr
will be. PoPs will mostly wane into the night. There will be an
exception though, SE NM. Around 12Z wrap around precip will
develop in the area from S Plains into E-SE NM. Cold front is now
shown to arrive much earlier Monday and this will tend to renew
precip development for areas n of I-20, where it will be
noticeably cooler. Precip decreases Mon night/early Tue AM, but
there will be lingering showers, followed by cool, but drier
conditions Tue PM. A mid level trof will deepen near the 4-Corners
Wed with high based SHRA/TSRA possible W-NW late Wed PM into the
night. Assocd frontal timing is uncertain due to uncertainty wrt
where upper low will be. GFS brings the upper low across to the n
with drier/cooler low level air Fri-Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$



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244
FXUS64 KMAF 122304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across
the area through the next 24 hours.  Winds will be gusty in and near
storms.  Winds are primarily expected to be out of the south to
southwest although they will be variable with convection around the
area.  A cold front with elevated and gusty north winds will come
into the area Monday afternoon.  Low ceilings are possible for CNM
around 12z and everywhere else beginning Monday late afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor clearly depicts an upper low sw of KELP with a model
initialized 50-60kt 4h jet. Broad mid level lift is evident too as
seen in cyclonically curved cloud shield on IR, along with cooling
cloud tops. Summary model depiction of this is probably best seen
thru NAM/GFS OMEGA fields, which translate lift across the CWFA
between thru 03z. Lift will be within the 3rd standard deviation
positive PW anomalies and SHRA/TSRA should proliferate in this
environment. Between 18Z-19Z there were approx 300 lightning
strikes within 10-100 miles s of Rio Grande. The models attempt to
capture precip shield that moves SW-NE today, with a low level
wind shift from S to W. Heavy rain is a concern too with such high
ambient mstr content, however cells will be moving about 30 mph,
so flooding concerns will remain mostly local but certainly exist!
A few stong/severe storms cannot be ruled out either in this modest
CAPE/low shear environment, downburst winds/hail. Convection will
probably be strongest on leading edge of the reference rain cooled
air and by late in the day/early this evening there could be a few
areas of further enhancement. One could be across the central PB
where the airmass may have greatest SB destabilization and a
second across the Lower Trans Pecos where richest surface mstr
will be. PoPs will mostly wane into the night. There will be an
exception though, SE NM. Around 12Z wrap around precip will
develop in the area from S Plains into E-SE NM. Cold front is now
shown to arrive much earlier Monday and this will tend to renew
precip development for areas n of I-20, where it will be
noticeably cooler. Precip decreases Mon night/early Tue AM, but
there will be lingering showers, followed by cool, but drier
conditions Tue PM. A mid level trof will deepen near the 4-Corners
Wed with high based SHRA/TSRA possible W-NW late Wed PM into the
night. Assocd frontal timing is uncertain due to uncertainty wrt
where upper low will be. GFS brings the upper low across to the n
with drier/cooler low level air Fri-Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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560
FXUS64 KMAF 121908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor clearly depicts an upper low sw of KELP with a model
initialized 50-60kt 4h jet. Broad mid level lift is evident too as
seen in cyclonically curved cloud shield on IR, along with cooling
cloud tops. Summary model depiction of this is probably best seen
thru NAM/GFS OMEGA fields, which translate lift across the CWFA
between thru 03z. Lift will be within the 3rd standard deviation
positive PW anomalies and SHRA/TSRA should proliferate in this
environment. Between 18Z-19Z there were approx 300 lightning
strikes within 10-100 miles s of Rio Grande. The models attempt to
capture precip shield that moves SW-NE today, with a low level
wind shift from S to W. Heavy rain is a concern too with such high
ambient mstr content, however cells will be moving about 30 mph,
so flooding concerns will remain mostly local but certainly exist!
A few stong/severe storms cannot be ruled out either in this modest
CAPE/low shear environment, downburst winds/hail. Convection will
probably be strongest on leading edge of the reference rain cooled
air and by late in the day/early this evening there could be a few
areas of further enhancement. One could be across the central PB
where the airmass may have greatest SB destabilization and a
second across the Lower Trans Pecos where richest surface mstr
will be. PoPs will mostly wane into the night. There will be an
exception though, SE NM. Around 12Z wrap around precip will
develop in the area from S Plains into E-SE NM. Cold front is now
shown to arrive much earlier Monday and this will tend to renew
precip development for areas n of I-20, where it will be
noticeably cooler. Precip decreases Mon night/early Tue AM, but
there will be lingering showers, followed by cool, but drier
conditions Tue PM. A mid level trof will deepen near the 4-Corners
Wed with high based SHRA/TSRA possible W-NW late Wed PM into the
night. Assocd frontal timing is uncertain due to uncertainty wrt
where upper low will be. GFS brings the upper low across to the n
with drier/cooler low level air Fri-Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  64  46  68  /  40  60  60  10
BIG SPRING TX              58  67  50  70  /  50  50  60  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  63  46  71  /  50  70  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  57  81  57  78  /  40  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  72  49  72  /  10  10  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  55  41  66  /  50  50  10  10
HOBBS NM                   50  61  45  67  /  50  70  50  10
MARFA TX                   47  63  40  69  /  10  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    55  68  48  69  /  40  50  50  10
ODESSA TX                  53  67  48  70  /  30  50  50  10
WINK TX                    52  71  49  72  /  20  40  50  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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143
FXUS64 KMAF 121709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Forecast sounding suggest convective temps will be reached over
the new few hours, spawning a widespread cu field w/bases 4.5-7
kft agl. Slug of lift is forecast to move NE thru the Presidio
Valley to the Wrn Low Rolling Plains into this evening, resulting
in a chance of convection all terminals. Buffer soundings suggest
IFR conditions developing for a few hours overnight KCNM/KMAF.
Cold front will make it thru KCNM/KHOB before the end of the
forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward
west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across
the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night.
As this system approaches through tonight, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase areawide. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward
moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation.
Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with
the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and
later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends
in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected
Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
By Tuesday the upper low will finally move away from the region
with a lingering chance of showers expected in the extreme
northeastern Permian Basin. It will remain cool with cyclonic
flow remaining over the forecast area.

By next Wednesday the next upper low is forecast to dig into
the Rockies from the Pacific northwest. A surface trough/dry line
is forecast to become established again in the southwesterly flow
aloft across the central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures
should warm again to above normal values with the formation of the
surface trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out
along the surface trough/dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence
in placement of the dry line is low so left the forecast dry for
now. By Wednesday night through Thursday night the upper low is
forecast to slowly continue to dig across the southern Rockies. As
the upper low approaches the forecast area upper level forcing
will increase and confidence is high enough to mention a slight
chance of thunderstorms most areas these periods.

For Friday through Saturday the upper low is forecast to meander
around either the Rockies or the western high plains. Since guidance
has not reached a consensus on the track of this system yet will
leave dry for now these days but later shifts will need to
monitor.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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645
FXUS64 KMAF 121506
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF 12Z RAOB and latest NAM suggest afternoon temps may climb a
degree or two high than forecast, before convection develops and
cools things down. KMAF sounding depicts a very unstable pre-storm
environment, w/sbcapes in excess of 3000 J/kg, w/mid-lvl LR`s
approaching 8C/km. This, and given wet-bulb zero heights of ~ 8
kft, will favor conditions for hail. PWAT came in at 0.90", about
200% of normal, and the NAM increases it to 1.3" by 00Z Monday,
which is about the climatological maximum. Thus, heavy
rainfall/flash flooding will also be a threat. We`ll do a quick
update to raise afternoon temps, and adjust other parameters as
necessary. We see no reason to change wx/POP/QPF grids attm.
Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGs made a brief appearance at MAF and though it is not
on station as of this TAF issuance, it is in the area as seen at
HOB so will keep TEMPO in the forecast through 15Z before
improving conditions to VFR the remainder of the TAF period. Still
expecting rain showers this afternoon and a few of the heavier
could brief reduce conditions to MVFR but will leave this out of
the TAF for now. Also a chance for TS after 18Z but will likely
have to handle this with an AMD as coverage will be spotty.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward
west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across
the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night.
As this system approaches through tonight, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase areawide. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward
moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation.
Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with
the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and
later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends
in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected
Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
By Tuesday the upper low will finally move away from the region
with a lingering chance of showers expected in the extreme
northeastern Permian Basin. It will remain cool with cyclonic
flow remaining over the forecast area.

By next Wednesday the next upper low is forecast to dig into
the Rockies from the Pacific northwest. A surface trough/dry line
is forecast to become established again in the southwesterly flow
aloft across the central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures
should warm again to above normal values with the formation of the
surface trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out
along the surface trough/dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence
in placement of the dry line is low so left the forecast dry for
now. By Wednesday night through Thursday night the upper low is
forecast to slowly continue to dig across the southern Rockies. As
the upper low approaches the forecast area upper level forcing
will increase and confidence is high enough to mention a slight
chance of thunderstorms most areas these periods.

For Friday through Saturday the upper low is forecast to meander
around either the Rockies or the western high plains. Since guidance
has not reached a consensus on the track of this system yet will
leave dry for now these days but later shifts will need to
monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  52  66  48  /  40  40  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              82  54  67  54  /  40  50  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                80  51  67  47  /  30  40  70  30
DRYDEN TX                  81  58  79  59  /  50  40  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  52  73  52  /  50  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  46  59  45  /  30  30  60  20
HOBBS NM                   80  49  62  46  /  30  40  70  40
MARFA TX                   72  44  64  41  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  54  69  50  /  50  40  50  40
ODESSA TX                  82  53  68  51  /  50  30  50  40
WINK TX                    80  51  70  51  /  40  20  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/49

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976
FXUS64 KMAF 121117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGs made a brief appearance at MAF and though it is not
on station as of this TAF issuance, it is in the area as seen at
HOB so will keep TEMPO in the forecast through 15Z before
improving conditions to VFR the remainder of the TAF period. Still
expecting rain showers this afternoon and a few of the heavier
could brief reduce conditions to MVFR but will leave this out of
the TAF for now. Also a chance for TS after 18Z but will likely
have to handle this with an AMD as coverage will be spotty.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward
west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across
the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night.
As this system approaches through tonight, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase areawide. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward
moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation.
Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with
the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and
later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends
in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected
Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
By Tuesday the upper low will finally move away from the region
with a lingering chance of showers expected in the extreme
northeastern Permian Basin. It will remain cool with cyclonic
flow remaining over the forecast area.

By next Wednesday the next upper low is forecast to dig into
the Rockies from the Pacific northwest. A surface trough/dry line
is forecast to become established again in the southwesterly flow
aloft across the central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures
should warm again to above normal values with the formation of the
surface trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out
along the surface trough/dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence
in placement of the dry line is low so left the forecast dry for
now. By Wednesday night through Thursday night the upper low is
forecast to slowly continue to dig across the southern Rockies. As
the upper low approaches the forecast area upper level forcing
will increase and confidence is high enough to mention a slight
chance of thunderstorms most areas these periods.

For Friday through Saturday the upper low is forecast to meander
around either the Rockies or the western high plains. Since guidance
has not reached a consensus on the track of this system yet will
leave dry for now these days but later shifts will need to
monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  52  66  48  /  40  40  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              80  54  67  54  /  40  50  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  67  47  /  30  40  70  30
DRYDEN TX                  80  58  79  59  /  50  40  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  52  73  52  /  50  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  46  59  45  /  30  30  60  20
HOBBS NM                   75  49  62  46  /  30  40  70  40
MARFA TX                   67  44  64  41  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    79  54  69  50  /  50  40  50  40
ODESSA TX                  78  53  68  51  /  50  30  50  40
WINK TX                    80  51  70  51  /  40  20  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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737
FXUS64 KMAF 120857
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
357 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered near Baja will move toward
west Texas today and tonight and then move only very slowly across
the Permian Basin and Texas Panhandle Monday through Monday night.
As this system approaches through tonight, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will increase areawide. The best chance of
showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday as a southward
moving cold front provides an additional focus for precipitation.
Prefer the quicker higher resolution guidance (arw,nmm,nam) with
the cold front and precipitation on Monday. Much cooler temperatures
are expected Monday behind the front with the precipitation and
later shifts may need to lower high temperatures if current trends
in the guidance continue. More wraparound precipitation expected
Monday night as the upper low departs into the Texas Panhandle.
By Tuesday the upper low will finally move away from the region
with a lingering chance of showers expected in the extreme
northeastern Permian Basin. It will remain cool with cyclonic
flow remaining over the forecast area.

By next Wednesday the next upper low is forecast to dig into
the Rockies from the Pacific northwest. A surface trough/dry line
is forecast to become established again in the southwesterly flow
aloft across the central and or eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures
should warm again to above normal values with the formation of the
surface trough/dry line. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out
along the surface trough/dry line Wednesday afternoon but confidence
in placement of the dry line is low so left the forecast dry for
now. By Wednesday night through Thursday night the upper low is
forecast to slowly continue to dig across the southern Rockies. As
the upper low approaches the forecast area upper level forcing
will increase and confidence is high enough to mention a slight
chance of thunderstorms most areas these periods.

For Friday through Saturday the upper low is forecast to meander
around either the Rockies or the western high plains. Since guidance
has not reached a consensus on the track of this system yet will
leave dry for now these days but later shifts will need to
monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  52  66  48  /  40  40  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              80  54  67  54  /  40  50  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  67  47  /  30  40  70  30
DRYDEN TX                  80  58  79  59  /  50  40  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           78  52  73  52  /  50  20  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  46  59  45  /  30  30  60  20
HOBBS NM                   75  49  62  46  /  30  40  70  40
MARFA TX                   67  44  64  41  /  40  20  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    79  54  69  50  /  50  40  50  40
ODESSA TX                  78  53  68  51  /  50  30  50  40
WINK TX                    80  51  70  51  /  40  20  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12

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949
FXUS64 KMAF 120527
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs currently reported near BPG may move briefly into MAF
later tonight before southwest winds push it back east. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected much of this TAF period. Rain is
expected to develop Sunday afternoon which could briefly lower
CIGs to MVFR during heavier downpours, but this cannot be
accurately placed in the TAFs at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds are slowly clearing w-e with recent convective development in
S Terrell Co, where LIs are -4 to -8. Another axis of SB instability
is across the nrn CWFA into the S Plains and s into Concho Valley
and with clearing new development is anticipated in nrn parts where
SB CINH is weaker, in general agreement with ECMWF/GFS QPF.  There
is potential for isold severe storms too, with CAPES above 2000 J/KG
and 30-35kts across the nrn PB. Sunday, said upper low will be sw of
KELP and this will place the CWFA within a favorable area for
precip, in the backed 5h winds and within the axis of highest PW (~3
standard deviations above normal per NAEFS). Expect that SHRA/TSRA
will move across the Rio Grande INVOF the Big Bend near 18Z and then
expand in coverage as lift increases within deformation zone.
NAM80/GFS depict a well-defined OMEGA maxima, especially across
Trans Pecos and the PB. MET guidance mostly reflects chance PoPs as
does the current fcst. Our impression, largely based on the pattern,
is that PoPs should be more into the "likely" category. With such
high PWs and persistent lift locally heavy rain is possible,
marginal severe wx too, mainly across the ern 1/3 of CWFA. Said low
and assocd axis of maxima PW/OMEGA lift nwd Sunday night/Mon AM. As
such PoPs will be less Monday, but the 5h low will be over the area
with enuf instability for continued scattered SHRA/TSRA. An assocd
cold front will slowly move s into the nrn PB late Mon PM, which may
renew precip for a few hrs across the nrn PB. Temps will be
difficult because of rain cooled air Sunday, underneath upper low
Monday, and cooler in wake of the front Tue? Another front looks to
arrive Wed night/Thursday morning, re-enforcing cool/dry air Thur.
Mstr return does not look likely Friday/Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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894
FXUS64 KMAF 112321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening through
tomorrow with tomorrow afternoon having the best chances.  Winds
will generally be out of the south and will be gusty at times and
variable through the first half of the night. There is a chance for
low ceilings across the area around 09z to 14z with the best chances
being at MAF.  Winds will weaken before 12z and will mostly be out
of the south on Sunday with stronger/more variable winds near areas
of convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds are slowly clearing w-e with recent convective development in
S Terrell Co, where LIs are -4 to -8. Another axis of SB instability
is across the nrn CWFA into the S Plains and s into Concho Valley
and with clearing new development is anticipated in nrn parts where
SB CINH is weaker, in general agreement with ECMWF/GFS QPF.  There
is potential for isold severe storms too, with CAPES above 2000 J/KG
and 30-35kts across the nrn PB. Sunday, said upper low will be sw of
KELP and this will place the CWFA within a favorable area for
precip, in the backed 5h winds and within the axis of highest PW (~3
standard deviations above normal per NAEFS). Expect that SHRA/TSRA
will move across the Rio Grande INVOF the Big Bend near 18Z and then
expand in coverage as lift increases within deformation zone.
NAM80/GFS depict a well-defined OMEGA maxima, especially across
Trans Pecos and the PB. MET guidance mostly reflects chance PoPs as
does the current fcst. Our impression, largely based on the pattern,
is that PoPs should be more into the "likely" category. With such
high PWs and persistent lift locally heavy rain is possible,
marginal severe wx too, mainly across the ern 1/3 of CWFA. Said low
and assocd axis of maxima PW/OMEGA lift nwd Sunday night/Mon AM. As
such PoPs will be less Monday, but the 5h low will be over the area
with enuf instability for continued scattered SHRA/TSRA. An assocd
cold front will slowly move s into the nrn PB late Mon PM, which may
renew precip for a few hrs across the nrn PB. Temps will be
difficult because of rain cooled air Sunday, underneath upper low
Monday, and cooler in wake of the front Tue? Another front looks to
arrive Wed night/Thursday morning, re-enforcing cool/dry air Thur.
Mstr return does not look likely Friday/Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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401
FXUS64 KMAF 111921
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
221 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds are slowly clearing w-e with recent convective development in
S Terrell Co, where LIs are -4 to -8. Another axis of SB instability
is across the nrn CWFA into the S Plains and s into Concho Valley
and with clearing new development is anticipated in nrn parts where
SB CINH is weaker, in general agreement with ECMWF/GFS QPF.  There is
potential for isold severe storms too, with CAPES above 2000 J/KG
and 30-35kts across the nrn PB. Sunday, said upper low will be sw of
KELP and this will place the CWFA within a favorable area for
precip, in the backed 5h winds and within the axis of highest PW (~3
standard deviations above normal per NAEFS). Expect that SHRA/TSRA
will move across the Rio Grande INVOF the Big Bend near 18Z and then
expand in coverage as lift increases within deformation zone.
NAM80/GFS depict a well-defined OMEGA maxima, especially across
Trans Pecos and the PB. MET guidance mostly reflects chance PoPs as
does the current fcst. Our impression, largely based on the pattern,
is that PoPs should be more into the "likely" category. With such
high PWs and persistent lift locally heavy rain is possible,
marginal severe wx too, mainly across the ern 1/3 of CWFA. Said low
and assocd axis of maxima PW/OMEGA lift nwd Sunday night/Mon AM. As
such PoPs will be less Monday, but the 5h low will be over the area
with enuf instability for continued scattered SHRA/TSRA. An assocd
cold front will slowly move s into the nrn PB late Mon PM, which may
renew precip for a few hrs across the nrn PB. Temps will be difficult
because of rain cooled air Sunday, underneath upper low Monday, and
cooler in wake of the front Tue? Another front looks to arrive
Wed night/Thursday morning, re-enforcing cool/dry air Thur. Mstr
return does not look likely Friday/Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 59  77  55  71  /  20  50  50  30
BIG SPRING TX              63  80  57  76  /  20  50  60  30
CARLSBAD NM                57  79  54  70  /  10  40  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  63  80  61  82  /  20  60  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  78  55  75  /  20  60  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  66  49  63  /  10  40  30  40
HOBBS NM                   57  75  52  68  /  10  50  50  30
MARFA TX                   53  67  47  68  /  20  50   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  79  57  74  /  20  60  40  20
ODESSA TX                  61  78  56  74  /  20  60  40  20
WINK TX                    63  80  54  74  /  10  50  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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545
FXUS64 KMAF 111754
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1254 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A bit of a tricky aviation forecast the next 24 hours. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico, as MVFR stratus remains east of area
terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are possible once again this
afternoon and tonight, though uncertainties regarding
timing/coverage preclude inclusion of SHRA/TSRA in current TAFs,
and will amend as necessary. If storms impact area terminals,
gusty winds as well as brief reductions to MVFR or even IFR
conditions are possible due to rainfall.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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