Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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170
FXUS64 KMAF 050010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds have receded southward but should return tonight.
Expect widespread MVFR cigs and vsbys with isolated IFR conditions
toward morning. Wind will come around to the W tomorrow with skies
rapidly clearing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low over Mexico will provide more precipitation chances over
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Monday, or at
least through Monday morning.  Precipitation mode will mainly be
rain, but the Davis, Glass, Chinati and Chisos Mountains above 6000
feet could see a mix of rain and snow, or all snow.  There will be a
warmup Monday, before the southernmost extent of a sprawling arctic
airmass eases into the region Tuesday afternoon, which briefly
retreats Tuesday night/Wednesday before very cold air dumps south
through the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday.

The ua low over the Mexican states of Chihuahua/Sinaloa/Durango this
afternoon will eject northeastward through tonight, then into
central Texas Monday afternoon.  This track will result in the
precipitation shield extending southwest to northeast over the
southeastern half of the forecast area, or along and south of a
Davis Mountains to western Low Rolling Plains line.  Precipitation
will fall as light to moderate rain, except in the higher elevations
of the Davis/Glass and Chisos/Chinati Mountains.  Fairly decent
agreement on the track of the ua low amongst models indicate h7 and
h85-h5 thicknesses, will drop below 0C, and 415-418 dam,
respectively.  This will likely result in all snow above 6000 feet.
Well above normal PWats of 0.75-1" along and south of Interstate
20 through tonight, will make 1-3 inches of snow possible in all of
these mountains, but especially in the Chisos/Chinati Mountains
where the better chance of/heavier precipitation, and some
indication of elevated instability will reside from late this
afternoon and overnight.  Amounts in the higher elevations of the
Davis/Glass Mountains may not be as high, but these will be included
in a Winter Weather Advisory nonetheless.  Temperatures in the
lower levels of the atmosphere will be too warm for more than a mix
of rain and snow between 4000 and 6000 feet, so may include a mix of
rain and snow for the Marfa Plateau and Alpine areas with little to
no accumulation expected.

Precipitation will wind down Monday morning, and expect temperatures
to warm to near normal levels under weak northwest flow aloft.
Westerly flow aloft will prevail over the region Tuesday, however
the mentioned arctic airmass will be oozing south through the
central U.S. Plains in the wake of a northern stream ua trough.  The
modified southern extent of the above mentioned arctic airmass will
arrive Tuesday morning, but an expanding longwave trough over the
Great Basin will keep westerly flow aloft over our region and mix
the shallow cold airmass out Tuesday afternoon/night.  A shortwave
trough within the parent ua trough will eject eastward over the
central U.S. Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday, sending the arctic
airmass plunging south through the forecast area.  Will reissue a
special Weather Statement concerning this cold airmass, which could
be the coldest we have seen in a couple of years.  There are a few
indications some precipitation could fall behind the arctic front
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but will leave any mention out
until there is much better agreement than currently seen with the
latest model runs.  Temperatures could moderate to near normal
levels as early as Saturday due to mainly westerly flow aloft
shunting the arctic airmass eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  57  39  52 /  30  40   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  64  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  63  45  68 /  80  50   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  64  43  65 /  70  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  56  37  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  60  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  31  61 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  59  39  57 /  40  30   0   0
Odessa                         37  59  38  58 /  40  20   0   0
Wink                           37  63  38  61 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$
465
FXUS64 KMAF 042003
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low over Mexico will provide more precipitation chances over
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Monday, or at
least through Monday morning.  Precipitation mode will mainly be
rain, but the Davis, Glass, Chinati and Chisos Mountains above 6000
feet could see a mix of rain and snow, or all snow.  There will be a
warmup Monday, before the southernmost extent of a sprawling arctic
airmass eases into the region Tuesday afternoon, which briefly
retreats Tuesday night/Wednesday before very cold air dumps south
through the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday.

The ua low over the Mexican states of Chihuahua/Sinaloa/Durango this
afternoon will eject northeastward through tonight, then into
central Texas Monday afternoon.  This track will result in the
precipitation shield extending southwest to northeast over the
southeastern half of the forecast area, or along and south of a
Davis Mountains to western Low Rolling Plains line.  Precipitation
will fall as light to moderate rain, except in the higher elevations
of the Davis/Glass and Chisos/Chinati Mountains.  Fairly decent
agreement on the track of the ua low amongst models indicate h7 and
h85-h5 thicknesses, will drop below 0C, and 415-418 dam,
respectively.  This will likely result in all snow above 6000 feet.
Well above normal PWats of 0.75-1" along and south of Interstate
20 through tonight, will make 1-3 inches of snow possible in all of
these mountains, but especially in the Chisos/Chinati Mountains
where the better chance of/heavier precipitation, and some
indication of elevated instability will reside from late this
afternoon and overnight.  Amounts in the higher elevations of the
Davis/Glass Mountains may not be as high, but these will be included
in a Winter Weather Advisory nonetheless.  Temperatures in the
lower levels of the atmosphere will be too warm for more than a mix
of rain and snow between 4000 and 6000 feet, so may include a mix of
rain and snow for the Marfa Plateau and Alpine areas with little to
no accumulation expected.

Precipitation will wind down Monday morning, and expect temperatures
to warm to near normal levels under weak northwest flow aloft.
Westerly flow aloft will prevail over the region Tuesday, however
the mentioned arctic airmass will be oozing south through the
central U.S. Plains in the wake of a northern stream ua trough.  The
modified southern extent of the above mentioned arctic airmass will
arrive Tuesday morning, but an expanding longwave trough over the
Great Basin will keep westerly flow aloft over our region and mix
the shallow cold airmass out Tuesday afternoon/night.  A shortwave
trough within the parent ua trough will eject eastward over the
central U.S. Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday, sending the arctic
airmass plunging south through the forecast area.  Will reissue a
special Weather Statement concerning this cold airmass, which could
be the coldest we have seen in a couple of years.  There are a few
indications some precipitation could fall behind the arctic front
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but will leave any mention out
until there is much better agreement than currently seen with the
latest model runs.  Temperatures could moderate to near normal
levels as early as Saturday due to mainly westerly flow aloft
shunting the arctic airmass eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  57  39  52 /  30  40   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  64  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  63  45  68 /  80  50   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  64  43  65 /  70  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  56  37  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  60  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  31  61 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  59  39  57 /  40  30   0   0
Odessa                         37  59  38  58 /  40  20   0   0
Wink                           37  63  38  61 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Monday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa
     Plateau.

&&

$$

80/67
033
FXUS64 KMAF 041723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities are expected to gradually improve
throughout the afternoon. Lower ceilings and visibilities are
again expected for all TAF sites except CNM beginning around 06z
and lasting through at least 15z Monday. Winds will weaken through
the afternoon and are expected to be light and somewhat variable
through Monday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low INVOF Bay of Calif with
a subtropical jet having shifted e along with the higher theta-e
air aloft. As such precip potential for areas N of I-20 does
diminish today, in part to more shallow/waning isentropic lift
along I295-300. Some sunshine is possible across SE NM this PM
too with highs mostly in 50s N of I-20. By 12Z this morning the
upper low will be moving e and more substantial thickness cooling
will occur across the Trans Pecos. The position of the upper low
will be favorable for increased upper level divergence with some
redevelopment of the mid/upper level jet too. As such the chance
of precip will increase this PM and this will be accompanied by 7h
temps falling to/below 0C across the Trans Pecos. For trend sake
we note that 00Z/04 NAM12 is earliest and farthest N-NW with
precip. What this will amounts to is that precip will transition
from occurring in the region southerly divergence mid level flow
to colder wrap around precip by 06Z/Mon. Considering 7h temps and
85h-5h thickness there will be the potential for snow from the
Glass Mtns along the Pecos/Brewster Co line swd into the Big Bend
Region. Snow level will be around 6500-7000 ft by/before 12Z Mon.
Glass Mtns peaks are around 6000 ft as are other peak just s of
Alpine, of course higher in the Big Bend`s Chisos Mtns and thus
they more favored for snow. Initial thoughts are that Chisos Mtns
could easily fall into advisory criteria snow of 1-3", higher
above 7000 ft early Mon AM. For now we will is an SPS, additional
highlights possibly issued later today? The Davis/Chinati Mtns are
less favorable according to model consensus, but NAM12 does show
potential for accumulating snow btwn 06Z-09Z/Mon there too. The
E-SE PB will have one last chance for rain Mon AM from the wrap
around precip. Otherwise with some sunshine Mon PM highs of 55-65
are expected. A weak cold front will follow Tue in wake of the
upper low keeping high temps in the 50s N of I-20. Meanwhile
arctic air is building in the Yukon Region and will start its
move swd arriving in PB/SE NM probably before 00Z/Thur, even well
before? With NE winds of 20-25 mph for a several hrs behind the
front temps will fall rapidly with lows mostly in the M20s Thur AM
(mid teens nrn Lea Co) and highs 35-40 Thur PM. High winds will be
possible thru GDP Pass with the cold air. Gradual warming Fri/Sat
and continued dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  38  58  39 /  10  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       49  31  64  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  47  65  44 /  60  70  30   0
Fort Stockton                  47  39  64  43 /  30  60  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  32  55  37 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          47  30  60  34 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  34  56  31 /  60  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  36  61  39 /  10  20  20   0
Odessa                         49  37  60  38 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                           49  37  64  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
308
FXUS64 KMAF 041138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Challenging flight weather again today, as MVFR/IFR conditions in
low clouds and fog continue to affect all terminals except CNM.
IFR/LIFR conditions are possible for several hours this morning,
with MVFR at CNM, though slow improvement to VFR is expected
through this afternoon and evening. FST will likely remain
MVFR/IFR through the period, as additional rain is expected to
affect the terminal this afternoon and tonight, with LIFR
cigs/visibility possible at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low INVOF Bay of Calif with
a subtropical jet having shifted e along with the higher theta-e
air aloft. As such precip potential for areas N of I-20 does
diminish today, in part to more shallow/waning isentropic lift
along I295-300. Some sunshine is possible across SE NM this PM
too with highs mostly in 50s N of I-20. By 12Z this morning the
upper low will be moving e and more substantial thickness cooling
will occur across the Trans Pecos. The position of the upper low
will be favorable for increased upper level divergence with some
redevelopment of the mid/upper level jet too. As such the chance
of precip will increase this PM and this will be accompanied by 7h
temps falling to/below 0C across the Trans Pecos. For trend sake
we note that 00Z/04 NAM12 is earliest and farthest N-NW with
precip. What this will amounts to is that precip will transition
from occurring in the region southerly divergence mid level flow
to colder wrap around precip by 06Z/Mon. Considering 7h temps and
85h-5h thickness there will be the potential for snow from the
Glass Mtns along the Pecos/Brewster Co line swd into the Big Bend
Region. Snow level will be around 6500-7000 ft by/before 12Z Mon.
Glass Mtns peaks are around 6000 ft as are other peak just s of
Alpine, of course higher in the Big Bend`s Chisos Mtns and thus
they more favored for snow. Initial thoughts are that Chisos Mtns
could easily fall into advisory criteria snow of 1-3", higher
above 7000 ft early Mon AM. For now we will is an SPS, additional
highlights possibly issued later today? The Davis/Chinati Mtns are
less favorable according to model consensus, but NAM12 does show
potential for accumulating snow btwn 06Z-09Z/Mon there too. The
E-SE PB will have one last chance for rain Mon AM from the wrap
around precip. Otherwise with some sunshine Mon PM highs of 55-65
are expected. A weak cold front will follow Tue in wake of the
upper low keeping high temps in the 50s N of I-20. Meanwhile
arctic air is building in the Yukon Region and will start its
move swd arriving in PB/SE NM probably before 00Z/Thur, even well
before? With NE winds of 20-25 mph for a several hrs behind the
front temps will fall rapidly with lows mostly in the M20s Thur AM
(mid teens nrn Lea Co) and highs 35-40 Thur PM. High winds will be
possible thru GDP Pass with the cold air. Gradual warming Fri/Sat
and continued dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  38  58  39 /  10  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       49  31  64  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  47  65  44 /  60  70  30   0
Fort Stockton                  47  39  64  43 /  30  60  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  32  55  37 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          47  30  60  34 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  34  56  31 /  60  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  36  61  39 /  10  20  20   0
Odessa                         49  37  60  38 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                           49  37  64  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
550
FXUS64 KMAF 041010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
410 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low INVOF Bay of Calif with
a subtropical jet having shifted e along with the higher theta-e
air aloft. As such precip potential for areas N of I-20 does
diminish today, in part to more shallow/waning isentropic lift
along I295-300. Some sunshine is possible across SE NM this PM
too with highs mostly in 50s N of I-20. By 12Z this morning the
upper low will be moving e and more substantial thickness cooling
will occur across the Trans Pecos. The position of the upper low
will be favorable for increased upper level divergence with some
redevelopment of the mid/upper level jet too. As such the chance
of precip will increase this PM and this will be accompanied by 7h
temps falling to/below 0C across the Trans Pecos. For trend sake
we note that 00Z/04 NAM12 is earliest and farthest N-NW with
precip. What this will amounts to is that precip will transition
from occurring in the region southerly divergence mid level flow
to colder wrap around precip by 06Z/Mon. Considering 7h temps and
85h-5h thickness there will be the potential for snow from the
Glass Mtns along the Pecos/Brewster Co line swd into the Big Bend
Region. Snow level will be around 6500-7000 ft by/before 12Z Mon.
Glass Mtns peaks are around 6000 ft as are other peak just s of
Alpine, of course higher in the Big Bend`s Chisos Mtns and thus
they more favored for snow. Initial thoughts are that Chisos Mtns
could easily fall into advisory criteria snow of 1-3", higher
above 7000 ft early Mon AM. For now we will is an SPS, additional
highlights possibly issued later today? The Davis/Chinati Mtns are
less favorable according to model consensus, but NAM12 does show
potential for accumulating snow btwn 06Z-09Z/Mon there too. The
E-SE PB will have one last chance for rain Mon AM from the wrap
around precip. Otherwise with some sunshine Mon PM highs of 55-65
are expected. A weak cold front will follow Tue in wake of the
upper low keeping high temps in the 50s N of I-20. Meanwhile
arctic air is building in the Yukon Region and will start its
move swd arriving in PB/SE NM probably before 00Z/Thur, even well
before? With NE winds of 20-25 mph for a several hrs behind the
front temps will fall rapidly with lows mostly in the M20s Thur AM
(mid teens nrn Lea Co) and highs 35-40 Thur PM. High winds will be
possible thru GDP Pass with the cold air. Gradual warming Fri/Sat
and continued dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  38  58  39 /  10  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       49  31  64  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  47  65  44 /  60  70  30   0
Fort Stockton                  47  39  64  43 /  30  60  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  32  55  37 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          47  30  60  34 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  34  56  31 /  60  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  36  61  39 /  10  20  20   0
Odessa                         49  37  60  38 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                           49  37  64  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
480
FXUS64 KMAF 040517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1117 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly IFR conditions in occasional light drizzle and fog is
expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals
overnight and most of Sunday morning. Expecting some improvement
toward 04/18Z with mainly MVFR ceilings by Sunday afternoon. North
to northeast winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as
rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues
ahead of a cutoff upper level low.  Despite a slightly different
track of the ua low from previous runs, temperatures will remain
near to below normal into next week before an even colder airmass
impinges upon the region mid next week.

A cutoff low swirling over the Gulf of California, or about halfway
down the Baja Peninsula, will track slowly southeastward today and
tonight, then eastward over north central Mexico Sunday, before
ejecting northeastward into central Texas Sunday night and Monday.
Two or three rounds of rain will develop through Sunday night as
discrete shortwave troughs eject over the region ahead of/around this
upper low, in addition to very moist low level upslope flow resulting
in patchy drizzle and fog in between rain rounds.

The 03/12Z MAF sounding indicated a PWat of 0.94 inches, which
verified model progs of 0.75 - 1.0".  This atmospheric water
content is 2-3 S.D. above normal for this time of year.  Several
locations had 0.5-0.75" of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with a
couple of locations coming in around 1".  Although the ua low
looks like it will take a track a bit farther south than previous
model runs indicated, we could see similar amounts due in part to
isolated thunderstorms, but mainly south of Interstate 10 before
precipitation ends Sunday night/Monday from northwest to southeast.
Model forecast soundings support a mix of rain and snow in the
Guadalupe, Davis and Chisos Mountains sporadically tonight, and
Sunday morning, but marginal temperatures through the atmospheric
column and relatively warm ground temperatures will likely limit
accumulations to little, to none. Considered adding freezing rain,
but again, relatively warm ground should prevent much if any ice
accumulation in the higher elevations of the mountains.  The only
other near term concern is northeast gap winds through Guadalupe
Pass. Since wind speeds will trend down this afternoon, will
cancel the High Wind Warning.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal Monday and Tuesday,
although there are some indications a cold front may dip south into
the area Tuesday, be pushed out of the region Tuesday night, then be
followed by an arctic airmass Wednesday or Wednesday night.  There
is also some indication the base of the ua trough, which will help
usher the colder air into the region, will move over the area and
possibly develop some precipitation behind the arctic front
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Since there is a fair amount of
disagreement on this occurring, will not carry any mention of
precipitation for these time frames.  Initial indications are low
temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below normal, and high
temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal, behind the arctic front.
Model disparities will prevent any further detail at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  48  40 /  80  60  30  40
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  33 /  80  50  20  10
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  80
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  40  10
Hobbs                          41  36  45  31 /  80  50  10  10
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  50
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  48  39 /  80  60  40  40
Odessa                         45  39  47  38 /  80  60  40  30
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
385
FXUS64 KMAF 032258
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
458 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Continued mainly IFR conditions in occasional light rain or
drizzle and fog is expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals overnight and most of Sunday morning. Expecting
some improvement with mainly MVFR ceilings by Sunday afternoon
with precipitation and fog ending. The exception will be KFST,
where IFR conditions may continue into the afternoon. North to
northeast winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as
rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues
ahead of a cutoff upper level low.  Despite a slightly different
track of the ua low from previous runs, temperatures will remain
near to below normal into next week before an even colder airmass
impinges upon the region mid next week.

A cutoff low swirling over the Gulf of California, or about halfway
down the Baja Peninsula, will track slowly southeastward today and
tonight, then eastward over north central Mexico Sunday, before
ejecting northeastward into central Texas Sunday night and Monday.
Two or three rounds of rain will develop through Sunday night as
discrete shortwave troughs eject over the region ahead of/around this
upper low, in addition to very moist low level upslope flow resulting
in patchy drizzle and fog in between rain rounds.

The 03/12Z MAF sounding indicated a PWat of 0.94 inches, which
verified model progs of 0.75 - 1.0".  This atmospheric water
content is 2-3 S.D. above normal for this time of year.  Several
locations had 0.5-0.75" of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with a
couple of locations coming in around 1".  Although the ua low
looks like it will take a track a bit farther south than previous
model runs indicated, we could see similar amounts due in part to
isolated thunderstorms, but mainly south of Interstate 10 before
precipitation ends Sunday night/Monday from northwest to southeast.
Model forecast soundings support a mix of rain and snow in the
Guadalupe, Davis and Chisos Mountains sporadically tonight, and
Sunday morning, but marginal temperatures through the atmospheric
column and relatively warm ground temperatures will likely limit
accumulations to little, to none. Considered adding freezing rain,
but again, relatively warm ground should prevent much if any ice
accumulation in the higher elevations of the mountains.  The only
other near term concern is northeast gap winds through Guadalupe
Pass. Since wind speeds will trend down this afternoon, will
cancel the High Wind Warning.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal Monday and Tuesday,
although there are some indications a cold front may dip south into
the area Tuesday, be pushed out of the region Tuesday night, then be
followed by an arctic airmass Wednesday or Wednesday night.  There
is also some indication the base of the ua trough, which will help
usher the colder air into the region, will move over the area and
possibly develop some precipitation behind the arctic front
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Since there is a fair amount of
disagreement on this occurring, will not carry any mention of
precipitation for these time frames.  Initial indications are low
temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below normal, and high
temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal, behind the arctic front.
Model disparities will prevent any further detail at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  48  40  58 /  60  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       37  47  33  62 /  50  20  10  10
Dryden                         47  51  41  63 /  70  70  80  30
Fort Stockton                  39  45  38  62 /  70  70  60  20
Guadalupe Pass                 33  42  33  54 /  60  40  10  10
Hobbs                          36  45  31  57 /  50  10  10  10
Marfa                          35  42  31  56 /  70  70  50  10
Midland Intl Airport           40  48  39  60 /  60  40  40  20
Odessa                         39  47  38  60 /  60  40  30  20
Wink                           41  47  39  63 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/80
655
FXUS64 KMAF 032011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as
rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues
ahead of a cutoff upper level low.  Despite a slightly different
track of the ua low from previous runs, temperatures will remain
near to below normal into next week before an even colder airmass
impinges upon the region mid next week.

A cutoff low swirling over the Gulf of California, or about halfway
down the Baja Peninsula, will track slowly southeastward today and
tonight, then eastward over north central Mexico Sunday, before
ejecting northeastward into central Texas Sunday night and Monday.
Two or three rounds of rain will develop through Sunday night as
discrete shortwave troughs eject over the region ahead of/around this
upper low, in addition to very moist low level upslope flow resulting
in patchy drizzle and fog in between rain rounds.

The 03/12Z MAF sounding indicated a PWat of 0.94 inches, which
verified model progs of 0.75 - 1.0".  This atmospheric water
content is 2-3 S.D. above normal for this time of year.  Several
locations had 0.5-0.75" of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with a
couple of locations coming in around 1".  Although the ua low
looks like it will take a track a bit farther south than previous
model runs indicated, we could see similar amounts due in part to
isolated thunderstorms, but mainly south of Interstate 10 before
precipitation ends Sunday night/Monday from northwest to southeast.
Model forecast soundings support a mix of rain and snow in the
Guadalupe, Davis and Chisos Mountains sporadically tonight, and
Sunday morning, but marginal temperatures through the atmospheric
column and relatively warm ground temperatures will likely limit
accumulations to little, to none. Considered adding freezing rain,
but again, relatively warm ground should prevent much if any ice
accumulation in the higher elevations of the mountains.  The only
other near term concern is northeast gap winds through Guadalupe
Pass. Since wind speeds will trend down this afternoon, will
cancel the High Wind Warning.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal Monday and Tuesday,
although there are some indications a cold front may dip south into
the area Tuesday, be pushed out of the region Tuesday night, then be
followed by an arctic airmass Wednesday or Wednesday night.  There
is also some indication the base of the ua trough, which will help
usher the colder air into the region, will move over the area and
possibly develop some precipitation behind the arctic front
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Since there is a fair amount of
disagreement on this occurring, will not carry any mention of
precipitation for these time frames.  Initial indications are low
temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below normal, and high
temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal, behind the arctic front.
Model disparities will prevent any further detail at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  48  40  58 /  60  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       37  47  33  62 /  50  20  10  10
Dryden                         47  51  41  63 /  70  70  80  30
Fort Stockton                  39  45  38  62 /  70  70  60  20
Guadalupe Pass                 33  42  33  54 /  60  40  10  10
Hobbs                          36  45  31  57 /  50  10  10  10
Marfa                          35  42  31  56 /  70  70  50  10
Midland Intl Airport           40  48  39  60 /  60  40  40  20
Odessa                         39  47  38  60 /  60  40  30  20
Wink                           41  47  39  63 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/80
384
FXUS64 KMAF 031734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1134 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and visibilities are expected through Sunday morning.
There will likely be a slight improvement this afternoon before
conditions get worse tonight. Areas of fog will be possible
tonight and early Sunday morning. Rain showers will also increase
across the area around 00z. Winds will generally stay out of the
north to northeast and weaken this evening before strengthening
around 15z tomorrow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool and wet weather will continue through this
weekend, with precipitation tapering off on Monday. Temperatures
look to remain below normal through next week, with another
surge of cold air next Wednesday.

The initial round of rainfall associated with an approaching
upper low has moved through the area as of early this morning,
accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder. Additional rounds of
rainfall are expected through the remainder of the day, with
isolated thunderstorms possible, particularly across southern
portions of the area in closer proximity to a cold front that
pushed through the region overnight. The primary driving force
behind our unsettled weather this weekend is a large cutoff low,
currently located over the Gulf of California near Sonora. Models
indicate that this low will continue to drop south and then
meander eastward across Northern Mexico through Sunday. The low
will then begin to open up as it passes south of the Big Bend
Area, before lifting northeast on Monday.

Cold air advection in the wake of last night`s front will result
in well below normal temperatures both today and Sunday, with
highs generally in the lower 40s to middle 50s areawide. The
exception will be today through the Rio Grande Valley, where a few
spots may still reach into the 60s. Precipitable water values over
the region are unusually high for this time of year, ranging from
around 0.75" to around 1.00", roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thus, thanks to the
deep moisture in place over the region, and as lift continues to
increase ahead of the approaching low, widespread rainfall amounts
through this weekend could exceed 1.00", with highest amounts
expected through the Big Bend Area, Rio Grande Valley, and
Stockton Plateau. Also of note is the potential for a mix of rain
and snow across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains
today through Monday morning. Some locations above 7500 feet could
briefly see all snow, though any accumulations are expected to be
light and below Advisory criteria. The rain/snow mix could also
affect the higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains
late tonight through Monday morning, though little to no
accumulation is expected.

In addition to widespread precipitation as well as patchy fog due
to continued moist upslope flow this weekend, strong winds are
expected to continue to affect Guadalupe Pass through this
afternoon. Latest guidance indicates that the strongest winds will
begin to diminish this evening, thus have shortened the duration
of the High Wind Warning, which is now in effect until 5 PM MST
today.

As the low lifts northeast on Monday, precipitation will gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast, with temperatures expected
to to warm back into the middle 50s to lower 60s. The slightly
below normal temperatures will continue Tuesday, though another
strong cold front will move through the region on Wednesday,
resulting in well below normal temperatures once again for the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  47  40 /  80  60  50  50
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  34 /  80  60  50  30
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  50  30
Hobbs                          41  36  45  33 /  80  60  50  30
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  47  39 /  80  60  50  50
Odessa                         45  39  46  38 /  80  60  50  50
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
338
FXUS64 KMAF 031132
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
532 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread IFR CIGS and MVFR vsby are in place with radar showing
-RA INVOF PEQ/INK/HOB. Have kept mostly TEMPO groups thru 16Z for
fluctuating CIGS/VSBY as -RA moves across. There will probably be
a lull in precip after 16Z-17Z before increasing again late this
afternoon evening, but mostly IFR CIGS will persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool and wet weather will continue through this
weekend, with precipitation tapering off on Monday. Temperatures
look to remain below normal through next week, with another
surge of cold air next Wednesday.

The initial round of rainfall associated with an approaching
upper low has moved through the area as of early this morning,
accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder. Additional rounds of
rainfall are expected through the remainder of the day, with
isolated thunderstorms possible, particularly across southern
portions of the area in closer proximity to a cold front that
pushed through the region overnight. The primary driving force
behind our unsettled weather this weekend is a large cutoff low,
currently located over the Gulf of California near Sonora. Models
indicate that this low will continue to drop south and then
meander eastward across Northern Mexico through Sunday. The low
will then begin to open up as it passes south of the Big Bend
Area, before lifting northeast on Monday.

Cold air advection in the wake of last night`s front will result
in well below normal temperatures both today and Sunday, with
highs generally in the lower 40s to middle 50s areawide. The
exception will be today through the Rio Grande Valley, where a few
spots may still reach into the 60s. Precipitable water values over
the region are unusually high for this time of year, ranging from
around 0.75" to around 1.00", roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thus, thanks to the
deep moisture in place over the region, and as lift continues to
increase ahead of the approaching low, widespread rainfall amounts
through this weekend could exceed 1.00", with highest amounts
expected through the Big Bend Area, Rio Grande Valley, and
Stockton Plateau. Also of note is the potential for a mix of rain
and snow across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains
today through Monday morning. Some locations above 7500 feet could
briefly see all snow, though any accumulations are expected to be
light and below Advisory criteria. The rain/snow mix could also
affect the higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains
late tonight through Monday morning, though little to no
accumulation is expected.

In addition to widespread precipitation as well as patchy fog due
to continued moist upslope flow this weekend, strong winds are
expected to continue to affect Guadalupe Pass through this
afternoon. Latest guidance indicates that the strongest winds will
begin to diminish this evening, thus have shortened the duration
of the High Wind Warning, which is now in effect until 5 PM MST
today.

As the low lifts northeast on Monday, precipitation will gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast, with temperatures expected
to to warm back into the middle 50s to lower 60s. The slightly
below normal temperatures will continue Tuesday, though another
strong cold front will move through the region on Wednesday,
resulting in well below normal temperatures once again for the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  47  40 /  80  60  50  50
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  34 /  80  60  50  30
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  50  30
Hobbs                          41  36  45  33 /  80  60  50  30
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  47  39 /  80  60  50  50
Odessa                         45  39  46  38 /  80  60  50  50
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
883
FXUS64 KMAF 031031
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
431 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool and wet weather will continue through this
weekend, with precipitation tapering off on Monday. Temperatures
look to remain below normal through next week, with another
surge of cold air next Wednesday.

The initial round of rainfall associated with an approaching
upper low has moved through the area as of early this morning,
accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder. Additional rounds of
rainfall are expected through the remainder of the day, with
isolated thunderstorms possible, particularly across southern
portions of the area in closer proximity to a cold front that
pushed through the region overnight. The primary driving force
behind our unsettled weather this weekend is a large cutoff low,
currently located over the Gulf of California near Sonora. Models
indicate that this low will continue to drop south and then
meander eastward across Northern Mexico through Sunday. The low
will then begin to open up as it passes south of the Big Bend
Area, before lifting northeast on Monday.

Cold air advection in the wake of last night`s front will result
in well below normal temperatures both today and Sunday, with
highs generally in the lower 40s to middle 50s areawide. The
exception will be today through the Rio Grande Valley, where a few
spots may still reach into the 60s. Precipitable water values over
the region are unusually high for this time of year, ranging from
around 0.75" to around 1.00", roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thus, thanks to the
deep moisture in place over the region, and as lift continues to
increase ahead of the approaching low, widespread rainfall amounts
through this weekend could exceed 1.00", with highest amounts
expected through the Big Bend Area, Rio Grande Valley, and
Stockton Plateau. Also of note is the potential for a mix of rain
and snow across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains
today through Monday morning. Some locations above 7500 feet could
briefly see all snow, though any accumulations are expected to be
light and below Advisory criteria. The rain/snow mix could also
affect the higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains
late tonight through Monday morning, though little to no
accumulation is expected.

In addition to widespread precipitation as well as patchy fog due
to continued moist upslope flow this weekend, strong winds are
expected to continue to affect Guadalupe Pass through this
afternoon. Latest guidance indicates that the strongest winds will
begin to diminish this evening, thus have shortened the duration
of the High Wind Warning, which is now in effect until 5 PM MST
today.

As the low lifts northeast on Monday, precipitation will gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast, with temperatures expected
to to warm back into the middle 50s to lower 60s. The slightly
below normal temperatures will continue Tuesday, though another
strong cold front will move through the region on Wednesday,
resulting in well below normal temperatures once again for the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  47  40 /  80  60  50  50
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  34 /  80  60  50  30
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  50  30
Hobbs                          41  36  45  33 /  80  60  50  30
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  47  39 /  80  60  50  50
Odessa                         45  39  46  38 /  80  60  50  50
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

49/84
654
FXUS64 KMAF 030529
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally IFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the
in light rain, drizzle/fog. Winds will generally be north to
northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  46  47  40 /  50  80  80  60
Carlsbad                       55  38  44  36 /  10  70  80  60
Dryden                         65  56  59  46 /  10  80  70  70
Fort Stockton                  66  43  46  38 /  10  80  80  70
Guadalupe Pass                 53  33  42  33 /   0  70  80  60
Hobbs                          48  37  41  35 /  30  80  80  60
Marfa                          65  41  49  35 /  10  70  80  70
Midland Intl Airport           56  44  46  39 /  40  80  80  60
Odessa                         56  43  45  38 /  40  80  80  60
Wink                           60  46  48  40 /  20  80  80  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
083
FXUS64 KMAF 022302
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for MVFR and IFR conditions in occasional light rain,
drizzle and fog this evening becoming all IFR after 03/06Z at the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours.
Winds will generally be north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cool and wet conditions are expected across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico with some high elevation snow possible through
the weekend. Dry but cold conditions are expected much of next
week.

An upper low located over southern California this morning will
slowly drop east of the tip of Baja Saturday night before ejecting
northeast toward southwest Texas Monday morning. Deterministic
models and ensembles show good agreement, though NAM picks up
forward speed of low somewhat compared to other deterministic
models on Monday. In the wake of departing trough, upper flow is
generally northwest through the coming week, allowing cold Alaskan
air mass to setting into the area bringing below normal temperatures.

In the meanwhile, a cold front was pushing through southeast New
Mexico and the into the central Permian Basin early this
afternoon. This front is expected to push southward through the
Big Bend area overnight. A moist low-level upslope flow will favor
patches of fog, particularly on east slopes overnight. Patchy fog
will remain a possibility through the weekend, more commonly in the
mountains and at night.

Strong northeasterly gap winds are expected to develop at
Guadalupe Pass by late evening and continue off and on through
Saturday night. Aa High Wind Warning will be in effect during that
period of time.

With deep moisture in place across the region, lift ahead of upper
low will bring increasing rain chances to the area overnight. Rain
will be likely across much of the area through Sunday with rain
chances decreasing Sunday night into Monday from northwest to
southeast Monday with dry conditions for the rest of the week.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mostly near and south of
the cold front through Saturday. Total rainfall amounts will
largely be 1 to 2 inches with amounts just under an inch over
parts of southeast New Mexico and nearing two inches from the
Stockton Plateau to the Rio Grande are in Terrell County.

Some snow may mix with rain mainly above 6000 feet in the
Guadalupe Mountains tonight and Saturday. From Saturday night
through Monday morning snow may mix with rain at lower elevations
including the Davis Mountains as the upper low approaches
resulting in low level cooling. Little or no accumulation is
currently expected, though there is enough variability in ensemble
forecasts to suggest that a small potential does exist for some
accumulation of snow at higher elevations. This possibility will
become more evident with time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  47  40  47 /  80  80  60  50
Carlsbad                       38  44  36  46 /  70  80  60  50
Dryden                         56  59  46  51 /  80  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  43  46  38  44 /  80  80  70  70
Guadalupe Pass                 33  42  33  45 /  70  80  60  50
Hobbs                          37  41  35  45 /  80  80  60  50
Marfa                          41  49  35  41 /  70  80  70  70
Midland Intl Airport           44  46  39  47 /  80  80  60  50
Odessa                         43  45  38  46 /  80  80  60  50
Wink                           46  48  40  47 /  80  80  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

06/05
945
FXUS64 KMAF 022041
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
241 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cool and wet conditions are expected across west Texas and
southeast New Mexico with some high elevation snow possible through
the weekend. Dry but cold conditions are expected much of next
week.

An upper low located over southern California this morning will
slowly drop east of the tip of Baja Saturday night before ejecting
northeast toward southwest Texas Monday morning. Deterministic
models and ensembles show good agreement, though NAM picks up
forward speed of low somewhat compared to other deterministic
models on Monday. In the wake of departing trough, upper flow is
generally northwest through the coming week, allowing cold Alaskan
air mass to setting into the area bringing below normal temperatures.

In the meanwhile, a cold front was pushing through southeast New
Mexico and the into the central Permian Basin early this
afternoon. This front is expected to push southward through the
Big Bend area overnight. A moist low-level upslope flow will favor
patches of fog, particularly on east slopes overnight. Patchy fog
will remain a possibility through the weekend, more commonly in the
mountains and at night.

Strong northeasterly gap winds are expected to develop at
Guadalupe Pass by late evening and continue off and on through
Saturday night. Aa High Wind Warning will be in effect during that
period of time.

With deep moisture in place across the region, lift ahead of upper
low will bring increasing rain chances to the area overnight. Rain
will be likely across much of the area through Sunday with rain
chances decreasing Sunday night into Monday from northwest to
southeast Monday with dry conditions for the rest of the week.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mostly near and south of
the cold front through Saturday. Total rainfall amounts will
largely be 1 to 2 inches with amounts just under an inch over
parts of southeast New Mexico and nearing two inches from the
Stockton Plateau to the Rio Grande are in Terrell County.

Some snow may mix with rain mainly above 6000 feet in the
Guadalupe Mountains tonight and Saturday. From Saturday night
through Monday morning snow may mix with rain at lower elevations
including the Davis Mountains as the upper low approaches
resulting in low level cooling. Little or no accumulation is
currently expected, though there is enough variability in ensemble
forecasts to suggest that a small potential does exist for some
accumulation of snow at higher elevations. This possibility will
become more evident with time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  47  40  47 /  80  80  60  50
Carlsbad                       38  44  36  46 /  70  80  60  50
Dryden                         56  59  46  51 /  80  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  43  46  38  44 /  80  80  70  70
Guadalupe Pass                 33  42  33  45 /  70  80  60  50
Hobbs                          37  41  35  45 /  80  80  60  50
Marfa                          41  49  35  41 /  70  80  70  70
Midland Intl Airport           44  46  39  47 /  80  80  60  50
Odessa                         43  45  38  46 /  80  80  60  50
Wink                           46  48  40  47 /  80  80  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Sunday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

06/05
214
FXUS64 KMAF 021730
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1130 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...Please see 18Z discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 11:30 AM CST all terminals are VFR except for
KHOB which is IFR. As the atmosphere moistens and the Upper low in
the Desert SW moves closer expect conditions to deteriorate across
all terminals this aftn and evening. IFR conditions are expected
across all of the terminals tonight...with KHOB remaining IFR thru
the afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light from mainly the
NE this TAF cycle.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have moved into MAF and will start off with TEMPO
groups only at HOB this morning. Otherwise will hold off until
this evening before bringing MVFR/IFR conditions elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A big change is on the way for the region beginning today. A
potent positively-tilted upper trough currently extending from the
Northern Plains southwestward to the Gulf of California will
develop into a cutoff low over the Arizona/Mexico border this
evening, with the low dropping south through Sonora on Saturday.
Ahead of this feature, low and mid-level moisture will increase
substantially over the region, resulting in increasing cloud cover
today. Additionally, a cold front will backdoor into the area
today, becoming quasi-stationary before pushing further south
overnight. The net effect will be cooler temperatures today than
yesterday, particularly across northern zones where highs will be
in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with middle 60s to lower 70s
south. The combination of increased moisture and ascent ahead of
the aforementioned trough will interact with the frontal boundary,
resulting in increasing rain chances across the area today. With
the southward push of the front overnight, as well as the
development of a 300mb jet max rounding the base of the low,
isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Cold air advection will
also begin in earnest tonight, though expected rain and cloud
cover will keep temperatures from falling too much, with lows
expected to be in the 30s and 40s for most of the area. In the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains, rain could mix with
or even briefly change over to snow late tonight and early
Saturday morning, though accumulations will be light and below
Advisory criteria. The aforementioned front is also expected to
result in strong northeasterly gap winds through Guadalupe Pass,
where a High Wind Watch remains in effect from late this evening
through Saturday night.

Saturday and Sunday will both be significantly cooler, with highs
generally in the 40s and 50s both days. Rainfall will remain
likely through the weekend as the aforementioned closed low over
Sonora makes its way slowly eastward across Northern Mexico, and
maintains lift and continued moisture transport over the region.
The passage of the low just to the south of the Big Bend Area
will result in much of the region being under the deformation
zone, and given continued upper support from a strong upper jet,
conditions will be favorable for a few tenths of an inch of rain
for many locations through the weekend. Overnight Saturday
night/early Sunday morning as well as Sunday night into early
Monday, the higher elevations of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Chisos
Mountains could see a wintry mix of rain and snow, though only
light accumulations are expected, and mainly in the Guadalupe
Mountains above 7500 feet. Given continued cold advection and lows
dropping to the upper 20s to around 30 degrees in northern Lea
county, rain may mix with or briefly change to snow during the
early morning hours Sunday and Monday, though no accumulation is
expected in that area.

On Monday, the low will open up as it begins to lift toward the
northeast, with rain chances decreasing and shifting eastward
through Monday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected thereafter,
with temperatures rebounding into the 50s and 60s by Tuesday
afternoon under quasi-zonal flow aloft. The warm-up will be short-
lived however, as another strong cold front moves through the
region on Wednesday, resulting in well below normal temperatures
and the potential for a widespread hard freeze Thursday morning.
Stay tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  46  40  45 /  70  80  60  50
Carlsbad                       38  45  36  44 /  70  80  60  50
Dryden                         54  57  46  51 /  70  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  45  48  38  43 /  70  80  70  70
Guadalupe Pass                 34  41  32  41 /  60  80  60  50
Hobbs                          37  41  34  42 /  70  80  60  50
Marfa                          40  50  34  42 /  50  80  70  70
Midland Intl Airport           42  46  39  45 /  70  80  60  50
Odessa                         42  45  38  44 /  70  80  60  50
Wink                           44  47  39  45 /  70  80  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

33/05/33
719
FXUS64 KMAF 021127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
527 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS have moved into MAF and will start off with TEMPO
groups only at HOB this morning. Otherwise will hold off until
this evening before bringing MVFR/IFR conditions elsewhere.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A big change is on the way for the region beginning today. A
potent positively-tilted upper trough currently extending from the
Northern Plains southwestward to the Gulf of California will
develop into a cutoff low over the Arizona/Mexico border this
evening, with the low dropping south through Sonora on Saturday.
Ahead of this feature, low and mid-level moisture will increase
substantially over the region, resulting in increasing cloud cover
today. Additionally, a cold front will backdoor into the area
today, becoming quasi-stationary before pushing further south
overnight. The net effect will be cooler temperatures today than
yesterday, particularly across northern zones where highs will be
in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with middle 60s to lower 70s
south. The combination of increased moisture and ascent ahead of
the aforementioned trough will interact with the frontal boundary,
resulting in increasing rain chances across the area today. With
the southward push of the front overnight, as well as the
development of a 300mb jet max rounding the base of the low,
isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Cold air advection will
also begin in earnest tonight, though expected rain and cloud
cover will keep temperatures from falling too much, with lows
expected to be in the 30s and 40s for most of the area. In the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains, rain could mix with
or even briefly change over to snow late tonight and early
Saturday morning, though accumulations will be light and below
Advisory criteria. The aforementioned front is also expected to
result in strong northeasterly gap winds through Guadalupe Pass,
where a High Wind Watch remains in effect from late this evening
through Saturday night.

Saturday and Sunday will both be significantly cooler, with highs
generally in the 40s and 50s both days. Rainfall will remain
likely through the weekend as the aforementioned closed low over
Sonora makes its way slowly eastward across Northern Mexico, and
maintains lift and continued moisture transport over the region.
The passage of the low just to the south of the Big Bend Area
will result in much of the region being under the deformation
zone, and given continued upper support from a strong upper jet,
conditions will be favorable for a few tenths of an inch of rain
for many locations through the weekend. Overnight Saturday
night/early Sunday morning as well as Sunday night into early
Monday, the higher elevations of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Chisos
Mountains could see a wintry mix of rain and snow, though only
light accumulations are expected, and mainly in the Guadalupe
Mountains above 7500 feet. Given continued cold advection and lows
dropping to the upper 20s to around 30 degrees in northern Lea
county, rain may mix with or briefly change to snow during the
early morning hours Sunday and Monday, though no accumulation is
expected in that area.

On Monday, the low will open up as it begins to lift toward the
northeast, with rain chances decreasing and shifting eastward
through Monday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected thereafter,
with temperatures rebounding into the 50s and 60s by Tuesday
afternoon under quasi-zonal flow aloft. The warm-up will be short-
lived however, as another strong cold front moves through the
region on Wednesday, resulting in well below normal temperatures
and the potential for a widespread hard freeze Thursday morning.
Stay tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  43  46  40 /  50  70  80  60
Carlsbad                       55  38  45  36 /  10  70  80  60
Dryden                         65  54  57  46 /  10  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  66  45  48  38 /  10  70  80  70
Guadalupe Pass                 53  34  41  32 /   0  60  80  60
Hobbs                          48  37  41  34 /  30  70  80  60
Marfa                          65  40  50  34 /  10  50  80  70
Midland Intl Airport           56  42  46  39 /  40  70  80  60
Odessa                         56  42  45  38 /  40  70  80  60
Wink                           60  44  47  39 /  20  70  80  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
114
FXUS64 KMAF 021022
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
422 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A big change is on the way for the region beginning today. A
potent positively-tilted upper trough currently extending from the
Northern Plains southwestward to the Gulf of California will
develop into a cutoff low over the Arizona/Mexico border this
evening, with the low dropping south through Sonora on Saturday.
Ahead of this feature, low and mid-level moisture will increase
substantially over the region, resulting in increasing cloud cover
today. Additionally, a cold front will backdoor into the area
today, becoming quasi-stationary before pushing further south
overnight. The net effect will be cooler temperatures today than
yesterday, particularly across northern zones where highs will be
in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with middle 60s to lower 70s
south. The combination of increased moisture and ascent ahead of
the aforementioned trough will interact with the frontal boundary,
resulting in increasing rain chances across the area today. With
the southward push of the front overnight, as well as the
development of a 300mb jet max rounding the base of the low,
isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Cold air advection will
also begin in earnest tonight, though expected rain and cloud
cover will keep temperatures from falling too much, with lows
expected to be in the 30s and 40s for most of the area. In the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains, rain could mix with
or even briefly change over to snow late tonight and early
Saturday morning, though accumulations will be light and below
Advisory criteria. The aforementioned front is also expected to
result in strong northeasterly gap winds through Guadalupe Pass,
where a High Wind Watch remains in effect from late this evening
through Saturday night.

Saturday and Sunday will both be significantly cooler, with highs
generally in the 40s and 50s both days. Rainfall will remain
likely through the weekend as the aforementioned closed low over
Sonora makes its way slowly eastward across Northern Mexico, and
maintains lift and continued moisture transport over the region.
The passage of the low just to the south of the Big Bend Area
will result in much of the region being under the deformation
zone, and given continued upper support from a strong upper jet,
conditions will be favorable for a few tenths of an inch of rain
for many locations through the weekend. Overnight Saturday
night/early Sunday morning as well as Sunday night into early
Monday, the higher elevations of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Chisos
Mountains could see a wintry mix of rain and snow, though only
light accumulations are expected, and mainly in the Guadalupe
Mountains above 7500 feet. Given continued cold advection and lows
dropping to the upper 20s to around 30 degrees in northern Lea
county, rain may mix with or briefly change to snow during the
early morning hours Sunday and Monday, though no accumulation is
expected in that area.

On Monday, the low will open up as it begins to lift toward the
northeast, with rain chances decreasing and shifting eastward
through Monday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected thereafter,
with temperatures rebounding into the 50s and 60s by Tuesday
afternoon under quasi-zonal flow aloft. The warm-up will be short-
lived however, as another strong cold front moves through the
region on Wednesday, resulting in well below normal temperatures
and the potential for a widespread hard freeze Thursday morning.
Stay tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  43  46  40 /  50  70  80  60
Carlsbad                       55  38  45  36 /  10  70  80  60
Dryden                         65  54  57  46 /  10  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  66  45  48  38 /  10  70  80  70
Guadalupe Pass                 53  34  41  32 /   0  60  80  60
Hobbs                          48  37  41  34 /  30  70  80  60
Marfa                          65  40  50  34 /  10  50  80  70
Midland Intl Airport           56  42  46  39 /  40  70  80  60
Odessa                         56  42  45  38 /  40  70  80  60
Wink                           60  44  47  39 /  20  70  80  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

49/84
292
FXUS64 KMAF 020527
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1127 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight at most of the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. However prevailing
or tempo IFR ceilings are expected to develop at KHOB, KMAF and
KINK by 02/12Z. IFR ceilings are expected to continue at KMAF and
KHOB for the remainder of the TAF period with MVFR conditions
developing at KCNM, KFST, and KPEQ after 03/00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  42  53  43 /   0   0  50  70
Carlsbad                       56  33  55  38 /   0   0  10  70
Dryden                         63  46  63  53 /   0   0  10  70
Fort Stockton                  66  43  65  45 /   0   0  10  70
Guadalupe Pass                 56  40  53  34 /   0   0   0  60
Hobbs                          55  33  49  37 /   0   0  30  70
Marfa                          64  31  63  39 /   0   0   0  50
Midland Intl Airport           63  42  55  43 /   0   0  40  70
Odessa                         61  42  56  42 /   0   0  40  70
Wink                           61  38  60  43 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
763
FXUS64 KMAF 012255
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
455 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight at most of the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. However, MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop late tonight and affect KHOB,
KMAF and KINK by 02/12Z, with tempo IFR ceilings expected Friday
morning. There will also be tempo MVFR visibility in fog at these
terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A glance out the window and at vis sat imagery shows a beautiful
fall day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/sfc obs
showing afternoon temps have warmed just a few degrees above-normal.
However, big changes are in store over the next 24-36 hours.  WV
imagery shows an upper-lvl trough digging south along the west
coast, w/models in good agreement in closing it off by 12Z Fri and
reaching the AZ/Mexico border by 00Z Saturday.  During this time, a
cold front will backdoor into the area Fri, and push SW into the FA
Fri night.  Large scale ascent ahead of the trough and weak
isentropic upglide is forecast to develop -RA along and behind the
front, w/chances increasing E-W Fri night.  As the trough digs
further SE into Sonora late Fri night, instability is forecast to
creep in from the SW, w/H7 LIs going negative over the SW zones
after 06Z Sat, and introducing isolated thunder into the mix.  This
instability is forecast to develop north and east during the day
Saturday, while cold air continues to advect in from the NE.
Forecast soundings over the Guadalupes get cold enough after 12Z
Saturday to introduce a rain or snow mention, w/the temp trace
riding the 0C isotherm from the warm nose to the sfc.  Soundings
suggest rain or snow thru at least 12Z Sunday, but accumulations
should stay out of advisory/warning criteria.  By late Saturday
night, soundings suggest a brief rain/snow mix in the higher
elevations of the Davis Mtns.  Friday night thru Saturday night,
high gap winds will be possible thru KGDP, and a watch has been
issued. Bottom line is that it is going to be a very wet and cold
weekend.

Trough will continue digging deep into Sonora, then Chihuahua, and
then eject to the NE thru the Big Bend Region Sunday night, before
precip chances taper off Monday.  Temps should stay well-blo normal
during this time, and are not expected to climb back to above-normal
until Tuesday.  However, another cold front is due in later in the
week to take things back blo normal, although long range models
differ on timing.  Grids stay generally dry after Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  53  43  46 /   0  50  70  80
Carlsbad                       33  55  38  45 /   0  10  70  70
Dryden                         46  63  53  57 /   0  10  70  70
Fort Stockton                  43  65  45  48 /   0  10  70  80
Guadalupe Pass                 40  53  34  42 /   0   0  60  70
Hobbs                          33  49  37  42 /   0  30  70  70
Marfa                          31  63  39  49 /   0   0  50  80
Midland Intl Airport           42  55  43  46 /   0  40  70  80
Odessa                         42  56  42  46 /   0  40  70  80
Wink                           38  60  43  48 /   0  20  70  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/44
077
FXUS64 KMAF 012115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
315 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A glance out the window and at vis sat imagery shows a beautiful
fall day across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/sfc obs
showing afternoon temps have warmed just a few degrees above-normal.
However, big changes are in store over the next 24-36 hours.  WV
imagery shows an upper-lvl trough digging south along the west
coast, w/models in good agreement in closing it off by 12Z Fri and
reaching the AZ/Mexico border by 00Z Saturday.  During this time, a
cold front will backdoor into the area Fri, and push SW into the FA
Fri night.  Large scale ascent ahead of the trough and weak
isentropic upglide is forecast to develop -RA along and behind the
front, w/chances increasing E-W Fri night.  As the trough digs
further SE into Sonora late Fri night, instability is forecast to
creep in from the SW, w/H7 LIs going negative over the SW zones
after 06Z Sat, and introducing isolated thunder into the mix.  This
instability is forecast to develop north and east during the day
Saturday, while cold air continues to advect in from the NE.
Forecast soundings over the Guadalupes get cold enough after 12Z
Saturday to introduce a rain or snow mention, w/the temp trace
riding the 0C isotherm from the warm nose to the sfc.  Soundings
suggest rain or snow thru at least 12Z Sunday, but accumulations
should stay out of advisory/warning criteria.  By late Saturday
night, soundings suggest a brief rain/snow mix in the higher
elevations of the Davis Mtns.  Friday night thru Saturday night,
high gap winds will be possible thru KGDP, and a watch has been
issued.  Bottmo line is that it is going to be a very wet and cold
weekend.

Trough will continue digging deep into Sonora, then Chihuahua, and
then eject to the NE thru the Big Bend Region Sunday night, before
precip chances taper off Monday.  Temps should stay well-blo normal
during this time, and are not expected to climb back to above-normal
until Tuesday.  However, another cold front is due in later in the
week to take things back blo normal, although long range models
differ on timing.  Grids stay generally dry after Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  53  43  46 /   0  50  70  80
Carlsbad                       33  55  38  45 /   0  10  70  70
Dryden                         46  63  53  57 /   0  10  70  70
Fort Stockton                  43  65  45  48 /   0  10  70  80
Guadalupe Pass                 40  53  34  42 /   0   0  60  70
Hobbs                          33  49  37  42 /   0  30  70  70
Marfa                          31  63  39  49 /   0   0  50  80
Midland Intl Airport           42  55  43  46 /   0  40  70  80
Odessa                         42  56  42  46 /   0  40  70  80
Wink                           38  60  43  48 /   0  20  70  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/44
571
FXUS64 KMAF 011714
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and most of the night at
all area terminals.  However, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop
late tonight and affect KHOB, KMAF and KINK by 02/12Z, with ceilings
decreasing to IFR by 02/15Z.  There may also be MVFR visibility in
fog at these terminals.  Rain could develop by 02/18Z, but will not
include any obstruction to visibility at this time since probability
is too low.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light southerly/light and variable winds will
prevail through the forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

Upper low has moved east to the Great Lakes Region while a new
one comes down from the Canadian NW. Models continue to dig this
new trough cutting it off around the Mexican border early
Saturday. It wanders around Mexico Sunday before opening up and
moving over the region early Monday. Another trough dives across
the Rockies late Tuesday/early Wednesday as active pattern
continues. After this trough skirts NM/TX and moves east will have
high pressure behind it.

Cold and clear this morning with temps at 08z in the 20s north to
the 40s south.  Yesterday Tatum was the coldest in the area at 16
degrees and Rio Grande the warmest at 72 degrees.  It will be warmer
today with highs mainly in the 60s.  On Friday a front looks to move
into the northern CWA before hanging up with the wind blowing out of
the east along it... then will push through rest of area overnight.
Could see wind approach high wind criteria at GDP Saturday morning.
Saturday should warm little off the morning low with highs in the
40s north and 50s south. A chilly night Saturday night and another
day of below normal highs Sunday. Temperatures return to near
normal by Tuesday.

Do have wet weekend ahead with precip starting on Friday mainly over
the east then spreading westward overnight.  Precip should be all
liquid except possibility of mixing with snow in the Guadalupes
Friday night.  Saturday looks like the best chance of rain... some
locations may receive a good rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  43  54  43 /   0   0  40  70
Carlsbad                       63  32  59  39 /   0   0  10  60
Dryden                         67  48  63  53 /   0   0  20  50
Fort Stockton                  66  44  66  46 /   0   0  10  50
Guadalupe Pass                 57  41  56  34 /   0   0  10  50
Hobbs                          60  33  52  37 /   0   0  30  60
Marfa                          63  29  64  38 /   0   0   0  40
Midland Intl Airport           63  42  59  43 /   0   0  30  60
Odessa                         63  42  59  43 /   0   0  30  60
Wink                           64  40  63  45 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
273
FXUS64 KMAF 011112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light southerly/light and variable winds will
prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low has moved east to the Great Lakes Region while a new one
comes down from the Canadian NW.  Models continue to dig this new
trough cutting it off around the Mexican border early Saturday.
It wanders around Mexico Sunday before opening up and moving over
the region early Monday. Another trough dives across the Rockies
late Tuesday/early Wednesday as active pattern continues. After
this trough skirts NM/TX and moves east will have high pressure
behind it.

Cold and clear this morning with temps at 08z in the 20s north to
the 40s south.  Yesterday Tatum was the coldest in the area at 16
degrees and Rio Grande the warmest at 72 degrees.  It will be warmer
today with highs mainly in the 60s.  On Friday a front looks to move
into the northern CWA before hanging up with the wind blowing out of
the east along it... then will push through rest of area overnight.
Could see wind approach high wind criteria at GDP Saturday morning.
Saturday should warm little off the morning low with highs in the
40s north and 50s south. A chilly night Saturday night and another
day of below normal highs Sunday. Temperatures return to near
normal by Tuesday.

Do have wet weekend ahead with precip starting on Friday mainly over
the east then spreading westward overnight.  Precip should be all
liquid except possibility of mixing with snow in the Guadalupes
Friday night.  Saturday looks like the best chance of rain... some
locations may receive a good rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  43  54  43 /   0   0  40  70
Carlsbad                       63  32  59  39 /   0   0  10  60
Dryden                         67  48  63  53 /   0   0  20  50
Fort Stockton                  66  44  66  46 /   0   0  10  50
Guadalupe Pass                 57  41  56  34 /   0   0  10  50
Hobbs                          60  33  52  37 /   0   0  30  60
Marfa                          63  29  64  38 /   0   0   0  40
Midland Intl Airport           63  42  59  43 /   0   0  30  60
Odessa                         63  42  59  43 /   0   0  30  60
Wink                           64  40  63  45 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
879
FXUS64 KMAF 010925
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
325 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low has moved east to the Great Lakes Region while a new one
comes down from the Canadian NW.  Models continue to dig this new
trough cutting it off around the Mexican border early Saturday.
It wanders around Mexico Sunday before opening up and moving over
the region early Monday. Another trough dives across the Rockies
late Tuesday/early Wednesday as active pattern continues. After
this trough skirts NM/TX and moves east will have high pressure
behind it.

Cold and clear this morning with temps at 08z in the 20s north to
the 40s south.  Yesterday Tatum was the coldest in the area at 16
degrees and Rio Grande the warmest at 72 degrees.  It will be warmer
today with highs mainly in the 60s.  On Friday a front looks to move
into the northern CWA before hanging up with the wind blowing out of
the east along it... then will push through rest of area overnight.
Could see wind approach high wind criteria at GDP Saturday morning.
Saturday should warm little off the morning low with highs in the
40s north and 50s south. A chilly night Saturday night and another
day of below normal highs Sunday. Temperatures return to near
normal by Tuesday.

Do have wet weekend ahead with precip starting on Friday mainly over
the east then spreading westward overnight.  Precip should be all
liquid except possibility of mixing with snow in the Guadalupes
Friday night.  Saturday looks like the best chance of rain... some
locations may receive a good rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  43  54  43 /   0   0  40  70
Carlsbad                       63  32  59  39 /   0   0  10  60
Dryden                         67  48  63  53 /   0   0  20  50
Fort Stockton                  66  44  66  46 /   0   0  10  50
Guadalupe Pass                 57  41  56  34 /   0   0  10  50
Hobbs                          60  33  52  37 /   0   0  30  60
Marfa                          63  29  64  38 /   0   0   0  40
Midland Intl Airport           63  42  59  43 /   0   0  30  60
Odessa                         63  42  59  43 /   0   0  30  60
Wink                           64  40  63  45 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
419
FXUS64 KMAF 010446
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds will continue through the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends
southward into Texas while another upper trough is moving over the
Pacific Northwest.  This upper pattern has resulted in westerly flow
aloft.  Temperatures today are expected to be mostly in the 50s
across the area in the wake of a cold front that moved through last
night.

The upper trough centered over the Midwest moves just to the north
of the Great Lakes area while the trough over the Pacific Northwest
moves southeastward on Thursday.  Surface winds will become
southwesterly and temperatures Thursday afternoon will warm up to
around normal values.  On Friday, the upper trough over the western
conus becomes more pronounced and digs south into Mexico and is
centered over Arizona.  Height falls over the area due to the
approaching upper trough will lead to slightly cooler temperatures
on Friday.  Upper lift and moisture will also increase across the
area on Friday in advance of this trough so rain with isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across northern and eastern sections
of the CWA.

A cold front will move into the area Friday night and precipitation
chances as well as areal coverage will increase across the CWA. Low
temperatures Saturday morning are expected to be near the freezing
point across the Guadalupe Mountains so rain mixed with snow is
possible. The heaviest precipitation appears to be during the day on
Saturday areawide.  High temperatures on Saturday will be much
colder with highs mostly in the 40s behind the cold front.
Precipitation will continue across the area into Saturday night.  It
should mostly be in the form of rain but snow flurries mixed in
across the higher terrain remain possible.  Expect that there will
be a slight warm up on Sunday with precipitation chances remaining
across the area.

The models indicate that the precipitation will be ending by Monday
evening with temperatures warming up more on Monday.  Another upper
trough is expected to impact the region during mid week next week
with another cold front moving into the area.  For now the models
keep this next system mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  62  39  54 /   0   0   0  40
Carlsbad                       28  60  33  57 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         38  67  46  63 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  36  66  42  64 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 33  56  41  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          26  57  32  53 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                          24  63  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  63  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Odessa                         32  63  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Wink                           31  64  38  62 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
916
FXUS64 KMAF 302311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends
southward into Texas while another upper trough is moving over the
Pacific Northwest.  This upper pattern has resulted in westerly flow
aloft.  Temperatures today are expected to be mostly in the 50s
across the area in the wake of a cold front that moved through last
night.

The upper trough centered over the Midwest moves just to the north
of the Great Lakes area while the trough over the Pacific Northwest
moves southeastward on Thursday.  Surface winds will become
southwesterly and temperatures Thursday afternoon will warm up to
around normal values.  On Friday, the upper trough over the western
conus becomes more pronounced and digs south into Mexico and is
centered over Arizona.  Height falls over the area due to the
approaching upper trough will lead to slightly cooler temperatures
on Friday.  Upper lift and moisture will also increase across the
area on Friday in advance of this trough so rain with isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across northern and eastern sections
of the CWA.

A cold front will move into the area Friday night and precipitation
chances as well as areal coverage will increase across the CWA. Low
temperatures Saturday morning are expected to be near the freezing
point across the Guadalupe Mountains so rain mixed with snow is
possible. The heaviest precipitation appears to be during the day on
Saturday areawide.  High temperatures on Saturday will be much
colder with highs mostly in the 40s behind the cold front.
Precipitation will continue across the area into Saturday night.  It
should mostly be in the form of rain but snow flurries mixed in
across the higher terrain remain possible.  Expect that there will
be a slight warm up on Sunday with precipitation chances remaining
across the area.

The models indicate that the precipitation will be ending by Monday
evening with temperatures warming up more on Monday.  Another upper
trough is expected to impact the region during mid week next week
with another cold front moving into the area.  For now the models
keep this next system mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  62  39  54 /   0   0   0  40
Carlsbad                       28  60  33  57 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         38  67  46  63 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  36  66  42  64 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 33  56  41  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          26  57  32  53 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                          24  63  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  63  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Odessa                         32  63  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Wink                           31  64  38  62 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
364
FXUS64 KMAF 302017
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
217 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over the Upper Midwest and extends
southward into Texas while another upper trough is moving over the
Pacific Northwest.  This upper pattern has resulted in westerly flow
aloft.  Temperatures today are expected to be mostly in the 50s
across the area in the wake of a cold front that moved through last
night.

The upper trough centered over the Midwest moves just to the north
of the Great Lakes area while the trough over the Pacific Northwest
moves southeastward on Thursday.  Surface winds will become
southwesterly and temperatures Thursday afternoon will warm up to
around normal values.  On Friday, the upper trough over the western
conus becomes more pronounced and digs south into Mexico and is
centered over Arizona.  Height falls over the area due to the
approaching upper trough will lead to slightly cooler temperatures
on Friday.  Upper lift and moisture will also increase across the
area on Friday in advance of this trough so rain with isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across northern and eastern sections
of the CWA.

A cold front will move into the area Friday night and precipitation
chances as well as areal coverage will increase across the CWA. Low
temperatures Saturday morning are expected to be near the freezing
point across the Guadalupe Mountains so rain mixed with snow is
possible. The heaviest precipitation appears to be during the day on
Saturday areawide.  High temperatures on Saturday will be much
colder with highs mostly in the 40s behind the cold front.
Precipitation will continue across the area into Saturday night.  It
should mostly be in the form of rain but snow flurries mixed in
across the higher terrain remain possible.  Expect that there will
be a slight warm up on Sunday with precipitation chances remaining
across the area.

The models indicate that the precipitation will be ending by Monday
evening with temperatures warming up more on Monday.  Another upper
trough is expected to impact the region during mid week next week
with another cold front moving into the area.  For now the models
keep this next system mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  62  39  54 /   0   0   0  40
Carlsbad                       28  60  33  57 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         38  67  46  63 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton                  36  66  42  64 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 33  56  41  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          26  57  32  53 /   0   0   0  30
Marfa                          24  63  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           32  63  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Odessa                         32  63  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Wink                           31  64  38  62 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
746
FXUS64 KMAF 301541
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
941 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, w/a few hi clouds.
Winds will remain light and variable, but weak return flow will
resume in general.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 922 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Latest obs show temps most locations have climbed above freezing,
and the Freeze Warning has been alowed to expire. We`ll do a quick
update to remove this, and adjust other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 522 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours, with light
northwesterly winds expected to shift to the south/southwest by
late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough swinging across the plains this morning pushing a
cold front south. As the trough moves east will have a brief
flat ridge over the region. Later today an upper trough will move
onto the NW coast moving across the Intermountain West on
Thursday. On Friday this trough digs southward to Mexico before
cutting off on Saturday. By Monday the low opens up and swings
east.

Have a weak cold front moving through the area this morning as the
wind shifts around to the N but models quickly bring it back to
the S by midday. Have an area of mid clouds over the region but do
have a clearing line moving across from west to east. Will have
very chilly temps this morning across the NW as colder air works
down into the region. A Freeze Warning is in effect this morning
for the Upper Trans Pecos westward to Culberson.

Temperatures will be cooler today in the 50s warming to near
normal in the 60s on Thursday and Friday. Lows mainly in the
30s. Another cold front sags down into the area Friday then pushes
through early Saturday. Highs only in the 40s Saturday.

Precip chances enter the forecast beginning Friday due to the cut
off low and continue through Sunday night. For now keeping all
precip as liquid but will have to monitor developments if a
mention of snow will be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       56  28  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  38  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  58  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  31  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  27  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  24  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         56  32  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           56  29  66  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
152
FXUS64 KMAF 301522
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
922 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs show temps most locations have climbed above freezing,
and the Freeze Warning has been alowed to expire. We`ll do a quick
update to remove this, and adjust other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 522 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours, with light
northwesterly winds expected to shift to the south/southwest by
late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough swinging across the plains this morning pushing a
cold front south. As the trough moves east will have a brief
flat ridge over the region. Later today an upper trough will move
onto the NW coast moving across the Intermountain West on
Thursday. On Friday this trough digs southward to Mexico before
cutting off on Saturday. By Monday the low opens up and swings
east.

Have a weak cold front moving through the area this morning as the
wind shifts around to the N but models quickly bring it back to
the S by midday. Have an area of mid clouds over the region but do
have a clearing line moving across from west to east. Will have
very chilly temps this morning across the NW as colder air works
down into the region. A Freeze Warning is in effect this morning
for the Upper Trans Pecos westward to Culberson.

Temperatures will be cooler today in the 50s warming to near
normal in the 60s on Thursday and Friday. Lows mainly in the
30s. Another cold front sags down into the area Friday then pushes
through early Saturday. Highs only in the 40s Saturday.

Precip chances enter the forecast beginning Friday due to the cut
off low and continue through Sunday night. For now keeping all
precip as liquid but will have to monitor developments if a
mention of snow will be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       56  28  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  38  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  58  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 48  31  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  27  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  24  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         56  32  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           56  29  66  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80
097
FXUS64 KMAF 301122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
522 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours, with light
northwesterly winds expected to shift to the south/southwest by
late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper trough swinging across the plains this morning pushing a
cold front south. As the trough moves east will have a brief
flat ridge over the region. Later today an upper trough will move
onto the NW coast moving across the Intermountain West on
Thursday. On Friday this trough digs southward to Mexico before
cutting off on Saturday. By Monday the low opens up and swings
east.

Have a weak cold front moving through the area this morning as the
wind shifts around to the N but models quickly bring it back to
the S by midday. Have an area of mid clouds over the region but do
have a clearing line moving across from west to east. Will have
very chilly temps this morning across the NW as colder air works
down into the region. A Freeze Warning is in effect this morning
for the Upper Trans Pecos westward to Culberson.

Temperatures will be cooler today in the 50s warming to near
normal in the 60s on Thursday and Friday. Lows mainly in the
30s. Another cold front sags down into the area Friday then pushes
through early Saturday. Highs only in the 40s Saturday.

Precip chances enter the forecast beginning Friday due to the cut
off low and continue through Sunday night. For now keeping all
precip as liquid but will have to monitor developments if a
mention of snow will be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  28  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  38  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  59  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  31  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  27  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          54  24  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         58  32  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           58  29  66  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
534
FXUS64 KMAF 300926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
326 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough swinging across the plains this morning pushing a cold
front south. As the trough moves east will have a brief flat ridge
over the region. Later today an upper trough will move onto the NW
coast moving across the Intermountain West on Thursday. On Friday
this trough digs southward to Mexico before cutting off on
Saturday. By Monday the low opens up and swings east.

Have a weak cold front moving through the area this morning as the
wind shifts around to the N but models quickly bring it back to the
S by midday.  Have an area of mid clouds over the region but do have
a clearing line moving across from west to east.  Will have very
chilly temps this morning across the NW as colder air works down
into the region. A Freeze Warning is in effect this morning for
the Upper Trans Pecos westward to Culberson.

Temperatures will be cooler today in the 50s warming to near normal
in the 60s on Thursday and Friday.  Lows mainly in the 30s.  Another
cold front sags down into the area Friday then pushes through early
Saturday. Highs only in the 40s Saturday.

Precip chances enter the forecast beginning Friday due to the cut
off low and continue through Sunday night.  For now keeping all
precip as liquid but will have to monitor developments if a
mention of snow will be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       57  28  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  38  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  59  36  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  31  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          53  27  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          54  24  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  32  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         58  32  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           58  29  66  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

84/72
486
FXUS64 KMAF 300450
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1050 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue through the period with light northwest
winds becoming southerly around 18Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper level trough is over most of the country with the CWA
at the south end.  Temperatures today are expected to be a little
cooler than yesterday as lower heights spread across the region due
to the upper trough.  A cold front will move through the area
tonight in association with the upper trough.  Overnight lows will
likely reach the freezing point or below for much of the area.  Some
areas will likely receive their first hard freeze so a Hard Freeze
Warning is in effect for tonight/early tomorrow morning for the
Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn area, and the Upper Trans Pecos.

On Wednesday, the previously mentioned upper trough will begin to
move eastward while another upper low moves over the Pacific
Northwest.  Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than normal
with highs mostly in the 50s.  Temperatures are expected to be near
normal on Thursday with highs in the lower 60s across the Permian
Basin.  The upper low that was over the Pacific Northwest will move
southeastward and will be over/near the Four Corners region on
Friday.  Upper lift will increase in advance of this approaching
trough allowing for a chance of rain across eastern and northern
sections of the CWA on Friday.

A cold front will also be moving into the area Friday into Friday
night.  Precipitation coverage will be more widespread across the
area on Saturday with high temperatures only in the 40s across much
of the CWA. Models have come into better agreement with the track of
the upper low/trough digging it down into Mexico then lifting it up
over Texas on Monday. Due to low temperatures reaching the freezing
point across the higher terrain, portions of southeast New Mexico,
and the northwest Permian Basin this weekend, a chance of a
rain/snow mix has added to the forecast for the weekend overnight
periods.  Temperatures appear to warm up a little bit on Sunday with
precipitation across the area. Both models show the precipitation to
be gone by Monday evening with temperatures warming up closer to
normal values. Temperatures next Tuesday are expected to warm up to
above normal in advance of the next approaching upper trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  56  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         37  62  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  58  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  53  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          22  54  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           28  58  29  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/
     Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/10
185
FXUS64 KMAF 292309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the period. Gusty winds will
diminish after 2-4 hours and will remain light the remainder of
the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper level trough is over most of the country with the CWA
at the south end.  Temperatures today are expected to be a little
cooler than yesterday as lower heights spread across the region due
to the upper trough.  A cold front will move through the area
tonight in association with the upper trough.  Overnight lows will
likely reach the freezing point or below for much of the area.  Some
areas will likely receive their first hard freeze so a Hard Freeze
Warning is in effect for tonight/early tomorrow morning for the
Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn area, and the Upper Trans Pecos.

On Wednesday, the previously mentioned upper trough will begin to
move eastward while another upper low moves over the Pacific
Northwest.  Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than normal
with highs mostly in the 50s.  Temperatures are expected to be near
normal on Thursday with highs in the lower 60s across the Permian
Basin.  The upper low that was over the Pacific Northwest will move
southeastward and will be over/near the Four Corners region on
Friday.  Upper lift will increase in advance of this approaching
trough allowing for a chance of rain across eastern and northern
sections of the CWA on Friday.

A cold front will also be moving into the area Friday into Friday
night.  Precipitation coverage will be more widespread across the
area on Saturday with high temperatures only in the 40s across much
of the CWA. Models have come into better agreement with the track of
the upper low/trough digging it down into Mexico then lifting it up
over Texas on Monday. Due to low temperatures reaching the freezing
point across the higher terrain, portions of southeast New Mexico,
and the northwest Permian Basin this weekend, a chance of a
rain/snow mix has added to the forecast for the weekend overnight
periods.  Temperatures appear to warm up a little bit on Sunday with
precipitation across the area. Both models show the precipitation to
be gone by Monday evening with temperatures warming up closer to
normal values. Temperatures next Tuesday are expected to warm up to
above normal in advance of the next approaching upper trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  56  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         37  62  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  58  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  53  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          22  54  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           28  58  29  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/
     Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99/10
719
FXUS64 KMAF 292026
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper level trough is over most of the country with the CWA
at the south end.  Temperatures today are expected to be a little
cooler than yesterday as lower heights spread across the region due
to the upper trough.  A cold front will move through the area
tonight in association with the upper trough.  Overnight lows will
likely reach the freezing point or below for much of the area.  Some
areas will likely receive their first hard freeze so a Hard Freeze
Warning is in effect for tonight/early tomorrow morning for the
Guadalupe Mountains, Van Horn area, and the Upper Trans Pecos.

On Wednesday, the previously mentioned upper trough will begin to
move eastward while another upper low moves over the Pacific
Northwest.  Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than normal
with highs mostly in the 50s.  Temperatures are expected to be near
normal on Thursday with highs in the lower 60s across the Permian
Basin.  The upper low that was over the Pacific Northwest will move
southeastward and will be over/near the Four Corners region on
Friday.  Upper lift will increase in advance of this approaching
trough allowing for a chance of rain across eastern and northern
sections of the CWA on Friday.

A cold front will also be moving into the area Friday into Friday
night.  Precipitation coverage will be more widespread across the
area on Saturday with high temperatures only in the 40s across much
of the CWA. Models have come into better agreement with the track of
the upper low/trough digging it down into Mexico then lifting it up
over Texas on Monday. Due to low temperatures reaching the freezing
point across the higher terrain, portions of southeast New Mexico,
and the northwest Permian Basin this weekend, a chance of a
rain/snow mix has added to the forecast for the weekend overnight
periods.  Temperatures appear to warm up a little bit on Sunday with
precipitation across the area. Both models show the precipitation to
be gone by Monday evening with temperatures warming up closer to
normal values. Temperatures next Tuesday are expected to warm up to
above normal in advance of the next approaching upper trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  56  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         37  62  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  58  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          25  53  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          22  54  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  58  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           28  58  29  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/
     Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

44/80
451
FXUS64 KMAF 291535
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty westerlies are
anticipated this afternoon, but should decouple after sunset and
become light by the end of the forecast period as gradients
slacken. A few mid/hi clouds are expected, as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will increase out of the west by around 16Z this morning, with
gusts to 20-30kt possible through the afternoon. Gusts will
gradually diminish after 30/00Z as winds veer to the northwest.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
There is an upper low centered west of the Great Lakes this
morning with a trough extending southwestward to Mexico. As this
trough moves east will get some brief ridging before a secondary
trough moves down the West Coast.

Should be breezy again today with a brisk west wind. This will
come around to the NW tonight when the upper trough pushes a
cold front through the area. All the counties except along the Rio
Grande have had a freeze this season but many of the central
counties have not had a hard freeze. Cold air advection along with
a dry airmass should result in a hard freeze late tonight/early
Wednesday morning for the Upper Trans Pecos counties westward to
Culberson. Should see lows into the 20s for SE NM... Western
Permian Basin... and much of the Trans Pecos. Will go ahead and
issue a Freeze Warning for a hard freeze for those counties late
tonight. Temperatures warm mid week before another front toward
the weekend knocks them down.

There is uncertainty in the models as how the West Coast trough
will turn out. Some models show the trough progressing across
the area while others develop it into a cut off low to the west.
There will be the possibility of precip developing with this
system and for now will keep it all in liquid form.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  31  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  40  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  33  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  27  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          57  25  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  22  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  30  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         61  29  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           62  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/
     Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

44/80/44
680
FXUS64 KMAF 291143
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will increase out of the west by around 16Z this morning, with
gusts to 20-30kt possible through the afternoon. Gusts will
gradually diminish after 30/00Z as winds veer to the northwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
There is an upper low centered west of the Great Lakes this
morning with a trough extending southwestward to Mexico. As this
trough moves east will get some brief ridging before a secondary
trough moves down the West Coast.

Should be breezy again today with a brisk west wind. This will
come around to the NW tonight when the upper trough pushes a
cold front through the area. All the counties except along the Rio
Grande have had a freeze this season but many of the central
counties have not had a hard freeze. Cold air advection along with
a dry airmass should result in a hard freeze late tonight/early
Wednesday morning for the Upper Trans Pecos counties westward to
Culberson. Should see lows into the 20s for SE NM... Western
Permian Basin... and much of the Trans Pecos. Will go ahead and
issue a Freeze Warning for a hard freeze for those counties late
tonight. Temperatures warm mid week before another front toward
the weekend knocks them down.

There is uncertainty in the models as how the West Coast trough
will turn out. Some models show the trough progressing across
the area while others develop it into a cut off low to the west.
There will be the possibility of precip developing with this
system and for now will keep it all in liquid form.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  31  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  40  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  33  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  27  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          57  25  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  22  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  30  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         61  29  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           62  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/
     Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$
368
FXUS64 KMAF 290935
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
335 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
There is an upper low centered west of the Great Lakes this morning
with a trough extending southwestward to Mexico.  As this trough
moves east will get some brief ridging before a secondary trough
moves down the West Coast.

Should be breezy again today with a brisk west wind.  This will come
around to the NW tonight when the upper trough pushes a cold front
through the area.  All the counties except along the Rio Grande have
had a freeze this season but many of the central counties have not
had a hard freeze.  Cold air advection along with a dry airmass
should result in a hard freeze late tonight/early Wednesday morning
for the Upper Trans Pecos counties westward to Culberson.  Should
see lows into the 20s for SE NM... Western Permian Basin... and much
of the Trans Pecos.  Will go ahead and issue a Freeze Warning for a
hard freeze for those counties late tonight.  Temperatures warm mid
week before another front toward the weekend knocks them down.

There is uncertainty in the models as how the West Coast trough will
turn out.  Some models show the trough progressing across the area
while others develop it into a cut off low to the west.  There will
be the possibility of precip developing with this system and for
now will keep it all in liquid form.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  31  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  40  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  33  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  27  49  30 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          57  25  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  22  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  30  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         61  29  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           62  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ to 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/
     Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

&&

$$

84/72
975
FXUS64 KMAF 290447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Update to cancel the High Wind Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High winds for the most locations have fallen below criteria for
a high wind warning. Winds will continue to decrease into the
night in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. Winds remain elevated
in the higher elevations of the Guadlupe Mountains. It may be
possible a brief gust of high winds could be observed within the
next hour. Davis Mountains have dropped off in intensity already
and should remain that way.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals overnight and
Tuesday.  West to northwest winds will increase around 29/15Z to 29
17Z, and stay gusty through the afternoon.  Sustained winds around
20kt are expected at most terminals, with a few gusts eclipsing
30kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  57  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  69  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  62  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  47  27  48 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  53  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  59  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  58  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  60  28  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
968
FXUS64 KMAF 290005 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to remove the Wind Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds have decreased below wind advisory conditions across most of
southeast New Mexico, Marfa Plateau and parts of the Trans Pecos.
Some spots may see advisory criteria for the next 30 minutes to an
hour. Winds will not be widespread enough to warrant keeping an
advisory out. High Wind Warning remains in effect as winds remain
elevated across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. High Wind
Warning expires at 11 pm CST and will consider extending or
letting it drop later this evening.

&&

DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, but brisk winds trail this feature, as
evidenced by sfc obs and cloud streets/mtn waves on vis imagery.
These clouds are once again hampering mixing, making the wind
forecast over the next few hours difficult.  Both the NAM and GFS
keep H7 winds up well into the evening hours, but these drop off
rapidly after 06Z.  Winds on the plains have been barely into
advisory criteria the last few hours, and lower lvl winds should
decouple rapidly w/sunset, so we`ll let the advisories expire as
scheduled, and keep the warning for the higher elevations going thru
06Z.

Despite the arrival of the Pac front, temps still managed to creep
above normal in many locations this afternoon.  West winds have
scoured all lower level moisture east, but incoming cloud cover and
west winds overnight should keep temps from falling much further
than they did last night.  NW flow aloft will continue Tuesday,
w/temps dropping below normal Tuesday afternoon, before a secondary,
dry trough drops a cold front in overnight, for a hard freeze
Wednesday morning NW zones.  Temps bottom out Wednesday afternoon
before return flow resumes and pushes temps back to near-normal
Thursday.  Then the real fun begins.

Long range models are still digging a major upper trough down the
west coast, to roughly the Four Corners by 12Z Friday.  From there
they begin diverging significantly, w/one solution remaining open
and ejecting into central Texas by 00Z Sunday, whereas others close
off this feature over the Gulf of California.  On Sunday, the GFS
over the Gulf of California begins moving up thru Texas, whereas the
DGEX lags by about 18 hours.  In other words, confidence is very low
in the evolution of this system attm.  However, a blend suggests
rain chances increasing beginning Friday thru Saturday night, then
tapering off thru Monday.  If the lagging models pan out, rain
chances will likely continue into next week.  Attm, temps don`t
look to get cold enough for frozen precip to factor in, but this
could easily change.  Stayed tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  57  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  69  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  62  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  47  27  48 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  53  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  59  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  58  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  60  28  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.


TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

99/99
749
FXUS64 KMAF 282359
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to remove the Wind Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winds have decreased below wind advisory conditions across most of
southeast New Mexico, Marfa Plateau and parts of the Trans Pecos.
Some spots may see advisory criteria for the next 30 minutes to an
hour. Winds will not be widespread enough to warrant keeping an
advisory out. High Wind Warning remains in effect as winds remain
elevated across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. High Wind
Warning expires at 11 pm CST and will consider extending or
letting it drop later this evening.

&&

DISCUSSION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, but brisk winds trail this feature, as
evidenced by sfc obs and cloud streets/mtn waves on vis imagery.
These clouds are once again hampering mixing, making the wind
forecast over the next few hours difficult.  Both the NAM and GFS
keep H7 winds up well into the evening hours, but these drop off
rapidly after 06Z.  Winds on the plains have been barely into
advisory criteria the last few hours, and lower lvl winds should
decouple rapidly w/sunset, so we`ll let the advisories expire as
scheduled, and keep the warning for the higher elevations going thru
06Z.

Despite the arrival of the Pac front, temps still managed to creep
above normal in many locations this afternoon.  West winds have
scoured all lower level moisture east, but incoming cloud cover and
west winds overnight should keep temps from falling much further
than they did last night.  NW flow aloft will continue Tuesday,
w/temps dropping below normal Tuesday afternoon, before a secondary,
dry trough drops a cold front in overnight, for a hard freeze
Wednesday morning NW zones.  Temps bottom out Wednesday afternoon
before return flow resumes and pushes temps back to near-normal
Thursday.  Then the real fun begins.

Long range models are still digging a major upper trough down the
west coast, to roughly the Four Corners by 12Z Friday.  From there
they begin diverging significantly, w/one solution remaining open
and ejecting into central Texas by 00Z Sunday, whereas others close
off this feature over the Gulf of California.  On Sunday, the GFS
over the Gulf of California begins moving up thru Texas, whereas the
DGEX lags by about 18 hours.  In other words, confidence is very low
in the evolution of this system attm.  However, a blend suggests
rain chances increasing beginning Friday thru Saturday night, then
tapering off thru Monday.  If the lagging models pan out, rain
chances will likely continue into next week.  Attm, temps don`t
look to get cold enough for frozen precip to factor in, but this
could easily change.  Stayed tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  57  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  69  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  62  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  47  27  48 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  53  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  59  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  58  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  60  28  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99
830
FXUS64 KMAF 282316
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
516 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Westerly winds will decouple and diminish through 29/02Z, while
VFR conditions prevail through tonight and Tuesday.  A couple of
terminals may see winds briefly spike up this evening, but winds
should not last as temperatures continue to cool.  West to
northwest surface winds will increase again, but generally after
29/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, but brisk winds trail this feature, as
evidenced by sfc obs and cloud streets/mtn waves on vis imagery.
These clouds are once again hampering mixing, making the wind
forecast over the next few hours difficult.  Both the NAM and GFS
keep H7 winds up well into the evening hours, but these drop off
rapidly after 06Z.  Winds on the plains have been barely into
advisory criteria the last few hours, and lower lvl winds should
decouple rapidly w/sunset, so we`ll let the advisories expire as
scheduled, and keep the warning for the higher elevations going thru
06Z.

Despite the arrival of the Pac front, temps still managed to creep
above normal in many locations this afternoon.  West winds have
scoured all lower level moisture east, but incoming cloud cover and
west winds overnight should keep temps from falling much further
than they did last night.  NW flow aloft will continue Tuesday,
w/temps dropping below normal Tuesday afternoon, before a secondary,
dry trough drops a cold front in overnight, for a hard freeze
Wednesday morning NW zones.  Temps bottom out Wednesday afternoon
before return flow resumes and pushes temps back to near-normal
Thursday.  Then the real fun begins.

Long range models are still digging a major upper trough down the
west coast, to roughly the Four Corners by 12Z Friday.  From there
they begin diverging significantly, w/one solution remaining open
and ejecting into central Texas by 00Z Sunday, whereas others close
off this feature over the Gulf of California.  On Sunday, the GFS
over the Gulf of California begins moving up thru Texas, whereas the
DGEX lags by about 18 hours.  In other words, confidence is very low
in the evolution of this system attm.  However, a blend suggests
rain chances increasing beginning Friday thru Saturday night, then
tapering off thru Monday.  If the lagging models pan out, rain
chances will likely continue into next week.  Attm, temps don`t
look to get cold enough for frozen precip to factor in, but this
could easily change.  Stayed tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  57  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  69  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  62  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  47  27  48 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  53  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  59  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  58  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  60  28  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

80/44
116
FXUS64 KMAF 282130
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
330 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough has cleared West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, but brisk winds trail this feature, as
evidenced by sfc obs and cloud streets/mtn waves on vis imagery.
These clouds are once again hampering mixing, making the wind
forecast over the next few hours difficult.  Both the NAM and GFS
keep H7 winds up well into the evening hours, but these drop off
rapidly after 06Z.  Winds on the plains have been barely into
advisory criteria the last few hours, and lower lvl winds should
decouple rapidly w/sunset, so we`ll let the advisories expire as
scheduled, and keep the warning for the higher elevations going thru
06Z.

Despite the arrival of the Pac front, temps still managed to creep
above normal in many locations this afternoon.  West winds have
scoured all lower level moisture east, but incoming cloud cover and
west winds overnight should keep temps from falling much further
than they did last night.  NW flow aloft will continue Tuesday,
w/temps dropping below normal Tuesday afternoon, before a secondary,
dry trough drops a cold front in overnight, for a hard freeze
Wednesday morning NW zones.  Temps bottom out Wednesday afternoon
before return flow resumes and pushes temps back to near-normal
Thursday.  Then the real fun begins.

Long range models are still digging a major upper trough down the
west coast, to roughly the Four Corners by 12Z Friday.  From there
they begin diverging significantly, w/one solution remaining open
and ejecting into central Texas by 00Z Sunday, whereas others close
off this feature over the Gulf of California.  On Sunday, the GFS
over the Gulf of California begins moving up thru Texas, whereas the
DGEX lags by about 18 hours.  In other words, confidence is very low
in the evolution of this system attm.  However, a blend suggests
rain chances increasing beginning Friday thru Saturday night, then
tapering off thru Monday.  If the lagging models pan out, rain
chances will likely continue into next week.  Attm, temps don`t
look to get cold enough for frozen precip to factor in, but this
could easily change.  Stayed tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  61  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  57  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         45  69  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  62  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  47  27  48 /   0  10   0   0
Hobbs                          36  53  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           43  59  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  58  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           40  60  28  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

80/44
808
FXUS64 KMAF 281719
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1119 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Strong and gusty west winds will prevail this afternoon. There is
a chance of blowing dust this afternoon reducing visibilities;
otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Winds are expected to
decrease around 00z but the extent to which the gusts will be
diminished is uncertain. Expect winds to remain elevated overnight
though. Winds will pick up again in intensity around 18z tomorrow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Yesterday the cloud cover did not push east as expected, thus
boundary layer mixing was limited and stronger winds aloft did not
mix to the surface as expected. There will be fewer clouds today,
but there may be enough to again inhibit mixing so have been a
little more conservative with the areal coverage of the Wind
Advisory for today keeping it in the plains adjacent to the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. The amount of clouds will have to
be closely monitored today and if mostly clear skies develop
across the area then the Wind Advisory may need to be extended
farther east.

These winds are being caused by zonal flow along the southern
periphery of a slow moving low over the upper midwest. A shortwave
trough dropping down the backside of the low will push a cold
front into the area tomorrow evening cooling temps a few degrees,
however the main feature to watch will be an upper low developing
to our west by the end of the week. All models show this low
developing over the western U.S. and dropping south into
northwestern Mexico though there are differences in the strength
and movement of the low as it moves east into Texas. The ECMWF is
faster and weaker with the low which would give us less rainfall.
GFS is stronger with the low which would give us more
precipitation, unless the low digs too far south and gets caught
under a Pacific Northwest ridge. For now will continue the strong
chance PoPs for the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  45  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       62  39  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  45  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  43  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  35  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          59  36  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  33  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  44  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  43  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  40  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
340
FXUS64 KMAF 281056
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
456 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under clear to partly cloudy
skies. West winds are expected to increase by mid morning to 20
to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph through sunset. Winds will become
west to southwest by early evening at 10 to 15 mph and continue
overnight. The exception will be KCNM where west winds are
expected tonight at 15 to 25 mph and gusty.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Yesterday the cloud cover did not push east as expected, thus
boundary layer mixing was limited and stronger winds aloft did not
mix to the surface as expected. There will be fewer clouds today,
but there may be enough to again inhibit mixing so have been a
little more conservative with the areal coverage of the Wind
Advisory for today keeping it in the plains adjacent to the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. The amount of clouds will have to
be closely monitored today and if mostly clear skies develop
across the area then the Wind Advisory may need to be extended
farther east.

These winds are being caused by zonal flow along the southern
periphery of a slow moving low over the upper midwest. A shortwave
trough dropping down the backside of the low will push a cold
front into the area tomorrow evening cooling temps a few degrees,
however the main feature to watch will be an upper low developing
to our west by the end of the week. All models show this low
developing over the western U.S. and dropping south into
northwestern Mexico though there are differences in the strength
and movement of the low as it moves east into Texas. The ECMWF is
faster and weaker with the low which would give us less rainfall.
GFS is stronger with the low which would give us more
precipitation, unless the low digs too far south and gets caught
under a Pacific Northwest ridge. For now will continue the strong
chance PoPs for the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  45  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       62  39  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  45  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  43  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  35  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          59  36  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  33  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  44  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  43  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  40  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM CST
     /5 PM MST/ this evening for Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/12
248
FXUS64 KMAF 280932
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
332 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Yesterday the cloud cover did not push east as expected, thus
boundary layer mixing was limited and stronger winds aloft did not
mix to the surface as expected. There will be fewer clouds today,
but there may be enough to again inhibit mixing so have been a
little more conservative with the areal coverage of the Wind
Advisory for today keeping it in the plains adjacent to the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. The amount of clouds will have to
be closely monitored today and if mostly clear skies develop
across the area then the Wind Advisory may need to be extended
farther east.

These winds are being caused by zonal flow along the southern
periphery of a slow moving low over the upper midwest. A shortwave
trough dropping down the backside of the low will push a cold
front into the area tomorrow evening cooling temps a few degrees,
however the main feature to watch will be an upper low developing
to our west by the end of the week. All models show this low
developing over the western U.S. and dropping south into
northwestern Mexico though there are differences in the strength
and movement of the low as it moves east into Texas. The ECMWF is
faster and weaker with the low which would give us less rainfall.
GFS is stronger with the low which would give us more
precipitation, unless the low digs too far south and gets caught
under a Pacific Northwest ridge. For now will continue the strong
chance PoPs for the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  45  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       62  39  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71  45  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  64  43  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  35  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          59  36  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          58  33  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           62  44  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         62  43  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           63  40  61  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 10 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM CST /10 PM MST/ this evening for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM CST
     /5 PM MST/ this evening for Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

12/10
913
FXUS64 KMAF 280507
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1107 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail overnight as mid and high clouds
translate eastward over the forecast area.  Westerly winds will
increase at all area terminals after 28/13Z to at least 15 to 20kt
sustained.  Winds will increase to 20kt to 30kt sustained by 28/18Z
with gusts near 40kt possible during Monday afternoon. Blowing
dust could also reduce visibility to MVFR levels, but will wait
and see whether we are dry enough for this to occur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to get rid of the Wind Advisory and to change the
cloud cover for tonight into tomorrow.

DISCUSSION...

Winds have decreased below wind advisory conditions across the
plains so the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. Winds may
decrease briefly across the mountains overnight but are expected
to become stronger tomorrow so the High Wind Warning will continue
for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. The cloud cover is greater
in coverage than was forecast across southeast New Mexico so have
adjusted the cloud grids.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016/

WV imagery shows a busy pattern across/approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A fetch of subtropical
moisture from the Pacific is overspreading mid/hi cloud across the
region, and playing hob w/mixing. This will likely render current
wind warnings/advisories a moot point, but we`ll let them ride out
in lieu of possible BINOVC later this afternoon.

A trough that moved thru the Four Corners this morning is now
ejecting into the upper Midwest, and all attention now turns to a
secondary trough over srn NV.  This feature will approach the area
overnight, and pass thru the CWA 12-15Z Monday.  A weak dryline
extends from about the Davis Mtns NE to Seminole, w/dewpoints
increasing eastward to the upper 50s along the eastern fringes of
the CWA.  Mesoanalysis shows only weak instability over the eastern
zones, w/a cap in place, and mid-lvl LRs under 7C/km.  However, 0-
6km deep lyr shear looks impressive, and if large-scale ascent ahead
of the trough can bust the cap, a few cells could develop over the
eastern zones later this afternoon/tonight.  We`ll opt not to
mention severe attm.

The trough will move thru the region early Monday, but it still
looks to be a windy day across the NW.  In addition, the incoming
trough should shunt most of this mid/hi cloud ESE, to allow for
better afternoon mixing.  Although the speed max rounding the base
of the trough will exit West Texas by 18Z, models keep the winds up
behind it during the afternoon.  forecast soundings mix to 750mb or
better by 18Z, where 30-40kt WNW winds are anticipated.  Current
wind warnings extend thru 00Z Tuesday, and still look to be in play.
Current wind advisories end at 00Z Monday.  However, a new advisory
will likely be needed Monday.  To avoid sowing confusing w/the
current one still in effect, we`ll let either the swing or mid shift
issue it after the current one expires.

Pac front tonight should cool temps to near-normal Monday, and below
normal Tuesday.  Tuesday night, a 3rd upper trough swings thru the
region, dropping a dry cold front into the area Wednesday for even
cooler temperatures Wednesday afternoon.  Wednesday/Thursday, a 4th
trough will drop out of the PacNW and is forecast to cut off over
the US/Mexico border near the CA/AZ border by 00Z Saturday.  This is
potentially shaping up to be a big event for next weekend, w/precip
developing in large-scale ascent over the region beginning Friday,
and continuing thru the weekend.  Forecast soundings suggest even a
little frozen precip will be possible in the Guadalupes and nrn Lea
County Saturday night.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  63  44  59 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  63  38  57 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         51  71  44  68 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  63  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  51  35  45 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          40  59  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  59  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  62  43  58 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  62  43  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  64  39  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
430
FXUS64 KMAF 280035
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to get rid of the Wind Advisory and to change the
cloud cover for tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds have decreased below wind advisory conditions across the
plains so the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. Winds may
decrease briefly across the mountains overnight but are expected
to become stronger tomorrow so the High Wind Warning will continue
for the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. The cloud cover is greater
in coverage than was forecast across southeast New Mexico so have
adjusted the cloud grids.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016/

WV imagery shows a busy pattern across/approaching West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. A fetch of subtropical
moisture from the Pacific is overspreading mid/hi cloud across the
region, and playing hob w/mixing. This will likely render current
wind warnings/advisories a moot point, but we`ll let them ride out
in lieu of possible BINOVC later this afternoon.

A trough that moved thru the Four Corners this morning is now
ejecting into the upper Midwest, and all attention now turns to a
secondary trough over srn NV.  This feature will approach the area
overnight, and pass thru the CWA 12-15Z Monday.  A weak dryline
extends from about the Davis Mtns NE to Seminole, w/dewpoints
increasing eastward to the upper 50s along the eastern fringes of
the CWA.  Mesoanalysis shows only weak instability over the eastern
zones, w/a cap in place, and mid-lvl LRs under 7C/km.  However, 0-
6km deep lyr shear looks impressive, and if large-scale ascent ahead
of the trough can bust the cap, a few cells could develop over the
eastern zones later this afternoon/tonight.  We`ll opt not to
mention severe attm.

The trough will move thru the region early Monday, but it still
looks to be a windy day across the NW.  In addition, the incoming
trough should shunt most of this mid/hi cloud ESE, to allow for
better afternoon mixing.  Although the speed max rounding the base
of the trough will exit West Texas by 18Z, models keep the winds up
behind it during the afternoon.  forecast soundings mix to 750mb or
better by 18Z, where 30-40kt WNW winds are anticipated.  Current
wind warnings extend thru 00Z Tuesday, and still look to be in play.
Current wind advisories end at 00Z Monday.  However, a new advisory
will likely be needed Monday.  To avoid sowing confusing w/the
current one still in effect, we`ll let either the swing or mid shift
issue it after the current one expires.

Pac front tonight should cool temps to near-normal Monday, and below
normal Tuesday.  Tuesday night, a 3rd upper trough swings thru the
region, dropping a dry cold front into the area Wednesday for even
cooler temperatures Wednesday afternoon.  Wednesday/Thursday, a 4th
trough will drop out of the PacNW and is forecast to cut off over
the US/Mexico border near the CA/AZ border by 00Z Saturday.  This is
potentially shaping up to be a big event for next weekend, w/precip
developing in large-scale ascent over the region beginning Friday,
and continuing thru the weekend.  Forecast soundings suggest even a
little frozen precip will be possible in the Guadalupes and nrn Lea
County Saturday night.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  63  44  59 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       42  63  38  57 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         51  71  44  68 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  48  63  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  51  35  45 /  10  10   0  10
Hobbs                          40  59  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  59  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  62  43  58 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  62  43  59 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           44  64  39  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99

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