Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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207
FXUS64 KMAF 132138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 PM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A cutoff low over southern Arizona, New Mexico and northern Mexico
will eject east/northeastward tonight and provide another round of
precipitation over southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.  The main
axis of precipitation will be over west central Texas, but the
extreme eastern Permian Basin could get in on some of the showers
and thunderstorms that will develop due to isentropic upglide and
resulting modest elevated instability axis where mid level lapse
rates near 7 C/km will reside.  Temperature profiles and
surface temperatures indicate precipitation will remain all liquid
in these areas.  Expect lighter precipitation will affect the
rest of the forecast area tonight and Tuesday morning, some of which
could be a mix of rain and snow, or all snow, in the Guadalupe
Mountains and higher elevations of the Davis Mountains where surface
temperatures will be the coldest.  Will forego issuance of a Winter
Weather Advisory for either mountain ranges though as only an inch
or less of snow accumulation is expected.

The cutoff low will move east of the region Tuesday with
precipitation coming to end.  Northerly winds behind the departing
low will reinforce cold air over the region, and along with
persistent cloud cover keep high temperatures Tuesday afternoon
10 to 15 degrees below normal.  Skies will clear Tuesday night
and aid low temperatures dropping near normal Wednesday morning.
Although sunshine will return Wednesday, high temperatures will
still be a few degrees below normal most areas.  Weak upper
troughiness will linger over the region Thursday and Friday,
followed by shortwave ridging aloft Saturday.  This portends a dry
forecast with temperatures rising above normal Thursday, and 10 to
15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.  The next upper trough
is progged to affect the area Sunday.  Will keep a chance of
thunderstorms in the forecast then, some of which could be severe
considering current model offerings.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  45  34  61 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       36  50  29  59 /  70  10   0   0
Dryden                         42  62  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  37  49  34  59 /  50  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  44  29  51 /  50  20   0   0
Hobbs                          34  41  28  54 /  80  20   0   0
Marfa                          32  52  23  53 /  50   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  46  32  58 /  80  20   0   0
Odessa                         36  46  33  59 /  80  20   0   0
Wink                           38  50  29  60 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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