Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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614
FXUS64 KMAF 292310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light northeast winds becoming southeasterly through the
TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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