Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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802
FXUS64 KMAF 291920
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Broken to overcast skies have kept convection at bay so far, but
satellite and radar are showing developing showers in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where clouds are more scattered,
beginning a round of thunderstorms across much of the area.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will produce CAPE values in excess
of 4000 J/kg and combined with 0-6km shear of 35-50kts will ensure
some storms will be severe. The HRRR and local WRF indicate the
storm type will begin as discrete supercells possibly forming a
multicell line somewhere in the Permian Basin before pushing east
overnight. Large hail and even isolated tornadoes will be
possible so this situation will need to be closely monitored over
the next several hours especially given this is a holiday weekend.

Conditions set up much the same tomorrow with abundant low level
moisture and afternoon heating leading to a great deal of
instability. The one thing lacking will be an upper trigger so
convection tomorrow may not be quite as widespread as expected
today, though the severe threat will certainly exist. Storms are
expected to move fast enough that the flash flood threat will be
isolated to a few cells exhibiting deviant motion; however, a
linear complex today could produce enough rainfall to increase a
more widespread flash flood threat Wednesday.

Southwest upper flow will continue through Thursday thanks to a
very slow moving low currently over southern California. This will
continue the thunderstorm threat into Tuesday before a cold front
arrives Wednesday providing a more stable boundary layer and a
transition to weaker convection. The low will move east of the
area Thursday night and northerly flow will end rain chances for
the end of the week and into the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  85  64  86 /  60  50  40  40
Carlsbad                       63  93  63  94 /  20  20  20  10
Dryden                         69  88  68  89 /  50  40  40  30
Fort Stockton                  67  90  67  91 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  84  63  86 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                          61  89  61  88 /  30  40  20  20
Marfa                          56  85  55  85 /  20  30  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           66  89  67  90 /  50  50  30  30
Odessa                         67  89  67  90 /  50  50  30  30
Wink                           67  93  66  94 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/10

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