Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

148
FXUS64 KMAF 270502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light southwest winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

A nice and quiet weekend is expected with a dry northwesterly flow
aloft regime in place. Much above normal temperatures are expected
for most areas due to the formation of surface lee troughing with
downslope flow and mostly clear skies.

An upper level trough digging across the the plains will push
a cold front south into the forecast area either Sunday or
Monday. Obviously this front could impact the high temperature
forecast for Sunday, so later shifts will need to monitor.
Either way temperatures will only get bumped back to near
normal values by Monday. A weak and quick southern stream Pacific
storm system looks in the offing late Monday resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Behind this system zonal flow is forecast with much above normal
temperatures developing again next Tuesday through Thursday as
another surface lee trough forms with downslope and low
level thermal ridging anticipated.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
806
FXUS64 KMAF 262316
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

A nice and quiet weekend is expected with a dry northwesterly flow
aloft regime in place. Much above normal temperatures are expected
for most areas due to the formation of surface lee troughing with
downslope flow and mostly clear skies.

An upper level trough digging across the the plains will push
a cold front south into the forecast area either Sunday or
Monday. Obviously this front could impact the high temperature
forecast for Sunday, so later shifts will need to monitor.
Either way temperatures will only get bumped back to near
normal values by Monday. A weak and quick southern stream Pacific
storm system looks in the offing late Monday resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Behind this system zonal flow is forecast with much above normal
temperatures developing again next Tuesday through Thursday as
another surface lee trough forms with downslope and low
level thermal ridging anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  81  48  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  81  48  91  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  81  43  89  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  79  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  83  56  90  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  73  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   39  78  45  86  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  75  33  83  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  80  47  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  44  81  51  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    39  84  46  90  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
481
FXUS64 KMAF 261923
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A nice and quiet weekend is expected with a dry northwesterly flow
aloft regime in place. Much above normal temperatures are expected
for most areas due to the formation of surface lee troughing with
downslope flow and mostly clear skies.

An upper level trough digging across the the plains will push
a cold front south into the forecast area either Sunday or
Monday. Obviously this front could impact the high temperature
forecast for Sunday, so later shifts will need to monitor.
Either way temperatures will only get bumped back to near
normal values by Monday. A weak and quick southern stream Pacific
storm system looks in the offing late Monday resulting in a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Behind this system zonal flow is forecast with much above normal
temperatures developing again next Tuesday through Thursday as
another surface lee trough forms with downslope and low
level thermal ridging anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  81  48  88  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  81  48  91  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                39  81  43  89  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  43  79  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  83  56  90  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          44  73  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   39  78  45  86  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   28  75  33  83  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  80  47  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  44  81  51  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    39  84  46  90  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
194
FXUS64 KMAF 261713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours...after MVFR cigs sctter
out at KFST.  Northerly flow will back to the SW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.

Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
226
FXUS64 KMAF 261514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1014 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.UPDATE...

Current ob at KGDP shows winds just under criteria, w/latest
models indicating pressure gradients relaxing into this afternoon.
We`ll do a quick update to remove the High Wind Warning from the
grids, and freshen up other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
North winds will continue subsiding today, becoming light and
shifting from the southwest after 00Z. Near MVFR CIGs are
developing across the area this morning but should only persist
for a couple of hours before dissipating or moving southeast.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.

Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  79  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              66  43  81  49  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                65  38  81  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  44  79  48  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  43  80  51  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  43  73  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  39  78  45  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   61  31  73  37  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  79  47  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  64  43  79  49  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    65  38  81  45  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
432
FXUS64 KMAF 261116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
North winds will continue subsiding today, becoming light and
shifting from the southwest after 00Z. Near MVFR CIGs are
developing across the area this morning but should only persist
for a couple of hours before dissipating or moving southeast.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.

Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
662
FXUS64 KMAF 260819
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
319 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front has pushed south through the region fairly quickly
tonight with gusty north winds persisting areawide. Although winds
are fairly strong, most locations are below Wind Advisory
criteria and we don`t expect winds to come back up. As a result,
went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory. High winds through
Guadalupe Pass will continue through mid morning and a High Wind
Warning remains for this location. Winds will diminish through the
morning hours as the surface pressure gradient relaxes and a
surface ridge settles into the area. High temperatures will be
about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday with readings in the 60s
most places.

Dry NW flow aloft will develop today as an upper trough moves east
of the region. At the surface, lee troughing will develop by Friday
resulting in the return of downsloping SW winds at the surface. This
will allow temperatures to rebound to the 70s and 80s Friday and
Saturday. Upper ridging and warmer 850mb temps will shift eastward
Sunday and highs will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s across the
region. The warm/dry pattern looks to be interrupted early next week
with the passage of a weak cold front that will knock temps back
into the 70s and low 80s for Monday. As of now, not expecting any
precip with the initial arrival of the cold front however an
eastward moving upper disturbance may provide some support for
thunderstorm development Monday night and Tuesday. Still quite a bit
of disagreement amongst the forecast models regarding the exact
strength and track of this system so slight chance PoPs look good
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  79  47  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              66  43  81  49  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                65  38  81  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  44  79  48  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  43  80  51  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  43  73  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   63  39  78  45  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   61  31  73  37  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  41  79  47  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  64  43  79  49  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    65  38  81  45  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
721
FXUS64 KMAF 260531
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will bring gusty north winds to the TAF sites the
next 6 hours. BLDU will restrict visibilities mainly at MAF and
possibly INK through 08Z before winds diminish some and VIS
improves. MVFR CIGs showing on ASOS observations are not real, but
blowing dust being mistakenly reported as CIG so it has not been
included in any TAFs. Winds will be much lighter after 12Z
becoming southerly late in the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent.  West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin.  A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible.  A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas.  Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon.  A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall.  Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
441
FXUS64 KMAF 252346
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
646 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A
cold front is currently moving south through eastern New Mexico
and the Texas Panhandle, expected to reach KHOB and KCNM by
02-03Z, KMAF and KINK by around 04Z, KPEQ by 05Z, and finally KFST
by 06Z. Winds will shift to the north and increase, with gusts
over 30kt possible. The gusts will gradually diminish through
Thursday morning, though breezy conditions could continue into the
afternoon, particularly for KMAF and KFST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent.  West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin.  A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible.  A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas.  Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon.  A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall.  Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Terrell.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
561
FXUS64 KMAF 251953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Strong cold front currently across the Texas Panhandle will
quickly plunge south overnight and be well south of the region
in Mexico by sunrise Thursday morning. Consensus progged surface
pressure gradient suggest that the stronger mav guidance winds
look more reasonable tonight. Will issue a Wind Advisory for
southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight except the
Presidio Valley. Will continue the High Wind Warning for the
Guadalupe Pass of west Texas tonight through mid Thursday morning
and increase wind speeds by 10 mph. In addition Low level
convergence along the advancing front with some forcing from the
upper trough could spark some showers and thunderstorms across the
extreme eastern Permian Basin in the deeper moisture. Due to the
expected winds will include areas of blowing dust across all of
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool Thursday
high temperatures will climb to much above normal values again by
Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope flow
and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected at this time
next Monday night and Tuesday. Near to above normal temperatures
are expected early next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Very warm this afternoon as temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
This has combined with dry conditions over some parts of the area to
produce rh values below 15 percent.  West winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range have produced near critical conditions across SE NM... the
Trans Pecos... and Western Permian Basin.  A check of area RAWS
sites show 20ft winds near but below 20 mph range but localized Red
Flag conditions are possible.  A Fire Danger Statement remains in
effect for these areas.  Wind speeds should begin to decrease
by late afternoon.  A strong cold front will blow through the region
tonight with a gusty north wind with 20ft winds exceeded 20 mph but
rh values will be increasing as moisture increases and temperatures
fall.  Cooler temperatures and higher rh expected tomorrow.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  63  42  79  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              43  63  42  79  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  66  34  80  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  67  43  80  /  20   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           45  63  45  80  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          38  58  43  73  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   39  63  38  78  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   39  59  28  73  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    42  63  40  79  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  42  64  42  79  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    44  65  39  81  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM MDT Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...WIND ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...
     Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Thursday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Terrell.

     HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

72/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
379
FXUS64 KMAF 251735
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
West wind has begun to pick up as the wind aloft mixes down. CNM
has highest wind so far but this should spread east to other TAF
sites. Wind should decrease late afternoon/early evening before a
strong cold front blows into the area tonight with a very gusty
north wind... gusts to 30kts or more possible as is blowing dust.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.

The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.

Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.

Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
609
FXUS64 KMAF 251116
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
616 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hour is brief gusty winds
behind a strong cold front tonight. Otherwise...VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Light southerly winds this morning will
quickly increase from the west to 15-18kt sustained, gusting to
25-27kt by the afternoon. Winds will diminish for a couple of hours
this evening before a strong cold front arrives around 26/03Z at
CNM, HOB, INK and MAF then FST and PEQ by 26/04Z. Expect north winds
near 20-25kt sustained and gusts near 30-35kt. Occasionally higher
wind speeds will be possible. Low visibilities due to BLDU is
definitely possible but will hold off on mention in the TAF for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.

The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.

Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.

Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
736
FXUS64 KMAF 250922
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
422 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite shows an upper level trough over northern
Wyoming. This trough will move into the Central Plains today
increasing westerly winds and pushing drier air across most of the
area. This dry air and clear skies will send highs today well
above normal reaching the mid 80s for many locations.

The upper trough will move east tonight sending a cold front south
arriving in the Permian Basin around sunset. Winds behind the
front will shift from the northeast and become very windy for a
short period before quickly diminishing early Thursday morning.
Sustained wind speeds may exceed 30 mph briefly tonight but the
duration is not expected to be long enough to warrant the issuance
of an advisory at this time. Winds at Guadalupe Pass will become
strong and the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a warning.

Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler and a very pleasant day
as winds continue to diminish. An upper level ridge over the
western U.S. will move east over the weekend and dampen, bringing
a return of westerly mid and upper level flow. This will cause
temperatures to warm back up above normal with Saturday and Sunday
providing good BBQ weather.

Models continue to show an upper level low approaching Texas and
New Mexico early next week. The GFS and ECMWF continue to handle
the location of this feature differently though the ECMWF seems to
be trending more towards the GFS solution of a southerly track
across southern California and along the U.S./Mexico border. The
Canadian GEM also agrees with this southerly track. The main
difference between these models is the strength of the low. The
GFS is strongest and thus shows better rain chances than the other
models. Will continue the slight chance PoPs during this time
period and will wait for better agreement before making any
significant PoP changes.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase from the west today as a surface low deepens
just NE of the CWA. In addition, above normal temps and very dry
conditions will result in afternoon minimum relative humidities
near 10-15 percent most areas. With 20 foot winds approaching or
exceeding critical thresholds across most locations, elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns can be expected. Greatest
concern will be across the Guadalupe Mountains, where low end Red
Flag conditions will be possible for 3-4 hours at the most.
Confidence is not high enough to go with a Red Flag Warning so
will handle the Guadalupes as well as southeast NM and much of
west TX with a Fire Danger Statement. Fire weather concerns will
diminish this evening as relative humidities increase above
critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  41  64  41  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              87  43  65  42  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                82  43  64  39  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  88  51  68  44  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  45  64  43  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  38  59  42  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  39  64  39  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   77  39  60  33  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  42  65  41  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  42  65  42  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    85  44  66  40  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Thursday
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27/10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
388
FXUS64 KMAF 250507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Light southerly winds overnight will
increase from the west to 15-18kt sustained and gusting to 25-30kt
during the afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive around 26/03Z
at CNM, HOB, INK and MAF then FST and PEQ just beyond this TAF
period. Behind the front, expect north winds near 20-25kt sustained
and gusts near 30-35kt. Low visibilities due to BLDU is definitely
possible but will hold off on mention in the TAF for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High Wind Watch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.

FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX.  Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties.  The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range.  This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
118
FXUS64 KMAF 242320
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
WSW winds will remain aob 12KT tonight, but will increase on
Wednesday afternoon, gusting to 20-30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High Wind Watch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.

FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX.  Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties.  The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range.  This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
386
FXUS64 KMAF 241940
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
240 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft will continue through tomorrow resulting in
continued much above normal temperatures. Dryline will surge east
from the eastern slopes of the mountains to the Concho Valley and
Big Country by late tomorrow afternoon. Behind the dryline breezy
westerly winds will develop in areas with very windy conditions
expected in the Guadalupe Mountains. Low level thermal ridging and
downslope flow will allow temperatures to climb to much above
normal Wednesday afternoon. Large upper level trough moving across
the mid section of the country will drop a cold front south into
the forecast area Wednesday night. Low level convergence along the
front with some forcing from the upper trough could spark isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the extreme eastern Permian Basin
in the deeper moisture. Strong surface pressure gradient behind
the front will produce very windy conditions with high winds
possible through Guadalupe Pass. Will issue a High Wind Watch for
that location Wednesday night through mid Thursday morning. In
addition a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the plains
of southeast New Mexico and or west Texas. Have also added patchy
blowing dust for areas mainly north of the Pecos River.

Dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop behind the
upper trough Thursday through the weekend. After a cool
Thursday high temperatures will climb to above normal again
by Friday as more surface lee troughing develops with downslope
flow and mostly clear skies expected.

A Pacific storm system looks in the offing early next week
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected
at this time next Monday and Tuesday. Above normal temperatures
are also expected to continue.

FIRE WEATHER...

Unseasonably warm temperatures expected again Wednesday will result
in minimum rh values of 15 percent or less across SE NM and most of
W TX.  Much of this area received beneficial rain the past week
lowering the fire danger... but not much fell across Eddy and
Culberson counties.  The wind will be out of the west tomorrow
and 20ft wind speeds are expected to be higher with some locations
reaching the 15 to 20 mph range.  This will result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions... especially for the
Guadalupe Mountains... Delaware Mountains... and surrounding plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  49  83  42  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  56  86  43  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                83  46  83  44  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  90  54  88  50  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  54  85  44  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  50  74  39  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   80  47  80  39  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   76  41  78  38  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  50  85  44  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  84  52  84  44  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    85  47  85  46  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

72/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
000
FXUS64 KMAF 241728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mostly clear skies. W to NW wind this afternoon will come
around to the S/SW by this evening. A few TAF sites near a surface
trough may be a little gusty this afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current upper air analysis shows a relatively broad jet stream
over the southern United States. This zonal flow will continue today
and tomorrow keeping temperatures above normal. The flow will
amplify late Wednesday with the development of a west coast
ridge/central U.S. trough couplet. This will send a cold front
through the area early Thursday bringing temperatures back down
below normal, even if only briefly. There may be an initial shot
of windy conditions immediately behind the front which could
approach advisory levels, but models are showing these winds will
quickly diminish and thus do not anticipate the need for an
advisory at this time. West winds ahead of the cold front
will push dry air across much of the area and cause the
development of a weak dryline in the far eastern Permian Basin.
The greatest convergence and moisture will be along and east of
the intersection of the dryline and cold front which is where the
highest rain chances were placed Wednesday night.

The upper ridge will broaden as it slowly moves east leaving west
Texas in northwesterly upper flow and a slow warming trend through
the weekend. Early next week could get interesting again, not so
much because of a weak front in the area on Monday, but mostly due
to another upper low approaching from the west. Both the ECMWF and
GFS show this feature moving into Arizona on Monday though the
trajectory of the ECMWF has it dropping southeast out of northern
California while the GFS has a more easterly movement from
southern California and northern Mexico. The GFS solution would be
wetter as it brings better lift across southern New Mexico and
West Texas so PoPs will largely depend on which model solution
proves correct. Currently there is too much uncertainty to go
higher than slight chance PoPs.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
006
FXUS64 KMAF 241102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Otherwise...light SW winds will briefly
veer to the NW this morning then quickly recover from the south by
this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current upper air analysis shows a relatively broad jet stream
over the southern United States. This zonal flow will continue today
and tomorrow keeping temperatures above normal. The flow will
amplify late Wednesday with the development of a west coast
ridge/central U.S. trough couplet. This will send a cold front
through the area early Thursday bringing temperatures back down
below normal, even if only briefly. There may be an initial shot
of windy conditions immediately behind the front which could
approach advisory levels, but models are showing these winds will
quickly diminish and thus do not anticipate the need for an
advisory at this time. West winds ahead of the cold front
will push dry air across much of the area and cause the
development of a weak dryline in the far eastern Permian Basin.
The greatest convergence and moisture will be along and east of
the intersection of the dryline and cold front which is where the
highest rain chances were placed Wednesday night.

The upper ridge will broaden as it slowly moves east leaving west
Texas in northwesterly upper flow and a slow warming trend through
the weekend. Early next week could get interesting again, not so
much because of a weak front in the area on Monday, but mostly due
to another upper low approaching from the west. Both the ECMWF and
GFS show this feature moving into Arizona on Monday though the
trajectory of the ECMWF has it dropping southeast out of northern
California while the GFS has a more easterly movement from
southern California and northern Mexico. The GFS solution would be
wetter as it brings better lift across southern New Mexico and
West Texas so PoPs will largely depend on which model solution
proves correct. Currently there is too much uncertainty to go
higher than slight chance PoPs.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
562
FXUS64 KMAF 240908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Current upper air analysis shows a relatively broad jet stream
over the southern United States. This zonal flow will continue today
and tomorrow keeping temperatures above normal. The flow will
amplify late Wednesday with the development of a west coast
ridge/central U.S. trough couplet. This will send a cold front
through the area early Thursday bringing temperatures back down
below normal, even if only briefly. There may be an initial shot
of windy conditions immediately behind the front which could
approach advisory levels, but models are showing these winds will
quickly diminish and thus do not anticipate the need for an
advisory at this time. West winds ahead of the cold front
will push dry air across much of the area and cause the
development of a weak dryline in the far eastern Permian Basin.
The greatest convergence and moisture will be along and east of
the intersection of the dryline and cold front which is where the
highest rain chances were placed Wednesday night.

The upper ridge will broaden as it slowly moves east leaving west
Texas in northwesterly upper flow and a slow warming trend through
the weekend. Early next week could get interesting again, not so
much because of a weak front in the area on Monday, but mostly due
to another upper low approaching from the west. Both the ECMWF and
GFS show this feature moving into Arizona on Monday though the
trajectory of the ECMWF has it dropping southeast out of northern
California while the GFS has a more easterly movement from
southern California and northern Mexico. The GFS solution would be
wetter as it brings better lift across southern New Mexico and
West Texas so PoPs will largely depend on which model solution
proves correct. Currently there is too much uncertainty to go
higher than slight chance PoPs.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  50  83  42  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  54  86  43  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                83  48  82  44  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  90  56  87  50  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  54  85  44  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  50  74  39  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  48  80  39  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   76  43  77  38  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  52  85  44  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  84  52  84  44  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  49  85  46  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
366
FXUS64 KMAF 240435
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Otherwise...light SW winds will briefly
veer to the NW Tuesday morning then return southerly by the evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will have a flat ridge over the area the next several days bringing
mild wx to the region with mostly sunny days and clear nights
through midweek.  This will give way to a mid level trough swinging
down across the Rockies as an upper ridge builds across the West
Coast.

Unrestricted sunshine and warm temperatures aloft pushing surface
temps into the 80s this afternoon.  These unusually warm readings
expected again Tuesday and Wednesday... could see readings into the
90s along the Rio Grande.  Lows in the 40s and 50s.  A cold front
late Wednesday/early Thursday will bring much cooler air to the
region.  Behind the front expect highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday
with lows in the 30s and 40s that night.  Front looks to be
accompanied by a tight pressure gradient so expect a windy fropa.
Still a ways out but this will create the potential for a high wind
event at GDP.  By the weekend readings warm back to around
normal.

Not much in the way of rain chances this week... may have some
around the edges of the area Wednesday night as a shortwave trough
swings down across NM.  Otherwise it looks dry this week.

FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger Statement was issued for Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Warm... dry and breezy conditions will continue across
SE NM on Tuesday and Wednesday and could result in a continuation
of near critical fire wx conditions. Minimum rh of 15 percent or
less will be possible across SE NM... the upper Trans Pecos... and
Western Permian Basin each day. Weak 20ft winds look to be the
limiting factor on Tuesday but these may be stronger on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
720
FXUS64 KMAF 232250
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 146 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will have a flat ridge over the area the next several days bringing
mild wx to the region with mostly sunny days and clear nights
through midweek.  This will give way to a mid level trough swinging
down across the Rockies as an upper ridge builds across the West
Coast.

Unrestricted sunshine and warm temperatures aloft pushing surface
temps into the 80s this afternoon.  These unusually warm readings
expected again Tuesday and Wednesday... could see readings into the
90s along the Rio Grande.  Lows in the 40s and 50s.  A cold front
late Wednesday/early Thursday will bring much cooler air to the
region.  Behind the front expect highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday
with lows in the 30s and 40s that night.  Front looks to be
accompanied by a tight pressure gradient so expect a windy fropa.
Still a ways out but this will create the potential for a high wind
event at GDP.  By the weekend readings warm back to around
normal.

Not much in the way of rain chances this week... may have some
around the edges of the area Wednesday night as a shortwave trough
swings down across NM.  Otherwise it looks dry this week.

FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger Statement was issued for Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Warm... dry and breezy conditions will continue across
SE NM on Tuesday and Wednesday and could result in a continuation
of near critical fire wx conditions. Minimum rh of 15 percent or
less will be possible across SE NM... the upper Trans Pecos... and
Western Permian Basin each day. Weak 20ft winds look to be the
limiting factor on Tuesday but these may be stronger on Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
068
FXUS64 KMAF 231846
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
146 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Will have a flat ridge over the area the next several days bringing
mild wx to the region with mostly sunny days and clear nights
through midweek.  This will give way to a mid level trough swinging
down across the Rockies as an upper ridge builds across the West
Coast.

Unrestricted sunshine and warm temperatures aloft pushing surface
temps into the 80s this afternoon.  These unusually warm readings
expected again Tuesday and Wednesday... could see readings into the
90s along the Rio Grande.  Lows in the 40s and 50s.  A cold front
late Wednesday/early Thursday will bring much cooler air to the
region.  Behind the front expect highs in the 50s and 60s Thursday
with lows in the 30s and 40s that night.  Front looks to be
accompanied by a tight pressure gradient so expect a windy fropa.
Still a ways out but this will create the potential for a high wind
event at GDP.  By the weekend readings warm back to around
normal.

Not much in the way of rain chances this week... may have some
around the edges of the area Wednesday night as a shortwave trough
swings down across NM.  Otherwise it looks dry this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Danger Statement was issued for Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon. Warm... dry and breezy conditions will continue across
SE NM on Tuesday and Wednesday and could result in a continuation
of near critical fire wx conditions. Minimum rh of 15 percent or
less will be possible across SE NM... the upper Trans Pecos... and
Western Permian Basin each day. Weak 20ft winds look to be the
limiting factor on Tuesday but these may be stronger on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  84  48  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  87  54  89  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                47  84  45  87  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  56  90  57  90  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  87  55  89  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  51  76  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   47  81  45  84  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  79  36  80  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  85  50  87  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  84  51  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    48  88  46  89  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
326
FXUS64 KMAF 231715
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1215 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals.
Southwest winds will generally increase to 10 to 20 mph and gusty
by mid afternoon. By sunset winds should generally diminish to
less than 10 mph with light winds continuing overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Westerly winds
will increase this afternoon to around 15 kts before decreasing
around sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Despite recent rainfall and a clear sky this morning, it appears low
level winds will provide enough mixing to prevent fog from
developing aggressively.  Therefore, have removed it from the
forecast.  Temperatures will warm well above normal today and stay
that way through Wednesday as a low amplitude ua ridge moves east of
the region, and is replaced by nearly zonal flow aloft.  A low level
thermal ridge, such as it is in early Spring, will remain over the
region and along with downslope winds result in readings 10 to 15
degrees above normal each afternoon.  We will approach record high
territory, but think we`ll stay below records by around 5 degrees or
so.

An ua trough will translate eastward over the U.S. Plains Wednesday,
and amplify over the eastern ConUS through late week.  A cold front
will push south through the forecast area Wednesday night as a
result.  There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos as the front passes
through Wednesday night, but this may be subject to change if the
mentioned ua trough amplifies further west.  For now, will go with
the more consolidated ua trough and drier forecast through the rest
of the week.

Temperatures will cool below normal Thursday behind the front, and
stay slightly below Friday.  However, readings will warm back above
normal next weekend as the region will be caught between an east
coast ua trough and west coast ua ridge.  Temperatures during this
time will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal while the forecast remains
dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase this week as the area dries out
from the recent wet pattern. Winds will increase from the west this
afternoon as a sfc trough develops over the Panhandles. In addition,
rh`s will drop to 10-15 percent. Near critical conditions will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM Plains. Will issue
a Fire Danger Statement for now with an upgrade to RFW possible,
especially in the Guadalupe Mountains. We will see a bit of a break
Tuesday with weaker winds. By Wednesday, winds will increase once
again across the Guadalupe Mountains with rh`s dropping to near 15
percent during the afternoon. A cold front will arrive Wednesday
night bringing moisture back to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  50  85  48  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              89  57  88  54  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                86  49  84  46  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  88  57  89  57  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  55  85  53  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  52  77  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  47  81  45  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   78  39  79  37  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  54  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  55  85  51  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  48  88  46  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
202
FXUS64 KMAF 231108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Westerly winds
will increase this afternoon to around 15 kts before decreasing
around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Despite recent rainfall and a clear sky this morning, it appears low
level winds will provide enough mixing to prevent fog from
developing aggressively.  Therefore, have removed it from the
forecast.  Temperatures will warm well above normal today and stay
that way through Wednesday as a low amplitude ua ridge moves east of
the region, and is replaced by nearly zonal flow aloft.  A low level
thermal ridge, such as it is in early Spring, will remain over the
region and along with downslope winds result in readings 10 to 15
degrees above normal each afternoon.  We will approach record high
territory, but think we`ll stay below records by around 5 degrees or
so.

An ua trough will translate eastward over the U.S. Plains Wednesday,
and amplify over the eastern ConUS through late week.  A cold front
will push south through the forecast area Wednesday night as a
result.  There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos as the front passes
through Wednesday night, but this may be subject to change if the
mentioned ua trough amplifies further west.  For now, will go with
the more consolidated ua trough and drier forecast through the rest
of the week.

Temperatures will cool below normal Thursday behind the front, and
stay slightly below Friday.  However, readings will warm back above
normal next weekend as the region will be caught between an east
coast ua trough and west coast ua ridge.  Temperatures during this
time will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal while the forecast remains
dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase this week as the area dries out
from the recent wet pattern. Winds will increase from the west this
afternoon as a sfc trough develops over the Panhandles. In addition,
rh`s will drop to 10-15 percent. Near critical conditions will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM Plains. Will issue
a Fire Danger Statement for now with an upgrade to RFW possible,
especially in the Guadalupe Mountains. We will see a bit of a break
Tuesday with weaker winds. By Wednesday, winds will increase once
again across the Guadalupe Mountains with rh`s dropping to near 15
percent during the afternoon. A cold front will arrive Wednesday
night bringing moisture back to the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
618
FXUS64 KMAF 230851
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
351 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Despite recent rainfall and a clear sky this morning, it appears low
level winds will provide enough mixing to prevent fog from
developing aggressively.  Therefore, have removed it from the
forecast.  Temperatures will warm well above normal today and stay
that way through Wednesday as a low amplitude ua ridge moves east of
the region, and is replaced by nearly zonal flow aloft.  A low level
thermal ridge, such as it is in early Spring, will remain over the
region and along with downslope winds result in readings 10 to 15
degrees above normal each afternoon.  We will approach record high
territory, but think we`ll stay below records by around 5 degrees or
so.

An ua trough will translate eastward over the U.S. Plains Wednesday,
and amplify over the eastern ConUS through late week.  A cold front
will push south through the forecast area Wednesday night as a
result.  There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos as the front passes
through Wednesday night, but this may be subject to change if the
mentioned ua trough amplifies further west.  For now, will go with
the more consolidated ua trough and drier forecast through the rest
of the week.

Temperatures will cool below normal Thursday behind the front, and
stay slightly below Friday.  However, readings will warm back above
normal next weekend as the region will be caught between an east
coast ua trough and west coast ua ridge.  Temperatures during this
time will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal while the forecast remains
dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase this week as the area dries out
from the recent wet pattern. Winds will increase from the west this
afternoon as a sfc trough develops over the Panhandles. In addition,
rh`s will drop to 10-15 percent. Near critical conditions will be
possible across the Guadalupe Mountains and SE NM Plains. Will issue
a Fire Danger Statement for now with an upgrade to RFW possible,
especially in the Guadalupe Mountains. We will see a bit of a break
Tuesday with weaker winds. By Wednesday, winds will increase once
again across the Guadalupe Mountains with rh`s dropping to near 15
percent during the afternoon. A cold front will arrive Wednesday
night bringing moisture back to the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  50  85  48  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              89  57  88  54  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                86  49  84  46  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  88  57  89  57  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  55  85  53  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  52  77  51  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  47  81  45  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   78  39  79  37  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  54  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  55  85  51  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  48  88  46  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
945
FXUS64 KMAF 230452
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some light fog is
possible at the terminal around sunrise, but will quickly burn off
once the sun comes up. Winds will also increase to around 15 kts
from the southwest during the afternoon.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
632
FXUS64 KMAF 222156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

All terminals should remain VFR next 24 hours unless fog develops
near sunrise. Abundant heating/insolation and a little wind today
have made good headway in beginning to dry out soils from
yesterday`s rains. Currently, favorable fog development looks to
be in the Pecos Rvr Valley, and KPEQ may see a few hours of light
development Monday morning, according to buffer soundings.
However, we`ll keep things VFR for now. Otherwise, winds will veer
to SW by Monday afternoon, and become gusty.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
As the upper low that brought rain to the area moves off to the
east... high pressure aloft will build into the region.  This will
provide warm and dry wx for the region the next few days.  The next
upper trough will swing across the Southern Rockies on Thursday
and into the area early Friday.

Sunny skies stretch across the area this afternoon as temperatures
climb rapidly into the 70s.  Temps will fall tonight into the 40s and
50s.  With wet ground from recent rain and clear skies overnight could
see patchy fog Monday morning mainly east and along the Pecos River
Valley.  The combination of an upper ridge and W/SW surface wind
will push temps up into the 80s Monday.  These warm readings will
continue Tuesday and Wednesday.  Guidance looks a little too warm
after rain so have gone slightly under.  A cold front moves through
late Wednesday so should be cooler Thursday... but conditions warm
quickly Friday through the weekend.  Fropa may be pretty windy...
will have to monitor possible high wind event through GDP.

Forecast looks dry through most of the week... long range models try
to skirt the area mid week with a few showers or storms but not
expecting much.  Will have to watch next trough to see if becomes a
rain producer or not.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
889
FXUS64 KMAF 221850
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
As the upper low that brought rain to the area moves off to the
east... high pressure aloft will build into the region.  This will
provide warm and dry wx for the region the next few days.  The next
upper trough will swing across the Southern Rockies on Thursday
and into the area early Friday.

Sunny skies stretch across the area this afternoon as temperatures
climb rapidly into the 70s.  Temps will fall tonight into the 40s and
50s.  With wet ground from recent rain and clear skies overnight could
see patchy fog Monday morning mainly east and along the Pecos River
Valley.  The combination of an upper ridge and W/SW surface wind
will push temps up into the 80s Monday.  These warm readings will
continue Tuesday and Wednesday.  Guidance looks a little too warm
after rain so have gone slightly under.  A cold front moves through
late Wednesday so should be cooler Thursday... but conditions warm
quickly Friday through the weekend.  Fropa may be pretty windy...
will have to monitor possible high wind event through GDP.

Forecast looks dry through most of the week... long range models try
to skirt the area mid week with a few showers or storms but not
expecting much.  Will have to watch next trough to see if becomes a
rain producer or not.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 49  84  50  83  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              52  87  55  86  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  86  47  84  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  86  56  87  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  86  55  86  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  52  77  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   45  83  47  81  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   37  79  39  80  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    50  85  52  84  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  50  84  53  83  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    48  87  48  86  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
702
FXUS64 KMAF 221724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear
skies. Winds will be westerly this afternoon at 10 to 15 mph and
gusty. By sunset winds should diminish to less than 10 mph. There
is some chance that some patchy fog could form toward sunrise
Monday but confidence was not high enough at this time to mention.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Low clouds have slowly moved east with fog developing on the edge
of the cloud deck. Low vsbys due to fog will continue until the
sun burns it off later this morning. A few terminals may lower to
a mile or less, but in general vsbys will be around 3-5 miles.
Westerly winds will kick in around 22/16Z with VFR conditions
returning this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The ua trough responsible for widespread rainfall is already east of
the region and will be replaced by a low amplitude ua ridge.
Needless to say, but the rain chances are done with for this
system.  Areas of fog have developed under a decreasing cloud cover
and weak surface pressure regime, and considering how moist the
ground is, will have to monitor for the issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory.  Temperatures will begin to warm up today, but will be
tempered by evaporation of ground moisture.  As clear skies and a
light wind regime occurs again tonight, at least patchy fog will
form, especially over the Permian Basin where surface dewpoints will
be higher.  Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday as nearly
zonal flow aloft will result in westerly winds increasing and
spreading further eastward across the area.  There may still be
enough ground moisture to temper highs, but think this will become
less both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.  Therefore, have kept
forecast high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal in most
locations.

On Tuesday/Wednesday, an ua trough will amplify over the central
U.S. Plains and Midwest.  Height falls from this ua trough will back
low level winds and bring low level moisture westward into the
region.  A dryline will form on Tuesday and sharpen somewhat
Wednesday.  However, the mentioned ua trough will not be deep enough
to impart much lift to our area, and the dryline will mix east of
our area both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Therefore, will leave rain
chances out of the forecast.  Temperatures will stay above normal
Wednesday since the next cold front to affect the area won`t arrive
until Wednesday night.  Temperatures will drop a few degrees below
normal Thursday, while readings Friday will depend on how amplified
the next ua trough turns out.  For now, will go between the warmer
and cooler solutions, and keep the forecast mainly dry.  This also
appears to be feasible for the rest of the extended as a deep ua
trough will envelope the eastern ConUS while an ua ridge expands
over the western ConUS, leaving us high and dry in between.  There
is an outside chance a cutoff low could pinch off from the eastern
ConUS ua trough Thursday and loiter over the southwestern ConUS or
northern Mexico.  Will wait and see whether this feature
materializes before changing the forecast to accommodate any rain
chances in the extended.

CLIMATE...

With the good winter precipitation and the rain over the last
several days, this is one of the wettest starts to a year on record.
Let`s hope it keeps up!

Highest Precipitation Amounts through March 21st

Rank    Value (inches)  Year
  1         5.01        1939
  2         4.39        1932
  3         4.34        2015
  4         4.30        1949
  5         4.28        1970

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  82  50  81  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  84  54  83  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                45  85  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  53  85  56  85  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  54  83  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  51  74  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   45  82  47  78  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   37  78  40  76  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  83  51  82  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  82  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  85  47  82  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
608
FXUS64 KMAF 221106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Low clouds have slowly moved east with fog developing on the edge
of the cloud deck. Low vsbys due to fog will continue until the
sun burns it off later this morning. A few terminals may lower to
a mile or less, but in general vsbys will be around 3-5 miles.
Westerly winds will kick in around 22/16Z with VFR conditions
returning this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The ua trough responsible for widespread rainfall is already east of
the region and will be replaced by a low amplitude ua ridge.
Needless to say, but the rain chances are done with for this
system.  Areas of fog have developed under a decreasing cloud cover
and weak surface pressure regime, and considering how moist the
ground is, will have to monitor for the issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory.  Temperatures will begin to warm up today, but will be
tempered by evaporation of ground moisture.  As clear skies and a
light wind regime occurs again tonight, at least patchy fog will
form, especially over the Permian Basin where surface dewpoints will
be higher.  Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday as nearly
zonal flow aloft will result in westerly winds increasing and
spreading further eastward across the area.  There may still be
enough ground moisture to temper highs, but think this will become
less both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.  Therefore, have kept
forecast high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal in most
locations.

On Tuesday/Wednesday, an ua trough will amplify over the central
U.S. Plains and Midwest.  Height falls from this ua trough will back
low level winds and bring low level moisture westward into the
region.  A dryline will form on Tuesday and sharpen somewhat
Wednesday.  However, the mentioned ua trough will not be deep enough
to impart much lift to our area, and the dryline will mix east of
our area both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Therefore, will leave rain
chances out of the forecast.  Temperatures will stay above normal
Wednesday since the next cold front to affect the area won`t arrive
until Wednesday night.  Temperatures will drop a few degrees below
normal Thursday, while readings Friday will depend on how amplified
the next ua trough turns out.  For now, will go between the warmer
and cooler solutions, and keep the forecast mainly dry.  This also
appears to be feasible for the rest of the extended as a deep ua
trough will envelope the eastern ConUS while an ua ridge expands
over the western ConUS, leaving us high and dry in between.  There
is an outside chance a cutoff low could pinch off from the eastern
ConUS ua trough Thursday and loiter over the southwestern ConUS or
northern Mexico.  Will wait and see whether this feature
materializes before changing the forecast to accommodate any rain
chances in the extended.

CLIMATE...

With the good winter precipitation and the rain over the last
several days, this is one of the wettest starts to a year on record.
Let`s hope it keeps up!

Highest Precipitation Amounts through March 21st

Rank    Value (inches)  Year
  1         5.01        1939
  2         4.39        1932
  3         4.34        2015
  4         4.30        1949
  5         4.28        1970

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
582
FXUS64 KMAF 220824
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The ua trough responsible for widespread rainfall is already east f
the region and will be replaced by a low amplitude ua ridge.
Needless to say, but the rain chances are done with for this
system.  Areas of fog have developed under a decreasing cloud cover
and weak surface pressure regime, and considering how moist the
ground is, will have to monitor for the issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory.  Temperatures will begin to warm up today, but will be
tempered by evaporation of ground moisture.  As clear skies and a
light wind regime occurs again tonight, at least patchy fog will
form, especially over the Permian Basin where surface dewpoints will
be higher.  Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday as nearly
zonal flow aloft will result in westerly winds increasing and
spreading further eastward across the area.  There may still be
enough ground moisture to temper highs, but think this will become
less both Monday and Tuesday afternoon.  Therefore, have kept
forecast high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal in most
locations.

On Tuesday/Wednesday, an ua trough will amplify over the central
U.S. Plains and Midwest.  Height falls from this ua trough will back
low level winds and bring low level moisture westward into the
region.  A dryline will form on Tuesday and sharpen somewhat
Wednesday.  However, the mentioned ua trough will not be deep enough
to impart much lift to our area, and the dryline will mix east of
our area both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Therefore, will leave rain
chances out of the forecast.  Temperatures will stay above normal
Wednesday since the next cold front to affect the area won`t arrive
until Wednesday night.  Temperatures will drop a few degrees below
normal Thursday, while readings Friday will depend on how amplified
the next ua trough turns out.  For now, will go between the warmer
and cooler solutions, and keep the forecast mainly dry.  This also
appears to be feasible for the rest of the extended as a deep ua
trough will envelope the eastern ConUS while an ua ridge expands
over the western ConUS, leaving us high and dry in between.  There
is an outside chance a cutoff low could pinch off from the eastern
ConUS ua trough Thursday and loiter over the southwestern ConUS or
northern Mexico.  Will wait and see whether this feature
materializes before changing the forecast to accommodate any rain
chances in the extended.

&&

.CLIMATE...

With the good winter precipitation and the rain over the last
several days, this is one of the wettest starts to a year on record.
Let`s hope it keeps up!

Highest Precipitation Amounts through March 21st

Rank    Value (inches)  Year
  1         5.01        1939
  2         4.39        1932
  3         4.34        2015
  4         4.30        1949
  5         4.28        1970

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  82  50  81  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  84  54  83  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                45  85  48  81  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  53  85  56  85  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  54  83  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  76  51  74  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   45  82  47  78  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   37  78  40  76  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    49  83  51  82  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  82  52  82  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    45  85  47  82  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
775
FXUS64 KMAF 220500
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Low clouds are clearing a bit quicker than previously forecast
with the back edge along a Carlsbad to Pecos the Sanderson line
and moving east. Expect as the clouds clear, fog will settle in
quickly so have included tempos for this into the mid morning
hours. Low vsbys will clear late morning as westerly winds kick
in. More fog possible again Sunday night.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
373
FXUS64 KMAF 220006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
706 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.AVIATION...

Precipitation is expected to wind down over the next several hours
across the area, though KFST will see lingering -RA through about
02Z, and KHOB stands a chance to see some -SHRA as it drifts
northward from about 02-05Z. While improvements to MVFR and even
VFR conditions are possible after precipitation ends this evening,
conditions are expected to deteriorate overnight once again due to
ample boundary layer moisture allowing low ceilings and fog to
settle in across the area. KMAF and KINK will likely see a return
to IFR by 06Z, with LIFR possible around daybreak. Other locations
could see a return to low-end MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibility
late tonight/early Sunday as well. However, by mid to late
morning, a fairly quick improvement to VFR conditions is expected,
as ceilings lift and scatter out with clear skies expected through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show convection on the wane, w/WV imagery placing the
core of the upper trough near KFST. MPE totals for the past 12 hrs
show highest precip amts south of KFST, where a line of convection
is moving east. Saturated soils and FFMP suggest isolated areas
may see minor flooding over the next few hours...especially NE
zones as the upper trough continues moving NE...but not enough to
extend the watch. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch will be allowed
to bite the dust at 00Z. We`ll freshen up the grids to update
other parameters as necessary, based on current obs and latest
forecast data. Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low was located over Northern Mexico this morning lifting
northeast across the area this afternoon.  Behind this low will
have weak ridging aloft resulting in mild wx through most of the
week.  However by Thursday another trough will move down the West
Coast and may develop into a cut off low on Friday.  When this low
finally starts to move east it could bring additional rain to the
area.

Today widespread light to moderate rain has moved up across the
area.  Ground reports of a 1/3 to a 1/2 inch of rain are common with
local amounts higher.  The heaviest rain again today has been over
Pecos Co but the main area of rain is lifting NE into parts of the
region that have not had much rain the past few days.  A flash flood
watch remains in effect until 00z for the southern 2/3rd of the
region... plan on letting it continue until it expires.  Can expect
wrap around precip to move east across the area tonight.  The
Northeast Permian Basin will have best chance of additional rainfall
tonight and models develop the most qpf in that area.  Will have
highest pops NE with chances decreasing to the west.  Next few days
should be dry.

Temps should stay elevated tonight due to the moist airmass and
abundant cloud cover.  Highs will be warmer on Sunday and back into
the 70s.  Monday will be unusually warm as a W/SW wind kicks in as a
surface low sets up over the Panhandle and a trough extends down
across the area.  Guidance warms area locations into the 80s and
even lower 90s Monday... will go several degrees under guidance due
to recent rain but will be a warm day.  Tuesday and Wednesday will
be warm also but a front is expected to move through late Wednesday
so should be cooler on Thursday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
995
FXUS64 KMAF 212350
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show convection on the wane, w/WV imagery placing the
core of the upper trough near KFST. MPE totals for the past 12 hrs
show highest precip amts south of KFST, where a line of convection
is moving east. Saturated soils and FFMP suggest isolated areas
may see minor flooding over the next few hours...especially NE
zones as the upper trough continues moving NE...but not enough to
extend the watch. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch will be allowed
to bite the dust at 00Z. We`ll freshen up the grids to update
other parameters as necessary, based on current obs and latest
forecast data. Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low was located over Northern Mexico this morning lifting
northeast across the area this afternoon.  Behind this low will
have weak ridging aloft resulting in mild wx through most of the
week.  However by Thursday another trough will move down the West
Coast and may develop into a cut off low on Friday.  When this low
finally starts to move east it could bring additional rain to the
area.

Today widespread light to moderate rain has moved up across the
area.  Ground reports of a 1/3 to a 1/2 inch of rain are common with
local amounts higher.  The heaviest rain again today has been over
Pecos Co but the main area of rain is lifting NE into parts of the
region that have not had much rain the past few days.  A flash flood
watch remains in effect until 00z for the southern 2/3rd of the
region... plan on letting it continue until it expires.  Can expect
wrap around precip to move east across the area tonight.  The
Northeast Permian Basin will have best chance of additional rainfall
tonight and models develop the most qpf in that area.  Will have
highest pops NE with chances decreasing to the west.  Next few days
should be dry.

Temps should stay elevated tonight due to the moist airmass and
abundant cloud cover.  Highs will be warmer on Sunday and back into
the 70s.  Monday will be unusually warm as a W/SW wind kicks in as a
surface low sets up over the Panhandle and a trough extends down
across the area.  Guidance warms area locations into the 80s and
even lower 90s Monday... will go several degrees under guidance due
to recent rain but will be a warm day.  Tuesday and Wednesday will
be warm also but a front is expected to move through late Wednesday
so should be cooler on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  75  47  82  /  30  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              47  78  51  84  /  50  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                42  80  45  85  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  80  53  85  /  40   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  79  52  85  /  40  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  73  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  77  45  82  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  75  37  78  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  76  49  83  /  40  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  46  76  48  82  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    44  79  45  85  /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
564
FXUS64 KMAF 211853
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper low was located over Northern Mexico this morning lifting
northeast across the area this afternoon.  Behind this low will
have weak ridging aloft resulting in mild wx through most of the
week.  However by Thursday another trough will move down the West
Coast and may develop into a cut off low on Friday.  When this low
finally starts to move east it could bring additional rain to the
area.

Today widespread light to moderate rain has moved up across the
area.  Ground reports of a 1/3 to a 1/2 inch of rain are common with
local amounts higher.  The heaviest rain again today has been over
Pecos Co but the main area of rain is lifting NE into parts of the
region that have not had much rain the past few days.  A flash flood
watch remains in effect until 00z for the southern 2/3rd of the
region... plan on letting it continue until it expires.  Can expect
wrap around precip to move east across the area tonight.  The
Northeast Permian Basin will have best chance of additional rainfall
tonight and models develop the most qpf in that area.  Will have
highest pops NE with chances decreasing to the west.  Next few days
should be dry.

Temps should stay elevated tonight due to the moist airmass and
abundant cloud cover.  Highs will be warmer on Sunday and back into
the 70s.  Monday will be unusually warm as a W/SW wind kicks in as a
surface low sets up over the Panhandle and a trough extends down
across the area.  Guidance warms area locations into the 80s and
even lower 90s Monday... will go several degrees under guidance due
to recent rain but will be a warm day.  Tuesday and Wednesday will
be warm also but a front is expected to move through late Wednesday
so should be cooler on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  75  47  82  /  30  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              47  78  51  84  /  50  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                42  80  45  85  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  51  80  53  85  /  40   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  79  52  85  /  40  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  73  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   42  77  45  82  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   38  75  37  78  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  76  49  83  /  40  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  46  76  48  82  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    44  79  45  85  /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

12/72

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
664
FXUS64 KMAF 211737
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level storm system across extreme west Texas will move
east across the Permian Basin tonight. Mainly MVFR conditions
with occasional IFR conditions in rain showers and fog are
expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals
through early to mid evening. MVFR to IFR conditions will continue
after 06z tonight through mid Sunday morning in low clouds and
fog. VFR conditions in clear skies are expected by mid to late
Sunday morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.  IFR CEILINGS COULD ALSO FORM, BUT HOW
WIDESPREAD THESE BECOME REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.  THINK
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING
OVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KMAF.  CLOUD COVER TONIGHT MAY
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD/DENSE.  BUT IF SKIES CLEAR, FOG
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER VERY MOIST
GROUND.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/

.Heavy rain and potential flooding still on track today for
southern half of the area...

The upper level low spinning to our west is finally beginning to
lift northeast. Strong lift and rich moisture continues to
overspread the region as evidenced by the widespread showers
occurring across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. An upward
trend in precipitation is expected later this morning as a train
of disturbances move north across the area. WV imagery depicts
the next, main disturbance moving across N. Mexico toward W TX.
Heavy rain and flooding will remain the main concern today as PWAT
values near record highs for March. An upper level jet passing
just to our east will also place the area in decent diffluence
aloft. The heaviest rain is expected to fall across the Big Bend,
Lower Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin today. Much of this area
received near 1 inch of rain yesterday and widespread additional
rainfall totals of around an inch with locally 2 inches will be
possible. Current Flash Flood Watch looks good so no changes are
planned there.

The upper trough opens up and quickly exits the area tonight with
weak upper ridging building in Sunday and Monday. This along with
westerly winds should help dry things out. Temperatures are also
expected to rebound to above normal values early next week.
Guidance looks a little too warm for southern portions of the
region given all the recent rains so will undercut temps there
early in the week. Fire weather may become a concern Monday
afternoon if winds are strong enough along a sfc trough that will
stretch across the area. Warm temperatures will continue Tuesday
and Wednesday while winds relax a bit ahead of another cold front
due to arrive Wednesday night. Temperatures will cool to near
seasonal norms with minimal precip chances late in the week.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  45  76  46  /  80  30  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  47  79  49  /  90  40  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  43  79  46  /  70  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  50  80  53  / 100  40   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  47  76  50  / 100  40  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  45  72  51  /  70  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   57  42  77  44  /  60  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  39  73  39  / 100  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  46  75  47  / 100  40  10   0
ODESSA TX                  54  46  75  47  / 100  30  10   0
WINK TX                    56  43  76  45  / 100  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
505
FXUS64 KMAF 211044
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
544 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST
TERMINALS THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.  IFR CEILINGS COULD ALSO FORM, BUT HOW
WIDESPREAD THESE BECOME REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.  THINK
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING
OVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KMAF.  CLOUD COVER TONIGHT MAY
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD/DENSE.  BUT IF SKIES CLEAR, FOG
SHOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A LIGHT WIND REGIME OVER VERY MOIST
GROUND.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015/

..Heavy rain and potential flooding still on track today for
southern half of the area...

The upper level low spinning to our west is finally beginning to
lift northeast. Strong lift and rich moisture continues to
overspread the region as evidenced by the widespread showers
occurring across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. An upward
trend in precipitation is expected later this morning as a train
of disturbances move north across the area. WV imagery depicts
the next, main disturbance moving across N. Mexico toward W TX.
Heavy rain and flooding will remain the main concern today as PWAT
values near record highs for March. An upper level jet passing
just to our east will also place the area in decent diffluence
aloft. The heaviest rain is expected to fall across the Big Bend,
Lower Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin today. Much of this area
received near 1 inch of rain yesterday and widespread additional
rainfall totals of around an inch with locally 2 inches will be
possible. Current Flash Flood Watch looks good so no changes are
planned there.

The upper trough opens up and quickly exits the area tonight with
weak upper ridging building in Sunday and Monday. This along with
westerly winds should help dry things out. Temperatures are also
expected to rebound to above normal values early next week.
Guidance looks a little too warm for southern portions of the
region given all the recent rains so will undercut temps there
early in the week. Fire weather may become a concern Monday
afternoon if winds are strong enough along a sfc trough that will
stretch across the area. Warm temperatures will continue Tuesday
and Wednesday while winds relax a bit ahead of another cold front
due to arrive Wednesday night. Temperatures will cool to near
seasonal norms with minimal precip chances late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  45  76  46  /  80  30  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  47  79  49  /  90  40  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  43  79  46  /  70  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  50  80  53  / 100  40   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  47  76  50  / 100  40  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  45  72  51  /  70  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   57  42  77  44  /  60  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  39  73  39  / 100  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  46  75  47  / 100  40  10   0
ODESSA TX                  54  46  75  47  / 100  30  10   0
WINK TX                    56  43  76  45  / 100  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Midland...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
375
FXUS64 KMAF 210918
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...Heavy rain and potential flooding still on track today for
southern half of the area...

The upper level low spinning to our west is finally beginning to
lift northeast. Strong lift and rich moisture continues to
overspread the region as evidenced by the widespread showers
occurring across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. An upward
trend in precipitation is expected later this morning as a train
of disturbances move north across the area. WV imagery depicts
the next, main disturbance moving across N. Mexico toward W TX.
Heavy rain and flooding will remain the main concern today as PWAT
values near record highs for March. An upper level jet passing
just to our east will also place the area in decent diffluence
aloft. The heaviest rain is expected to fall across the Big Bend,
Lower Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin today. Much of this area
received near 1 inch of rain yesterday and widespread additional
rainfall totals of around an inch with locally 2 inches will be
possible. Current Flash Flood Watch looks good so no changes are
planned there.

The upper trough opens up and quickly exits the area tonight with
weak upper ridging building in Sunday and Monday. This along with
westerly winds should help dry things out. Temperatures are also
expected to rebound to above normal values early next week.
Guidance looks a little too warm for southern portions of the
region given all the recent rains so will undercut temps there
early in the week. Fire weather may become a concern Monday
afternoon if winds are strong enough along a sfc trough that will
stretch across the area. Warm temperatures will continue Tuesday
and Wednesday while winds relax a bit ahead of another cold front
due to arrive Wednesday night. Temperatures will cool to near
seasonal norms with minimal precip chances late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  45  76  46  /  80  30  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  47  79  49  /  90  40  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                57  43  79  46  /  70  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  50  80  53  / 100  40   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  47  76  50  / 100  40  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  45  72  51  /  70  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   57  42  77  44  /  60  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   55  39  73  39  / 100  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  46  75  47  / 100  40  10   0
ODESSA TX                  54  46  75  47  / 100  30  10   0
WINK TX                    56  43  76  45  / 100  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Midland...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
289
FXUS64 KMAF 210512
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR and IFR ceilings will spread northeastward across west Texas
overnight, with these lower ceilings perhaps grazing KCNM and KHOB.
In addition, MVFR visibility in fog will accompany the lower
ceilings.  Rain should be on the increase late tonight, again from
southwest to northeast across the area.  Southeast New Mexico
could miss out on the rain and lower ceilings altogether so will
be most optimistic at those sites.  Moderate to heavy rainfall
could lower visibility further, but will only carry mention of
TSRA at KFST, for now.  Low ceilings could last through much of
the day, especially over the west Texas terminals.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Midland...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
033
FXUS64 KMAF 210004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light showers continue to move northeast across the area this
evening, with VFR conditions across SE NM TAF sites and generally
MVFR ceilings across W TX TAF sites expected to continue for at
least the first several hours of the forecast period. Models
continue to indicate widespread rainfall expanding across the area
from south to north tonight, with light to moderate rain expected
at KFST by around 06Z, KPEQ, KINK, and KMAF by around 08Z, and
KCNM and KHOB closer to 12-14Z. Ceilings will deteriorate to low-
end MVFR or IFR by Saturday morning for all TAF sites, with LIFR
possible across W TX TAF sites. While some thunder is certainly
possible, have not included mention of -TSRA in TAFS at this time
due to uncertainties in timing/coverage. And, while periods of
improved conditions (MVFR, VFR) may occur between rounds of
precipitation, feel that both ceilings and visibility Saturday
will primarily remain in the LIFR/IFR range. The only exceptions
could be KHOB and KINK where low-end MVFR may be possible
Saturday, though that may be a bit too optimistic.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another cut off low over Northern Mexico will lift NE tonight and Saturday
bringing the potential of heavy rain to the area.  After that a flat
ridge builds across the region with mild wx expected through much of
next week.  However late next week there is the potential for another
upper trough to move down the west coast and develop into a cut off
low over Mexico.

A cold front moved though the area in the overnight hours and has
pushed well into Mexico today.  Morning showers and thunderstorms
brought moderate to heavy rain to parts of the Trans Pecos and
central Permian Basin.  Some locations received over a half inch or
more of rain.  This will increase the potential for flash flooding
tonight as additional rain falls.  Currently have scattered showers
and storms ongoing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  WV
shows a strong fetch of Pacific moisture streaming northward and
morning sounding shows a high PW so potential for heavy rainfall.

Model qpf develops significant amounts of rain tonight and
tomorrow.  These models area in fairly good agreement to the
potential for heavy rain but not in agreement as to location.
Variations should be due to how the different models handle the
track of individual disturbances with the upper low.  Have increased
pops and added mention of heavy rain to the forecast.  Expect
heaviest rain tonight across the southern CWA with highest pops
across Marfa Plateau... Big Bend... up through the Davis Mountains.
On Saturday have likely or better pops across most of the region
with the highest over the Trans Pecos.  Will expand the FFA
northward across the Upper Trans Pecos and Central Permian Basin and
move up start time to 00z.  Have kept precip tonight as a
combination of showers and thunderstorms but by Saturday rainshowers
will become more prevalent with only a few isolated thunderstorms
expected.  Depending how rain develops overnight this watch may be
expanded even farther northward for Saturday.  Rain chances will
decrease and shift east Saturday night.  Conditions begin to dry up
on Sunday with pops returning to the forecast by Thursday.

Rain and clouds will moderate the temps through tonight through Saturday
night.  By Sunday above normal temperatures return to the area with
temperatures reaching the 80s early next week.  Another cold front
midweek knocks highs back into the 60s for the end of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Ector...Glasscock...Loving...Marfa Plateau...
     Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
491
FXUS64 KMAF 201912
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
212 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another cut off low over Northern Mexico will lift NE tonight and Saturday
bringing the potential of heavy rain to the area.  After that a flat
ridge builds across the region with mild wx expected through much of
next week.  However late next week there is the potential for another
upper trough to move down the west coast and develop into a cut off
low over Mexico.

A cold front moved though the area in the overnight hours and has
pushed well into Mexico today.  Morning showers and thunderstorms
brought moderate to heavy rain to parts of the Trans Pecos and
central Permian Basin.  Some locations received over a half inch or
more of rain.  This will increase the potential for flash flooding
tonight as additional rain falls.  Currently have scattered showers
and storms ongoing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin.  WV
shows a strong fetch of Pacific moisture streaming northward and
morning sounding shows a high PW so potential for heavy rainfall.

Model qpf develops significant amounts of rain tonight and
tomorrow.  These models area in fairly good agreement to the
potential for heavy rain but not in agreement as to location.
Variations should be due to how the different models handle the
track of individual disturbances with the upper low.  Have increased
pops and added mention of heavy rain to the forecast.  Expect
heaviest rain tonight across the southern CWA with highest pops
across Marfa Plateau... Big Bend... up through the Davis Mountains.
On Saturday have likely or better pops across most of the region
with the highest over the Trans Pecos.  Will expand the FFA
northward across the Upper Trans Pecos and Central Permian Basin and
move up start time to 00z.  Have kept precip tonight as a
combination of showers and thunderstorms but by Saturday rainshowers
will become more prevalent with only a few isolated thunderstorms
expected.  Depending how rain develops overnight this watch may be
expanded even farther northward for Saturday.  Rain chances will
decrease and shift east Saturday night.  Conditions begin to dry up
on Sunday with pops returning to the forecast by Thursday.

Rain and clouds will moderate the temps through tonight through Saturday
night.  By Sunday above normal temperatures return to the area with
temperatures reaching the 80s early next week.  Another cold front
midweek knocks highs back into the 60s for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  55  43  75  /  30  80  40  10
BIG SPRING TX              47  56  46  75  /  30  70  50  10
CARLSBAD NM                48  56  43  78  /  40  70  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  54  60  51  78  /  60  80  40  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           48  57  46  76  /  60  90  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  53  43  71  /  50  70  20  10
HOBBS NM                   45  55  42  75  /  20  70  30  10
MARFA TX                   45  54  39  71  /  70  80  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  55  45  75  /  40  80  40  10
ODESSA TX                  45  55  44  75  /  40  80  40  10
WINK TX                    48  54  44  78  /  50  90  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Ector...Glasscock...Loving...
     Marfa Plateau...Midland...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Terrell...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

72/27

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
038
FXUS64 KMAF 201745 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Most of the convection is moving northeast of the TAF
sites. A few light showers have developed in the moist airmass
south and east of a Midland to Pecos line. Due to the
isolated/scattered nature of these showers have opted not to
include them in the TAF`s since they are expected to dissipate
later today. Expect bkn/ovc skies with MVFR/VFR cigs through the
early evening hours. IFR cigs are possible later this evening at
KPEQ and KFST as the next shortwave approaches from the southwest.
Showers/thunderstorms will increase from the southwest after 06Z
and will spread northeast by Sat morning.

Strobin

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as
we head into tonight and Saturday...

A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to
plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of
the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen
well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later
this morning as the wave exits the region.

The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east
with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead
of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by
Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly
along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best
moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible
within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.

The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region
tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly
as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this
time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in
the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the
day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a
good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an
already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling
most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the
Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will
focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is
expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the
watch north.

Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick
clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected
Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in
the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold
front arrives late in the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Terrell.


&&

$$

33

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
349
FXUS64 KMAF 201736
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX



1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015







.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.







&&







.AVIATION...Most of the convection is moving northeast of the TAF



sites. A few light showers have developed in the moist airmass



south and east of a Midland to Pecos line. Due to the



isolated/scattered nature of these showers have opted not to



include them in the TAF`s since they are expected to dissipate



later today. Expect bkn/ovc skies with MVFR/VFR cigs through the



early evening hours. IFR cigs are possible later this evening at



KPEQ and KFST as the next shortwave approaches from the southwest.



Showers/thunderstorms will increase from the southwest after 06Z



and will spread northeast by Sat morning.







Strobin







&&







PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/







DISCUSSION...







.Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as



we head into tonight and Saturday...







A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to



plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of



the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms



continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen



well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later



this morning as the wave exits the region.







The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east



with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead



of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several



rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by



Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly



along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best



moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible



within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.







The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region



tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly



as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this



time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in



the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the



day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a



good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an



already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling



most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the



Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will



focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is



expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the



watch north.







Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick



clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected



Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in



the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold



front arrives late in the week.







&&







.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



NM...NONE.



TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR



     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache



     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...



     Terrell.











&&







$$







33







^C
690
FXUS64 KMAF 201736
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX



1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015







.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.







&&







.AVIATION...Most of the convection is moving northeast of the TAF



sites. A few light showers have developed in the moist airmass



south and east of a Midland to Pecos line. Due to the



isolated/scattered nature of these showers have opted not to



include them in the TAF`s since they are expected to dissipate



later today. Expect bkn/ovc skies with MVFR/VFR cigs through the



early evening hours. IFR cigs are possible later this evening at



KPEQ and KFST as the next shortwave approaches from the southwest.



Showers/thunderstorms will increase from the southwest after 06Z



and will spread northeast by Sat morning.







Strobin







&&







PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/







DISCUSSION...







.Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as



we head into tonight and Saturday...







A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to



plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of



the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms



continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen



well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later



this morning as the wave exits the region.







The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east



with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead



of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several



rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by



Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly



along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best



moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible



within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.







The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region



tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly



as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this



time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in



the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the



day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a



good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an



already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling



most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the



Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will



focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is



expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the



watch north.







Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick



clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected



Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in



the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold



front arrives late in the week.







&&







.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...



NM...NONE.



TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR



     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache



     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...



     Terrell.











&&







$$







33







^C
514
FXUS64 KMAF 201657
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Most of the convection is moving northeast of the TAF
sites. A few light showers have developed in the moist airmass
south and east of a Midland to Pecos line. Due to the
isolated/scattered nature of these showers have opted not to
include them in the TAF`s since they are expected to dissipate
later today. Expect bkn/ovc skies with MVFR/VFR cigs through the
early evening hours. IFR cigs are possible later this evening at
KPEQ and KFST as the next shortwave approaches from the southwest.
Showers/thunderstorms will increase from the southwest after 06Z
and will spread northeast by Sat morning.

Strobin

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as
we head into tonight and Saturday...

A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to
plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of
the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen
well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later
this morning as the wave exits the region.

The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east
with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead
of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by
Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly
along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best
moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible
within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.

The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region
tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly
as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this
time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in
the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the
day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a
good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an
already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling
most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the
Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will
focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is
expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the
watch north.

Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick
clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected
Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in
the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold
front arrives late in the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Terrell.


&&

$$

33

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
209
FXUS64 KMAF 201114
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
614 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc analysis shows the cold front extending from about KGDP-KOZA,
colliding w/a wide swath of convection movg NE. IFR/LIFR
cigs/visibilities will not improve much in the way of this
convection, and may deteriorate in heavier downpours over the next
few hours. Conditions may improve to few hrs of MVFR this
afternoon/evening, but MVFR to LIFR conditions will redevelop
toward the end of the forecast period as the upper trough begins
movg east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

..Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as
we head into tonight and Saturday...

A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to
plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of
the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen
well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later
this morning as the wave exits the region.

The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east
with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead
of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by
Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly
along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best
moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible
within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.

The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region
tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly
as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this
time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in
the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the
day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a
good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an
already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling
most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the
Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will
focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is
expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the
watch north.

Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick
clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected
Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in
the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold
front arrives late in the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Terrell.


&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
690
FXUS64 KMAF 200927
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...Confidence in widespread heavy rain and flooding has increased as
we head into tonight and Saturday...

A strong cold front currently along the I-10 corridor continues to
plow south across the region. Temperatures were in the 60`s ahead of
the front cooling to the 40`s behind it. Showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop across the area in response to a shortwave seen
well in WV imagery. Most of this activity will begin to weaken later
this morning as the wave exits the region.

The well advertised upper through to our west has begun to move east
with a large plume of Pacific moisture streaming north well ahead
of it. Disturbances in this flow will likely lead to several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms before the trough passes by
Saturday night. The focus for precipitation today will be mainly
along and south of I-20 closer to where the cold front and best
moisture is. Some heavy rain and localized flooding is possible
within stronger storms mainly in the Lower Trans Pecos.

The upper trough will finally begin to lift across the region
tonight and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase significantly
as stronger lift arrives and PWAT values near record highs for this
time of year (1.25 inches). To add to this, the area will also be in
the left exit region of a 100 kt upper level jet streak most of the
day Saturday. Given all the above, heavy rainfall and flooding is a
good bet for at least the southern half of the area. Given an
already saturated ground with recent rains and rain likely falling
most of the day today, will issue a Flash Flood Watch to include the
Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and Lower Trans Pecos. The watch will
focus on tonight and Saturday when the heaviest rainfall is
expected. It is possible that later shifts will need to expand the
watch north.

Have gone with coolest guidance today and Saturday given thick
clouds and precipitation. A drying and warming trend is expected
Sunday with the passage of the upper trough. Temperatures peak in
the 80s by the middle of next week before another strong cold
front arrives late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  44  60  44  /  30  20  60  40
BIG SPRING TX              61  47  60  48  /  40  30  60  60
CARLSBAD NM                59  48  61  44  /  20  30  70  30
DRYDEN TX                  65  55  62  52  /  80  60  80  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           53  45  57  47  /  60  60  90  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  42  57  44  /  30  40  70  30
HOBBS NM                   60  43  61  43  /  20  20  60  30
MARFA TX                   56  45  55  38  /  60  70  80  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  46  59  46  /  40  30  80  50
ODESSA TX                  57  45  59  45  /  40  30  80  50
WINK TX                    58  48  58  45  /  40  40  80  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from late tonight through Saturday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Big Bend Area...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Terrell.


&&

$$

44/29

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland
135
FXUS64 KMAF 200543
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Latest sfc analysis shows fropa has already occurred at KHOB and
KCNM, and is just north of KMAF. IFR cigs and a shower or two will
be possible behind the front, w/most terminals improving to MVFR/VFR
conditions after 12Z. Winds will slowly veer during the day
Friday, but buffer soundings hint at MVFR/IFR redevelopment after
00Z Saturday at KINK, KMAF, and KFST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015/

UPDATE...
We`ve sent an update to reflect slightly faster fropa.

DISCUSSION...
02Z obs indicate front has passed Tatum and is right along the
north CWFA boundary with 3hr/MSLP rises of 3.5 mb to n of the
front along with a a few post-frontal SHRA/TSRA developing too. As
such we adjusted wind forecast slightly. South of the front winds
are of little consequence generally around 5kts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

A tricky aviation forecast this period, as showers and
thunderstorms continue near KFST and KPEQ. Expect SHRA/TSRA to
gradually diminish/move NE over the next few hours, with SHRA
possible at KINK and KMAF until 03-04Z associated with this
activity. Have handled the precipitation this evening with TEMPOS
at respective TAF sites. The second concern is a cold front that will
drop south through the area this evening. FROPA is expected at
KHOB by 03Z, KMAF aroiund 05Z, and KFST by around 08Z, with winds
increasing and becoming gusty out of the NE. Some -SHRA may
develop along and behind the front, with MVFR ceilings to follow.
MVFR conditions are expected to persist through Friday morning or
perhaps early Friday afternoon, and while additional SHRA/TSRA is
possible, have not included it in any area TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A few light showers are currently moving across the area under
mostly cloudy skies.  An upper level trough is over northern Mexico
just south of California and Arizona. This upper trough is slowly
moving eastward and is increasing upper lift with an upper jet
moving over the region.  A shortwave is also projected to move over
the area as indicated by vorticity maximum.  An approaching cold
front will also increase lift with higher omega values across the
Permian Basin this afternoon and evening.  A surface trough is
expected to strengthen across the area with southwest winds aiding
in compressional warming so temperatures this afternoon will warm up
to above normal values.  These conditions will allow for a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the CWA beginning this afternoon.
There is a slight chance that a few storms could become strong
across the Davis Mountains and Terrell County where CAPE values will
be the highest; however, this is not likely due to the substantial
cloud cover across this area. Bulk shear from 0 to 6 km will be high
across the whole area but mid-level lapse rates will be marginal.

The cold front will move into the area this evening into the
overnight hours as the upper trough moves closer to the region.
This front will allow for a continued chance of rain and
thunderstorms into tonight.  Temperatures will once again cool
behind the front on Friday with the best chance of rain and isolated
thunderstorms mostly along and south of I-20 but not expecting any
strong storms on Friday since CAPE is expected to be less than 500
J/kg and mid-level lapse rates will be very marginal.  Heavy rain
and localized flash flooding will be a threat starting on Friday
mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Rain and thunderstorms will
continue into Saturday as the upper trough moves over the region.
The heavy rain and flash flood threat on Saturday will shift to
locations along and southwest of the Pecos River.  Did not issue a
Flash Flood Watch at this time due to differences in the models with
speed/location of the upper trough and the possibility of the front
moving through faster than most of the models are indicating.

On Sunday, the upper trough is expected to move eastward so drier
conditions should return to the area with temperatures warming to
above normal on Sunday as a surface trough develops across the
area.  Temperatures are expected to remain above normal until
Wednesday night when another cold front is expected to push through
the area.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also increase
across the area with this frontal passage.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.