Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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859
FXUS64 KMAF 251752
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 25/18Z aviation forecast discussion below. Feliz
Navidad!

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR though the next 24 hours.

A thick layer of cirrostratus up around FL200 will persist over
area terminals through 26/18Z. The high deck may thin out a little
overnight, but we should see an increase in clouds around FL150. A
deepening storm system over the central high plains today will
keep winds gusty at KFST, KMAF, and KHOB. At KCNM and KPEQ, the
valley inversion should keep their winds generally under 10 kts.
These winds will die down and back overnight. By mid morning
Friday, however, the pressure gradient will tighten up a bit,
bringing an increase in southwesterly and gusty winds across all
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions with an abundance of high clouds are expected the
next 24 hours. Light winds early this morning will generally
become south at 10 to 20 mph through early this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CST Thursday...skies are clear across
the CWA. Water vapor imagery is indc a mid/upper system moving
through the Wasatch Range in Utah with a trof stretching
southwest.

Southwest flow sfc/aloft will bring above normal temps to the CWA
today and Friday. High clouds associated with the trof will temper
the high temps a bit...even with the downslope flow. It looks like
it will be windy today across the Guadalupe Mtns...but latest
thinking is that it should remain below warning criteria. This
will continue to be monitored.

The mid/upper trof weakens and splits as it moves east with the
southern portion struggling to move across the Southern Plains
this weekend. This trof will drag a cold front thru the CWA...with
the models waffling on how much cold air will drop this far south
and how much moisture there will be to work with. With the model
differences have went with slight chc pops in southeast New Mexico
Friday...with slight chances slowly moving south and east through
Saturday night. Temperature profiles keep the precip liquid through
Friday evening...then mixing or changing to snow late Friday night
and Saturday. With slight chc pops and light showers at most it
does not look like there will be any significant winter weather.
Temps will be below normal Saturday...warming to near normal on
Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday a shortwave diving south out of the Northwest
Territories of Canada will move into the Desert Southwest with a
cold front moving through the CWA. This system will slowly lift
ENE into the Northern TX Panhandle by late Thursday. The models
have pulled back on the amount of cold air that will move into the
CWA. Whereas temps will be well below normal models are not nearly
as cold as they have been showing the past several days. It will
be interesting to see what future model runs show. The models are
also waffling on how much...if any precipitation will occur with
this system. For now the forecast will show slight chance pops for
the end of 2014.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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