Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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465
FXUS64 KMAF 210925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
425 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows zonal
flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning, w/an
upper trough swinging thru the Great Lakes Region, and another off
the coast of SoCal/Baja, south of a ridge extending up into the
PacNW.  An incoming trough to the PacNW over the next few days will
push the ridge east and deepen the Baja trough, transitioning zonal
flow aloft to SW over the next 24 hours.  Return flow will keep
moisture fairly well into the CWA for most of the day today, w/a
very weak dryline forecast, if at all.  Dryline then sharpens up
after 00Z Wednesday, w/models hinting at moisture surging NW,
especially after 06Z.  Models are pretty dry over the next 24 hours,
but do hint at bringing a few disturbances into the area.  Forecast
soundings overnight over the Wrn Low Rolling Plains show sbcapes
well in excess of 2500 J/kg and mid-lvl LR`s of better than 8C/km.
0-6km bulk shear of 40 kts or better will favor supercells, but
wet-bulb zeroes will be pretty low (< 7 kft AGL) for large hail.
However, moisture will be shallow, and soundings hint at dry
microburst potential.  We will continue to emphasize this threat in
the HWO.

Wednesday, flow aloft becomes even more SW as the upper trough makes
landfall, w/temps remaining abv-normal and even increasing a degree
or two.  A developing sfc trough will increase SW-W flow over the
area, keeping the moisture, dryline, and convective threat further
east.  Of course, w/the loss of convective chances, fire wx concerns
will increase in the Guadalupes.  See Fire Wx Discussion below for
details.  Thursday and Friday, the upper trough is forecast to open
and eject into the 4 Corners region and beyond.  Leeside sfc troughing
will result in breezy SW flow areawide, and Wind Advisories may be
warranted.  Chances of convection will increase Thursday/Thursday
night, w/the NAM and GFS bringing a shortwave into the area, before
moisture is shunted east Friday.

Otherwise, temps will remain abv-normal into the extended, under
zonal to SW flow aloft.  Not much in the models warrant a mention of
rain.  W/the latest ECMWF not available, we`ll keep the grids
dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several days of fire weather concerns are expected this week as an
active southern stream continues. Dry air will spread east this
afternoon behind a developing dryline, but winds should mostly
remain below 15 mph areawide except for in the Guadalupe Mnts where
wind speeds may reach near 20 mph. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
is in effect for this afternoon for the Guadalupe Mnts due to the
near critical fire weather conditions. An upper level disturbance
will pass just to our north Wednesday helping to accelerate the
dryline eastward across the region. RH`s will almost certainly reach
critical values over most if not all of the area Wednesday
afternoon. Stronger winds will mix down behind the dryline...however
models differ on how strong. Will keep the Fire Weather Watch for
the Guadalupe Mnts where confidence is highest for Red Flag
conditions to occur. We may see more near critical fire weather
conditions Thursday with strong winds, but slightly higher rh`s. By
Friday, another wave will move out of the SW U.S. with strong winds
and low rh`s spreading across a large part of the region. Widespread
critical fire weather conditions will be possible Friday across all
of W TX and SE NM so stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  59  85  56  /  20  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              84  63  88  59  /  20  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                83  54  82  51  /   0  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  80  63  91  66  /  20  10  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  57  87  61  /  20  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  52  73  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  53  81  52  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  42  77  45  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  62  87  60  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  85  61  85  62  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                    86  58  87  56  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/44

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