Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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255
FXUS64 KMAF 050212
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
912 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF radar and satellite shows convection has largely diminished
w/loss of diurnal heating, and trends/00Z NAM suggest anything
overnight will be confined to the Presidio Valley...if that. We`ll
do a quick update to pare back coverage/POPs 1st period, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Happy fireworks.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  93  74  95  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    72  96  73  96  /  10  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      73  93  73  95  /  10  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  93  71  95  /  10  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  68  86  /  10  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       68  92  70  94  /  10  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       65  86  64  87  /  10  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      72  92  73  94  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        74  97  73  98  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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