Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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557
FXUS64 KMAF 140512
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2014/

The upper ridge will remain centered over the region the next
couple days, with the warming trend expected to continue into the
weekend. Mid level moisture axis confined to the higher terrain
today and given upslope southeast winds, isolated thunderstorms
should persist across these areas through sundown. Thursday, the
moisture axis is shunted to the west however with upslope flow
remaining and dewpoints near 50, think afternoon isolated storms
will be possible once again in the mountain regions.

Friday, the mid level theta e ridge will return to west TX and SE NM
while the upper ridge slowly shifts westward. An eastward moving
shortwave trough is progged to move over NM Friday and into west TX
Saturday, providing upper level forcing for ascent. In addition, a
surface trough will extend SW from the TX Panhandle, providing a
surface focus for convection to develop. The NAM is definitely the
most aggressive with the upper s/w but with the surface trough in
place, think a mention of at least slight chance across these areas
is needed for Friday/Saturday. The 850mb ridge will continue to
intensify headed into the weekend and several locations will likely
reach or exceed 100 by Saturday. On the other hand, areas that
receive rain or abundant cloud cover Friday/Saturday may not reach
these forecasted hot temperatures.

Sunday, the upper ridge will begin to slide west and weaken its
hold on us. Could get enough diurnal heating to get isolated
convection across some areas, particularly in the higher terrain.
Could also see a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday/Tuesday
but will keep the forecast dry for now. Temperatures will remain
above normal through the beginning of next week, however they will
be slightly cooler than the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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