Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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380
FXUS64 KMAF 211857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heights are expected to rise over Texas Monday as an ua trough over
the Midwest ejects northeastward into Canada, which will allow the
upper ridge over the southeastern ConUS to expand westward.  Progs
indicate the upper ridge will not become established over the
central U.S. through next week though, initially due to a weak
southern stream ua trough expanding across the southwestern ConUS,
and thereafter the same ua trough being reinvigorated by a stronger
northern stream ua trough along the U.S./Canadian border.  This will
put southeast New Mexico and west Texas under weak southwesterly
flow aloft today, and a bit stronger southwesterly flow aloft Monday
through Thursday as the trough deepens/expands south through New
Mexico.  The net result will be a continuation of rain chances, and
near to below normal temperatures for the next six or seven days.

The above mentioned ua trough over the desert southwest will provide
a chance of showers and storms over southeast New Mexico this
afternoon and tonight, with additional showers and storms possible
over west Texas due to upslope flow and the heating of the higher
terrain.  Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall as PWats
will be around 1.25 inches.  PWats will be on the increase tonight
and Monday as moisture, and a couple of mid level disturbances, move
north over the region on the westward expanding fringe of the upper
ridge.  Water Vapor satellite imagery indicates the first such
perturbation to be over eastern Coahuila this afternoon.  Since
models build the upper ridge westward to varying degrees, and lift
this perturbation northward at different speeds, will increase PoPs
late tonight and Monday over the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin.  Do not think enough rainfall will occur for widespread flash
flooding, so will mention heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphics on the NWS
MAF homepage.

The forecast area will remain between the deepening ua trough to the
west and the ua ridge to the east Tuesday through Thursday.
PWats will be high enough during this time for heavy rainfall, so if
we receive fairly widespread rainfall Monday, a Flash Flood Watch
may be needed Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday for portions of the
forecast area.  After Thursday, the ua ridge attempts to strengthen/
expand westward.  It looks like PoPs will not be as high, but there
will still be at least a slight chance of showers and storms Friday
through next weekend in most locations.  Another cold front may move
into the region Thursday, but the continuation of rain chances,
cloud cover and moist ground will keep high temperatures near to
slightly below normal through the week, if not late in the extended
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  82  71  88 /  20  60  30  40
Carlsbad                       66  85  68  90 /  20  30  30  40
Dryden                         70  83  70  90 /  50  50  20  20
Fort Stockton                  67  83  68  87 /  30  50  20  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  76  62  78 /  30  40  30  40
Hobbs                          62  81  66  87 /  20  30  20  40
Marfa                          58  78  59  77 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Odessa                         67  84  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
Wink                           67  85  70  88 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/67

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