Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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060
FXUS64 KMAF 280522
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. Currently have E/SE winds area wide
tonight however a front, now moving south through LBB, may reach
HOB around 28/12Z (given the front maintains its current speed),
briefly shifting winds to the NE. SE winds are expected to
increase throughout the morning as the front stalls just north of
the terminals. Therefore will maintain strong SE winds through
Monday afternoon at all sites. Could see some convection develop
along/near the front Monday evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and
MAF but will hold off on any mention of this in the TAF for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014/

Not many changes to the current forecast. WV imagery shows an
elongated upper ridge centered just north of West Texas/SE NM,
allowing for another day of widespread triple-digit temps across
the area. At the sfc, a weak front/boundary lies across the S.
Plains, w/return flow to the south. A dense cu field has developed
over the mtns, and upslope flow this afternoon/evening will focus
isolated chances of convection there.

Monday, thicknesses begin decreasing, and should drop temps area-
wide by about a category Monday and Tuesday afternoons.
Aforementioned front may make it into SE NM and the Western Low
Rolling Plains, and be the focus of isolated convection along a
zone of low lvl convergence as depicted by the 12Z NAM. Wednesday,
strong return flow resumes as a leeside sfc trough drifts south
into the area. Models show a spike in thicknesses across the area,
and afternoon temps may reach the century mark one more time for
this forecast.

Late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models bring a stronger
cold front thru the region. Front may hang up during the day a
little, but models take it to the Rio Grande by 12Z Friday. Along
w/isolated-slight chances of rain w/the front, temps Thu afternoon
should top out right around normal, and below-normal Friday,
w/models forecasting H85 temps ranging near 20C NE to under 30C
SW. Long-range models are similar on temps, but much will also
depend on extent of cloud cover/rain. Temps begin coming back up
Saturday, but models hint at another front Saturday night, for
below-normal temps again Sunday.

During this time, models really moisten the column up, w/PWATs
increasing to 1.5-2" by Saturday. The GFS raises PWATs at KMAF to
around 1.9" Saturday...about 3 std devs above normal.  Thus, the
potential for heavy rainfall will be there over the weekend as
models bring disturbances thru the east side of the ridge. For
now, we`ll continue a low-POP shotgun approach, as this is too far
out to accurately hone in on triggers.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

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