Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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845
FXUS64 KMAF 041540
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1040 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light veering sfc
winds. Few, if any, high clouds expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     53  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  89  58  93 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         58  90  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  56  89  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  82  58  87 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          49  87  57  88 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          42  82  49  86 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           54  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         55  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           52  93  62  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/27/44

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