Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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405
FXUS64 KMAF 011110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds through the period occasionally
gusting in the afternoon. Isolated TS will remain east of all TAF
sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A dryline will push east through much of the region today and looks
to become co-located with a mid-level theta-e gradient over far
eastern zones by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
will dive SE though the Rockies today and may provide enough
upper forcing to aid in thunderstorm development near the dryline.
With all this in mind, think it is worth introducing slight chance
across far eastern zones this afternoon and evening. Models
suggest MLCAPE values near 2500 J/kg possible over these areas
with values increasing eastward. A few storms could become severe
with large hail being the main threat. Strong winds, brief heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning could also accompany any strong
storms.

Another hot day expected today with highs forecasted to be well
above normal values for this time of year. Fortunately, as the
aforementioned shortwave trough moves through the Plains
Thursday, it will send a dry cold front south through the FA.
Winds will shift to the north behind the front and may become a
bit breezy for a few hours during the day. Temperatures could be
about 5-10 degrees cooler at most locations Thursday compared to
today. A surface ridge will settle into the area Thursday night
with another push of cooler expected for Friday. High temperatures
on Friday will be a few degrees below normal with readings
generally in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Beyond Friday, upper ridging amplified across the western ConUS will
result in NW flow aloft across the CWA. Model guidance shows a weak
disturbance moving over the region during the Sun/Mon time frame but
best available moisture looks to stay to the east and we should
remain dry. Otherwise, southerly flow at the surface will return
Saturday with a gradual warming trend expected through the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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