Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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086
FXUS64 KMAF 260504
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Southeast winds around 10-12kt
sustained through Saturday night with some higher gusts at MAF and
FST during the afternoon hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge extends w-e from NM into OK leaving MAF`s CWFA
in ely mid level flow aloft. Water vapor reveals absence of
identifiable shrtwv trof and with lack of a sfc boundary there is
little opportunity for shra/tsra today. Sat-Sun there will be
little sensible wx change, just hot. 85h temps from around 28C
across the PB to 31C across SE NM will continue to support high
temps from the U90s to L100s. Hottest along parts of the Rio
Grande, especially from Big Bend to Terrell Co where high temps
are right at 105 and lows in the mid/upper 70s, thus continuation
of heat advisory there. Amplification of mid level ridge farther
nw and ern U.S. trof signal a pattern transition to NW flow aloft
by Tue/Wed. There`s a good chance that a weak boundary will be
across the nrn CWFA Monday. Mid level theta-e ridge, hier sfc
mstr, and better SB instability will be n of the boundary.
Forecast already has low probability PoPs across the n and this
still looks good based on latest data. Shrtwv trof within NW Wed
along with convection will push a boundary into W TX plains, but
staying n of CWFA until Thur. Based on boundary and NW flow
Thur/Fri would seem to most favored days for precip at this point.
Still too far out to commit to any hier PoPs than are in the
forecast. Higher likelihood is that temps will cool off to below
normal Thur/Fr.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Big Bend Area...Terrell.


&&

$$

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