Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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220
FXUS64 KMAF 110435
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1035 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR stratus has slowly begun to spread northwestward into the
area, and could affect MAF and FST for a few hours tonight. Have
included a TEMPO to account for lower ceilings at MAF from 07-11Z,
but refrained from mention at FST due to lower confidence.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, and south winds tonight
will veer to the west by late Sunday morning, with gusts to
around 25kt possible through the afternoon. Gusts will diminish
after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CST Saturday...pretty mundane weather
pattern for the upcoming week.

Satl imagery and sfc obs indc that the low clouds have finally
burned off along the Pecos River Valley in Southeast New Mexico.

Models are indc a nearly zonal flow across the southern tier of
states...which will lock up the Arctic airmass well to the north
of the area. With increasing westerly flow would not expect a
repeat of low clouds tonight due to a drier airmass and better
mixing. Winds will increase across the Guadalupe Mtns Sunday but
should remain below High Wind Criteria. Temps will be well above
normal thru Wednesday (10+ degrees...normal high for Midland is 58
degrees). A shortwave passing across the Northern Plains late
Wednesday will drive a cold front south...but latest medium range
models keeps the majority of the Arctic air to the north. There
could be some cooling Wed night/Thursday as a little cooler air
gives a glancing blow to the CWA. This can change since the models
have a difficult time with shallow cold air masses.

And back we go to zonal flow Thursday aftn and Friday leading to
well above normal temps once again for Friday. The 12Z GFS and
ECMWF begin to diverge next weekend on the strength and position
of a deep trof moving onto the West Coast. For now...temps will
cool but still remain a little above normal.

Dry weather is expected thru the upcoming work week...and into
next weekend as well.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  73  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       41  72  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         37  71  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  44  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 42  64  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          39  70  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          30  70  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           42  73  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  72  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           37  74  39  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$