Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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994
FXUS64 KMAF 132312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front has been holding in the southern Texas Panhandle this
afternoon, but will begin moving south again shortly arriving in
the area around midnight. Winds will shift from the north and
become very gusty for about 12 hours behind the front before
diminishing late in the TAF period. MVFR CIGs are expected near
12Z and will hang around for only a few hours before moving
southeast.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough ejecting thru the Central Plains,
while a sfc analysis shows a dryline has sharpened up over the
eastern tier of zones. At 18Z, KMAF had a Td of 22F, whereas Big
Lake had a Td of 60F.  Area radars show convection trying to develop
along/east of the dryline, but well out of our FA.  Latest obs/RTMA
analysis indicates Red Flag conditions ongoing over the northern
half of the CWA, not yet having developed south.  The NAM once again
initialized better on sfc moisture and winds than did the GFS, and
remains the preferred model.  That said, latest run develops
critical fire wx conditions south into the Big Bend area later this
afternoon as the dryline continues mixing east, so the current RFW
looks good.

Meanwhile, to the north, a cold front was moving into the Texas
Panhandle, and forecast to backdoor into the Wrn Low Rolling Plains
just after 06Z, w/buffer soundings suggesting fropa at KMAF just
after 07Z.  A very tight MSL pressure gradient on the order of
10mb/110nm will accompany the front, and w/dry soils, a wall of dust
also.  We`ll expand the wind advisory west and south for areas after
midnight, and even lingering into Monday morning for areas SW.
Temps Monday afternoon should come in well below normal...more
representative of early January than mid April, as a secondary
trough follows the first.  A big question remains as to where it
will freeze Tuesday morning, as there is a temp spread among the
models.  MET guidance looks unreasonably cold, whereas the MAV looks
closer to reality.  Forecast soundings, clear skies, and decoupling
suggest a model blend would be best attm.  We`ll continue w/an SPS
emphasizing a freeze for now, and issue a warning for specific areas
either w/tonight or tomorrow`s package.

NW flow aloft follows the second trough, and temps begin slowly
warming to normal by midweek.  Wednesday night, models push a second
cold front into the area, w/the GFS/DGEX being stronger than the
ECMWF/CMC.  Both the ECMWF (warmest) and GFS (coldest) are outliers,
so we`ve used a model blend of the two attm, which would put temps
later into Saturday just south of normal.  By the weekend, models
develop a closed upper low over SoCal, leaving West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Moisture return looks excellent by this time,
w/forecasted dewpoints in the 50s area-wide by Saturday afternoon.
This looks to be the next best chance of rain for the area, w/models
breaking out convection ahead of the trough.  Of course, models are
out of sync on timing of the trough, w/the GFS the most aggressive,
the ECMWF lagging back in CA, and the DGEX in between.  For this
reason, we`ll leave the grids dry for now, and just insert higher
pops/increased cloud cover over the area
Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     WIND ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM MDT Monday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Presidio Valley...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Ward...Winkler.

     HIGH WIND WARNING until 6 PM MDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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