Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 112321

612 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015


See 00z aviation discussion below.



There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening through
tomorrow with tomorrow afternoon having the best chances.  Winds
will generally be out of the south and will be gusty at times and
variable through the first half of the night. There is a chance for
low ceilings across the area around 09z to 14z with the best chances
being at MAF.  Winds will weaken before 12z and will mostly be out
of the south on Sunday with stronger/more variable winds near areas
of convection.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2015/

Clouds are slowly clearing w-e with recent convective development in
S Terrell Co, where LIs are -4 to -8. Another axis of SB instability
is across the nrn CWFA into the S Plains and s into Concho Valley
and with clearing new development is anticipated in nrn parts where
SB CINH is weaker, in general agreement with ECMWF/GFS QPF.  There
is potential for isold severe storms too, with CAPES above 2000 J/KG
and 30-35kts across the nrn PB. Sunday, said upper low will be sw of
KELP and this will place the CWFA within a favorable area for
precip, in the backed 5h winds and within the axis of highest PW (~3
standard deviations above normal per NAEFS). Expect that SHRA/TSRA
will move across the Rio Grande INVOF the Big Bend near 18Z and then
expand in coverage as lift increases within deformation zone.
NAM80/GFS depict a well-defined OMEGA maxima, especially across
Trans Pecos and the PB. MET guidance mostly reflects chance PoPs as
does the current fcst. Our impression, largely based on the pattern,
is that PoPs should be more into the "likely" category. With such
high PWs and persistent lift locally heavy rain is possible,
marginal severe wx too, mainly across the ern 1/3 of CWFA. Said low
and assocd axis of maxima PW/OMEGA lift nwd Sunday night/Mon AM. As
such PoPs will be less Monday, but the 5h low will be over the area
with enuf instability for continued scattered SHRA/TSRA. An assocd
cold front will slowly move s into the nrn PB late Mon PM, which may
renew precip for a few hrs across the nrn PB. Temps will be
difficult because of rain cooled air Sunday, underneath upper low
Monday, and cooler in wake of the front Tue? Another front looks to
arrive Wed night/Thursday morning, re-enforcing cool/dry air Thur.
Mstr return does not look likely Friday/Saturday.






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