Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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105
FXUS64 KMAF 151735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Warm front is lifting n and winds will turn se in its wake with
improving CIGS/VSBY. TSRA were from around HOB to MAF to FST
moving n at 40kt while the area is moving ne. Some strong to
possibly severe TSRA are possible. Consensus is that front is
expected to e of MAF/FST between 21Z- 22Z. Have TEMPO groups in
TAF sites til then. CIGS/VSBY will afterwards. but fog may settle
back in Mon AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have broken up the LIFR visibility and
ceilings at area terminals somewhat.  The lower ceilings, and
visibility, may set back in through 15/15Z, but will carry mainly
MVFR ceilings, with temporary lower conditions.  Expect additional
thunderstorms to develop and spread west to east over the forecast
area.  Ceilings will lift, but gusts of 45kt or greater could occur
with TSRA. winds will veer to the southwest and increase after
thunderstorms pass by.  Expect VFR conditions areawide tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

.Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  59  36  57 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  58  34  56 /  20   0  10  10
Dryden                         44  69  45  61 /  10   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  40  63  39  59 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 35  50  34  50 /  20   0  10  10
Hobbs                          33  56  31  55 /  20   0  10  10
Marfa                          29  58  30  57 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           38  60  35  57 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  57 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           36  60  34  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

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