Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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284
FXUS64 KMAF 261128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers are ongoing this morning, though have only
included -RA mention at FST and PEQ where precipitation looks to
be more persistent. VFR conditions are expected to continue at
CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF, with prevailing VFR expected at PEQ by
18Z, though ongoing rain and perhaps a thunderstorm could maintain
MVFR/IFR conditions at FST as late as 27/00Z. Northeast winds will
continue, with gusts diminishing this afternoon, and light winds
expected overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low INVOF Baja Calif with
rich moisture still in place to the e with diffluent flow
aloft across the Trans Pecos. Isentropic lift is still ongoing
across the CWFA and with such rich moisture being lifted
scattered -SHRA are persisting. There is still some mid level
lift too, but the lack of instability as seen thru 7h-5h LRs of
5.5 C/KM is precluding deeper convection. Referenced lift will
persist and passing -SHRA will remain in the forecast across most
of the area through 18Z or so. Radar does show better SHRA/embedded
isold TSRA SE of Terrell Co and they are moving NW. As such
moderate-heavy SHRA/TSRA will be possible across the Lower Trans
Pecos this morning. Highest PoPs (sct-likely) will be oriented
along the mtns extending SE into the Lower Trans Pecos. Surface
MSLP gradient will be tightest S of the Pecos River where breezy
to briefly windy conditions are possible today. Farther N gusty
winds this morning will give way to decreasing winds later in the
afternoon. 85h winds are still increasing and high winds have
recently started thru GDP Pass and thus the warning will remain
in effect. Even though clouds will lift some thru the day
(especially N of I-20) they will mostly remain and with surface
high pressure today`s high temperatures will remain well below
normal, mostly in the 60s, but 50s across parts of the Trans
Pecos. A few -SHRA may continue Mon night/Tue AM across the Trans
Pecos, dry elsewhere. Clouds will be slow to dissipate on Tue
with high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer, still well below normal.
Mid level ridging will increase Wed and temperatures will increase
closer to normal, highs mostly N80 and moreso Thur/Fri. Increased
westerly flow aloft next weekend will aid in lee trof/thermal ridge
development supporting the continuation of a warming trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  53  75  55 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       64  54  72  55 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         67  57  72  60 /  80  50  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  53  70  57 /  70  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  48  65  54 /  50  20  20  10
Hobbs                          67  53  73  54 /  30  10  10   0
Marfa                          57  51  66  53 /  60  50  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         66  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           65  55  74  57 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
737
FXUS64 KMAF 260834
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
334 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows the upper low INVOF Baja Calif with
rich moisture still in place to the e with diffluent flow
aloft across the Trans Pecos. Isentropic lift is still ongoing
across the CWFA and with such rich moisture being lifted
scattered -SHRA are persisting. There is still some mid level
lift too, but the lack of instability as seen thru 7h-5h LRs of
5.5 C/KM is precluding deeper convection. Referenced lift will
persist and passing -SHRA will remain in the forecast across most
of the area through 18Z or so. Radar does show better SHRA/embedded
isold TSRA SE of Terrell Co and they are moving NW. As such
moderate-heavy SHRA/TSRA will be possible across the Lower Trans
Pecos this morning. Highest PoPs (sct-likely) will be oriented
along the mtns extending SE into the Lower Trans Pecos. Surface
MSLP gradient will be tightest S of the Pecos River where breezy
to briefly windy conditions are possible today. Farther N gusty
winds this morning will give way to decreasing winds later in the
afternoon. 85h winds are still increasing and high winds have
recently started thru GDP Pass and thus the warning will remain
in effect. Even though clouds will lift some thru the day
(especially N of I-20) they will mostly remain and with surface
high pressure today`s high temperatures will remain well below
normal, mostly in the 60s, but 50s across parts of the Trans
Pecos. A few -SHRA may continue Mon night/Tue AM across the Trans
Pecos, dry elsewhere. Clouds will be slow to dissipate on Tue
with high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer, still well below normal.
Mid level ridging will increase Wed and temperatures will increase
closer to normal, highs mostly N80 and moreso Thur/Fri. Increased
westerly flow aloft next weekend will aid in lee trof/thermal ridge
development supporting the continuation of a warming trend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  53  75  55 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       64  54  72  55 /  30  10  10  10
Dryden                         67  57  72  60 /  80  50  20  10
Fort Stockton                  59  53  70  57 /  70  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  48  65  54 /  50  20  20  10
Hobbs                          67  53  73  54 /  30  10  10   0
Marfa                          57  51  66  53 /  60  50  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Odessa                         66  55  74  55 /  30  10  10   0
Wink                           65  55  74  57 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
443
FXUS64 KMAF 260537
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR ceilings are affecting all but CNM and HOB at issuance,
though slow and gradual improvement to VFR is expected overnight
for INK, PEQ, and MAF. FST will likely see lower ceilings through
Monday morning, with improvement to VFR around 18Z. Breezy
N/NE winds will continue, though speeds should decrease after
18Z. Otherwise, a few showers could affect area terminals through
Monday morning, though have only included TEMPO mention at MAF
with MVFR visibility the first few hours of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have sent a late evening update to cancel the watch and lower PoPs.
There is good indications of divergence (4h streamlines) and
moisture in place, but instability lacking. MCS to the SE will
tend to preclude concerns for development farther NW. As such we
have lowered PoPs to chance in most areas, except small area of
likely across the far S. Also have decreased the winds some using
latest data. Updates are out. Winds are a little slow coming up
thru GDP but are trending up for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  52  70  54 /  30  10  10   0
Carlsbad                       61  53  68  55 /  30  30  10  10
Dryden                         68  57  70  60 /  60  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  61  52  67  57 /  50  40  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 52  45  61  53 /  60  30  10  10
Hobbs                          60  51  69  52 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                          59  50  65  54 /  50  40  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           61  52  70  54 /  30  10  10  10
Odessa                         60  53  70  54 /  30  10  10  10
Wink                           61  53  69  56 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
203
FXUS64 KMAF 260449 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Have sent a late evening update to cancel the watch and lower PoPs.
There is good indications of divergence (4h streamlines) and
moisture in place, but instability lacking. MCS to the SE will
tend to preclude concerns for development farther NW. As such we
have lowered PoPs to chance in most areas, except small area of
likely across the far S. Also have decreased the winds some using
latest data. Updates are out. Winds are a little slow coming up
thru GDP but are trending up for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  61  52  70 /  40  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       56  61  53  68 /  30  30  30  10
Dryden                         63  68  57  70 /  60  60  60  30
Fort Stockton                  57  61  52  67 /  50  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  52  45  61 /  40  60  30  10
Hobbs                          54  60  51  69 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          55  59  50  65 /  50  50  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           56  61  52  70 /  40  30  10  10
Odessa                         55  60  53  70 /  40  30  10  10
Wink                           58  61  53  69 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
475
FXUS64 KMAF 252338
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
638 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A front pushed through the area today leaving a gusty NE wind in
its wake... expect speeds to decrease during the evening. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue across the area through the
overnight period. Low clouds are possible through mid morning
with mainly MVFR cigs but some local IFR conditions expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Despite rainfall being slow to develop over the forecast area,
the potential for heavy rainfall still exists.  However, will
trim the western counties from the Watch, and leave the eastern
most counties in effect through tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms have filled in a little over the forecast
area this afternoon, especially a cold front moving south into
the region.  So far, portions of southern Pecos county, Upton,
Reagan, Glasscock and Mitchell counties have seen the heaviest
rainfall since last night as the axis of heaviest precipitation
has been mainly east of the forecast area.  The cutoff low
continues to swirl over the Mexican state of Sonora, with good
difluent flow aloft over the region to the east of this feature.
The trend in operational models is for the upper low to retrograde
farther southwestward through tonight, before translating north
into the Great Basin Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper trough.

Think numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the forecast area as the cold front pushes south through the
region this afternoon and tonight.  PWATs are still near 1.75 inches
over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, or near climatological
record levels for 25 September.  Severe storms look unlikely due
to a very moist column and modest instability, but heavy rainfall
could still occur, especially over the eastern most zones this
afternoon/evening where the best lift is indicated, and enough
instability present to support higher rainfall rates.  Still
think 2-4 inch amounts could occur in these areas, hence the Flash
Flood Watch remaining in effect for Scurry, Mitchell, Glasscock,
Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Terrell and Brewster counties.

Over the rest of the forecast area, there could still be heavy
rainfall, but it appears it will be much more spotty, and something
which can be covered with Areal Flood Advisories instead.  Therefore,
have decided to trim Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Andrews, Martin,
Howard, Winkler, Ector, Midland, Ward and Crane from the Flash
Flood Watch.  Expect low level upslope flow and isentropic
upglide over the front to increase but a more stable atmosphere
will likely keep rainfall rates lower and any higher rainfall
totals will occur over a longer duration.  Lastly, the High Wind
Warning will remain in effect for Guadalupe Pass from this
afternoon through Monday morning.  Model guidance has toned down
the outlandish wind speeds displayed there prior, and have also
lowered near Wind Advisory northeast winds (30-40 mph) over the
Permian Basin tonight too.

Rain chances will continue on Monday, and if all of the above comes
about, the Flash Flood Watch may have to be extended, especially
for the Lower Trans Pecos.  Will forego extension of the Watch at
this time so as to see how much actually falls in these areas
before committing to an extension.  High temperatures will be
well below normal along and south of Interstate 20, and over the
higher terrain of SE NM and west Texas Monday. Locations further
north and east could see a bit more sun, so they won`t be quite as
cool.  A drying and warming trend will set in Tuesday and
Wednesday, with readings expected to be near normal into next
weekend.  There could be an uptick in rain chances Thursday/
Friday, but lack of agreement will prevent addition of chance
PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       56  61  53  68 /  30  30  30  10
Dryden                         63  68  57  70 /  60  60  60  30
Fort Stockton                  57  61  52  67 /  60  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  52  45  61 /  60  60  30  10
Hobbs                          54  60  51  69 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          55  59  50  65 /  50  50  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           56  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Odessa                         55  60  53  70 /  60  30  10  10
Wink                           58  61  53  69 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Big Bend Area-
     Glasscock-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
640
FXUS64 KMAF 251905
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Despite rainfall being slow to develop over the forecast area,
the potential for heavy rainfall still exists.  However, will
trim the western counties from the Watch, and leave the eastern
most counties in effect through tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms have filled in a little over the forecast
area this afternoon, especially a cold front moving south into
the region.  So far, portions of southern Pecos county, Upton,
Reagan, Glasscock and Mitchell counties have seen the heaviest
rainfall since last night as the axis of heaviest precipitation
has been mainly east of the forecast area.  The cutoff low
continues to swirl over the Mexican state of Sonora, with good
difluent flow aloft over the region to the east of this feature.
The trend in operational models is for the upper low to retrograde
farther southwestward through tonight, before translating north
into the Great Basin Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper trough.

Think numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the forecast area as the cold front pushes south through the
region this afternoon and tonight.  PWATs are still near 1.75 inches
over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, or near climatological
record levels for 25 September.  Severe storms look unlikely due
to a very moist column and modest instability, but heavy rainfall
could still occur, especially over the eastern most zones this
afternoon/evening where the best lift is indicated, and enough
instability present to support higher rainfall rates.  Still
think 2-4 inch amounts could occur in these areas, hence the Flash
Flood Watch remaining in effect for Scurry, Mitchell, Glasscock,
Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Terrell and Brewster counties.

Over the rest of the forecast area, there could still be heavy
rainfall, but it appears it will be much more spotty, and something
which can be covered with Areal Flood Advisories instead.  Therefore,
have decided to trim Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Andrews, Martin,
Howard, Winkler, Ector, Midland, Ward and Crane from the Flash
Flood Watch.  Expect low level upslope flow and isentropic
upglide over the front to increase but a more stable atmosphere
will likely keep rainfall rates lower and any higher rainfall
totals will occur over a longer duration.  Lastly, the High Wind
Warning will remain in effect for Guadalupe Pass from this
afternoon through Monday morning.  Model guidance has toned down
the outlandish wind speeds displayed there prior, and have also
lowered near Wind Advisory northeast winds (30-40 mph) over the
Permian Basin tonight too.

Rain chances will continue on Monday, and if all of the above comes
about, the Flash Flood Watch may have to be extended, especially
for the Lower Trans Pecos.  Will forego extension of the Watch at
this time so as to see how much actually falls in these areas
before committing to an extension.  High temperatures will be
well below normal along and south of Interstate 20, and over the
higher terrain of SE NM and west Texas Monday. Locations further
north and east could see a bit more sun, so they won`t be quite as
cool.  A drying and warming trend will set in Tuesday and
Wednesday, with readings expected to be near normal into next
weekend.  There could be an uptick in rain chances Thursday/
Friday, but lack of agreement will prevent addition of chance
PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       56  61  53  68 /  30  30  30  10
Dryden                         63  68  57  70 /  60  60  60  30
Fort Stockton                  57  61  52  67 /  60  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  52  45  61 /  60  60  30  10
Hobbs                          54  60  51  69 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          55  59  50  65 /  50  50  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           56  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Odessa                         55  60  53  70 /  60  30  10  10
Wink                           58  61  53  69 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Big Bend Area-
     Glasscock-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/67
335
FXUS64 KMAF 251905
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Despite rainfall being slow to develop over the forecast area,
the potential for heavy rainfall still exists.  However, will
trim the western counties from the Watch, and leave the eastern
most counties in effect through tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms have filled in a little over the forecast
area this afternoon, especially a cold front moving south into
the region.  So far, portions of southern Pecos county, Upton,
Reagan, Glasscock and Mitchell counties have seen the heaviest
rainfall since last night as the axis of heaviest precipitation
has been mainly east of the forecast area.  The cutoff low
continues to swirl over the Mexican state of Sonora, with good
difluent flow aloft over the region to the east of this feature.
The trend in operational models is for the upper low to retrograde
farther southwestward through tonight, before translating north
into the Great Basin Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper trough.

Think numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop
over the forecast area as the cold front pushes south through the
region this afternoon and tonight.  PWATs are still near 1.75 inches
over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, or near climatological
record levels for 25 September.  Severe storms look unlikely due
to a very moist column and modest instability, but heavy rainfall
could still occur, especially over the eastern most zones this
afternoon/evening where the best lift is indicated, and enough
instability present to support higher rainfall rates.  Still
think 2-4 inch amounts could occur in these areas, hence the Flash
Flood Watch remaining in effect for Scurry, Mitchell, Glasscock,
Upton, Reagan, Pecos, Terrell and Brewster counties.

Over the rest of the forecast area, there could still be heavy
rainfall, but it appears it will be much more spotty, and something
which can be covered with Areal Flood Advisories instead.  Therefore,
have decided to trim Gaines, Dawson, Borden, Andrews, Martin,
Howard, Winkler, Ector, Midland, Ward and Crane from the Flash
Flood Watch.  Expect low level upslope flow and isentropic
upglide over the front to increase but a more stable atmosphere
will likely keep rainfall rates lower and any higher rainfall
totals will occur over a longer duration.  Lastly, the High Wind
Warning will remain in effect for Guadalupe Pass from this
afternoon through Monday morning.  Model guidance has toned down
the outlandish wind speeds displayed there prior, and have also
lowered near Wind Advisory northeast winds (30-40 mph) over the
Permian Basin tonight too.

Rain chances will continue on Monday, and if all of the above comes
about, the Flash Flood Watch may have to be extended, especially
for the Lower Trans Pecos.  Will forego extension of the Watch at
this time so as to see how much actually falls in these areas
before committing to an extension.  High temperatures will be
well below normal along and south of Interstate 20, and over the
higher terrain of SE NM and west Texas Monday. Locations further
north and east could see a bit more sun, so they won`t be quite as
cool.  A drying and warming trend will set in Tuesday and
Wednesday, with readings expected to be near normal into next
weekend.  There could be an uptick in rain chances Thursday/
Friday, but lack of agreement will prevent addition of chance
PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     54  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Carlsbad                       56  61  53  68 /  30  30  30  10
Dryden                         63  68  57  70 /  60  60  60  30
Fort Stockton                  57  61  52  67 /  60  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  52  45  61 /  60  60  30  10
Hobbs                          54  60  51  69 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          55  59  50  65 /  50  50  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           56  61  52  70 /  60  30  10  10
Odessa                         55  60  53  70 /  60  30  10  10
Wink                           58  61  53  69 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Big Bend Area-
     Glasscock-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until noon MDT Monday for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/67
157
FXUS64 KMAF 251744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area for the
next 24 hours with MAF and FST having the best chances. Winds will
remain mostly out of the northeast with winds getting elevated and
gusty later this afternoon. Gusts will likely diminish sometime
this evening.  Low ceilings will be possible at most terminals
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
649
FXUS64 KMAF 251744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area for the
next 24 hours with MAF and FST having the best chances. Winds will
remain mostly out of the northeast with winds getting elevated and
gusty later this afternoon. Gusts will likely diminish sometime
this evening.  Low ceilings will be possible at most terminals
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
086
FXUS64 KMAF 251744
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area for the
next 24 hours with MAF and FST having the best chances. Winds will
remain mostly out of the northeast with winds getting elevated and
gusty later this afternoon. Gusts will likely diminish sometime
this evening.  Low ceilings will be possible at most terminals
through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
419
FXUS64 KMAF 251515
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1015 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to lower PoPs this morning and adjust high temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Have adjusted PoPs downward over most of the forecast area for the
rest of the morning, as a large area of convection to the southeast
of the Lower Trans Pecos has effectively cutoff moist low level
inflow into West Texas.  Expect the complex of storms to the
southeast to become a little less pronounced this afternoon, and
with isentropic upglide over southward moving cold front, showers
and thunderstorms are still expected to develop over the area.  The
threat for heavy rainfall continues over the eastern half of the
forecast area, so will leave the Flash Flood Watch in effect.
Adjusted high temperatures downward over the Lower Trans Pecos, but
raised highs over much of the rest of the area.  An update will
follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning, with an axis
of showers/thunderstorms to the east of area terminals. Storms are
expected to develop westward this morning, with brief MVFR
conditions in heavy rain possible. A cold front will move through
the area late morning/early afternoon, resulting in widespread
storm development with MVFR and potentially IFR conditions in
heavy rain at area terminals. Winds behind the front will back to
the N/NE with gusts up to 25-35KT, with little if any improvement
expected through 26/12Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       69  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         73  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  71  57  61  52 /  90 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          68  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           75  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
727
FXUS64 KMAF 251130
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning, with an axis
of showers/thunderstorms to the east of area terminals. Storms are
expected to develop westward this morning, with brief MVFR
conditions in heavy rain possible. A cold front will move through
the area late morning/early afternoon, resulting in widespread
storm development with MVFR and potentially IFR conditions in
heavy rain at area terminals. Winds behind the front will back to
the N/NE with gusts up to 25-35KT, with little if any improvement
expected through 26/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       68  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         77  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  70  57  61  52 / 100 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          66  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           72  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
323
FXUS64 KMAF 250846
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
346 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Radar is showing a large axis of precip from OK extending sw into
the Concho Valley/E PB. Precip is co-located within rich mid level
theta-e ridge axis (~ +2 standard deviations). Meanwhile a cold
front is located from near ATS-near AMA and points newd with drier
air noted in wake of the boundary. Water vapor shows upper low
INVOF SW NM which is forecast to deepen and back the mid level
flow, once the flow starts to back precip will start to redevelop
farther w. A key feature is the 7h low and assocd sharp trof that
will extend ne across the Lower Trans Pecos and PB after 12Z. WAA
and isentropic lift all around 7h will increase sharply and lift
seen on isentropic surfaces 310-315K will increase resulting in
the expansion of precip coverage. Most likely precip will remain
confined within the current watch area, but could reach into parts
of SE NM after 18Z. The cold front will apparently have the best
push across SE NM into the Upper Trans Pecos this AM, but it will
still be a focus for development across the PB. The prolonged
presence of large scale lift and abundance of moisture certainly
does keep concerns high wrt very heavy rain/flash flooding. Cold
front and mstr transport along the front does support precip into
the Sunday night and possibly Monday, but still the PB and Lower
Trans Pecos are the favored areas with increasing upper divergence
as upper low retrogrades into Mon AM. We plan no changes to the
flash flood watch with this issuance. Storm total precip of 4-6
inches are possible across parts of the PB and Lower Trans Pecos.
Precip chances will start to wane by Mon night, especially Tue.
Temperatures will be well below normal Today thru Tue. NE winds
increase mostly after 18Z today and remain up (windy) thru at
least mid morning Mon so there will be a definite cool feel in the
air. The high wind warning for GDP Pass still looks good and we
made no changes. High temperatures will be back in the 80s by Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  54  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Carlsbad                       68  56  61  53 /  50  70  60  20
Dryden                         77  63  68  57 / 100 100  80  50
Fort Stockton                  70  57  61  52 / 100 100  80  40
Guadalupe Pass                 64  48  52  45 /  50  70  40  30
Hobbs                          66  54  60  51 /  60  60  50  20
Marfa                          67  55  59  50 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           72  56  61  52 /  90  90  70  20
Odessa                         75  55  60  53 /  90  90  70  20
Wink                           75  58  61  53 /  90  90  70  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon MDT Monday
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
626
FXUS64 KMAF 250556
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1256 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing just east of area terminals at
issuance. Thunderstorms could affect INK, MAF, and FST early in
the period, with gusty wind and MVFR visibility in heavy rain
possible. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
Sunday morning across TX terminals, gradually developing westward
to affect HOB and CNM. A cold front will begin to move through the
area late Sunday morning, accompanied by a north/northeast wind
shift with gusts to 30-35kt possible. Prevailing MVFR conditions
in heavy rain are expected thereafter, with IFR conditions
possible, especially during the afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas appear set for heavy rainfall
event starting tonight and lasting into Monday, in addition to much
cooler temperatures.  A potent shortwave trough is currently
ejecting northeastward into the northern U.S. Plains early this
afternoon.  Surface frontogenesis will occur in the wake of this
upper trough and send a cold front southward in the lee of the
Rockies.  The front looks to move into the forecast area Sunday
afternoon with much cooler temperatures behind it.  A shortwave
trough will drop south into the base of the longwave trough over the
western CONUS and form a cutoff low over northern New Mexico by
25/12Z.  This will set the stage for widespread rainfall over the
forecast area starting tonight, and lasting into Monday morning.

A surface trough bisected West Texas from north to south this
afternoon.  A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
on it so far, but expect more to form through max heating as lift
increases ahead of a shortwave trough translating over New Mexico
ahead of the large upper trough to the west.  Mid level support will
be enhanced further by the entrance region of a 80kt h25 jet over
New Mexico, with thunderstorms flourishing along and east of the
surface trough tonight, especially as an h85 LLJ strengthens over
the Permian Basin, provides moist inflow and destabilizes the
atmosphere.  Instability will top out around 1200-1500 J/Kg this
afternoon/early evening, but mid level lapse rates will be near
moist adiabatic and 0 to 6Km Bulk Shear will be 25 to 30kt at best.
Therefore, some of these storms could be strong, with a couple of
severe storms not out of the question.  Strong winds, hail, heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will be the main threats.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as height
falls to the east of the cutoff low backs/increases low level winds.
PWATS will rise to around 1.50 west Sunday afternoon to 1.75 east,
the latter being 2 S.D. above normal, and a record amount of
moisture climatologically for 25 September.  Large scale lift will
also increase over the area tonight/Sunday as the flow aloft becomes
more difluent, a series of shortwave troughs translate northward
around the eastern periphery of the upper low, upper lift is
enhanced by the presence of the RRQ of the h25 jet still over New
Mexico, and isentropic upglide increases along and behind the cold
front Sunday afternoon.  Unidirectional flow aloft over the region
could result in thunderstorms training over the same areas.
Considering some locations could see 3-5 inches of rainfall, will
continue the current Flash Flood Watch.  However, some models
retrograde the upper low Sunday which shifts the emphasis for heavy
rainfall farther west.  Will hold off issuing a Flash Flood Watch
farther west though and wait to see whether trends hold on later
model runs.  The heavy rainfall could also result in river flooding
along the Colorado and Rio Grande starting tonight and lasting into
Monday, if not a little beyond.  The threat of heavy rainfall will
persist Monday morning, but will leave the ending time of the Flash
Flood Watch at 26/12Z Monday for now.  The only other threat during
the next couple of days will be strong winds through Guadalupe Pass
behind the front. Mos guidance numbers look absurd with 80kt
sustained Sunday night, but 35 to 50kt appears to be within the
realm of possibility. Therefore, will upgrade the High Wind Watch to
a High Wind Warning running from 300 pm MDT Sunday to Noon MDT
Monday.

The cutoff low is expected to retrograde to southern California by
Tuesday afternoon, and then translates northeastward ahead of
another forming upper trough off the western CONUS.  So good rain
chances will persist Monday, which appears to be the coolest day
upcoming, with a weak upper ridge over the region thereafter
decreasing rain chances.  Temperatures will remain below normal
Tuesday and Wednesday, then rise closer to normal Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  59  51  71 /  80  70  20  10
Carlsbad                       55  60  52  68 /  80  60  20  10
Dryden                         66  67  56  70 /  90  70  50  30
Fort Stockton                  60  60  52  66 /  90  70  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 48  51  45  60 /  90  60  30  20
Hobbs                          51  58  49  69 /  70  50  20  10
Marfa                          52  60  45  63 /  70  60  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           56  60  51  71 /  90  70  20  10
Odessa                         55  59  51  70 /  90  70  20  10
Wink                           60  60  52  70 /  90  70  30  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Sunday to noon MDT Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
829
FXUS64 KMAF 242310
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals tonight. However, a strong upper
level disturbance is expected to generate scattered thunderstorms
overnight across mainly west Texas. Will place tempo groups for
MVFR visibility in thunderstorms at the west Texas terminals.
By early to mid Sunday morning a cold front will result in a wind
shift to the north and northeast with prevailing MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms expected at the west Texas and majority of
southeast New Mexico terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas appear set for heavy rainfall
event starting tonight and lasting into Monday, in addition to much
cooler temperatures.  A potent shortwave trough is currently
ejecting northeastward into the northern U.S. Plains early this
afternoon.  Surface frontogenesis will occur in the wake of this
upper trough and send a cold front southward in the lee of the
Rockies.  The front looks to move into the forecast area Sunday
afternoon with much cooler temperatures behind it.  A shortwave
trough will drop south into the base of the longwave trough over the
western CONUS and form a cutoff low over northern New Mexico by
25/12Z.  This will set the stage for widespread rainfall over the
forecast area starting tonight, and lasting into Monday morning.

A surface trough bisected West Texas from north to south this
afternoon.  A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
on it so far, but expect more to form through max heating as lift
increases ahead of a shortwave trough translating over New Mexico
ahead of the large upper trough to the west.  Mid level support will
be enhanced further by the entrance region of a 80kt h25 jet over
New Mexico, with thunderstorms flourishing along and east of the
surface trough tonight, especially as an h85 LLJ strengthens over
the Permian Basin, provides moist inflow and destabilizes the
atmosphere.  Instability will top out around 1200-1500 J/Kg this
afternoon/early evening, but mid level lapse rates will be near
moist adiabatic and 0 to 6Km Bulk Shear will be 25 to 30kt at best.
Therefore, some of these storms could be strong, with a couple of
severe storms not out of the question.  Strong winds, hail, heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will be the main threats.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as height
falls to the east of the cutoff low backs/increases low level winds.
PWATS will rise to around 1.50 west Sunday afternoon to 1.75 east,
the latter being 2 S.D. above normal, and a record amount of
moisture climatologically for 25 September.  Large scale lift will
also increase over the area tonight/Sunday as the flow aloft becomes
more difluent, a series of shortwave troughs translate northward
around the eastern periphery of the upper low, upper lift is
enhanced by the presence of the RRQ of the h25 jet still over New
Mexico, and isentropic upglide increases along and behind the cold
front Sunday afternoon.  Unidirectional flow aloft over the region
could result in thunderstorms training over the same areas.
Considering some locations could see 3-5 inches of rainfall, will
continue the current Flash Flood Watch.  However, some models
retrograde the upper low Sunday which shifts the emphasis for heavy
rainfall farther west.  Will hold off issuing a Flash Flood Watch
farther west though and wait to see whether trends hold on later
model runs.  The heavy rainfall could also result in river flooding
along the Colorado and Rio Grande starting tonight and lasting into
Monday, if not a little beyond.  The threat of heavy rainfall will
persist Monday morning, but will leave the ending time of the Flash
Flood Watch at 26/12Z Monday for now.  The only other threat during
the next couple of days will be strong winds through Guadalupe Pass
behind the front. Mos guidance numbers look absurd with 80kt
sustained Sunday night, but 35 to 50kt appears to be within the
realm of possibility. Therefore, will upgrade the High Wind Watch to
a High Wind Warning running from 300 pm MDT Sunday to Noon MDT
Monday.

The cutoff low is expected to retrograde to southern California by
Tuesday afternoon, and then translates northeastward ahead of
another forming upper trough off the western CONUS.  So good rain
chances will persist Monday, which appears to be the coolest day
upcoming, with a weak upper ridge over the region thereafter
decreasing rain chances.  Temperatures will remain below normal
Tuesday and Wednesday, then rise closer to normal Thursday through
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  73  55  59 /  80  90  80  70
Carlsbad                       64  71  55  60 /  20  90  80  60
Dryden                         73  78  66  67 /  70 100  90  70
Fort Stockton                  70  72  60  60 /  70 100  90  70
Guadalupe Pass                 62  64  48  51 /  20  90  90  60
Hobbs                          64  69  51  58 /  30  80  70  50
Marfa                          62  69  52  60 /  60  90  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           69  73  56  60 /  70 100  90  70
Odessa                         68  73  55  59 /  70 100  90  70
Wink                           70  75  60  58 /  50 100  90  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-
     Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Sunday to noon MDT Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/67
526
FXUS64 KMAF 241855
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
155 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas appear set for heavy rainfall
event starting tonight and lasting into Monday, in addition to much
cooler temperatures.  A potent shortwave trough is currently
ejecting northeastward into the northern U.S. Plains early this
afternoon.  Surface frontogenesis will occur in the wake of this
upper trough and send a cold front southward in the lee of the
Rockies.  The front looks to move into the forecast area Sunday
afternoon with much cooler temperatures behind it.  A shortwave
trough will drop south into the base of the longwave trough over the
western CONUS and form a cutoff low over northern New Mexico by
25/12Z.  This will set the stage for widespread rainfall over the
forecast area starting tonight, and lasting into Monday morning.

A surface trough bisected West Texas from north to south this
afternoon.  A few showers and thunderstorms have already developed
on it so far, but expect more to form through max heating as lift
increases ahead of a shortwave trough translating over New Mexico
ahead of the large upper trough to the west.  Mid level support will
be enhanced further by the entrance region of a 80kt h25 jet over
New Mexico, with thunderstorms flourishing along and east of the
surface trough tonight, especially as an h85 LLJ strengthens over
the Permian Basin, provides moist inflow and destabilizes the
atmosphere.  Instability will top out around 1200-1500 J/Kg this
afternoon/early evening, but mid level lapse rates will be near
moist adiabatic and 0 to 6Km Bulk Shear will be 25 to 30kt at best.
Therefore, some of these storms could be strong, with a couple of
severe storms not out of the question.  Strong winds, hail, heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning strikes will be the main threats.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as height
falls to the east of the cutoff low backs/increases low level winds.
PWATS will rise to around 1.50 west Sunday afternoon to 1.75 east,
the latter being 2 S.D. above normal, and a record amount of
moisture climatologically for 25 September.  Large scale lift will
also increase over the area tonight/Sunday as the flow aloft becomes
more difluent, a series of shortwave troughs translate northward
around the eastern periphery of the upper low, upper lift is
enhanced by the presence of the RRQ of the h25 jet still over New
Mexico, and isentropic upglide increases along and behind the cold
front Sunday afternoon.  Unidirectional flow aloft over the region
could result in thunderstorms training over the same areas.
Considering some locations could see 3-5 inches of rainfall, will
continue the current Flash Flood Watch.  However, some models
retrograde the upper low Sunday which shifts the emphasis for heavy
rainfall farther west.  Will hold off issuing a Flash Flood Watch
farther west though and wait to see whether trends hold on later
model runs.  The heavy rainfall could also result in river flooding
along the Colorado and Rio Grande starting tonight and lasting into
Monday, if not a little beyond.  The threat of heavy rainfall will
persist Monday morning, but will leave the ending time of the Flash
Flood Watch at 26/12Z Monday for now.  The only other threat during
the next couple of days will be strong winds through Guadalupe Pass
behind the front. Mos guidance numbers look absurd with 80kt
sustained Sunday night, but 35 to 50kt appears to be within the
realm of possibility. Therefore, will upgrade the High Wind Watch to
a High Wind Warning running from 300 pm MDT Sunday to Noon MDT
Monday.

The cutoff low is expected to retrograde to southern California by
Tuesday afternoon, and then translates northeastward ahead of
another forming upper trough off the western CONUS.  So good rain
chances will persist Monday, which appears to be the coolest day
upcoming, with a weak upper ridge over the region thereafter
decreasing rain chances.  Temperatures will remain below normal
Tuesday and Wednesday, then rise closer to normal Thursday through
Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  73  55  59 /  80  90  80  70
Carlsbad                       64  71  55  60 /  20  90  80  60
Dryden                         73  78  66  67 /  70 100  90  70
Fort Stockton                  70  72  60  60 /  70 100  90  70
Guadalupe Pass                 62  64  48  51 /  20  90  90  60
Hobbs                          64  69  51  58 /  30  80  70  50
Marfa                          62  69  52  60 /  60  90  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           69  73  56  60 /  70 100  90  70
Odessa                         68  73  55  59 /  70 100  90  70
Wink                           70  75  60  58 /  50 100  90  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Sunday to noon MDT Monday for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

80/67
876
FXUS64 KMAF 241735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Chances of convection increase this evening into
tonight and then especially Sunday morning into the afternoon
hours. Low ceilings are expected to start developing around 12z
then become more widespread by 18z. Winds will mostly be light out
of the south except at MAF and FST where elevated winds are
possible this afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

While thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the area
this afternoon, the main focus will be the potential for
widespread heavy rain and flash flooding tonight through Monday
morning, and the arrival of much cooler, well below normal
temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Per water vapor imagery, the upper ridge that has dominated the
past several days has shifted eastward, with a plume of
subtropical moisture advecting over the region in increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a potent upper trough. As the
trough begins to transition into a closed low that will lift
northeastward into the Northern Plains today, and another low
progged to develop and settle just south of the US/Mexico border
in Chihuahua on Sunday, the region will be under the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet rounding the base of the elongated
trough. As height falls overspread the region, increasing moisture
and upper support will yield increasing storm chances today over
far southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin
southwestward to the Big Bend Area and points east. Some storms
this afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, with
gusty winds over 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats. Small hail, and frequent lightning could also accompany
storms that develop. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than
yesterday due to increasing moisture and cloud cover, though still
above normal. However, it looks to be our last day of above normal
temperatures for awhile.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as the
low cuts off at the base of the elongated trough and enhances
moist upslope flow over the region. Precipitable water values will
increase to nearly 1.75 inches across the Permian Basin, Lower
Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area by Sunday morning, roughly 2
standard deviations above normal, and could potentially be a new
record high precipitable water amount for September 25th. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage areawide overnight due
to continued upper support from the trough as well as the 300mb
jet, with the best chance for storms across the eastern half of
the forecast area. Given the anomalously high precipitable water
values, heavy rainfall is a significant concern with storms that
develop, as slow moving, training storms will be possible.
Widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue on Sunday,
with additional support from a strong cold front that will move
south through the region during the day. Despite the strong front,
severe weather is not anticipated, as model soundings are largely
moist adiabatic and lapse rates drop with the passage of the
front. However, the heavy rain threat will continue, and persist
into Sunday night, as continued upslope flow and isentropic
upglide will act facilitate continued storm development. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches through Monday morning are not unlikely
across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area.
Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from this evening
through Monday morning. This watch may need to be expanded
westward to include the Upper Trans Pecos and Southeast New
Mexico, as heavy rain chances look to develop westward on Sunday,
but will leave this to later shifts to decide.

Sunday will be significantly cooler due to the combination of cold
air advection behind the front, diabatic cooling, and cloud
cover, with highs potentially 15 degrees cooler than today, and
nearly 10 degrees below normal. In the wake of the front, winds
will become gusty out of the northeast, with the strongest winds
of 45 to 55 MPH sustained expected through Guadalupe Pass. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for that area from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning, please see the Watch product for details.

Cold advection behind the front will continue into Monday, with
high temperatures expected to only range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s for all but the Rio Grande Valley, where middle 70s are
possible. While rain chances will continue into Monday, the heavy
rain threat will diminish, with precipitation chances further
decreasing from north to south on Tuesday. The well below normal
temperatures will stick around through midweek next week, with a
gradual warming trend expected to end the week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  68  72  54 /  60  80  90  80
Carlsbad                       85  62  70  55 /  10  20  60  50
Dryden                         89  71  77  66 /  30  70  90  70
Fort Stockton                  89  67  74  60 /  40  70  90  80
Guadalupe Pass                 78  60  64  48 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          83  61  69  55 /  30  30  70  50
Marfa                          83  59  69  53 /  50  60  80  50
Midland Intl Airport           87  66  72  55 /  50  70  90  80
Odessa                         86  66  72  54 /  50  70  90  70
Wink                           90  67  73  60 /  30  50  80  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
882
FXUS64 KMAF 241735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Chances of convection increase this evening into
tonight and then especially Sunday morning into the afternoon
hours. Low ceilings are expected to start developing around 12z
then become more widespread by 18z. Winds will mostly be light out
of the south except at MAF and FST where elevated winds are
possible this afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

While thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the area
this afternoon, the main focus will be the potential for
widespread heavy rain and flash flooding tonight through Monday
morning, and the arrival of much cooler, well below normal
temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Per water vapor imagery, the upper ridge that has dominated the
past several days has shifted eastward, with a plume of
subtropical moisture advecting over the region in increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a potent upper trough. As the
trough begins to transition into a closed low that will lift
northeastward into the Northern Plains today, and another low
progged to develop and settle just south of the US/Mexico border
in Chihuahua on Sunday, the region will be under the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet rounding the base of the elongated
trough. As height falls overspread the region, increasing moisture
and upper support will yield increasing storm chances today over
far southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin
southwestward to the Big Bend Area and points east. Some storms
this afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, with
gusty winds over 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats. Small hail, and frequent lightning could also accompany
storms that develop. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than
yesterday due to increasing moisture and cloud cover, though still
above normal. However, it looks to be our last day of above normal
temperatures for awhile.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as the
low cuts off at the base of the elongated trough and enhances
moist upslope flow over the region. Precipitable water values will
increase to nearly 1.75 inches across the Permian Basin, Lower
Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area by Sunday morning, roughly 2
standard deviations above normal, and could potentially be a new
record high precipitable water amount for September 25th. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage areawide overnight due
to continued upper support from the trough as well as the 300mb
jet, with the best chance for storms across the eastern half of
the forecast area. Given the anomalously high precipitable water
values, heavy rainfall is a significant concern with storms that
develop, as slow moving, training storms will be possible.
Widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue on Sunday,
with additional support from a strong cold front that will move
south through the region during the day. Despite the strong front,
severe weather is not anticipated, as model soundings are largely
moist adiabatic and lapse rates drop with the passage of the
front. However, the heavy rain threat will continue, and persist
into Sunday night, as continued upslope flow and isentropic
upglide will act facilitate continued storm development. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches through Monday morning are not unlikely
across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area.
Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from this evening
through Monday morning. This watch may need to be expanded
westward to include the Upper Trans Pecos and Southeast New
Mexico, as heavy rain chances look to develop westward on Sunday,
but will leave this to later shifts to decide.

Sunday will be significantly cooler due to the combination of cold
air advection behind the front, diabatic cooling, and cloud
cover, with highs potentially 15 degrees cooler than today, and
nearly 10 degrees below normal. In the wake of the front, winds
will become gusty out of the northeast, with the strongest winds
of 45 to 55 MPH sustained expected through Guadalupe Pass. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for that area from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning, please see the Watch product for details.

Cold advection behind the front will continue into Monday, with
high temperatures expected to only range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s for all but the Rio Grande Valley, where middle 70s are
possible. While rain chances will continue into Monday, the heavy
rain threat will diminish, with precipitation chances further
decreasing from north to south on Tuesday. The well below normal
temperatures will stick around through midweek next week, with a
gradual warming trend expected to end the week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  68  72  54 /  60  80  90  80
Carlsbad                       85  62  70  55 /  10  20  60  50
Dryden                         89  71  77  66 /  30  70  90  70
Fort Stockton                  89  67  74  60 /  40  70  90  80
Guadalupe Pass                 78  60  64  48 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          83  61  69  55 /  30  30  70  50
Marfa                          83  59  69  53 /  50  60  80  50
Midland Intl Airport           87  66  72  55 /  50  70  90  80
Odessa                         86  66  72  54 /  50  70  90  70
Wink                           90  67  73  60 /  30  50  80  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
     morning for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
732
FXUS64 KMAF 241117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few -SHRA are in the FST area and the mid cloud deck has
expanded, but is e of CNM. Will continue to keep MVFR CIGS out of
forecast despite a 30-40kt LLJ. Wind will increase around 15Z as
decaying LLJ mixes, especially FST/MAF. Otherwise the more
noticeable wx changes are not expected until near the end of forecast
period. Close enough to include PROB30 at MAF, FST, INK. PEQ and
even prevailing -TSRA starting at 09Z for MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

While thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the area
this afternoon, the main focus will be the potential for
widespread heavy rain and flash flooding tonight through Monday
morning, and the arrival of much cooler, well below normal
temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Per water vapor imagery, the upper ridge that has dominated the
past several days has shifted eastward, with a plume of
subtropical moisture advecting over the region in increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a potent upper trough. As the
trough begins to transition into a closed low that will lift
northeastward into the Northern Plains today, and another low
progged to develop and settle just south of the US/Mexico border
in Chihuahua on Sunday, the region will be under the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet rounding the base of the elongated
trough. As height falls overspread the region, increasing moisture
and upper support will yield increasing storm chances today over
far southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin
southwestward to the Big Bend Area and points east. Some storms
this afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, with
gusty winds over 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats. Small hail, and frequent lightning could also accompany
storms that develop. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than
yesterday due to increasing moisture and cloud cover, though still
above normal. However, it looks to be our last day of above normal
temperatures for awhile.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as the
low cuts off at the base of the elongated trough and enhances
moist upslope flow over the region. Precipitable water values will
increase to nearly 1.75 inches across the Permian Basin, Lower
Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area by Sunday morning, roughly 2
standard deviations above normal, and could potentially be a new
record high precipitable water amount for September 25th. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage areawide overnight due
to continued upper support from the trough as well as the 300mb
jet, with the best chance for storms across the eastern half of
the forecast area. Given the anomalously high precipitable water
values, heavy rainfall is a significant concern with storms that
develop, as slow moving, training storms will be possible.
Widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue on Sunday,
with additional support from a strong cold front that will move
south through the region during the day. Despite the strong front,
severe weather is not anticipated, as model soundings are largely
moist adiabatic and lapse rates drop with the passage of the
front. However, the heavy rain threat will continue, and persist
into Sunday night, as continued upslope flow and isentropic
upglide will act facilitate continued storm development. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches through Monday morning are not unlikely
across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area.
Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from this evening
through Monday morning. This watch may need to be expanded
westward to include the Upper Trans Pecos and Southeast New
Mexico, as heavy rain chances look to develop westward on Sunday,
but will leave this to later shifts to decide.

Sunday will be significantly cooler due to the combination of cold
air advection behind the front, diabatic cooling, and cloud
cover, with highs potentially 15 degrees cooler than today, and
nearly 10 degrees below normal. In the wake of the front, winds
will become gusty out of the northeast, with the strongest winds
of 45 to 55 MPH sustained expected through Guadalupe Pass. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for that area from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning, please see the Watch product for details.

Cold advection behind the front will continue into Monday, with
high temperatures expected to only range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s for all but the Rio Grande Valley, where middle 70s are
possible. While rain chances will continue into Monday, the heavy
rain threat will diminish, with precipitation chances further
decreasing from north to south on Tuesday. The well below normal
temperatures will stick around through midweek next week, with a
gradual warming trend expected to end the week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  68  72  54 /  60  80  90  80
Carlsbad                       85  62  70  55 /  10  20  60  50
Dryden                         89  71  77  66 /  30  70  90  70
Fort Stockton                  89  67  74  60 /  40  70  90  80
Guadalupe Pass                 78  60  64  48 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          83  61  69  55 /  30  30  70  50
Marfa                          83  59  69  53 /  50  60  80  50
Midland Intl Airport           87  66  72  55 /  50  70  90  80
Odessa                         86  66  72  54 /  50  70  90  70
Wink                           90  67  73  60 /  30  50  80  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
897
FXUS64 KMAF 240926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
426 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

While thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the area
this afternoon, the main focus will be the potential for
widespread heavy rain and flash flooding tonight through Monday
morning, and the arrival of much cooler, well below normal
temperatures by the end of the weekend into early next week.

Per water vapor imagery, the upper ridge that has dominated the
past several days has shifted eastward, with a plume of
subtropical moisture advecting over the region in increasing
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a potent upper trough. As the
trough begins to transition into a closed low that will lift
northeastward into the Northern Plains today, and another low
progged to develop and settle just south of the US/Mexico border
in Chihuahua on Sunday, the region will be under the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet rounding the base of the elongated
trough. As height falls overspread the region, increasing moisture
and upper support will yield increasing storm chances today over
far southeast New Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin
southwestward to the Big Bend Area and points east. Some storms
this afternoon could become strong to marginally severe, with
gusty winds over 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall the primary
threats. Small hail, and frequent lightning could also accompany
storms that develop. Temperatures today will be a bit cooler than
yesterday due to increasing moisture and cloud cover, though still
above normal. However, it looks to be our last day of above normal
temperatures for awhile.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area tonight as the
low cuts off at the base of the elongated trough and enhances
moist upslope flow over the region. Precipitable water values will
increase to nearly 1.75 inches across the Permian Basin, Lower
Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area by Sunday morning, roughly 2
standard deviations above normal, and could potentially be a new
record high precipitable water amount for September 25th. Showers
and thunderstorms will increase in coverage areawide overnight due
to continued upper support from the trough as well as the 300mb
jet, with the best chance for storms across the eastern half of
the forecast area. Given the anomalously high precipitable water
values, heavy rainfall is a significant concern with storms that
develop, as slow moving, training storms will be possible.
Widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue on Sunday,
with additional support from a strong cold front that will move
south through the region during the day. Despite the strong front,
severe weather is not anticipated, as model soundings are largely
moist adiabatic and lapse rates drop with the passage of the
front. However, the heavy rain threat will continue, and persist
into Sunday night, as continued upslope flow and isentropic
upglide will act facilitate continued storm development. Rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches through Monday morning are not unlikely
across the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend Area.
Thus, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from this evening
through Monday morning. This watch may need to be expanded
westward to include the Upper Trans Pecos and Southeast New
Mexico, as heavy rain chances look to develop westward on Sunday,
but will leave this to later shifts to decide.

Sunday will be significantly cooler due to the combination of cold
air advection behind the front, diabatic cooling, and cloud
cover, with highs potentially 15 degrees cooler than today, and
nearly 10 degrees below normal. In the wake of the front, winds
will become gusty out of the northeast, with the strongest winds
of 45 to 55 MPH sustained expected through Guadalupe Pass. A High
Wind Watch has been issued for that area from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning, please see the Watch product for details.

Cold advection behind the front will continue into Monday, with
high temperatures expected to only range from the middle 50s to
middle 60s for all but the Rio Grande Valley, where middle 70s are
possible. While rain chances will continue into Monday, the heavy
rain threat will diminish, with precipitation chances further
decreasing from north to south on Tuesday. The well below normal
temperatures will stick around through midweek next week, with a
gradual warming trend expected to end the week, with temperatures
returning to near normal values by Thursday/Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     88  68  72  54 /  60  80  90  80
Carlsbad                       85  62  70  55 /  10  20  60  50
Dryden                         89  71  77  66 /  30  70  90  70
Fort Stockton                  89  67  74  60 /  40  70  90  80
Guadalupe Pass                 78  60  64  48 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          83  61  69  55 /  30  30  70  50
Marfa                          83  59  69  53 /  50  60  80  50
Midland Intl Airport           87  66  72  55 /  50  70  90  80
Odessa                         86  66  72  54 /  50  70  90  70
Wink                           90  67  73  60 /  30  50  80  70

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

49/84
914
FXUS64 KMAF 240532
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few -SHRA are across the west, mostly dissipating. A mid cloud deck
from SE NM to around Presidio was slowly moving e-ne with clouds mostly
BKN120. For now have kept MVFR CIGS out of forecast and a developing
30-40kt LLJ will keep wind up 10-15kt at most places, especially
FST/MAF. Otherwise the more noticeable wx changes are not expected
until after this forecast period including low CIGS, wind shift
with front and high end PoPs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  69  70  53 /  60  70  90  90
Carlsbad                       87  63  69  58 /  10  20  60  40
Dryden                         92  72  75  64 /  30  70  90  50
Fort Stockton                  90  68  70  58 /  40  60  90  50
Guadalupe Pass                 77  60  62  50 /  10  20  60  60
Hobbs                          84  63  68  54 /  30  30  70  40
Marfa                          83  61  65  57 /  50  50  70  40
Midland Intl Airport           88  68  70  56 /  50  70  90  70
Odessa                         88  67  70  54 /  50  70  90  60
Wink                           91  68  72  58 /  30  40  80  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
803
FXUS64 KMAF 232319
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the majority of
the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. The exception
is KMAF where tempo MVFR ceilings are expected in the 13z to 16z
Saturday timeframe. An upper level disturbance will combine with
a surface trough to produce scattered thunderstorms mainly across
west Texas near the end of the TAF period later Saturday afternoon.
Will likely address in more detail in the next issuance. Mainly
south to southeast winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24
hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Some big changes are on the way, but just how much change will
depend on the formation and subsequent movement of a cutoff low.
Presently, the evolution is for a cutoff low over the Great Basin
will open a bit and translate northeast over the Northern Plains
while another short wave trough develops to its south.  This trough
then evolves into a closed upper low over New Mexico.  Given the
uncertainty inherent with forecasting closed upper features, further
adjustments to the forecast are likely.  However, confidence is high
that much cooler temperatures along with heavy rainfall are in the
cards for Sunday, with well below normal temperatures persisting
through the early part of next week.

As it stands now, an upper level ridge, which has been over the
Southern Plains for several days, will be shunted eastward in the
next 24-36 hours as a large upper low currently over the Great Basin
eases northeastward.  A short wave trough within this upper low will
eject northeastward over the central Rockies and out over the Northern
Plains Saturday afternoon.  In response to increasing surface
frontogenesis associated with the passing of the aforementioned short
wave trough over the Northern Plains, a cold front will develop and move
south toward the southern High Plains, with colder air hugging the eastern
slopes of the Rockies down to northeastern New Mexico by Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, additional short wave energy will drop down behind the
Northern Plains system and close off over southern New Mexico/northern
Chihuahua by Sunday morning.  A surface low will develop over the Big
Bend, drawing the colder air deeper over much of west Texas and all of
southeastern New Mexico Sunday afternoon.  Surface cooling will be
augmented further as extensive cloudiness will retard insolation and
widespread precipitation will lead to substantial wet-bulb cooling of
the column.

Although models diverge in their handling of the upper low thereafter,
cooler conditions are expected to prevail over the region through at
least mid next week.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday could be
20 to 25 degrees below normal, if not more!  Rain chances will increase
over southeastern New Mexico and west Texas Saturday, then stay in the
forecast through at least next Wednesday.  See details below.

For this afternoon and tonight, a surface trough over New Mexico
will develop/move eastward into the forecast area this afternoon as
the above mentioned initial short wave trough aids in lowering
heights over the region.  We will add isolated thunderstorms over the
western half of the CWA this afternoon due to a minor short wave
trough moving north from Coahuila.  There does not appear to
be much mid level support farther west near the surface trough, but
that will change overnight as a shortwave trough sweeps east/
northeastward over New Mexico.  In addition, deep layer lift
associated with the right rear quadrant of an 80kt jet at 250 hPa may
support isolated thunderstorms along the surface trough overnight.
A few storms could be strong with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall;
however, effective shear is generally less than 25kt, instability is
fairly modest, and lapse rates are close to moist adiabatic.

On Saturday, the upper trough over the west will deepen as additional
short wave energy drops into the base of the long wave trough over New
Mexico.  As a result, lift will increase over the area and as such
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and east of the surface
trough stretching southwest/northeast across the CWA.  Forecast SBCAPE
will rise to at least 1000-1500 J/Kg, but lapse rates will continue to
be near moist adiabatic and 0 to 6km shear will generally be 25kt or
less.  Therefore, we think a few strong storms could develop, perhaps
reaching severe levels, with gusty winds over 50 mph, large hail and
locally heavy rainfall.  We will include this potential for strong to
severe convection in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Sunday, the cutoff low is expected to reside over southern New
Mexico/northern Chihuahua.  With difluent flow aloft and deep layer
lift further enhanced beneath the right rear quadrant of an 80kt jet
at 250 hPa, isentropic upglide will increase above the frontal surface.
This will in turn tap a subtropical moisture feed and increase deep
layer moisture, a critical factor in heavy rain forecasting.  By Sunday
morning, precipitable water values will rise to between 1.25 and 1.50
inches, or close to the 90th percentile climatologically.  We expect
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday morning along
the southward-moving cold front, with signals indicating a good chance
of heavy rainfall.  Behind the front, gap winds through Guadalupe Pass
could increase to 40 to 50 mph sustained.  As stated earlier, surface
cold air advection, low insolation, and diabatic cooling of the column
behind the front will result in temperatures Sunday being well below
normal areawide.  We will make mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the potential of heavy rainfall and flash flooding along with high
winds through Guadalupe Pass.  If model agreement continues, do not be
surprised if a Flash Flood Watch is issued within the next 24 hours for
Sunday and perhaps Sunday night for much of the forecast area along with
a High Wind Watch for Guadalupe Pass.

We will continue the theme of wet and cool conditions Monday through
Wednesday, but lesser rainfall rates should mitigate heavy rain concerns.
Where the cutoff low meanders to during this time frame will dictate how
cool and how wet, but the details are uncertain.  Best indications
now will be for a warming and drying trend late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  90  69  70 /  10  60  70  90
Carlsbad                       65  87  63  69 /  20  10  20  60
Dryden                         72  92  72  75 /  10  30  70  90
Fort Stockton                  71  90  68  70 /  10  40  60  90
Guadalupe Pass                 63  77  60  62 /  20  10  20  60
Hobbs                          66  84  63  68 /  30  30  30  70
Marfa                          60  83  61  65 /  20  50  50  70
Midland Intl Airport           71  88  68  70 /  10  50  70  90
Odessa                         71  88  67  70 /  10  50  70  90
Wink                           71  91  68  72 /  20  30  40  80

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
664
FXUS64 KMAF 231900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Some big changes are on the way, but just how much change will
depend on the formation and subsequent movement of a cutoff low.
Presently, the evolution is for a cutoff low over the Great Basin
will open a bit and translate northeast over the Northern Plains
while another short wave trough develops to its south.  This trough
then evolves into a closed upper low over New Mexico.  Given the
uncertainty inherent with forecasting closed upper features, further
adjustments to the forecast are likely.  However, confidence is high
that much cooler temperatures along with heavy rainfall are in the
cards for Sunday, with well below normal temperatures persisting
through the early part of next week.

As it stands now, an upper level ridge, which has been over the
Southern Plains for several days, will be shunted eastward in the
next 24-36 hours as a large upper low currently over the Great Basin
eases northeastward.  A short wave trough within this upper low will
eject northeastward over the central Rockies and out over the Northern
Plains Saturday afternoon.  In response to increasing surface
frontogenesis associated with the passing of the aforementioned short
wave trough over the Northern Plains, a cold front will develop and move
south toward the southern High Plains, with colder air hugging the eastern
slopes of the Rockies down to northeastern New Mexico by Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, additional short wave energy will drop down behind the
Northern Plains system and close off over southern New Mexico/northern
Chihuahua by Sunday morning.  A surface low will develop over the Big
Bend, drawing the colder air deeper over much of west Texas and all of
southeastern New Mexico Sunday afternoon.  Surface cooling will be
augmented further as extensive cloudiness will retard insolation and
widespread precipitation will lead to substantial wet-bulb cooling of
the column.

Although models diverge in their handling of the upper low thereafter,
cooler conditions are expected to prevail over the region through at
least mid next week.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday could be
20 to 25 degrees below normal, if not more!  Rain chances will increase
over southeastern New Mexico and west Texas Saturday, then stay in the
forecast through at least next Wednesday.  See details below.

For this afternoon and tonight, a surface trough over New Mexico
will develop/move eastward into the forecast area this afternoon as
the above mentioned initial short wave trough aids in lowering
heights over the region.  We will add isolated thunderstorms over the
western half of the CWA this afternoon due to a minor short wave
trough moving north from Coahuila.  There does not appear to
be much mid level support farther west near the surface trough, but
that will change overnight as a shortwave trough sweeps east/
northeastward over New Mexico.  In addition, deep layer lift
associated with the right rear quadrant of an 80kt jet at 250 hPa may
support isolated thunderstorms along the surface trough overnight.
A few storms could be strong with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall;
however, effective shear is generally less than 25kt, instability is
fairly modest, and lapse rates are close to moist adiabatic.

On Saturday, the upper trough over the west will deepen as additional
short wave energy drops into the base of the long wave trough over New
Mexico.  As a result, lift will increase over the area and as such
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and east of the surface
trough stretching southwest/northeast across the CWA.  Forecast SBCAPE
will rise to at least 1000-1500 J/Kg, but lapse rates will continue to
be near moist adiabatic and 0 to 6km shear will generally be 25kt or
less.  Therefore, we think a few strong storms could develop, perhaps
reaching severe levels, with gusty winds over 50 mph, large hail and
locally heavy rainfall.  We will include this potential for strong to
severe convection in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

For Sunday, the cutoff low is expected to reside over southern New
Mexico/northern Chihuahua.  With difluent flow aloft and deep layer
lift further enhanced beneath the right rear quadrant of an 80kt jet
at 250 hPa, isentropic upglide will increase above the frontal surface.
This will in turn tap a subtropical moisture feed and increase deep
layer moisture, a critical factor in heavy rain forecasting.  By Sunday
morning, precipitable water values will rise to between 1.25 and 1.50
inches, or close to the 90th percentile climatologically.  We expect
widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday morning along
the southward-moving cold front, with signals indicating a good chance
of heavy rainfall.  Behind the front, gap winds through Guadalupe Pass
could increase to 40 to 50 mph sustained.  As stated earlier, surface
cold air advection, low insolation, and diabatic cooling of the column
behind the front will result in temperatures Sunday being well below
normal areawide.  We will make mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook
for the potential of heavy rainfall and flash flooding along with high
winds through Guadalupe Pass.  If model agreement continues, do not be
surprised if a Flash Flood Watch is issued within the next 24 hours for
Sunday and perhaps Sunday night for much of the forecast area along with
a High Wind Watch for Guadalupe Pass.

We will continue the theme of wet and cool conditions Monday through
Wednesday, but lesser rainfall rates should mitigate heavy rain concerns.
Where the cutoff low meanders to during this time frame will dictate how
cool and how wet, but the details are uncertain.  Best indications
now will be for a warming and drying trend late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  90  69  70 /  10  60  70  90
Carlsbad                       65  87  63  69 /  20  10  20  60
Dryden                         72  92  72  75 /  10  30  70  90
Fort Stockton                  71  90  68  70 /  10  40  60  90
Guadalupe Pass                 63  77  60  62 /  20  10  20  60
Hobbs                          66  84  63  68 /  30  30  30  70
Marfa                          60  83  61  65 /  20  50  50  70
Midland Intl Airport           71  88  68  70 /  10  50  70  90
Odessa                         71  88  67  70 /  10  50  70  90
Wink                           71  91  68  72 /  20  30  40  80

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/67
342
FXUS64 KMAF 231558
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1058 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Forecast soundings
develop a widespread cu field this afternoon, developing S-N,
w/bases 4.5-8 kft agl. 40-45kt LLJ develops overnight, w/stratus
development possible in the east around sunrise. Another cu field
develops near the end of the forecast period, w/bases 2.5-4.5 kft
agl as a dryline pushes in from the west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another unseasonably warm day is expected today as the region
remains under the influence of upper ridging and increasing
southwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures are expected to climb
into the 80s and 90s, similar to yesterday. To the west, a potent
upper trough continues to dig as it moves slowly eastward, with
the core of the low expected to progress to the vicinity of the
Four Corners Region by this evening. In response to the
progression of the upper system, a lee surface trough will develop
east of the Rockies, and given increasing moisture over the
region, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
mainly over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and
Southwest Texas. A few storms may move east off the higher terrain
this evening into tonight.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area on Saturday as
the upper trough continues to move toward the region. Precipitable
water values are progged to climb to around 1.0 inch across
western portions of the forecast area on Saturday, and up to
around 1.5 inches across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos,
corresponding to roughly 1 standard deviation above normal for
eastern zones per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thunderstorm chances
will increase and shift slightly eastward on Saturday, in response
to increasing support from the approaching upper trough and the
surface lee trough axis which looks to push toward the TX/NM state
line by Saturday afternoon. High temperatures Saturday will be a
few degrees cooler, though most locations will still be above
normal.

By Sunday morning, model guidance indicates that a closed low will
pinch off at the base of the elongated upper trough axis,
settling near the AZ/NM border. This is a deviation from the
previous model runs, which indicated that the trough would remain
open and progressive. Given the lack of run-to-run model
continuity, have not deviated much from the mean for Sunday, as a
closed low would likely slow down the progression of our first
fall cold front until Sunday evening. Either way, rain chances
will increase areawide Sunday ahead of the front due to increased
upper support, and temperatures will be near to below normal due
to anticipated precipitation and cloud cover. Given elevated
precipitable water values as well as the potential for prolonged
periods of precipitation, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
through Sunday night, which could lead to some localized flooding
concerns, particularly over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. Another concern with the front will be the potential for a
few hours of high winds through Guadalupe Pass late Sunday
afternoon/early Sunday evening, though the timing hinges on when
the front pushes through the area.

In the wake of the front on Monday, it will certainly feel like
fall across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas as much cooler
air filters into the region. Monday morning low temperatures will
be in the 50s for most of the area, with high temperatures likely
not making it out of the 60s for most locations. Lingering
showers, widespread cloud cover, as well as breezy northeast winds
Monday could make it feel even cooler. Unseasonably cool
temperatures look to stick around into midweek, with highs
slowly moderating toward normal values by next Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  89  69  75 /  10  40  50  60
Carlsbad                       64  88  61  78 /  20  10  10  40
Dryden                         72  92  73  84 /  10  30  50  60
Fort Stockton                  69  89  66  78 /  10  30  40  50
Guadalupe Pass                 62  80  56  72 /  20  10  10  30
Hobbs                          64  82  61  74 /  20  20  20  40
Marfa                          58  81  59  77 /  10  30  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           71  89  67  77 /  10  30  50  60
Odessa                         71  87  65  77 /  10  30  40  60
Wink                           69  90  67  79 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/67/44
411
FXUS64 KMAF 231129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from previous issuance. Dissipating low level jet
(albeit weak) will mix to the surface around 15Z resulting in
gusty winds. Forecast soundings hint at MVFR CIGS at MAF 09Z-12Z
Tue AM with a stronger low level jet. A few -SHRA/-TSRA possible
in far w this PM and across parts of the PB this evening, still
too low of a probability to include.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Another unseasonably warm day is expected today as the region
remains under the influence of upper ridging and increasing
southwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures are expected to climb
into the 80s and 90s, similar to yesterday. To the west, a potent
upper trough continues to dig as it moves slowly eastward, with
the core of the low expected to progress to the vicinity of the
Four Corners Region by this evening. In response to the
progression of the upper system, a lee surface trough will develop
east of the Rockies, and given increasing moisture over the
region, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
mainly over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and
Southwest Texas. A few storms may move east off the higher terrain
this evening into tonight.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area on Saturday as
the upper trough continues to move toward the region. Precipitable
water values are progged to climb to around 1.0 inch across
western portions of the forecast area on Saturday, and up to
around 1.5 inches across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos,
corresponding to roughly 1 standard deviation above normal for
eastern zones per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thunderstorm chances
will increase and shift slightly eastward on Saturday, in response
to increasing support from the approaching upper trough and the
surface lee trough axis which looks to push toward the TX/NM state
line by Saturday afternoon. High temperatures Saturday will be a
few degrees cooler, though most locations will still be above
normal.

By Sunday morning, model guidance indicates that a closed low will
pinch off at the base of the elongated upper trough axis,
settling near the AZ/NM border. This is a deviation from the
previous model runs, which indicated that the trough would remain
open and progressive. Given the lack of run-to-run model
continuity, have not deviated much from the mean for Sunday, as a
closed low would likely slow down the progression of our first
fall cold front until Sunday evening. Either way, rain chances
will increase areawide Sunday ahead of the front due to increased
upper support, and temperatures will be near to below normal due
to anticipated precipitation and cloud cover. Given elevated
precipitable water values as well as the potential for prolonged
periods of precipitation, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
through Sunday night, which could lead to some localized flooding
concerns, particularly over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. Another concern with the front will be the potential for a
few hours of high winds through Guadalupe Pass late Sunday
afternoon/early Sunday evening, though the timing hinges on when
the front pushes through the area.

In the wake of the front on Monday, it will certainly feel like
fall across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas as much cooler
air filters into the region. Monday morning low temperatures will
be in the 50s for most of the area, with high temperatures likely
not making it out of the 60s for most locations. Lingering
showers, widespread cloud cover, as well as breezy northeast winds
Monday could make it feel even cooler. Unseasonably cool
temperatures look to stick around into midweek, with highs
slowly moderating toward normal values by next Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  73  89  69 /   0  10  40  50
Carlsbad                       90  64  88  61 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  92  73 /   0  10  30  50
Fort Stockton                  93  69  89  66 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 83  62  80  56 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                          87  64  82  61 /   0  20  20  20
Marfa                          86  58  81  59 /  10  10  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           90  71  89  67 /   0  10  30  50
Odessa                         90  71  87  65 /   0  10  30  40
Wink                           94  69  90  67 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
707
FXUS64 KMAF 230830
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
330 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Another unseasonably warm day is expected today as the region
remains under the influence of upper ridging and increasing
southwesterly flow aloft. High temperatures are expected to climb
into the 80s and 90s, similar to yesterday. To the west, a potent
upper trough continues to dig as it moves slowly eastward, with
the core of the low expected to progress to the vicinity of the
Four Corners Region by this evening. In response to the
progression of the upper system, a lee surface trough will develop
east of the Rockies, and given increasing moisture over the
region, isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
mainly over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and
Southwest Texas. A few storms may move east off the higher terrain
this evening into tonight.

Moisture will continue to increase over the area on Saturday as
the upper trough continues to move toward the region. Precipitable
water values are progged to climb to around 1.0 inch across
western portions of the forecast area on Saturday, and up to
around 1.5 inches across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos,
corresponding to roughly 1 standard deviation above normal for
eastern zones per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thunderstorm chances
will increase and shift slightly eastward on Saturday, in response
to increasing support from the approaching upper trough and the
surface lee trough axis which looks to push toward the TX/NM state
line by Saturday afternoon. High temperatures Saturday will be a
few degrees cooler, though most locations will still be above
normal.

By Sunday morning, model guidance indicates that a closed low will
pinch off at the base of the elongated upper trough axis,
settling near the AZ/NM border. This is a deviation from the
previous model runs, which indicated that the trough would remain
open and progressive. Given the lack of run-to-run model
continuity, have not deviated much from the mean for Sunday, as a
closed low would likely slow down the progression of our first
fall cold front until Sunday evening. Either way, rain chances
will increase areawide Sunday ahead of the front due to increased
upper support, and temperatures will be near to below normal due
to anticipated precipitation and cloud cover. Given elevated
precipitable water values as well as the potential for prolonged
periods of precipitation, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
through Sunday night, which could lead to some localized flooding
concerns, particularly over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. Another concern with the front will be the potential for a
few hours of high winds through Guadalupe Pass late Sunday
afternoon/early Sunday evening, though the timing hinges on when
the front pushes through the area.

In the wake of the front on Monday, it will certainly feel like
fall across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas as much cooler
air filters into the region. Monday morning low temperatures will
be in the 50s for most of the area, with high temperatures likely
not making it out of the 60s for most locations. Lingering
showers, widespread cloud cover, as well as breezy northeast winds
Monday could make it feel even cooler. Unseasonably cool
temperatures look to stick around into midweek, with highs
slowly moderating toward normal values by next Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  73  89  69 /   0  10  40  50
Carlsbad                       90  64  88  61 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  92  73 /   0  10  30  50
Fort Stockton                  93  69  89  66 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 83  62  80  56 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                          87  64  82  61 /   0  20  20  20
Marfa                          86  58  81  59 /  10  10  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           90  71  89  67 /   0  10  30  50
Odessa                         90  71  87  65 /   0  10  30  40
Wink                           94  69  90  67 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/84
652
FXUS64 KMAF 230518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR condition will prevail thru this evening. SE winds will turn
gusty around 15Z at MAF/HOB/FST. Otherwise low probability of
-SHRA/-TSRA at western TAF sites after 21Z are too low to
included in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  73  89  68 /   0  10  50  50
Carlsbad                       89  65  87  61 /  10  20  10  10
Dryden                         92  72  91  71 /   0  10  30  50
Fort Stockton                  93  71  90  67 /   0  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 83  63  79  58 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                          88  64  83  60 /   0  20  20  20
Marfa                          86  62  82  61 /  10  10  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           91  71  89  67 /   0  10  40  40
Odessa                         90  71  88  66 /   0  10  40  40
Wink                           94  69  91  66 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
381
FXUS64 KMAF 222240
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours under clear skies. Expect
mainly southeast winds of 5 to 15 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
We`ve got a large upper trough digging through the western US today,
slowly edging the upper ridging overhead eastward. Still being under
the influence of the ridge, despite the fact that it`s officially
Fall, temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s or so by
peak heating today. This is roughly 5+ degrees above normal values
for this time of year. Friday will be very similar to today, but
unlike a completely dry day expected today, there could be some
isolated storms near the higher terrain regions Friday afternoon.

A surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies by Friday morning
as the core of the upper low approaches the Four Corners region. As
a result, increasing southerly flow at the surface will draw LL
moisture back into the region while increased SW flow aloft works to
increase moisture in the mid levels. PWATs well under 1" this
morning will increase to 1.25"-1.5" by Saturday. Rain chances
increase Saturday as the elongated upper trough approaches,
providing some weak upper forcing for ascent, and surface
convergence increases along the lee trough axis that looks to
extend south through the forecast area. Decent rain chances will
continue Sunday with the passage of a cold front and good upper
forcing from the upper trough, though best chances will be across
the eastern half of the CWA where moisture will be higher. Models
have really been struggling with the evolution of the upper trough
beyond Saturday. Latest runs show a cut-off low breaking from the
south end of the main upper trough Sunday. The ECMWF keeps the low
spinning just west with rain continuing through the beginning of
the work week while the GFS takes the upper low back to the SW
fairly quickly, keeping the forecast are dry beyond Sunday. At
this point, will only keep slight chance in Monday and Tuesday and
adjust when models get a better handle on it.

Saturday high temperatures will be slightly cooler than Friday due
to increase rain chances and cloud cover then the front Sunday cools
temps down to the 70s most locations through Tuesday. Drier/cooler
air will filter in behind the front and high temperatures Monday are
expected to be in the 70s followed by lows in the 50s Monday
night/Tuesday morning. PWATs forecasted to be near 1.5 inches
so heavy rainfall may become a bit of a concern during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  91  73  89 /   0   0  10  50
Carlsbad                       64  89  65  87 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         70  92  72  91 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  68  93  71  90 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 63  83  63  79 /   0  10  20  10
Hobbs                          64  88  64  83 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          58  86  62  82 /   0  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  91  71  89 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                         68  90  71  88 /   0   0  10  40
Wink                           68  94  69  91 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/27
937
FXUS64 KMAF 221857
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
157 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
We`ve got a large upper trough digging through the western US today,
slowly edging the upper ridging overhead eastward. Still being under
the influence of the ridge, despite the fact that it`s officially
Fall, temperatures will warm to the upper 80s and low 90s or so by
peak heating today. This is roughly 5+ degrees above normal values
for this time of year. Friday will be very similar to today, but
unlike a completely dry day expected today, there could be some
isolated storms near the higher terrain regions Friday afternoon.

A surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies by Friday morning
as the core of the upper low approaches the Four Corners region. As
a result, increasing southerly flow at the surface will draw LL
moisture back into the region while increased SW flow aloft works to
increase moisture in the mid levels. PWATs well under 1" this
morning will increase to 1.25"-1.5" by Saturday. Rain chances
increase Saturday as the elongated upper trough approaches,
providing some weak upper forcing for ascent, and surface
convergence increases along the lee trough axis that looks to
extend south through the forecast area. Decent rain chances will
continue Sunday with the passage of a cold front and good upper
forcing from the upper trough, though best chances will be across
the eastern half of the CWA where moisture will be higher. Models
have really been struggling with the evolution of the upper trough
beyond Saturday. Latest runs show a cut-off low breaking from the
south end of the main upper trough Sunday. The ECMWF keeps the low
spinning just west with rain continuing through the beginning of
the work week while the GFS takes the upper low back to the SW
fairly quickly, keeping the forecast are dry beyond Sunday. At
this point, will only keep slight chance in Monday and Tuesday and
adjust when models get a better handle on it.

Saturday high temperatures will be slightly cooler than Friday due
to increase rain chances and cloud cover then the front Sunday cools
temps down to the 70s most locations through Tuesday. Drier/cooler
air will filter in behind the front and high temperatures Monday are
expected to be in the 70s followed by lows in the 50s Monday
night/Tuesday morning. PWATs forecasted to be near 1.5 inches
so heavy rainfall may become a bit of a concern during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  91  73  89 /   0   0  10  50
Carlsbad                       64  89  65  87 /   0  10  20  10
Dryden                         70  92  72  91 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  68  93  71  90 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 63  83  63  79 /   0  10  20  10
Hobbs                          64  88  64  83 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          58  86  62  82 /   0  10  10  30
Midland Intl Airport           68  91  71  89 /   0   0  10  40
Odessa                         68  90  71  88 /   0   0  10  40
Wink                           68  94  69  91 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/27
175
FXUS64 KMAF 221713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  68  91  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       89  63  89  65 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  92  68  92  70 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  63  83  62 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          87  63  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          86  54  86  59 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  67  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  67  89  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
775
FXUS64 KMAF 221105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Light southeast
winds could increase to around 15KT this afternoon, mainly at MAF,
INK, and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains center over TX with an upper trough/low
extending down the West Coast. This trough will push east reaching
the Rockies Saturday and moving across the area Sunday. This will
bring cooler wx to the region and a chance of rain before high
pressure builds back in behind the trough.

For the first day of Fall expect unseasonably warm conditions to
continue.  Highs today will be near to a degree or two cooler than
yesterday due to somewhat cooler 850mb temps.  Lows should be
running a little cooler in the 60s.  A cold front is still on track
for passage Sunday... this should bring a couple days of highs only
in the 70s Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 50s.

Not expecting much in the way of storms today under the ridge... but
could see some over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Friday.
Pops begin to increase Saturday ahead of the upper trough with
Sunday looking like the best chance of rain for the area as the
front arrives.  Severe potential not looking as good so have backed
up wording in the HWO.  Rain chances taper off Monday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  68  91  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       89  63  89  65 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  92  68  92  70 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  63  83  62 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          87  63  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          86  54  86  59 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  67  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  67  89  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
607
FXUS64 KMAF 220901
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
401 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains center over TX with an upper trough/low
extending down the West Coast. This trough will push east reaching
the Rockies Saturday and moving across the area Sunday. This will
bring cooler wx to the region and a chance of rain before high
pressure builds back in behind the trough.

For the first day of Fall expect unseasonably warm conditions to
continue.  Highs today will be near to a degree or two cooler than
yesterday due to somewhat cooler 850mb temps.  Lows should be
running a little cooler in the 60s.  A cold front is still on track
for passage Sunday... this should bring a couple days of highs only
in the 70s Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 50s.

Not expecting much in the way of storms today under the ridge... but
could see some over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Friday.
Pops begin to increase Saturday ahead of the upper trough with
Sunday looking like the best chance of rain for the area as the
front arrives.  Severe potential not looking as good so have backed
up wording in the HWO.  Rain chances taper off Monday onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  68  91  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       89  63  89  65 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  92  68  92  70 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  63  83  62 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          87  63  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          86  54  86  59 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  67  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  67  89  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
750
FXUS64 KMAF 220521
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light
southeast winds could become breezy during the afternoon,
particularly at INK, MAF, and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging overhead is slightly weaker today and with a few
clouds around this afternoon, high temperatures will be roughly a
degree or two cooler, except for maybe the Rio Grande Valley
locations where highs will reach or exceed 100. Although we haven`t
see any thunderstorm activity develop as of 2pm CDT, there still
remains a possibility for some isolated storms across Guadalupe
Mountains and SE NM through this evening. The upper ridge will
continue to weaken over the area and slowly shift east as a large
upper low (now entering the PacNW) digs SE through the western US
the next few days. Despite the lowering heights each day, southerly
flow at the surface will help keep temperatures above normal through
Friday. Rain chances will be nil most locations during this time.

As the aforementioned upper low swings east through the Rocky
Mountains region, a lee surface trough will strengthen, drawing
moisture back into the region Friday and Saturday. Rain chances
increase Saturday afternoon as the broad upper trough provides some
weak upper forcing for ascent and a weak Pacific front edges east
into the forecast area. PWATs forecasted to be near 1.5 inches so
heavy rainfall may become a bit of a concern during this time. Rain
chances increase Sunday as a cold front pushes south throughout the
afternoon. Should have fairly decent upper support with the
potential of a shortwave diving south and through the base of the
upper trough Saturday night and Sunday. Highest chances will be
across the eastern half of the CWA where moisture will be higher.
High temperatures Sunday will generally be in the 70s and low 80s.
Drier/cooler air will filter in behind the front and high
temperatures Monday are expected to be in the 70s followed by lows
in the 50s Monday night/Tuesday morning. Beyond Monday, dry and
warming conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  69  91  71 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       90  64  89  65 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         92  70  91  71 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  92  69  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 84  63  82  62 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          87  64  87  65 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          86  59  86  62 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  68  91  70 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  68  89  70 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
974
FXUS64 KMAF 212323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging overhead is slightly weaker today and with a few
clouds around this afternoon, high temperatures will be roughly a
degree or two cooler, except for maybe the Rio Grande Valley
locations where highs will reach or exceed 100. Although we haven`t
see any thunderstorm activity develop as of 2pm CDT, there still
remains a possibility for some isolated storms across Guadalupe
Mountains and SE NM through this evening. The upper ridge will
continue to weaken over the area and slowly shift east as a large
upper low (now entering the PacNW) digs SE through the western US
the next few days. Despite the lowering heights each day, southerly
flow at the surface will help keep temperatures above normal through
Friday. Rain chances will be nil most locations during this time.

As the aforementioned upper low swings east through the Rocky
Mountains region, a lee surface trough will strengthen, drawing
moisture back into the region Friday and Saturday. Rain chances
increase Saturday afternoon as the broad upper trough provides some
weak upper forcing for ascent and a weak Pacific front edges east
into the forecast area. PWATs forecasted to be near 1.5 inches so
heavy rainfall may become a bit of a concern during this time. Rain
chances increase Sunday as a cold front pushes south throughout the
afternoon. Should have fairly decent upper support with the
potential of a shortwave diving south and through the base of the
upper trough Saturday night and Sunday. Highest chances will be
across the eastern half of the CWA where moisture will be higher.
High temperatures Sunday will generally be in the 70s and low 80s.
Drier/cooler air will filter in behind the front and high
temperatures Monday are expected to be in the 70s followed by lows
in the 50s Monday night/Tuesday morning. Beyond Monday, dry and
warming conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  90  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 63  84  63  82 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          63  87  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  86  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         67  90  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           66  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/10/
430
FXUS64 KMAF 211933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging overhead is slightly weaker today and with a few
clouds around this afternoon, high temperatures will be roughly a
degree or two cooler, except for maybe the Rio Grande Valley
locations where highs will reach or exceed 100. Although we haven`t
see any thunderstorm activity develop as of 2pm CDT, there still
remains a possibility for some isolated storms across Guadalupe
Mountains and SE NM through this evening. The upper ridge will
continue to weaken over the area and slowly shift east as a large
upper low (now entering the PacNW) digs SE through the western US
the next few days. Despite the lowering heights each day, southerly
flow at the surface will help keep temperatures above normal through
Friday. Rain chances will be nil most locations during this time.

As the aforementioned upper low swings east through the Rocky
Mountains region, a lee surface trough will strengthen, drawing
moisture back into the region Friday and Saturday. Rain chances
increase Saturday afternoon as the broad upper trough provides some
weak upper forcing for ascent and a weak Pacific front edges east
into the forecast area. PWATs forecasted to be near 1.5 inches so
heavy rainfall may become a bit of a concern during this time. Rain
chances increase Sunday as a cold front pushes south throughout the
afternoon. Should have fairly decent upper support with the
potential of a shortwave diving south and through the base of the
upper trough Saturday night and Sunday. Highest chances will be
across the eastern half of the CWA where moisture will be higher.
High temperatures Sunday will generally be in the 70s and low 80s.
Drier/cooler air will filter in behind the front and high
temperatures Monday are expected to be in the 70s followed by lows
in the 50s Monday night/Tuesday morning. Beyond Monday, dry and
warming conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  90  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 63  84  63  82 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          63  87  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  86  59  86 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         67  90  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           66  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/27
787
FXUS64 KMAF 211548
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1048 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow w/a few
high clouds. A few cu will be possible invof KMAF/KINK near the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions and south to southeast winds will prevail through
the forecast period. Winds will be around 12kt or less for all but
INK, MAF, and FST, where some gusts to around 18-20kt may be
possible this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper level ridge centered over TX with an upper trough
moving onto the NW Coast. The trough will dig down the west coast
before swinging east onto the Great Basin Thursday and lift across
Intermountain West Friday.  The trough will stretch from the
Canadian border to the Mexican border on Saturday and displace the
ridge as it pushes east with high pressure building back in behind
it.

A leeside trough will keep the wind out of the south and
temperatures and moisture elevated.  Expect the unseasonably warm
temps will continue this week with readings in the 90s.  The area
high yesterday was 105 at Rio Grande Village.  850mb temps should be
on a slow decrease so looking for highs to slowly taper off.  A cold
front should blow through Sunday knocking highs down into the 70s by
Monday.

Have cloud cover over the west this morning as pacific moisture
flows into the center of the country.  There were few storms
yesterday... some over the Guadalupes and a few over northern
Presidio and southern Culberson.  The latest model run not
developing much in the way of storms today but will go ahead and
leave isolated in the forecast for SE NM and the Guadalupes.  Very
little convection expected Thursday with a few storms over the
mountains Friday.  Rain chances will increase over the weekend with
Sunday looking like the best chance as the front arrives.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  92  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       63  90  63  90 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         72  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 63  83  62  83 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          63  87  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          55  86  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           68  92  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         68  90  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           67  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/27/44
838
FXUS64 KMAF 211052
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
552 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and south to southeast winds will prevail through
the forecast period. Winds will be around 12kt or less for all but
INK, MAF, and FST, where some gusts to around 18-20kt may be
possible this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper level ridge centered over TX with an upper trough
moving onto the NW Coast. The trough will dig down the west coast
before swinging east onto the Great Basin Thursday and lift across
Intermountain West Friday.  The trough will stretch from the
Canadian border to the Mexican border on Saturday and displace the
ridge as it pushes east with high pressure building back in behind
it.

A leeside trough will keep the wind out of the south and
temperatures and moisture elevated.  Expect the unseasonably warm
temps will continue this week with readings in the 90s.  The area
high yesterday was 105 at Rio Grande Village.  850mb temps should be
on a slow decrease so looking for highs to slowly taper off.  A cold
front should blow through Sunday knocking highs down into the 70s by
Monday.

Have cloud cover over the west this morning as pacific moisture
flows into the center of the country.  There were few storms
yesterday... some over the Guadalupes and a few over northern
Presidio and southern Culberson.  The latest model run not
developing much in the way of storms today but will go ahead and
leave isolated in the forecast for SE NM and the Guadalupes.  Very
little convection expected Thursday with a few storms over the
mountains Friday.  Rain chances will increase over the weekend with
Sunday looking like the best chance as the front arrives.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  69  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  63  90  63 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         96  72  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  94  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  63  83  62 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          88  63  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  68  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         92  68  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           95  67  94  66 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
145
FXUS64 KMAF 210829
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
329 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Have an upper level ridge centered over TX with an upper trough
moving onto the NW Coast. The trough will dig down the west coast
before swinging east onto the Great Basin Thursday and lift across
Intermountain West Friday.  The trough will stretch from the
Canadian border to the Mexican border on Saturday and displace the
ridge as it pushes east with high pressure building back in behind
it.

A leeside trough will keep the wind out of the south and
temperatures and moisture elevated.  Expect the unseasonably warm
temps will continue this week with readings in the 90s.  The area
high yesterday was 105 at Rio Grande Village.  850mb temps should be
on a slow decrease so looking for highs to slowly taper off.  A cold
front should blow through Sunday knocking highs down into the 70s by
Monday.

Have cloud cover over the west this morning as pacific moisture
flows into the center of the country.  There were few storms
yesterday... some over the Guadalupes and a few over northern
Presidio and southern Culberson.  The latest model run not
developing much in the way of storms today but will go ahead and
leave isolated in the forecast for SE NM and the Guadalupes.  Very
little convection expected Thursday with a few storms over the
mountains Friday.  Rain chances will increase over the weekend with
Sunday looking like the best chance as the front arrives.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  69  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  63  90  63 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         96  72  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  94  68  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  63  83  62 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          88  63  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          87  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  68  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         92  68  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           95  67  94  66 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
268
FXUS64 KMAF 210524
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Winds will be southeasterly, with sustained speeds around 12kt or
less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 154 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z UA charts show that a mid level anticyclone was centered btwn
MAF and OUN favoring a SE 7h-5h wind and thus a little cooler in
the mid levels. Brief -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible INVOF Davis/GDP
Mtns this PM. By Wed the presence of the mid level ridge will be
less and SW mid level flow will edge into the far wrn CWFA and a
few -SHRA/-TSRA may strafe the GDP Mtns/W Eddy Co.. 7h temps will
cool to 10-12C Wed/Thur with only 588 heights at 5h. Low level
mstr will decrease a little each day too and the mid level moist
axis will lift back to the n, so it is expected to be dry Thur
even across the mtns. Concurrently an upper low INVOF the Great
Basin will move into the interior Rocky Mtns and a mid level moist
axis will edge back to the e. As the low/trof deepen and move e an
attendant slow moving Pacific front will also move e. As heights
fall Fri afternoon/Sat the mid levels will cool resulting in
increased instability and a general increase in the chance of
storms. Surface dwpnts decrease quickly behind the front so the
window for precip across the Trans Pecos and SE NM will probably
be short-lived and of course much longer farther e as RRQ of
upper jet remains overhead. There is still the possibility that a
secondary upper low may form in the base of the slow moving long
wave trof which could bring PoPs back farther w into parts of the
Trans Pecos and SE NM on Sunday. Noticeable thickness cooling
along with clouds/rain will make for period of below normal temps
Sun-Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     93  69  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       90  64  89  63 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         94  69  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  93  68  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 84  63  83  62 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          87  63  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          86  57  85  58 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           93  68  92  67 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         91  68  90  67 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           94  67  93  66 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
485
FXUS64 KMAF 202325
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
625 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 154 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
12Z UA charts show that a mid level anticyclone was centered btwn
MAF and OUN favoring a SE 7h-5h wind and thus a little cooler in
the mid levels. Brief -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible INVOF Davis/GDP
Mtns this PM. By Wed the presence of the mid level ridge will be
less and SW mid level flow will edge into the far wrn CWFA and a
few -SHRA/-TSRA may strafe the GDP Mtns/W Eddy Co.. 7h temps will
cool to 10-12C Wed/Thur with only 588 heights at 5h. Low level
mstr will decrease a little each day too and the mid level moist
axis will lift back to the n, so it is expected to be dry Thur
even across the mtns. Concurrently an upper low INVOF the Great
Basin will move into the interior Rocky Mtns and a mid level moist
axis will edge back to the e. As the low/trof deepen and move e an
attendant slow moving Pacific front will also move e. As heights
fall Fri afternoon/Sat the mid levels will cool resulting in
increased instability and a general increase in the chance of
storms. Surface dwpnts decrease quickly behind the front so the
window for precip across the Trans Pecos and SE NM will probably
be short-lived and of course much longer farther e as RRQ of
upper jet remains overhead. There is still the possibility that a
secondary upper low may form in the base of the slow moving long
wave trof which could bring PoPs back farther w into parts of the
Trans Pecos and SE NM on Sunday. Noticeable thickness cooling
along with clouds/rain will make for period of below normal temps
Sun-Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  90  64  89 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         71  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  70  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  84  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          65  87  63  86 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          61  86  57  85 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  93  68  92 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         69  91  68  90 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           69  94  67  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
525
FXUS64 KMAF 201854
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
154 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12Z UA charts show that a mid level anticyclone was centered btwn
MAF and OUN favoring a SE 7h-5h wind and thus a little cooler in
the mid levels. Brief -SHRA/-TSRA will be possible INVOF Davis/GDP
Mtns this PM. By Wed the presence of the mid level ridge will be
less and SW mid level flow will edge into the far wrn CWFA and a
few -SHRA/-TSRA may strafe the GDP Mtns/W Eddy Co.. 7h temps will
cool to 10-12C Wed/Thur with only 588 heights at 5h. Low level
mstr will decrease a little each day too and the mid level moist
axis will lift back to the n, so it is expected to be dry Thur
even across the mtns. Concurrently an upper low INVOF the Great
Basin will move into the interior Rocky Mtns and a mid level moist
axis will edge back to the e. As the low/trof deepen and move e an
attendant slow moving Pacific front will also move e. As heights
fall Fri afternoon/Sat the mid levels will cool resulting in
increased instability and a general increase in the chance of
storms. Surface dwpnts decrease quickly behind the front so the
window for precip across the Trans Pecos and SE NM will probably
be short-lived and of course much longer farther e as RRQ of
upper jet remains overhead. There is still the possibility that a
secondary upper low may form in the base of the slow moving long
wave trof which could bring PoPs back farther w into parts of the
Trans Pecos and SE NM on Sunday. Noticeable thickness cooling
along with clouds/rain will make for period of below normal temps
Sun-Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  93  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  90  64  89 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                         71  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  70  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  84  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          65  87  63  86 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                          61  86  57  85 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  93  68  92 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         69  91  68  90 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                           69  94  67  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
500
FXUS64 KMAF 201735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals with SE winds 5-15kt sustained and
mostly clear skies expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area will produce unseasonably warm wx for
the region most of the week. An upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast later today digging southward and closing off Wednesday
and Thursday as it rolls east. By Friday it will begin to lift NE
as it swings across the Rockies. A new cut off low develops west
of the area by next Sunday will bring another chance of storms to
the area.

Well above normal temperatures will continue through Friday with
highs in the 90s... and 100+ along the Rio Grande.  Looking at the
arrival of a significant cold front next Sunday to knock highs back
into the 70s... could also be a focus for storm development.

Not much chance of rain the next few days under the ridge.  Had
storms yesterday over Presidio... Jeff Davis... and Brewster
counties.  Model qpf today hits Davis and guadalupe Mtns so have
thrown in isolated pops. On Wednesday most of the precip will be
west of the area but will keep low pops for SE NM and the Guadalupes
as may skirt the CWA.  Not much precip expected Thursday.  The
forecast will get more interesting toward the weekend as the cut off
low develops... will continue to highlight strong/severe wx
potential in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  66  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         97  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  69  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  67  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          92  64  89  63 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  86  55 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  70  93  69 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         94  70  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           97  67  94  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49/
445
FXUS64 KMAF 201053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Winds will remain
out of the southeast, around 12kt or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area will produce unseasonably warm wx for
the region most of the week. An upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast later today digging southward and closing off Wednesday
and Thursday as it rolls east. By Friday it will begin to lift NE
as it swings across the Rockies. A new cut off low develops west
of the area by next Sunday will bring another chance of storms to
the area.

Well above normal temperatures will continue through Friday with
highs in the 90s... and 100+ along the Rio Grande.  Looking at the
arrival of a significant cold front next Sunday to knock highs back
into the 70s... could also be a focus for storm development.

Not much chance of rain the next few days under the ridge.  Had
storms yesterday over Presidio... Jeff Davis... and Brewster
counties.  Model qpf today hits Davis and guadalupe Mtns so have
thrown in isolated pops. On Wednesday most of the precip will be
west of the area but will keep low pops for SE NM and the Guadalupes
as may skirt the CWA.  Not much precip expected Thursday.  The
forecast will get more interesting toward the weekend as the cut off
low develops... will continue to highlight strong/severe wx
potential in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  66  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         97  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  69  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  67  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          92  64  89  63 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  86  55 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  70  93  69 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         94  70  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           97  67  94  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
747
FXUS64 KMAF 200816
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge over the area will produce unseasonably warm wx for
the region most of the week. An upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast later today digging southward and closing off Wednesday
and Thursday as it rolls east. By Friday it will begin to lift NE
as it swings across the Rockies. A new cut off low develops west
of the area by next Sunday will bring another chance of storms to
the area.

Well above normal temperatures will continue through Friday with
highs in the 90s... and 100+ along the Rio Grande.  Looking at the
arrival of a significant cold front next Sunday to knock highs back
into the 70s... could also be a focus for storm development.

Not much chance of rain the next few days under the ridge.  Had
storms yesterday over Presidio... Jeff Davis... and Brewster
counties.  Model qpf today hits Davis and guadalupe Mtns so have
thrown in isolated pops. On Wednesday most of the precip will be
west of the area but will keep low pops for SE NM and the Guadalupes
as may skirt the CWA.  Not much precip expected Thursday.  The
forecast will get more interesting toward the weekend as the cut off
low develops... will continue to highlight strong/severe wx
potential in the HWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  66  92  65 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         97  72  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  96  69  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 90  67  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          92  64  89  63 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  86  55 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  70  93  69 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         94  70  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           97  67  94  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
499
FXUS64 KMAF 200530
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
southeasterly winds generally 12kt or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/

The mid level anticyclone has expanded northward today and will
remain mostly in place through Wed. Even though the anticyclone
will remain in place heights will fall some Tue/Wed so temps will
cool a few degrees. By later Wed SW flow aloft across far W TX/S
NM will tap into higher theta-e air and a few storms could creep
into GDP Mtns/W Eddy Co., but less so Thur. Meanwhile a deepening
upper low will drop into the Great Basin Thur PM with jet energy
carving the mean trof deeper on Fri. Eventually there is an
increasing likelihood that a new low will form INVOF 4 Corners
late Sat PM/Sunday AM. This will serve to back the mid level flow
and increase the chance of storms by Sat PM, if not a little
sooner. This would tend to delay fropa, possibly as late as Mon.
Despite the possibility of a delayed fropa temps will cool with
rain/clouds/lower heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     95  70  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       94  67  90  66 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         97  71  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  95  70  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 86  65  85  65 /   0  10  10  10
Hobbs                          90  66  88  65 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  61  86  59 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           95  69  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         94  69  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           96  69  94  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
884
FXUS64 KMAF 192323
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
623 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016/

The mid level anticyclone has expanded northward today and will
remain mostly in place through Wed. Even though the anticyclone
will remain in place heights will fall some Tue/Wed so temps will
cool a few degrees. By later Wed SW flow aloft across far W TX/S
NM will tap into higher theta-e air and a few storms could creep
into GDP Mtns/W Eddy Co., but less so Thur. Meanwhile a deepening
upper low will drop into the Great Basin Thur PM with jet energy
carving the mean trof deeper on Fri. Eventually there is an
increasing likelihood that a new low will form INVOF 4 Corners
late Sat PM/Sunday AM. This will serve to back the mid level flow
and increase the chance of storms by Sat PM, if not a little
sooner. This would tend to delay fropa, possibly as late as Mon.
Despite the possibility of a delayed fropa temps will cool with
rain/clouds/lower heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  95  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       66  94  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         73  97  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          65  90  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          62  88  61  86 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         71  94  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           69  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
787
FXUS64 KMAF 191909
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The mid level anticyclone has expanded northward today and will
remain mostly in place through Wed. Even though the anticyclone
will remain in place heights will fall some Tue/Wed so temps will
cool a few degrees. By later Wed SW flow aloft across far W TX/S
NM will tap into higher theta-e air and a few storms could creep
into GDP Mtns/W Eddy Co., but less so Thur. Meanwhile a deepening
upper low will drop into the Great Basin Thur PM with jet energy
carving the mean trof deeper on Fri. Eventually there is an
increasing likelihood that a new low will form INVOF 4 Corners
late Sat PM/Sunday AM. This will serve to back the mid level flow
and increase the chance of storms by Sat PM, if not a little
sooner. This would tend to delay fropa, possibly as late as Mon.
Despite the possibility of a delayed fropa temps will cool with
rain/clouds/lower heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  95  70  93 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       66  94  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         73  97  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  71  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          65  90  66  88 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          62  88  61  86 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           71  95  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         71  94  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           69  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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