Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 211751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015


Please see the 21/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.



Overall, VFR conditions will prevail across all area terminals
through 22/18Z. While convection over the Davis Mountains appears
likely, we`re unsure enough to forego a TEMPO at KFST for the late
afternoon/evening hours. Likewise at KHOB, where convection may
initiate along a surface trough/dryline around 20Z or so. Will
amend as appropriate should convective initiation and trends
become clearer.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 503 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/


See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


Area radars show remnants of earlier thunderstorms continuing to decay,
w/lots of convective debris floating about. This may hinder morning
stratus development, but the latest NAM persists on bringing a couple
of hours of IFR cigs to KMAF. Otherwise, convection will be possible
again this afternoon/evening, w/cu bases 5-7kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/


There are lingering showers moving across the area this morning.
Temperatures this afternoon are expected to climb back up into the
mid 90s to triple digits across most of the area as 850 mb
temperatures increase. There is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon for the western half of the CWA especially the higher
terrain and surrounding plains. These storms are expected to
continue into the overnight period.

An upper trough moving over the Northern Plains on Saturday will
help to keep the upper ridge over the area weak. Showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible across areas mainly along and
west of the Upper Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon with above normal
temperatures expected. This upper trough passing over the northern
conus will send a cold front southward into the area Sunday night.
Storms are expected to develop ahead of and along the front Sunday
afternoon with high temperatures a few degrees cooler.
Temperatures will be even cooler on Monday behind the front but
still around normal values for this time of year. An upper ridge
centered over Colorado and New Mexico will begin to build over
the western half of the conus beginning on Monday. Rain and storm
chances will decrease beginning on Tuesday and temperatures
through the extended will gradually increase as the upper ridge
builds over the region.







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