Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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719
FXUS64 KMAF 291041
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to continue to impact the terminals
until around 16z. Winds are expected to be elevated out of the
south to southeast today. There is a chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening across the area but do not know exactly
where storms will develop so did not put TSRA into the TAFs for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Between last night`s convection, and upcoming active synoptic
pattern, and a well blowout near KCNM, it has been a busy shift, so
not many changes to the forecast.

WV imagery shows the upper trough just making landfall in SoCal,
w/an upper jet rounding the base of this feature and nosing into
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  At the sfc, the dryline is
backed all the way up against the mtns, w/a Td of 56F noted at KGDP.
Over KMAF, VAD profiler shows stout return flow continuing to
advect plenty of Gulf moisture into the area, for another round of
convection today as shortwaves move into the region thru SW flow
aloft.  Deep lyr shear of 40-50kts will support supercells
once convection gets going.  Forecast soundings show mucapes in
excess of 2500J/kg in the Permian Basin at 00Z Monday, w/mid-lvl LRs
of 7C/km or better for a large hail threat. Inverted V profiles and
Dcapes around 1000J/kg or better suggest a damaging wind threat, as
well. Not so sure about the tornado threat, as LCLs look high and
helicities low.

Upper trough is forecast to creep along the U.S./Mexico border thru
midweek, opening and finally moving thru the area Wednesday night,
w/convection tapering off Thursday as the trough exits east.
Forecast soundings suggest a severe threat along and east of the
dryline daily thru then, and we`ll mention this in the HWO. Temps
should stay near normal thru Tuesday, than take a dive Wed/Thu as
thicknesses fall w/the arrival of the trough...then stay blo-normal
into the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  61  88  67 /  50  40  40  30
Carlsbad                       94  63  92  61 /  20  10  20  10
Dryden                         93  71  86  67 /  30  20  40  30
Fort Stockton                  93  69  90  67 /  40  10  40  20
Guadalupe Pass                 90  63  87  59 /  10   0  20  10
Hobbs                          91  63  86  61 /  40  20  30  20
Marfa                          88  52  87  53 /  30  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport           92  64  89  69 /  40  30  30  20
Odessa                         91  65  90  69 /  40  20  30  20
Wink                           96  65  93  65 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/

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