Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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452
FXUS64 KMAF 140223 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
919 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to cancel the Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The heavy rain has moved out of the area with mostly light rain
across the Permian Basin now.  Due to the decrease in rain intensity
and no more heavy rain expected through tonight across the area,
have decided to cancel the Flash Flood Watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Areas of rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the
area through the evening hours and into the overnight period.  There
is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the area Tuesday
afternoon but chances are too small to include in the TAFs at this
time.  Low ceilings will develop and move into much of the area this
evening and are expected to remain into the morning hours for MAF,
FST, and PEQ.  Winds will remain gusty out of the north through this
evening and will decrease in strength later tonight.  Winds will
become light and variable Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include Mitchell
and Scurry Counties.

DISCUSSION...

Due to heavy rainfall across the Western Low Rolling Plains, have
decided to expanded the Flash Flood Watch.  Have received recent
reports of heavy rainfall across this area and additional rainfall
is expected this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor depicts upper low INVOF Permian Basin with cold front
already into the PB. Cold pool aloft/surface boundary/abundant deep
mstr proving to be a good combination for SHRA/TSRA development.
Boundary and slow movement of upper low is providing enhancement to
heavy rain potential. A few severe storms are possible too with
CAPES around 1500 J/KG, deep shear of 35kts, and SRH enhancement
along boundary. We`ve already received a report of a funnel in
Howard Co, which we expect is more a "tropical funnel" type than
otherwise, and we expect more reports of these. The flash flood
watch will continue into the mid evening. Categorical PoPs this
afternoon will transition to scattered-likely after 00Z with heavy
rain/severe storms warranted until mid evening. Unseasonably cool
temps will persist into Tue PM, even though precip will end Tue.
Precip quickly returns to the fcst Wed PM as deepening trof moves
into the 4 Corners area with very steep LR/s across NM and W TX.
Dwpnts will only be around 40, so high based windy/little precip
producing showers/storms will be favored, at least initially. The
upper low will or may become closed over NM Thur PM and precip will
be warranted across ern half of the CWFA within deeper mstr. Upper
low lingers across the plains into Friday so precip is still
warranted, but uncertainty in position/location make PoP fcst
difficult. GFS kicks out low late Fri/Sat and ECMWF holds it west a
little longer, so blended fcst seems best way to go.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 45  64  48  80  /  30  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              48  66  50  82  /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                45  66  47  80  /  30  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  55  74  54  83  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  68  51  82  /  30  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          40  62  48  72  /  30  10   0  20
HOBBS NM                   43  63  45  78  /  30  10   0  20
MARFA TX                   42  65  41  74  /  20  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  66  49  81  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  46  66  50  81  /  30  10  10  10
WINK TX                    47  68  48  84  /  20  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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