Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241728
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mostly clear skies. W to NW wind this afternoon will come
around to the S/SW by this evening. A few TAF sites near a surface
trough may be a little gusty this afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Current upper air analysis shows a relatively broad jet stream
over the southern United States. This zonal flow will continue today
and tomorrow keeping temperatures above normal. The flow will
amplify late Wednesday with the development of a west coast
ridge/central U.S. trough couplet. This will send a cold front
through the area early Thursday bringing temperatures back down
below normal, even if only briefly. There may be an initial shot
of windy conditions immediately behind the front which could
approach advisory levels, but models are showing these winds will
quickly diminish and thus do not anticipate the need for an
advisory at this time. West winds ahead of the cold front
will push dry air across much of the area and cause the
development of a weak dryline in the far eastern Permian Basin.
The greatest convergence and moisture will be along and east of
the intersection of the dryline and cold front which is where the
highest rain chances were placed Wednesday night.

The upper ridge will broaden as it slowly moves east leaving west
Texas in northwesterly upper flow and a slow warming trend through
the weekend. Early next week could get interesting again, not so
much because of a weak front in the area on Monday, but mostly due
to another upper low approaching from the west. Both the ECMWF and
GFS show this feature moving into Arizona on Monday though the
trajectory of the ECMWF has it dropping southeast out of northern
California while the GFS has a more easterly movement from
southern California and northern Mexico. The GFS solution would be
wetter as it brings better lift across southern New Mexico and
West Texas so PoPs will largely depend on which model solution
proves correct. Currently there is too much uncertainty to go
higher than slight chance PoPs.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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