Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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186
FXUS64 KMAF 210935
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
We are still dealing with the remnants of Odile with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected into Monday before the
weak circulation center finally dissipates. The rainfall areal
coverage has not been particularly great, but where rain is
falling, it is heavy with rates in excess of 1 inch per hour not at
all uncommon. On top of that many areas have received rain
recently and the soil is saturated so most additional precip is
running off. Thus will continue the Flash Flood Watch through
today and it may need to be extended into tonight especially in
southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos.

Rain chances will drop some Monday then will really fall off
Tuesday as an upper level ridge rapidly amplifies over the
Rockies/Plains by mid week. In fact, models are indicating it
amplifies so much it will capture the southern end of a Midwest
trough and cause it to retrograde back towards Texas by Thursday.
This will keep lower heights across the CWA and prevent much
warming this forecast period. There could be some isolated storms
associated with this late in the week but will keep the late week
forecast mostly dry for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  66  77  64  /  70  40  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              82  67  79  64  /  60  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  67  79  65  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  86  70  85  69  /  50  30  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  67  83  66  /  50  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  60  72  59  /  70  60  50  30
HOBBS NM                   77  64  77  62  /  70  60  50  20
MARFA TX                   80  62  76  59  /  50  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  67  80  65  /  70  40  30  20
ODESSA TX                  80  67  80  65  /  70  40  30  20
WINK TX                    84  69  83  67  /  70  50  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

49/10

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