Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

619
FXUS64 KMAF 171735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front moved into the area this morning and as of 17z was
pushing through the Trans Pecos region. Most TAF sites can
expect MVFR cigs with some IFR possible. Currently have scattered
light showers over much of the area but showers and storms are
expected to increase in coverage this afternoon and tonight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 448 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A dryline retreated west overnight allowing scattered showers to
develop across the area this morning. Models are showing these
showers will diminish later this morning with the best rain
chances in the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where
strong instability will combine with the surface convergence of an
advancing cold front.

Tonight isentropic lift behind the front will increase with the
approach of an upper low helping to increase rain coverage. The
lack of a good focus for surface convergence means convection will
be scattered and there will be some locations that will miss out
on the rain. Rain chances peak Wednesday night before the low
moves east of the area. Unfortunately the low will be weakening,
positively tilted, and moving northeast as it crosses the Rockies
which is far from optimal for giving us rainfall; therefore kept
PoPs below guidance through the next several days. We dry out late
in the week but could see a return of scattered convection over
the weekend as another low drops in the western states.

Surface observations show a cold front is currently moving into
the Permian Basin, but it`s progress will slow during the day not
moving south of I-20 until this afternoon. This will give areas
ahead of the front time to heat up this afternoon and so went
above forecast guidance for highs today. Tomorrow will be cooler
behind the front and coupled with increased clouds will keep
highs 15 to 20 degrees lower. MAV guidance should be too low
unless rainfall is more than expected so generally split the
difference between it and the MET for highs Wednesday. Thursday
begins a gradual warm up that will last into the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     55  65  56  75 /  50  50  60  40
Carlsbad                       55  67  55  78 /  40  50  60  30
Dryden                         64  79  63  83 /  40  50  50  40
Fort Stockton                  59  72  59  79 /  40  50  60  30
Guadalupe Pass                 49  61  50  74 /  40  50  50  20
Hobbs                          52  64  53  75 /  40  50  60  30
Marfa                          54  74  52  78 /  30  30  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           55  66  56  77 /  50  50  60  40
Odessa                         55  66  56  77 /  50  50  60  30
Wink                           57  70  58  81 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening through
     Wednesday morning for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.