Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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597
FXUS64 KMAF 111128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds and fog cover most of W TX and SE NM. LIFR conditions
will continue through the morning at area TAF sites except for FST
which may be able to avoid it. Expect conditions to come up to
high MVFR/VFR during the afternoon before falling back to LIFR/IFR
overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Abundant low level moisture resulting in yet another morning of fog
and low stratus, mainly across SE NM and eastern portions of west
TX. Visibility at a few locations have diminished below 1/4 mile at
times but not persistently low and widespread enough to warrant a
Fog Advisory at this time. Will continue to mention reduced
visibilities in HWO for now.

Upper ridging will build over the region today and tomorrow, with a
continued warming trend headed into the weekend. By Friday and
Saturday, high temps will climb to the upper 60s to mid 70s, which
is roughly 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Rain
chances will be nil during this time however continued low level
moisture will remain in place, resulting in overnight stratus and
patchy fog Friday/Saturday mornings. Will continue to forecast
overnight lows slightly above guidance with persistent cloud cover
expected at night.

Upper flow will back to the SW Saturday, ahead of the next upper
system set to bring in the next shot for some areas to see rain. At
the moment, this upper feature is forecast to swing through the
Desert SW Saturday night then closing off over NM before heading
through the TX Panhandle and on into OK by Monday. Given this track,
the best upper forcing for ascent would be farther north so will
continue best chances for thunderstorms across northern zones early
Sunday. An associated pacific front is expected to move east through
the region throughout the day so there is also a possibility for
thunderstorms to develop mainly across far eastern zones through the
afternoon. The front will knock temps back down toward normal
readings and will likely leave some gusty west winds in its wake.
Gusts are expected to quickly subside after sunset. Most areas
across SE NM and the Davis Mtns will finally see low temps near or
below freezing early Monday morning. Cooler air will continue to
filter southward through the beginning of the work week as a surface
ridge settles into the region. Highs will be slightly below normal
Mon-Wed with overnight lows feeling a little more like Winter around
here.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist over the region through
much of the upcoming week with conditions remaining dry. The next
upper trough that looks to affect W TX and SE NM may increase rain
chances toward the very end of this forecast package (Thurs/Fri).
Confidence in the forecast models that far out is very low so will
only hold onto silent PoPs during this time frame for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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