Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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152
FXUS64 KMAF 301116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs/vis
through this morning and the potential for thunderstorms today.
Currently have an area of light to moderate showers affecting SE NM
extending south to near the Davis Mountains early this morning.
Conditions have slowly deteriorated over the last couple of hours
with fairly spotty MVFR/IFR cigs affecting most terminals. Have most
terminals returning to VFR by mid morning however with the current
shower activity, CNM and HOB may hold on to low cigs a bit
longer...maybe through noon. Will continue SHRA at all but MAF but
TS is definitely possible later today and could affect any and all
terminals. Nailing down exact timing and location is too difficult
at this time and will instead monitor radar trends and amend when
needed or adjust accordingly in subsequent TAF issuances. Otherwise,
winds will generally be from the E/NE aob 10kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Convection has increased across the area since midnight though
most of the shower activity has remained light to moderate.
However this rain is aligning in the same areas that have
received a lot of rain recently and any more could cause more
flash flooding concerns...especially from southeast New Mexico
into the Big Bend. Therefore have extended the Flash Flood Watch
out through this evening with the possibility that the day shift
may need to extend it once more into tonight. By tomorrow it
appears the areal coverage of rainfall will be diminishing and it
does not look likely that the watch will need to be extended
beyond that. Rain chances do not disappear entirely but this
weekend certainly looks drier than the past several days have
been. Along with the drier conditions we can expect high
temperatures increase back up to near normal...from the upper 80s
to lower 90s with the hottest readings along the Rio Grande.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  69  88  69 /  50  40  30  30
Carlsbad                       78  67  80  66 /  70  70  50  40
Dryden                         85  71  92  72 /  50  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  82  67  84  68 /  50  50  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 70  61  75  62 /  70  50  50  40
Hobbs                          80  65  77  65 /  60  60  50  40
Marfa                          77  61  78  61 /  60  30  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           84  67  85  69 /  50  40  30  30
Odessa                         83  67  84  69 /  50  40  30  30
Wink                           85  69  86  70 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

27/10
922
FXUS64 KMAF 300838
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has increased across the area since midnight though
most of the shower activity has remained light to moderate.
However this rain is aligning in the same areas that have
received a lot of rain recently and any more could cause more
flash flooding concerns...especially from southeast New Mexico
into the Big Bend. Therefore have extended the Flash Flood Watch
out through this evening with the possibility that the day shift
may need to extend it once more into tonight. By tomorrow it
appears the areal coverage of rainfall will be diminishing and it
does not look likely that the watch will need to be extended
beyond that. Rain chances do not disappear entirely but this
weekend certainly looks drier than the past several days have
been. Along with the drier conditions we can expect high
temperatures increase back up to near normal...from the upper 80s
to lower 90s with the hottest readings along the Rio Grande.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  69  88  69 /  50  40  30  30
Carlsbad                       78  67  80  66 /  70  70  50  40
Dryden                         85  71  92  72 /  50  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  82  67  84  68 /  50  50  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 70  61  75  62 /  70  50  50  40
Hobbs                          80  65  77  65 /  60  60  50  40
Marfa                          77  61  78  61 /  60  30  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           84  67  85  69 /  50  40  30  30
Odessa                         83  67  84  69 /  50  40  30  30
Wink                           85  69  86  70 /  60  60  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Andrews-Big Bend Area-
     Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

27/10
059
FXUS64 KMAF 300537
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the potential for
low cigs/vis through the early morning and thunderstorms mainly
Tuesday afternoon. Currently have a few light showers around the
area with only a few thunderstorms SE of FST tonight. VFR currently
prevailing but think there is a decent chance terminals will see
MVFR/IFR cigs developing over the next few hours, lasting through
mid morning. Have included SHRA in prevailing groups given the
spotty activity and the uncertainty in how the remainder of the
night will go as far as additional convection goes. Will continue to
monitor radar/satellite trends and amend if needed. Otherwise,
winds will generally be from the E/NE aob 10kt.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Bottom line up top...
*  Flash flood watch in effect for much of west Texas and all of
   southeastern New Mexico until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT Tuesday.
*  Impacts greatest across northwestern Permian Basin, Lea County
   NM.
*  Moist and unsettled conditions through rest of week.

Ingredients-based approach to flash flooding painting a bullseye
on Andrews and Gaines counties of west Texas this afternoon as
rich moisture transport, an unstable airmass, and weak steering
flow combine for training echoes. We expect these conditions to
become a bit more organized late this afternoon/early this
evening, ranging from the Big Bend north across the central and
western Basin and from there west across southeastern New Mexico.

Andrews 2E West Texas Mesonet saw 2"/hour rainfall rates earlier
this afternoon, and this figures given a deep (3 km) warm layer
promoting efficient collision/coalescence rain processes, a
saturated airmass with precipitable water values in the 1.6"-1.8"
range (2 s.d. above climatology), and weak steering flow. Deep
layer lift is a given with minor impulses coming around an upper
low over the Four Corners. Moisture transport flux looks to be
most impressive tonight with 850 hPa mixing ratios near 16 g/kg
and net east flow pumping more moisture into convective towers.
Widespread 1"-2" rains likely in the flash flood watch area, with
isolated amounts exceeding 6" expected across Lea County east
across the northwestern Basin. The wind threat doesn`t appear that
impressive; however, wet microbursts with outflow nearing 50 mph
isn`t out of the question. Lastly, there`s a decent bit of parcel
acceleration seen in the model soundings in the -15C to -25C
layer, thus occasional to frequent lightning will also be a
threat.

Rain will taper off a bit in the morning hours Tuesday before a
second round is forecast, mainly for southeastern New Mexico,
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Precip forecasts for Tuesday not as
much as what we`ll see overnight owing to some drier air impinging
from the east. Beyond Tuesday, expect a slight warming trend with
temperatures in the 85-95F range and lows generally in the 60s.
Rain chances will decrease through the week but will still be
present, with the best chances found over the mountains and
adjacent plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  86  70  87 /  50  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       65  80  66  83 /  70  50  40  40
Dryden                         70  87  71  90 /  50  40  20  20
Fort Stockton                  65  85  67  86 /  60  40  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 59  74  61  76 /  60  50  30  40
Hobbs                          64  81  64  81 /  60  50  40  40
Marfa                          60  77  61  79 /  60  40  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  85  68  87 /  50  40  30  40
Odessa                         67  85  68  86 /  50  40  30  40
Wink                           67  86  68  87 /  70  40  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     and Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

27/10/
451
FXUS64 KMAF 292208
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show a band of convection running N-S just west of
KMAF, w/models very generally trending this feature westward thru
the night. Forecast soundings are all over the place for onset of
stratus overnight, so timing confidence remains low. Thus, we`ll
aim for the 04-06Z time frame, and adjust as necessary. Forecast
soundings and moisture fields suggest lower cigs west
w/convection, w/a few hours of LIFR stratus not unreasonable,
given low Td depressions across the area. We`ll generally scatter
cigs to VFR late morning Tuesday, but lwr cigs may persist a few
hrs longer some terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Bottom line up top...
*  Flash flood watch in effect for much of west Texas and all of
   southeastern New Mexico until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT Tuesday.
*  Impacts greatest across northwestern Permian Basin, Lea County
   NM.
*  Moist and unsettled conditions through rest of week.

Ingredients-based approach to flash flooding painting a bullseye
on Andrews and Gaines counties of west Texas this afternoon as
rich moisture transport, an unstable airmass, and weak steering
flow combine for training echoes. We expect these conditions to
become a bit more organized late this afternoon/early this
evening, ranging from the Big Bend north across the central and
western Basin and from there west across southeastern New Mexico.

Andrews 2E West Texas Mesonet saw 2"/hour rainfall rates earlier
this afternoon, and this figures given a deep (3 km) warm layer
promoting efficient collision/coalescence rain processes, a
saturated airmass with precipitable water values in the 1.6"-1.8"
range (2 s.d. above climatology), and weak steering flow. Deep
layer lift is a given with minor impulses coming around an upper
low over the Four Corners. Moisture transport flux looks to be
most impressive tonight with 850 hPa mixing ratios near 16 g/kg
and net east flow pumping more moisture into convective towers.
Widespread 1"-2" rains likely in the flash flood watch area, with
isolated amounts exceeding 6" expected across Lea County east
across the northwestern Basin. The wind threat doesn`t appear that
impressive; however, wet microbursts with outflow nearing 50 mph
isn`t out of the question. Lastly, there`s a decent bit of parcel
acceleration seen in the model soundings in the -15C to -25C
layer, thus occasional to frequent lightning will also be a
threat.

Rain will taper off a bit in the morning hours Tuesday before a
second round is forecast, mainly for southeastern New Mexico,
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Precip forecasts for Tuesday not as
much as what we`ll see overnight owing to some drier air impinging
from the east. Beyond Tuesday, expect a slight warming trend with
temperatures in the 85-95F range and lows generally in the 60s.
Rain chances will decrease through the week but will still be
present, with the best chances found over the mountains and
adjacent plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  85  68  86 /  60  50  50  40
Carlsbad                       66  76  65  80 /  90  80  70  50
Dryden                         71  85  70  87 /  70  50  50  40
Fort Stockton                  65  81  65  85 /  70  60  60  40
Guadalupe Pass                 59  71  59  74 /  70  80  60  50
Hobbs                          63  77  64  81 /  90  70  60  50
Marfa                          61  75  60  77 /  80  70  60  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  67  85 /  70  60  50  40
Odessa                         67  83  67  85 /  70  60  50  40
Wink                           67  83  67  86 /  80  70  70  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

44/80/44
023
FXUS64 KMAF 291958
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
258 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Bottom line up top...
*  Flash flood watch in effect for much of west Texas and all of
   southeastern New Mexico until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT Tuesday.
*  Impacts greatest across northwestern Permian Basin, Lea County
   NM.
*  Moist and unsettled conditions through rest of week.

Ingredients-based approach to flash flooding painting a bullseye
on Andrews and Gaines counties of west Texas this afternoon as
rich moisture transport, an unstable airmass, and weak steering
flow combine for training echoes. We expect these conditions to
become a bit more organized late this afternoon/early this
evening, ranging from the Big Bend north across the central and
western Basin and from there west across southeastern New Mexico.

Andrews 2E West Texas Mesonet saw 2"/hour rainfall rates earlier
this afternoon, and this figures given a deep (3 km) warm layer
promoting efficient collision/coalescence rain processes, a
saturated airmass with precipitable water values in the 1.6"-1.8"
range (2 s.d. above climatology), and weak steering flow. Deep
layer lift is a given with minor impulses coming around an upper
low over the Four Corners. Moisture transport flux looks to be
most impressive tonight with 850 hPa mixing ratios near 16 g/kg
and net east flow pumping more moisture into convective towers.
Widespread 1"-2" rains likely in the flash flood watch area, with
isolated amounts exceeding 6" expected across Lea County east
across the northwestern Basin. The wind threat doesn`t appear that
impressive; however, wet microbursts with outflow nearing 50 mph
isn`t out of the question. Lastly, there`s a decent bit of parcel
acceleration seen in the model soundings in the -15C to -25C
layer, thus occasional to frequent lightning will also be a
threat.

Rain will taper off a bit in the morning hours Tuesday before a
second round is forecast, mainly for southeastern New Mexico,
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Precip forecasts for Tuesday not as
much as what we`ll see overnight owing to some drier air impinging
from the east. Beyond Tuesday, expect a slight warming trend with
temperatures in the 85-95F range and lows generally in the 60s.
Rain chances will decrease through the week but will still be
present, with the best chances found over the mountains and
adjacent plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  85  68  86 /  60  50  50  40
Carlsbad                       66  76  65  80 /  90  80  70  50
Dryden                         71  85  70  87 /  70  50  50  40
Fort Stockton                  65  81  65  85 /  70  60  60  40
Guadalupe Pass                 59  71  59  74 /  70  80  60  50
Hobbs                          63  77  64  81 /  90  70  60  50
Marfa                          61  75  60  77 /  80  70  60  40
Midland Intl Airport           67  83  67  85 /  70  60  50  40
Odessa                         67  83  67  85 /  70  60  50  40
Wink                           67  83  67  86 /  80  70  70  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

12/70
388
FXUS64 KMAF 291654
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1154 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A nearly stationary upper level disturbance across western New
Mexico will interact with copious amounts of moisture to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and continuing overnight across west Texas and southeast New
Mexico. Confidence was high enough to include TEMPO MVFR groups
for rain and thunderstorms at all the terminals beginning late
this afternoon and continuing overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Showers persist over the Permian basin, but thunderstorms have
waned. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the day, if not
most of the night. Thunderstorms are expected to develop again
this afternoon, but will wait another issuance to get a better
handle on which terminals will be affected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

Heavy rain has fallen across much of Lea Co and the northwest
Permian Basin overnight. Some spots have picked up over 5 inches
of rain causing areas of flash flooding. Scattered showers and a
few storms continue across the central Permian Basin early this
morning. Expect this to continue for a few more hours before this
morning round of convection dissipates.

Little will change today as an upper low slowly moves east into NM
and keeps deep moisture streaming overhead. Lift east of the low
will combine with surface heating to help generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially across SE NM and the higher terrain of
W TX. Convection may spread east again overnight as a modest low
level jet develops. Heavy rain will remain the greatest concern over
the next few days with PWATs well over our seasonal norms. Will
issue a Flash Flood Watch for the western 3/4 of the CWA. This is
where the heaviest rain has fallen over the past few days and
where the best chance for convection will be today/tonight.

The upper low will more or less evolve into a weakness early this
week. This weakness will stick around leading to more showers and
thunderstorms each day through at least Thursday. Temperatures
will also remain below normal until at least the latter part of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  86  69  87 /  50  50  40  40
Carlsbad                       66  75  65  80 /  70  70  60  50
Dryden                         71  87  71  88 /  50  50  40  40
Fort Stockton                  66  82  66  85 /  60  50  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 60  69  60  73 /  60  70  50  50
Hobbs                          64  76  64  80 /  60  60  60  50
Marfa                          62  74  61  77 /  50  60  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           68  83  68  85 /  50  50  50  40
Odessa                         68  84  68  85 /  50  50  50  40
Wink                           68  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

67/29
650
FXUS64 KMAF 291057
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
557 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers persist over the Permian basin, but thunderstorms have
waned. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the day, if not
most of the night. Thunderstorms are expected to develop again
this afternoon, but will wait another issuance to get a better
handle on which terminals will be affected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

Heavy rain has fallen across much of Lea Co and the northwest
Permian Basin overnight. Some spots have picked up over 5 inches
of rain causing areas of flash flooding. Scattered showers and a
few storms continue across the central Permian Basin early this
morning. Expect this to continue for a few more hours before this
morning round of convection dissipates.

Little will change today as an upper low slowly moves east into NM
and keeps deep moisture streaming overhead. Lift east of the low
will combine with surface heating to help generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially across SE NM and the higher terrain of
W TX. Convection may spread east again overnight as a modest low
level jet develops. Heavy rain will remain the greatest concern over
the next few days with PWATs well over our seasonal norms. Will
issue a Flash Flood Watch for the western 3/4 of the CWA. This is
where the heaviest rain has fallen over the past few days and
where the best chance for convection will be today/tonight.

The upper low will more or less evolve into a weakness early this
week. This weakness will stick around leading to more showers and
thunderstorms each day through at least Thursday. Temperatures
will also remain below normal until at least the latter part of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  69  86  69 /  40  50  50  40
Carlsbad                       79  66  75  65 /  60  70  70  60
Dryden                         88  71  87  71 /  50  50  50  40
Fort Stockton                  83  66  82  66 /  60  60  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 72  60  69  60 /  60  60  70  50
Hobbs                          79  64  76  64 /  60  60  60  60
Marfa                          76  62  74  61 /  70  50  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           84  68  83  68 /  50  50  50  50
Odessa                         84  68  84  68 /  50  50  50  50
Wink                           85  68  82  68 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

67/29
470
FXUS64 KMAF 290916
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
416 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has fallen across much of Lea Co and the northwest
Permian Basin overnight. Some spots have picked up over 5 inches
of rain causing areas of flash flooding. Scattered showers and a
few storms continue across the central Permian Basin early this
morning. Expect this to continue for a few more hours before this
morning round of convection dissipates.

Little will change today as an upper low slowly moves east into NM
and keeps deep moisture streaming overhead. Lift east of the low
will combine with surface heating to help generate scattered showers
and thunderstorms, especially across SE NM and the higher terrain of
W TX. Convection may spread east again overnight as a modest low
level jet develops. Heavy rain will remain the greatest concern over
the next few days with PWATs well over our seasonal norms. Will
issue a Flash Flood Watch for the western 3/4 of the CWA. This is
where the heaviest rain has fallen over the past few days and
where the best chance for convection will be today/tonight.

The upper low will more or less evolve into a weakness early this
week. This weakness will stick around leading to more showers and
thunderstorms each day through at least Thursday. Temperatures
will also remain below normal until at least the latter part of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  69  86  69 /  40  50  50  40
Carlsbad                       79  66  75  65 /  60  70  70  60
Dryden                         88  71  87  71 /  50  50  50  40
Fort Stockton                  83  66  82  66 /  60  60  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 72  60  69  60 /  60  60  70  50
Hobbs                          79  64  76  64 /  60  60  60  60
Marfa                          76  62  74  61 /  70  50  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           84  68  83  68 /  50  50  50  50
Odessa                         84  68  84  68 /  50  50  50  50
Wink                           85  68  82  68 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Andrews-Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

67/29
470
FXUS64 KMAF 290459
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

An area of showers and thunderstorms from east of Carlsbad to
Hobbs, and south to near Wink and Midland, will persist through at
least 29/07Z, and possibly expand south on outflow winds.
Therefore, will keep TSRA going at KHOB, and include same at KINK,
KMAF and KPEQ.  Will monitor KCNM and KFST to add them later, if
necessary.  Mid and high cloud cover will abound over the
forecast area tonight and perhaps through the afternoon, with some
MVFR ceilings attempting to form through 29/12Z.  Have included
temporary lower conditions at most terminals for now, but may have
to change to prevailing.  VFR conditions are expected this
afternoon, but more thunderstorms could affect some of the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  69  86 /  30  40  40  40
Carlsbad                       68  80  67  80 /  60  60  60  60
Dryden                         72  89  72  88 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  67  83  66  83 /  40  50  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 62  72  61  72 /  50  60  60  60
Hobbs                          64  80  64  80 /  60  60  60  50
Marfa                          60  77  61  76 /  50  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  84  68  85 /  40  50  50  40
Odessa                         70  85  67  85 /  40  50  50  40
Wink                           70  86  69  85 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
101
FXUS64 KMAF 282225
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show widespread convection across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, firing off multiple
boundaries, including one approaching KMAF from the south. Models
suggest this could carry one well into the overnight hours, and
we`ll update termianls as needed. Otherwise, forecast soundings
suggest widespread stratus developing overnight, w/LIFR cigs
possible KMAF/KCNM/KHOB near 12Z or so. MVFR conditions should
prevail further S and W. Cigs look slow to scatter out Monday
afternoon, if at all.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Started the day stuck between an upper low over the 4 corners
region and one on the TX coast with the sub tropical ridge
extending in from VA. The 4 corners low will get pulled NE while
the gulf low meanders down the coast before weakening. By mid week
the upper ridge will become more established over the Central
Plains with the next upper trough swinging over the NW late in the
week.

A surface ridge will build south Monday pushing a weak boundary
through the area with the wind becoming east to northeast.  As far
as temps not expecting much change in overnight readings.  With
plentiful clouds and rain/outflows will keep temps below normal
through midweek.

Currently in a wet pattern... still looking good for heavy rain
potential in SE NM but timing may be a little later... not just
tonight but may carry well into Monday.  May start first in Lea Co
with precip moving down into/developing over Eddy later.  The
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for tonight does have a slight risk over
SE NM down to Alpine.  Have considered a Flash Flood Watch for
tonight and possibly tomorrow mainly for SE NM but after
coordinating with ABQ and LUB have decided to wait for the time
being.  This afternoon have storms firing over the Davis Mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and along the Eastern Permian Basin.  Rain chances
continue in the forecast through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  69  86 /  30  40  40  40
Carlsbad                       68  80  67  80 /  60  60  60  60
Dryden                         72  89  72  88 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  67  83  66  83 /  40  50  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 62  72  61  72 /  50  60  60  60
Hobbs                          64  80  64  80 /  60  60  60  50
Marfa                          60  77  61  76 /  50  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  84  68  85 /  40  50  50  40
Odessa                         70  85  67  85 /  40  50  50  40
Wink                           70  86  69  85 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
041
FXUS64 KMAF 281837
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Started the day stuck between an upper low over the 4 corners
region and one on the TX coast with the sub tropical ridge
extending in from VA. The 4 corners low will get pulled NE while
the gulf low meanders down the coast before weakening. By mid week
the upper ridge will become more established over the Central
Plains with the next upper trough swinging over the NW late in the
week.

A surface ridge will build south Monday pushing a weak boundary
through the area with the wind becoming east to northeast.  As far
as temps not expecting much change in overnight readings.  With
plentiful clouds and rain/outflows will keep temps below normal
through midweek.

Currently in a wet pattern... still looking good for heavy rain
potential in SE NM but timing may be a little later... not just
tonight but may carry well into Monday.  May start first in Lea Co
with precip moving down into/developing over Eddy later.  The
Excessive Rainfall Outlook for tonight does have a slight risk over
SE NM down to Alpine.  Have considered a Flash Flood Watch for
tonight and possibly tomorrow mainly for SE NM but after
coordinating with ABQ and LUB have decided to wait for the time
being.  This afternoon have storms firing over the Davis Mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and along the Eastern Permian Basin.  Rain chances
continue in the forecast through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  87  69  86 /  30  40  40  40
Carlsbad                       68  80  67  80 /  60  60  60  60
Dryden                         72  89  72  88 /  30  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  67  83  66  83 /  40  50  50  40
Guadalupe Pass                 62  72  61  72 /  50  60  60  60
Hobbs                          64  80  64  80 /  60  60  60  50
Marfa                          60  77  61  76 /  50  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  84  68  85 /  40  50  50  40
Odessa                         70  85  67  85 /  40  50  50  40
Wink                           70  86  69  85 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
782
FXUS64 KMAF 281645
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A strong upper level disturbance across Arizona and New Mexico
will interact with copious amounts of moisture to produce
scattered to numerous thunderstorms beginning this afternoon and
continuing overnight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico.
Confidence was high enough to include TEMPO MVFR groups for
thunderstorms with gusty winds at all the terminals beginning
late this afternoon or early this evening and continuing
overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all area terminals today.
However, KCNM and KHOB could be affected by TSRA this morning,
with all sites possibly having thunderstorms this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

Water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous upper low spinning over
AZ this morning with SW flow bringing abundant moisture across
our region. This low will move slowly east over the next couple of
days before weakening into an elongated trough over the Rockies. A
surface trough resides over SE NM and should become a focus for
showers and storms later today. Other boundaries left over from
evening and overnight convection are also spread across the area.
Atmospheric conditions look more favorable for convection today
than Saturday as ascent spreads over the area and a jet streak
provides upper level diffluence. Storms could last well into the
night as a modest low level jet develops. Training cells may lead
to more heavy rain and localized flash flooding. A Flash Flood
Watch may be needed for parts of the area later today.

As the upper low weakens over NM early this week, mid level ridging
to our east and west will keep a weak trough over our region. With
daytime heating and periodic disturbances moving overhead, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Confidence is fairly
low by late week as models indicate a ridge building over the
area, but keep a moist environment in place over the region.
Believe models are overdoing QPF a bit and for now will go under
SuperBlend PoPs, but temperatures should climb closer to normal
late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  69  87  69 /  30  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       86  67  79  66 /  40  60  60  60
Dryden                         91  72  89  72 /  30  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  88  68  84  67 /  40  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 79  62  72  61 /  50  50  60  60
Hobbs                          83  64  77  64 /  40  60  60  60
Marfa                          79  62  76  62 /  50  50  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           89  68  85  68 /  30  40  50  50
Odessa                         89  69  85  67 /  30  40  50  50
Wink                           89  69  84  68 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
585
FXUS64 KMAF 281057
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
557 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected at all area terminals today.
However, KCNM and KHOB could be affected by TSRA this morning,
with all sites possibly having thunderstorms this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

Water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous upper low spinning over
AZ this morning with SW flow bringing abundant moisture across
our region. This low will move slowly east over the next couple of
days before weakening into an elongated trough over the Rockies. A
surface trough resides over SE NM and should become a focus for
showers and storms later today. Other boundaries left over from
evening and overnight convection are also spread across the area.
Atmospheric conditions look more favorable for convection today
than Saturday as ascent spreads over the area and a jet streak
provides upper level diffluence. Storms could last well into the
night as a modest low level jet develops. Training cells may lead
to more heavy rain and localized flash flooding. A Flash Flood
Watch may be needed for parts of the area later today.

As the upper low weakens over NM early this week, mid level ridging
to our east and west will keep a weak trough over our region. With
daytime heating and periodic disturbances moving overhead, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Confidence is fairly
low by late week as models indicate a ridge building over the
area, but keep a moist environment in place over the region.
Believe models are overdoing QPF a bit and for now will go under
SuperBlend PoPs, but temperatures should climb closer to normal
late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  69  87  69 /  30  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       86  67  79  66 /  40  60  60  60
Dryden                         91  72  89  72 /  30  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  88  68  84  67 /  40  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 79  62  72  61 /  50  50  60  60
Hobbs                          83  64  77  64 /  40  60  60  60
Marfa                          79  62  76  62 /  50  50  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           89  68  85  68 /  30  40  50  50
Odessa                         89  69  85  67 /  30  40  50  50
Wink                           89  69  84  68 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
529
FXUS64 KMAF 280852
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
352 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Water vapor imagery shows a rather vigorous upper low spinning over
AZ this morning with SW flow bringing abundant moisture across
our region. This low will move slowly east over the next couple of
days before weakening into an elongated trough over the Rockies. A
surface trough resides over SE NM and should become a focus for
showers and storms later today. Other boundaries left over from
evening and overnight convection are also spread across the area.
Atmospheric conditions look more favorable for convection today
than Saturday as ascent spreads over the area and a jet streak
provides upper level diffluence. Storms could last well into the
night as a modest low level jet develops. Training cells may lead
to more heavy rain and localized flash flooding. A Flash Flood
Watch may be needed for parts of the area later today.

As the upper low weakens over NM early this week, mid level ridging
to our east and west will keep a weak trough over our region. With
daytime heating and periodic disturbances moving overhead, showers
and thunderstorms will be possible each day. Confidence is fairly
low by late week as models indicate a ridge building over the
area, but keep a moist environment in place over the region.
Believe models are overdoing QPF a bit and for now will go under
SuperBlend PoPs, but temperatures should climb closer to normal
late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  69  87  69 /  30  30  40  40
Carlsbad                       86  67  79  66 /  40  60  60  60
Dryden                         91  72  89  72 /  30  30  40  40
Fort Stockton                  88  68  84  67 /  40  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 79  62  72  61 /  50  50  60  60
Hobbs                          83  64  77  64 /  40  60  60  60
Marfa                          79  62  76  62 /  50  50  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           89  68  85  68 /  30  40  50  50
Odessa                         89  69  85  67 /  30  40  50  50
Wink                           89  69  84  68 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
557
FXUS64 KMAF 280452
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A thunderstorm or two may bubble up overnight, and possibly affect
one or more of the terminals.  However, probabilities are too low to
include at any given terminal.  VFR will prevail otherwise, but
thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon.  Again, the
probability is too low to include at any area terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  10  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  20  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  10  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  20  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  20  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  20  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  10  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
723
FXUS64 KMAF 280040 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Please see the forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Have scaled back PoPs a bit across west Texas and southeastern New
Mexico. Subsidence out ahead of the approaching quasi-tropical
system off the LA coast is noted in both WV imagery and radar
trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

A few isolated storms are ongoing this evening, though probability
for impact at any terminal is too low to include mention. Thus,
will continue to monitor and amend if needed this evening. A
westward-moving outflow boundary will affect MAF within the first
hour of the forecast period, with winds backing to the east and
gusts up to around 18kt possible. Southeasterly winds are expected
to return by 01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail, with southeast winds generally 12kt or less areawide.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains over the SE US with a broad trough extending
from the Dakotas down across Utah.  This trough will pinch off
leaving a cut off low over the 4 Corners region.  This low is
expected to be pulled NE around the top of the ridge.  Also have an
upper low along the TX coast hang around for a few days... will have
to see if affects our wx or not.

As August winds down the unseasonably cool temperatures continue.
Expect near persistence tonight with low temps as little change in
the pattern.  Should be about the same Sunday as today.  Models
continue to show a weak frontal boundary/wind shift sagging down
into the area early Monday with the wind becoming mainly easterly
through Tuesday.  Monday is looking cloudy and with the easterly
wind should be cooler.  Temps slowly warm to near normal by late in
the week.

So far today there has been little in the way of precipitation but
as of 18z have stated getting a few radar echos from near Queen...
to Kent... to Alpine... to near Fort Stockton.  With plentiful
moisture and daytime have enhanced CU field over much of the Permian
Basin... expanded slight chance across the east tonight but have
highest pops over the higher elevations.  Do have a number of old
outflow boundaries from yesterday that could become a focus for storm
development.  ETA qpf does brings precip down across the Northern
Permian Basin this evening.  QPF hitting Eddy Co hard Sunday
night... locally heavy rain possible... have increased pops to 50
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  10  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  20  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  10  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  20  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  20  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  20  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  10  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  10  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/70
553
FXUS64 KMAF 272320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
620 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few isolated storms are ongoing this evening, though probability
for impact at any terminal is too low to include mention. Thus,
will continue to monitor and amend if needed this evening. A
westward-moving outflow boundary will affect MAF within the first
hour of the forecast period, with winds backing to the east and
gusts up to around 18kt possible. Southeasterly winds are expected
to return by 01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail, with southeast winds generally 12kt or less areawide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains over the SE US with a broad trough extending
from the Dakotas down across Utah.  This trough will pinch off
leaving a cut off low over the 4 Corners region.  This low is
expected to be pulled NE around the top of the ridge.  Also have an
upper low along the TX coast hang around for a few days... will have
to see if affects our wx or not.

As August winds down the unseasonably cool temperatures continue.
Expect near persistence tonight with low temps as little change in
the pattern.  Should be about the same Sunday as today.  Models
continue to show a weak frontal boundary/wind shift sagging down
into the area early Monday with the wind becoming mainly easterly
through Tuesday.  Monday is looking cloudy and with the easterly
wind should be cooler.  Temps slowly warm to near normal by late in
the week.

So far today there has been little in the way of precipitation but
as of 18z have stated getting a few radar echos from near Queen...
to Kent... to Alpine... to near Fort Stockton.  With plentiful
moisture and daytime have enhanced CU field over much of the Permian
Basin... expanded slight chance across the east tonight but have
highest pops over the higher elevations.  Do have a number of old
outflow boundaries from yesterday that could become a focus for storm
development.  ETA qpf does brings precip down across the Northern
Permian Basin this evening.  QPF hitting Eddy Co hard Sunday
night... locally heavy rain possible... have increased pops to 50
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  30  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  30  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  30  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  30  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  20  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
330
FXUS64 KMAF 271837
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge remains over the SE US with a broad trough extending
from the Dakotas down across Utah.  This trough will pinch off
leaving a cut off low over the 4 Corners region.  This low is
expected to be pulled NE around the top of the ridge.  Also have an
upper low along the TX coast hang around for a few days... will have
to see if affects our wx or not.

As August winds down the unseasonably cool temperatures continue.
Expect near persistence tonight with low temps as little change in
the pattern.  Should be about the same Sunday as today.  Models
continue to show a weak frontal boundary/wind shift sagging down
into the area early Monday with the wind becoming mainly easterly
through Tuesday.  Monday is looking cloudy and with the easterly
wind should be cooler.  Temps slowly warm to near normal by late in
the week.

So far today there has been little in the way of precipitation but
as of 18z have stated getting a few radar echos from near Queen...
to Kent... to Alpine... to near Fort Stockton.  With plentiful
moisture and daytime have enhanced CU field over much of the Permian
Basin... expanded slight chance across the east tonight but have
highest pops over the higher elevations.  Do have a number of old
outflow boundaries from yesterday that could become a focus for storm
development.  ETA qpf does brings precip down across the Northern
Permian Basin this evening.  QPF hitting Eddy Co hard Sunday
night... locally heavy rain possible... have increased pops to 50
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  89  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       65  88  66  83 /  30  40  50  50
Dryden                         71  92  72  89 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  86 /  30  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  62  74 /  30  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  85  64  82 /  30  30  40  50
Marfa                          59  81  60  78 /  30  40  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  89  68  87 /  20  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           68  90  68  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
281
FXUS64 KMAF 271701
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and this
evening across the region. Confidence was not great enough to
mention at any of the terminals. Will continually monitor latest
trends however. Winds will generally be southeast at 10 mph or
less.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today, but some
could be affected by thunderstorms this afternoon. Due to low
probability will not make mention this issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

Look for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms
bringing locally heavy rainfall to portions of the area.

For the third night in a row an outflow boundary is moving south
across SE NM and parts of the Permian Basin. This along with several
other leftover boundaries will likely play a role in the location
of convection this afternoon. Weak southwesterly flow aloft will
continue due to an upper level trough developing to our west and a
large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. A plume of mid level
moisture along with periodic disturbances will stream across the
area within this flow. Showers and thunderstorms are again
expected to develop early this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached within an unstable, uncapped environment.
Some of these storms will contain heavy rain given PWATs +1 to +2
SD and training of cells over the same locations.

Expect a repeat each day into early next week as the overall pattern
remains the same. Monday and Tuesday currently look to have the
best chance of rain as moisture rounds an upper low that will set
up over S. TX. Clouds and moisture will continue to keep
temperatures below normal through at least the middle of next
week. Models then indicate a weak upper ridge building with drier
and warmer conditions late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  89  69  87 /  20  30  20  40
Carlsbad                       67  87  66  82 /  20  40  40  50
Dryden                         72  92  72  89 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  89  67  85 /  20  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  79  62  74 /  30  40  40  50
Hobbs                          65  84  64  81 /  20  30  40  50
Marfa                          61  80  62  78 /  20  30  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           69  88  68  87 /  20  30  30  40
Odessa                         70  88  69  86 /  20  30  30  40
Wink                           69  89  68  86 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
533
FXUS64 KMAF 271053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today, but some
could be affected by thunderstorms this afternoon. Due to low
probability will not make mention this issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

Look for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms
bringing locally heavy rainfall to portions of the area.

For the third night in a row an outflow boundary is moving south
across SE NM and parts of the Permian Basin. This along with several
other leftover boundaries will likely play a role in the location
of convection this afternoon. Weak southwesterly flow aloft will
continue due to an upper level trough developing to our west and a
large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. A plume of mid level
moisture along with periodic disturbances will stream across the
area within this flow. Showers and thunderstorms are again
expected to develop early this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached within an unstable, uncapped environment.
Some of these storms will contain heavy rain given PWATs +1 to +2
SD and training of cells over the same locations.

Expect a repeat each day into early next week as the overall pattern
remains the same. Monday and Tuesday currently look to have the
best chance of rain as moisture rounds an upper low that will set
up over S. TX. Clouds and moisture will continue to keep
temperatures below normal through at least the middle of next
week. Models then indicate a weak upper ridge building with drier
and warmer conditions late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  70  89  69 /  30  20  30  20
Carlsbad                       88  67  87  66 /  30  20  40  40
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  30  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  88  68  89  67 /  30  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  79  62 /  40  30  40  40
Hobbs                          84  65  84  64 /  30  20  30  40
Marfa                          80  61  80  62 /  40  20  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  69  88  68 /  30  20  30  30
Odessa                         89  70  88  69 /  30  20  30  30
Wink                           90  69  89  68 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
265
FXUS64 KMAF 270826
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Look for another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms bringing
locally heavy rainfall to portions of the area.

For the third night in a row an outflow boundary is moving south
across SE NM and parts of the Permian Basin. This along with several
other leftover boundaries will likely play a role in the location
of convection this afternoon. Weak southwesterly flow aloft will
continue due to an upper level trough developing to our west and a
large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. A plume of mid level
moisture along with periodic disturbances will stream across the
area within this flow. Showers and thunderstorms are again
expected to develop early this afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached within an unstable, uncapped environment.
Some of these storms will contain heavy rain given PWATs +1 to +2
SD and training of cells over the same locations.

Expect a repeat each day into early next week as the overall pattern
remains the same. Monday and Tuesday currently look to have the
best chance of rain as moisture rounds an upper low that will set
up over S. TX. Clouds and moisture will continue to keep
temperatures below normal through at least the middle of next
week. Models then indicate a weak upper ridge building with drier
and warmer conditions late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  70  89  69 /  30  20  30  20
Carlsbad                       88  67  87  66 /  30  20  40  40
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  30  10  20  20
Fort Stockton                  88  68  89  67 /  30  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  79  62 /  40  30  40  40
Hobbs                          84  65  84  64 /  30  20  30  40
Marfa                          80  61  80  62 /  40  20  30  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  69  88  68 /  30  20  30  30
Odessa                         89  70  88  69 /  30  20  30  30
Wink                           90  69  89  68 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
896
FXUS64 KMAF 270455
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Looking for VFR conditions to prevail overnight and Saturday at all
area terminals. Localized fog, if not lower ceilings could form
due to moist ground, but current trends/progs are not too bullish
in this department. Thunderstorms will develop again today, if
not in the morning, then in the afternoon.  Will wait until the
next issuance to include any mention, since it is unclear which
terminals will be affected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  68  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       64  90  66  88 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  68  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  81  64  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          57  82  58  82 /  40  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           67  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
413
FXUS64 KMAF 262327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered storms are diminishing this evening, though outflow
boundaries will maintain easterly winds at area terminals through
around 02Z before southeasterly winds return. A few storms could
affect HOB through 02Z, with gusty wind/brief heavy rain possible.
The other concern is the potential for MVFR stratus to impact MAF
around 12-15Z, thus have maintained the TEMPO mention for now.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, though thunderstorms will
be possible again Saturday afternoon, yielding potential MVFR
conditions in heavy rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern has a high pressure ridge centered over the SE U.S.
while a broad upper trough extends down from Canada across the
Intermountain West.  The trough pinches off and develops a cut off
low over AZ by Sunday that seems to make little progression east
before weakening.  Early next week the sub tropical ridge builds
west reestablishing itself over the area.

As of early afternoon still have significant cloud cover over much
of the region.  An errattic but predominately south wind field
helping to keep low level moisture elevated across the area with
dewpts in the 60s nearly areawide.  Expect low clouds across the
Permian Basin again Saturday morning.  Not expecting much change in
the surface flow the next couple of days.  By Monday a weak
boundary/wind shift line sags into the area with the wind becoming
easterly along it.

The increased moisture... cloud cover... and area rain has been
keeping temperatures below normal for late August.  MAF has not
recorded a hundred degree reading since Aug 11.  Normal for this
time of year over the Permian Basin is 93 but most of the past week
has had highs in the 80s.  Latest long range forecast continues the
below normal trend into next week.

This afternoon have had significant develop of showers and
thunderstorms over the Eastern Permian Basin down into the Lower
Trans Pecos along a Theta E ridge.  Recent storms have been good
rain producers and training storms could result in locally heavy
rain.  Expecting the higher elevations to develop storms later
today/tonight and Saturday.  Will include pre first period and bump
up pops for this afternoon in the east and have also added isolated
pops east tonight.  A chance of storms continue through the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  68  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       64  90  66  88 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  68  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  81  64  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          57  82  58  82 /  40  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           67  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
804
FXUS64 KMAF 261853
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern has a high pressure ridge centered over the SE U.S.
while a broad upper trough extends down from Canada across the
Intermountain West.  The trough pinches off and develops a cut off
low over AZ by Sunday that seems to make little progression east
before weakening.  Early next week the sub tropical ridge builds
west reestablishing itself over the area.

As of early afternoon still have significant cloud cover over much
of the region.  An errattic but predominately south wind field
helping to keep low level moisture elevated across the area with
dewpts in the 60s nearly areawide.  Expect low clouds across the
Permian Basin again Saturday morning.  Not expecting much change in
the surface flow the next couple of days.  By Monday a weak
boundary/wind shift line sags into the area with the wind becoming
easterly along it.

The increased moisture... cloud cover... and area rain has been
keeping temperatures below normal for late August.  MAF has not
recorded a hundred degree reading since Aug 11.  Normal for this
time of year over the Permian Basin is 93 but most of the past week
has had highs in the 80s.  Latest long range forecast continues the
below normal trend into next week.

This afternoon have had significant develop of showers and
thunderstorms over the Eastern Permian Basin down into the Lower
Trans Pecos along a Theta E ridge.  Recent storms have been good
rain producers and training storms could result in locally heavy
rain.  Expecting the higher elevations to develop storms later
today/tonight and Saturday.  Will include pre first period and bump
up pops for this afternoon in the east and have also added isolated
pops east tonight.  A chance of storms continue through the middle
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  90  68  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       64  90  66  88 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  68  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 60  81  64  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          57  82  58  82 /  40  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           67  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/72
188
FXUS64 KMAF 261701
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1201 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the
west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected through this evening but confidence was
not high enough to include at any of the terminals. MVFR ceilings
are expected to develop at KMAF by 12z Saturday and could continue
until at least 15z Saturday. Expect southeast winds of 5 to 15
mph the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 549 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility could affect KCNM, KHOB and perhaps
KPEQ and KINK through 26/14Z.  However, more high clouds may
spread over these terminals and limit low cloud/fog development.
Farther east, KFST and KMAF appear in line for showers, if not a
thunderstorm, this morning.  Expect VFR conditions at all area
terminals this afternoon.  Thunderstorms could affect terminals
again this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

A few showers and even some storms continue across the area this
morning as a mid level disturbance moves overhead. This is within
southwesterly flow aloft as our region remains on the western edge
of a large subtropical high over the SE U.S. Meanwhile an outflow
boundary is moving south across SE NM and portions of the Permian
Basin. This boundary will likely slow and stall and may become a
focus for more convection later today as daytime heating occurs.
Training cells are possible again today as storms move parallel to
the upper flow. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the main threat especially across western portions
of the area. This is where several inches of rain have fallen over
the past few days and where the focus will remain for the next
several days. At this time it appears the heavy rain will not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but this will
continue to be monitored.

The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while
a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. This
will keep the weather fairly active across our area with a daily
chance of showers and storms and temperatures below normal early
next week. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building
in over the S. Plains late next week with drying conditions and
warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  90 /  10  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       66  88  68  87 /  20  30  20  40
Dryden                         71  92  72  92 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  67  89  68  89 /  20  30  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 63  81  64  79 /  20  30  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  86 /  20  20  20  30
Marfa                          60  81  61  81 /  30  40  20  40
Midland Intl Airport           69  90  69  90 /  20  20  10  30
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  20  10  30
Wink                           69  91  69  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
829
FXUS64 KMAF 261049
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
549 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibility could affect KCNM, KHOB and perhaps
KPEQ and KINK through 26/14Z.  However, more high clouds may
spread over these terminals and limit low cloud/fog development.
Farther east, KFST and KMAF appear in line for showers, if not a
thunderstorm, this morning.  Expect VFR conditions at all area
terminals this afternoon.  Thunderstorms could affect terminals
again this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

A few showers and even some storms continue across the area this
morning as a mid level disturbance moves overhead. This is within
southwesterly flow aloft as our region remains on the western edge
of a large subtropical high over the SE U.S. Meanwhile an outflow
boundary is moving south across SE NM and portions of the Permian
Basin. This boundary will likely slow and stall and may become a
focus for more convection later today as daytime heating occurs.
Training cells are possible again today as storms move parallel to
the upper flow. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the main threat especially across western portions
of the area. This is where several inches of rain have fallen over
the past few days and where the focus will remain for the next
several days. At this time it appears the heavy rain will not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but this will
continue to be monitored.

The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while
a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. This
will keep the weather fairly active across our area with a daily
chance of showers and storms and temperatures below normal early
next week. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building
in over the S. Plains late next week with drying conditions and
warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  71  91  71 /  30  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       86  66  88  68 /  40  20  30  20
Dryden                         91  71  92  72 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  87  67  89  68 /  40  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  81  64 /  50  20  30  20
Hobbs                          83  64  86  65 /  30  20  20  20
Marfa                          80  60  81  61 /  60  30  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  69  90  69 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         87  69  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           88  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
939
FXUS64 KMAF 260808
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
308 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A few showers and even some storms continue across the area this
morning as a mid level disturbance moves overhead. This is within
southwesterly flow aloft as our region remains on the western edge
of a large subtropical high over the SE U.S. Meanwhile an outflow
boundary is moving south across SE NM and portions of the Permian
Basin. This boundary will likely slow and stall and may become a
focus for more convection later today as daytime heating occurs.
Training cells are possible again today as storms move parallel to
the upper flow. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
continue to be the main threat especially across western portions
of the area. This is where several inches of rain have fallen over
the past few days and where the focus will remain for the next
several days. At this time it appears the heavy rain will not be
widespread enough to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, but this will
continue to be monitored.

The subtropical ridge to our east weakens late in the weekend while
a couple of upper lows cut off over northern Mexico and S TX. This
will keep the weather fairly active across our area with a daily
chance of showers and storms and temperatures below normal early
next week. Extended range models indicate an upper ridge building
in over the S. Plains late next week with drying conditions and
warming temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     89  71  91  71 /  30  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       86  66  88  68 /  40  20  30  20
Dryden                         91  71  92  72 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  87  67  89  68 /  40  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  63  81  64 /  50  20  30  20
Hobbs                          83  64  86  65 /  30  20  20  20
Marfa                          80  60  81  61 /  60  30  40  20
Midland Intl Airport           88  69  90  69 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         87  69  89  70 /  30  20  20  10
Wink                           88  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
298
FXUS64 KMAF 260505
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mid and high clouds abound over the region from earlier convection.
The development of low clouds, or fog, later tonight/Friday morning
will hinge upon how much of this higher cloud cover dissipates.
KCNM and KHOB appear to have the best chance of higher clouds
dissipating, so will include lower ceilings/visibility at these
sites. Will hold off including lower conditions at the other
terminals, but monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  92  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
Carlsbad                       66  89  68  87 /  20  30  20  30
Dryden                         72  94  73  91 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  67  89  67  89 /  20  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 64  82  63  79 /  30  40  20  40
Hobbs                          64  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  40
Marfa                          62  82  61  80 /  30  50  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  91  69  89 /  10  20  10  30
Odessa                         70  90  70  88 /  10  20  10  30
Wink                           69  93  70  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
960
FXUS64 KMAF 252324
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms currently ongoing this evening are the primary
concern this forecast period. Expect storms to continue for at
least the next few hours, thus have included mention at all
terminals. Erratic gusty wind and heavy rain could result in
brief MVFR conditions, with VFR conditions expected outside of
storms. FST may see storms beyond 06Z, though have not included
mention at this time. Some low clouds could also develop around
daybreak Friday, will defer to later issuances for potential
inclusion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Morning observations from across the area showed a weak frontal
boundary draped across the northwest Texas Permian Basin and
extending back into Eddy County New Mexico and northern Culberson
County Texas. Primary indications are that this boundary is in
part serving as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm
development that we presently see on radar. As we progress into
the late afternoon and evening, we will see an increase in
coverage with these storms.

With the subtropical ridge being located over the southeast U.S.,
deeper moisture and a series of mid level disturbances have continued
to stream into southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico along the
western periphery of the ridge. With this ridge edging slightly
further westward today, the best chances for rain today should be
over southwest Texas across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, extending
up into southeast New Mexico and the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Afternoon NAM CAPE values of 1200-1700 J/KG along the aforementioned
frontal boundary suggest that storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening could be marginally severe, with the main
threat being wind.

There could be a slight lull in precipitation this weekend as the
subtropical ridge slides further east. However, the overall trend
is for rain chances to continue across the area next week. This
should allow for fire weather concerns to remain at a minimum
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  30
Dryden                         72  92  72  94 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  89  67  89 /  30  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  82  64  82 /  40  50  30  40
Hobbs                          63  86  64  86 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          62  81  62  82 /  40  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  90  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           68  91  69  93 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
685
FXUS64 KMAF 251907
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
207 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Morning observations from across the area showed a weak frontal
boundary draped across the northwest Texas Permian Basin and
extending back into Eddy County New Mexico and northern Culberson
County Texas. Primary indications are that this boundary is in
part serving as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm
development that we presently see on radar. As we progress into
the late afternoon and evening, we will see an increase in
coverage with these storms.

With the subtropical ridge being located over the southeast U.S.,
deeper moisture and a series of mid level disturbances have continued
to stream into southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico along the
western periphery of the ridge. With this ridge edging slightly
further westward today, the best chances for rain today should be
over southwest Texas across the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, extending
up into southeast New Mexico and the northwest Texas Permian Basin.
Afternoon NAM CAPE values of 1200-1700 J/KG along the aforementioned
frontal boundary suggest that storms that do develop this
afternoon and evening could be marginally severe, with the main
threat being wind.

There could be a slight lull in precipitation this weekend as the
subtropical ridge slides further east. However, the overall trend
is for rain chances to continue across the area next week. This
should allow for fire weather concerns to remain at a minimum
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       66  87  66  89 /  40  40  20  30
Dryden                         72  92  72  94 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  89  67  89 /  30  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  82  64  82 /  40  50  30  40
Hobbs                          63  86  64  86 /  50  30  20  20
Marfa                          62  81  62  82 /  40  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  90  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                         69  89  70  90 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           68  91  69  93 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

72/03
014
FXUS64 KMAF 251729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting the development of afternoon/evening thunderstorms
mainly west... especially near HOB and CNM. Isold MVFR cigs near
HOB through 20z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
predominately SE wind.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Parts of the area received heavy rain again yesterday, but
luckily it fell over locations that were fairly dry. Much quieter
on the radar this morning than 24 hours ago so expect a calm
morning weatherwise. By this afternoon more showers and storms
will develop across the area. A large subtropical high over the SE
U.S. nudges west today so the best coverage of precip will be
mainly along and west of the Pecos River. Storms may develop along
outflow boundaries leftover from Wednesday`s convection. Heavy
rain and localized flash flooding will be possible again as
moisture content remains high and storms train over the same
areas.

Not much changes Friday as western portions of the area will remain
favored to get most of the storms. As the mid level high stays in
place to our east a weak ridge will develop to our west this
weekend. This will keep our region in a mid level weakness into
next week with diurnal convection possible each day and
temperatures holding just below normal for late August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  91  71  92 /  10  20  10  20
Carlsbad                       66  85  66  88 /  40  40  20  30
Dryden                         72  90  72  92 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  66  88  67  90 /  30  30  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 61  80  64  81 /  40  50  30  40
Hobbs                          63  85  64  87 /  40  30  20  20
Marfa                          62  80  62  82 /  40  50  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  90  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Odessa                         69  89  70  91 /  20  30  10  20
Wink                           68  89  69  92 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
499
FXUS64 KMAF 250902
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show convection has diminished area-wide, leaving
lots of moisture to work with over the next few days.  Models
suggest stratus forming in places this morning, w/IFR/MVFR cigs
KMAF/KCNM.  Otherwise, forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field around noon, w/bases 2.8-5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Parts of the area received heavy rain again yesterday, but
luckily it fell over locations that were fairly dry. Much quieter
on the radar this morning than 24 hours ago so expect a calm
morning weatherwise. By this afternoon more showers and storms
will develop across the area. A large subtropical high over the SE
U.S. nudges west today so the best coverage of precip will be
mainly along and west of the Pecos River. Storms may develop along
outflow boundaries leftover from Wednesday`s convection. Heavy
rain and localized flash flooding will be possible again as
moisture content remains high and storms train over the same
areas.

Not much changes Friday as western portions of the area will remain
favored to get most of the storms. As the mid level high stays in
place to our east a weak ridge will develop to our west this
weekend. This will keep our region in a mid level weakness into
next week with diurnal convection possible each day and
temperatures holding just below normal for late August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  91  71 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       87  66  85  66 /  50  40  40  20
Dryden                         92  72  90  72 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  66  88  67 /  40  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 80  61  80  64 /  50  40  50  30
Hobbs                          84  63  85  64 /  50  40  30  20
Marfa                          80  62  80  62 /  60  40  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           90  70  90  70 /  30  20  30  10
Odessa                         90  69  89  70 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                           89  68  89  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
448
FXUS64 KMAF 250824
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
324 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Parts of the area received heavy rain again yesterday, but
luckily it fell over locations that were fairly dry. Much quieter
on the radar this morning than 24 hours ago so expect a calm
morning weatherwise. By this afternoon more showers and storms
will develop across the area. A large subtropical high over the SE
U.S. nudges west today so the best coverage of precip will be
mainly along and west of the Pecos River. Storms may develop along
outflow boundaries leftover from Wednesday`s convection. Heavy
rain and localized flash flooding will be possible again as
moisture content remains high and storms train over the same
areas.

Not much changes Friday as western portions of the area will remain
favored to get most of the storms. As the mid level high stays in
place to our east a weak ridge will develop to our west this
weekend. This will keep our region in a mid level weakness into
next week with diurnal convection possible each day and
temperatures holding just below normal for late August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  71  91  71 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       87  66  85  66 /  50  40  40  20
Dryden                         92  72  90  72 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  66  88  67 /  40  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 80  61  80  64 /  50  40  50  30
Hobbs                          84  63  85  64 /  50  40  30  20
Marfa                          80  62  80  62 /  60  40  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           90  70  90  70 /  30  20  30  10
Odessa                         90  69  89  70 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                           89  68  89  69 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29
736
FXUS64 KMAF 250518
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1218 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show convection diminishing over the Permian Basin,
leaving lots of moisture to work with over the next few days.
Models suggest stratus forming overnight, w/MVFR cigs KMAF/KCNM.
Otherwise, forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by
late morning, w/bases 2.4-3.5 kft agl.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper
ridging over the southeast conus.  This pattern has resulted in
south southwest winds aloft over the area.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over parts of the CWA and are expected
to continue across the area today as upper lift and low level
moisture remain over the region.  The PWAT value on the 12z MAF
sounding was 1.59 inches and values are expected to remain around 1
to 2 inches across the area so heavy rain is possible. High
temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday with
highs a little bit below normal.

The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a
little less lift over the area and less low level moisture. However,
there will be enough lift and moisture for showers and storms to
remain across the area with most of the activity across the western
CWA.  Temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up to near
normal values with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.  The upper pattern
does not change much on Friday with southwest winds aloft.
Precipitation will mostly remain confined to the higher terrain and
surrounding plains with highs perhaps a couple of degrees cooler
than the previous day.  The upper trough will become centered over
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday but otherwise not much
change expected from Friday.  The upper ridge begins to spread over
the rest of the southern conus heading into next week but remains
somewhat flattened as upper troughs continue to move over the
northern half of the country.  Southeast surface winds will allow
for low level moisture to remain across the area and for rain and
storm chances to remain through the extended forecast.  Temperatures
in the extended are expected to be below normal with highs mostly in
the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  68  90  69 /  20  20  20  10
Carlsbad                       89  66  89  66 /  50  50  40  20
Dryden                         93  72  92  72 /  20  20  30  10
Fort Stockton                  91  67  89  68 /  30  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 85  62  82  64 /  50  40  50  30
Hobbs                          86  64  86  64 /  50  40  30  20
Marfa                          81  60  82  60 /  60  50  50  30
Midland Intl Airport           92  68  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
Odessa                         91  69  89  69 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                           92  69  90  68 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
610
FXUS64 KMAF 242333
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Currently have thunderstorms moving
NE away from MAF and few down south moving well east of FST this
evening. At this time, it looks as though any additional
thunderstorm development may remain east of terminals overnight but
will continue to monitor radar trends and amend if needed.
Otherwise, thunderstorms will be possible once again Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper
ridging over the southeast conus.  This pattern has resulted in
south southwest winds aloft over the area.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over parts of the CWA and are expected
to continue across the area today as upper lift and low level
moisture remain over the region.  The PWAT value on the 12z MAF
sounding was 1.59 inches and values are expected to remain around 1
to 2 inches across the area so heavy rain is possible. High
temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday with
highs a little bit below normal.

The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a
little less lift over the area and less low level moisture. However,
there will be enough lift and moisture for showers and storms to
remain across the area with most of the activity across the western
CWA.  Temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up to near
normal values with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.  The upper pattern
does not change much on Friday with southwest winds aloft.
Precipitation will mostly remain confined to the higher terrain and
surrounding plains with highs perhaps a couple of degrees cooler
than the previous day.  The upper trough will become centered over
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday but otherwise not much
change expected from Friday.  The upper ridge begins to spread over
the rest of the southern conus heading into next week but remains
somewhat flattened as upper troughs continue to move over the
northern half of the country.  Southeast surface winds will allow
for low level moisture to remain across the area and for rain and
storm chances to remain through the extended forecast.  Temperatures
in the extended are expected to be below normal with highs mostly in
the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  89  66  89 /  20  50  50  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  91  67  89 /  40  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  62  82 /  20  50  40  50
Hobbs                          65  86  64  86 /  40  50  40  30
Marfa                          60  81  60  82 /  40  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  68  90 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         69  91  69  89 /  50  30  20  30
Wink                           69  92  69  90 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/70
043
FXUS64 KMAF 241926
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
226 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is over the southern Rocky Mountains with upper
ridging over the southeast conus.  This pattern has resulted in
south southwest winds aloft over the area.  Showers and
thunderstorms are currently over parts of the CWA and are expected
to continue across the area today as upper lift and low level
moisture remain over the region.  The PWAT value on the 12z MAF
sounding was 1.59 inches and values are expected to remain around 1
to 2 inches across the area so heavy rain is possible. High
temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday with
highs a little bit below normal.

The upper trough lifts slightly northward on Thursday resulting in a
little less lift over the area and less low level moisture. However,
there will be enough lift and moisture for showers and storms to
remain across the area with most of the activity across the western
CWA.  Temperatures on Thursday are expected to warm up to near
normal values with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.  The upper pattern
does not change much on Friday with southwest winds aloft.
Precipitation will mostly remain confined to the higher terrain and
surrounding plains with highs perhaps a couple of degrees cooler
than the previous day.  The upper trough will become centered over
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday but otherwise not much
change expected from Friday.  The upper ridge begins to spread over
the rest of the southern conus heading into next week but remains
somewhat flattened as upper troughs continue to move over the
northern half of the country.  Southeast surface winds will allow
for low level moisture to remain across the area and for rain and
storm chances to remain through the extended forecast.  Temperatures
in the extended are expected to be below normal with highs mostly in
the 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  68  90 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  89  66  89 /  20  50  50  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  92 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  91  67  89 /  40  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  85  62  82 /  20  50  40  50
Hobbs                          65  86  64  86 /  40  50  40  30
Marfa                          60  81  60  82 /  40  60  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           70  92  68  90 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         69  91  69  89 /  50  30  20  30
Wink                           69  92  69  90 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/80
505
FXUS64 KMAF 241734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Through this afternoon, an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms
extending from southeast New Mexico to south of Alpine, Texas will
progress slowly eastward affecting FST, PEQ and INK during the
afternoon and MAF late afternoon into early evening. Though
conditions will generally be VFR through this evening, temporary
MVFR conditions are possible due to reduced visibility in
thunderstorms. Winds will generally be light southerly, though
variable and gusty in thunderstorms. For the remainder of the
night and Thursday morning, IFR conditions will prevail, though
conditions are expected to be IFR at times at MAF between 11Z and
14Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible mainly at MAF, INK and FST, though probabilities are not
high enough to include in terminal forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue for at least the next several hours.  Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop briefly invof KMAF this morning
before scattering out.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Convective temps should be achieved before noon, spawning a
widespread cu field w/bases 2.1-3 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  68  89 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  86  65  85 /  20  50  50  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  90 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  68  88 /  40  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  78  61  78 /  20  50  40  40
Hobbs                          64  84  64  84 /  40  40  40  30
Marfa                          60  80  61  79 /  40  50  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  91  68  89 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         69  89  69  89 /  50  20  20  30
Wink                           69  91  69  89 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
087
FXUS64 KMAF 241734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Through this afternoon, an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms
extending from southeast New Mexico to south of Alpine, Texas will
progress slowly eastward affecting FST, PEQ and INK during the
afternoon and MAF late afternoon into early evening. Though
conditions will generally be VFR through this evening, temporary
MVFR conditions are possible due to reduced visibility in
thunderstorms. Winds will generally be light southerly, though
variable and gusty in thunderstorms. For the remainder of the
night and Thursday morning, IFR conditions will prevail, though
conditions are expected to be IFR at times at MAF between 11Z and
14Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible mainly at MAF, INK and FST, though probabilities are not
high enough to include in terminal forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue for at least the next several hours.  Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop briefly invof KMAF this morning
before scattering out.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Convective temps should be achieved before noon, spawning a
widespread cu field w/bases 2.1-3 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  92  68  89 /  30  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       66  86  65  85 /  20  50  50  40
Dryden                         72  93  72  90 /  30  20  20  30
Fort Stockton                  68  90  68  88 /  40  30  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 63  78  61  78 /  20  50  40  40
Hobbs                          64  84  64  84 /  40  40  40  30
Marfa                          60  80  61  79 /  40  50  40  40
Midland Intl Airport           70  91  68  89 /  40  20  20  30
Odessa                         69  89  69  89 /  50  20  20  30
Wink                           69  91  69  89 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/05
203
FXUS64 KMAF 240930
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue for at least the next several hours.  Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop briefly invof KMAF this morning
before scattering out.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
Convective temps should be achieved before noon, spawning a
widespread cu field w/bases 2.1-3 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  92  68 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       88  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         92  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  68  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  63  78  61 /  40  20  50  40
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  50  40  40  40
Marfa                          81  60  80  61 /  50  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  70  91  68 /  40  40  20  20
Odessa                         88  69  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
Wink                           89  69  91  69 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
766
FXUS64 KMAF 240823
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
323 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain has continued this morning as a line of storms
progresses east across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Several inches
of rain has fallen across these areas since Tuesday evening. Flash
flooding will continue to be the main concern this morning as this
rain falls over already saturated ground. Models indicate this
area of storms will diminish over the next few hours as they
approach the Permian Basin, but we shall see.

Little pattern change today as an upper trough over the Rockies
continues to pull moisture across the area. Heavy rain appears
almost a certainty this afternoon as PWATs remain 1 to 2 standard
deviations above normal. Location of the heaviest rain is a little
more uncertain with no discernible surface boundary. As clouds
clear and surface heating occurs during the day, visible satellite
may reveal any leftover outflow boundaries. Will orient highest
PoPs out west where the surface trough is located and model QPF is
greatest. Training cells are possible once again and may lead to
more flash flooding. Precip will have trouble moving east due to
dry air aloft and subsidence from the mid level ridge so well
trend PoPs down sharply from west to east.

The large subtropical ridge over the SE U.S. will keep the trough
from moving east quickly so storm chances will linger through the
week, especially across the western half of the area. The heavy rain
potential will need to be monitored as a moist atmosphere remains
in place into the weekend. Models don`t show much of a pattern
change through next week so PoPs look to stay fairly high with
temperatures below normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  92  68 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       88  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         92  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  20
Fort Stockton                  89  68  90  68 /  40  40  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 81  63  78  61 /  40  20  50  40
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  50  40  40  40
Marfa                          81  60  80  61 /  50  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           89  70  91  68 /  40  40  20  20
Odessa                         88  69  89  69 /  50  50  20  20
Wink                           89  69  91  69 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29
082
FXUS64 KMAF 240536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing convection along a low-lvl theta-e ridge axis will
continue off and on throughout the night. Forecast soundings
suggest MVFR stratus will develop invof KMAF around sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Convective temps should be
achieved around noon, spawning a widespread cu field w/bases 2.8-7
kft agl.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     91  70  93  68 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       90  66  86  65 /  30  20  50  50
Dryden                         93  71  94  72 /  20  30  20  10
Fort Stockton                  90  67  91  68 /  50  40  30  20
Guadalupe Pass                 83  62  78  61 /  30  10  50  50
Hobbs                          84  64  84  64 /  30  40  40  40
Marfa                          83  59  81  61 /  50  40  50  50
Midland Intl Airport           89  69  91  68 /  30  40  20  10
Odessa                         88  68  90  68 /  40  40  20  20
Wink                           90  69  92  69 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/29/44
516
FXUS64 KMAF 232327
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance.

The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is the threat for TS
activity to continue the next 6 hours. Currently have thunderstorms
training over CNM and just north of HOB terminals. This activity
looks to continue and potentially shift to the south/southeast
slightly over the next several hours, resulting in periods of low
vis due to heavy rainfall as well as gusty/erratic winds. Storms
could continue beyond midnight but confidence is too low attm to
include mention of TS beyond 04Z for now. Will continue to monitor
radar trends and amend if needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail with thunderstorm chances possibly returning Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  91  70  93 /  30  20  40  10
Carlsbad                       66  90  66  86 /  30  30  20  50
Dryden                         71  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  90  67  91 /  30  50  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  83  62  78 /  40  30  10  50
Hobbs                          67  84  64  84 /  40  30  40  40
Marfa                          60  83  59  81 /  40  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  89  69  91 /  40  30  40  20
Odessa                         71  88  68  90 /  40  40  40  20
Wink                           70  90  69  92 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/70
089
FXUS64 KMAF 231849
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
149 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A rich plume of mid/upper level moisture continues to stream
across the area and early this morning was collocated with
showers in the e and s. Looks like the atmosphere is attempting
to make another run at redeveloping precip within said moisture
axis, as light showers are farther w and convection is developing
w of Valentine. We have been trying to discern shrtwv energy
embedded within the moist flow aloft and have seen hints of shrtwv
energy in satellite data. By 00Z/Wed GFS/NAM12 do indicate more
definitive shrtwv energy in the heights and vorticity fields.
Moisture anomalies of +1 to 2 standard deviations are indicative
of heavy rain potential. However we are lacking a surface boundary
and strong surface insolation. Seems appropriate to acknowledge
the heavy rain potential and we will opt to mention local heavy
rain. To get more widespread heavy rain concerns training cells
would be needed and this is possible. GFS/ECMWF hint at this with
precip overnight from NW PB-far se parts of SE NM-Upper Trans
Pecos. As such we have edged PoPs up slightly, still mostly in
the high end chance category. A slightly better chance for rain
Wed as a mid level trough will be closer. Depending on what
happens today/tonight a heightened potential for flood/flash flood
may exist Wed? Thur the mid level ridging will build w some and a
pocket of drier low level appears across parts of the PB. This
will mostly confine precip chances to the wrn areas. Thereafter
PoPs will slowly decrease and temperatures will increase, probably
to back above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  91  70  93 /  30  20  40  10
Carlsbad                       66  90  66  86 /  30  30  20  50
Dryden                         71  93  71  94 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  90  67  91 /  30  50  40  30
Guadalupe Pass                 62  83  62  78 /  40  30  10  50
Hobbs                          67  84  64  84 /  40  30  40  40
Marfa                          60  83  59  81 /  40  50  40  50
Midland Intl Airport           72  89  69  91 /  40  30  40  20
Odessa                         71  88  68  90 /  40  40  40  20
Wink                           70  90  69  92 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
432
FXUS64 KMAF 231631
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals this afternoon and
tonight.  Showers are expected to develop and affect most sites this
afternoon/evening.  There could be some reduction in visibility, but
will hold off addressing this until it becomes more clear where the
heavier showers will occur.  Also, TSRA could affect KCNM this
afternoon, but will likely add TSRA after storms develop over the
higher terrain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016/

WV imagery shows the upper ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast
states, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under SW flow
aloft.  This pattern will more or less remain into the extended. To
the north, an upper low is ejecting thru Saskatchewan, and digging a
trough thru the SW CONUS.  This will gin up leeside troughing on the
Front Range, w/the sfc trough forecast to drift south into TX/OK
over the next couple of days.  The low-lvl theta-e ridge moved north
into the FA yesterday, and is forecast to orient SW-NE and
strengthen over the next few days roughly in line w/the
aforementioned sfc trough.  Thus, a good chance of convection will
remain, especially in the short term.  Forecast soundings continue
to hint at mainly a heavy rain threat, w/ensembles indicating PWATs
over 1.5 std devs abv normal, and forecast to remain 1" or more for
the next few days.  Mid-lvl LRs and bulk shear look too weak to
mention any svr activity attm, but we`ll mention that a few
cells could become strong in the HWO.

For temps, w/the ridge off to the east, and increased moisture, H85
temps don`t move much over the next week, keeping things right
around normal as far as highs go, and abv-normal lows due to higher
dewpoints.  This is in pretty good agreement w/MOS, and we see
no reason to deviate too much from it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  72  91  71 /  30  40  30  40
Carlsbad                       90  69  86  67 /  40  40  30  20
Dryden                         91  72  92  72 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Stockton                  90  70  89  68 /  40  30  40  40
Guadalupe Pass                 80  64  79  63 /  50  50  40  20
Hobbs                          88  67  84  65 /  40  40  40  40
Marfa                          82  64  80  62 /  50  40  60  50
Midland Intl Airport           90  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Odessa                         89  72  89  70 /  40  40  30  50
Wink                           91  71  88  69 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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