Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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814
FXUS64 KMAF 170458
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and no significant weather are expected at
southeast New Mexico and southwest terminals through Thursday
evening.

Shortly before 05Z, a cold front was pushing through eastern New
Mexico, located just north of a line from Artesia to Crossroads.
This front will push through CNM, HOB, INK, MAF, and PEQ by 12Z
and FST by 18Z shifting winds to north and northeast. Winds are
expected to remain elevated and gusty at times across the Permian
Basin until the front approaches around 12Z. A strong low level
jet will bring low level wind shear to MAF, HOB and INK terminals
overnight. Though some low cloudiness is expected behind the
front, low ceilings are presently expected to remain east of MAF.
Winds will veer to east and northeast across the region Thursday
afternoon and evening. By 06Z, low clouds may push into the
region from the east, affecting MAF and FST by 06Z. For this
TAF issuance, will keep low clouds scattered though ceilings are
expected after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR with a few high clouds.  A gusty south
wind will continue through the evening as a surface low remains
over eastern NM.  A cold front will blow into the area late
tonight/early Thursday with a gusty north wind.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A lee surface trough is intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough late this afternoon. The upper level trough
will track across the plains tonight and Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool a few degrees behind this front Thursday
to slightly below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. This trough and associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday night for mention of a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast New
Mexico and extreme west Texas west of the Pecos River.

By Saturday the upper level trough/low is expected to be across
Arizona and New Mexico. Large scale lift will increase significantly
by early in the day as heights fall in conjunction with an approaching
upper level speed max. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western sections Saturday morning and
slowly advance eastward Saturday afternoon and evening toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region as the upper system
approaches. Continued the mention of a chance of showers and
thunderstorms most areas Saturday and Saturday evening. At this
time do not think there will be significant severe weather
outbreak due to less than impressive instability with a retreating
surface high still in the picture with a broad upper trough. (no
well defined dryline). Moist southeasterly low level flow will
keep temperatures a little below normal as well.

The upper level system will weaken and pass by to the north
Sunday and allow a surface trough to move east toward the eastern
Permian Basin Sunday afternoon and evening. Kept the slight
chance of thunderstorm going across the extreme eastern Basin
along and east of the surface trough with temperatures warming to
above normal values.

Next Monday and Tuesday look dry and warm behind this system
with an upper level ridge over the forecast area. This ridge
is forecast to move east later Tuesday and could set up
the Permian Basin for the possibility of dryline thunderstorms
next Wednesday with southwesterly flow aloft in place.

FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest 20 foot winds of 20 to 30 mph sustained will prevail in
the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and evening.  Since RHs
around 5 percent will persist there, the Red Flag Warning will
remain in effect.  Indications are 20 foot winds will continue well
into the night over the Guadalupe Mountains, so will extend the RFW
until 17/09Z.

Warmer temperatures are prevailing along and west of the Pecos River
this afternoon, with temps a few degrees cooler over the Permian
Basin.  A tight surface pressure gradient is encompassing the
Permian Basin, hence 20 foot wind speeds are 15 to 20 mph sustained
in many locations there, but only 10 to 15 mph over the Upper Trans
Pecos and locations further west and southwest.  The gusty southerly
winds over the Permian Basin are beginning to bring in a little low
level moisture, which is keeping RH/s near 15 percent or higher,
with RHs of 5 to 10 percent further west.  A few locations in the
central and northern Permian Basin could reach critical levels, but
the duration is not expected to be long enough for a Red Flag
Warning.  20 foot winds will stay gusty through the evening over the
Permian Basin, but cooling temperatures and increasing moisture will
allow RHs to rise through the evening and night.  Recovery will be
poor along and west of a Maljamar to Big Bend line, with good or
better further east.

A cold front will move south into the area Thursday.  Minimum
afternoon RHs will generally stay above 15 percent over all but
Brewster and Presidio counties.  Although 20 foot wind speeds may
rise to around 20 mph sustained late Thursday afternoon and early
evening in these areas, the duration does not appear to be long
enough for critical fire weather conditions.  Fire weather concerns
will not be as great Friday and through the weekend as low level
moisture will spread over the region, and there will be a chance of
a wetting rain, especially Friday night through Saturday night.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING until 3 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05

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