Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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955
FXUS64 KMAF 311646
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies are expected at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. West winds
of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts are expected this afternoon
through sunset. Winds will decrease significantly by early this
evening with south to southwest winds expected at generally 10
mph or less overnight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 516 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and tonight.
Surface westerly winds will become gusty by this afternoon though,
and will not diminish until this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016/

Quite an impressive day Saturday across the area with widespread
red flag conditions, record highs, and strong winds. Well...get
ready for a repeat today as the overall pattern changes very
little. A strong height gradient will develop over the region
later today with increasing mid level winds during the afternoon.
Models continue to under-do the winds each afternoon, likely due
to the time of year. Given the strong warming and tight height
gradient aloft later today will increase winds over the highest
guidance. Guadalupe Pass has been consistently gusting to near 80
mph all night and expect that to continue. High Wind Warnings look
good and will again issue wind advisories for the adjacent plains
and Davis Mountains. High temperatures across most of the region
will again threaten records this afternoon. Part of the area will
get a break from the winds and hot temps today as a front
backdoors into the northeast CWA. Locations from Snyder to Big
Spring will see much lighter winds and temperatures a few degrees
cooler.

If this weekend wasn`t windy enough, Monday still looks to take the
cake. An upper trough will eject from NM onto the Plains with the
base of the trough skirting our northwest zones. A very tight
height gradient along with very strong mid level winds (60 to 70
mph at 700 mb) will lead to strong and potentially damaging
surface winds in the higher terrain and adjacent plains. Advisory
level winds are expected to spread into much of the rest of the
region as well. Models have slowed the progress of a Pacific
front Monday so expect high temperatures to be quite warm again.
Southwesterly winds will become westerly behind the front with
temperatures cooling late Monday afternoon. Winds will be slow to
let up Monday night as a tight sfc pressure gradient continues
across the area.

A stronger cold front arrives Tuesday with much colder temperatures
filling in behind it. This airmass will stick around through the end
of the week as the large upper trough slowly moves east.
Temperatures moderate next weekend with conditions remaining dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Mid level winds will be fairly strong over the region again today
ahead of a potent upper level storm system moving over the West
Coast.  Westerly downslope winds will aid temperatures rising well
above normal again, so RH/s will likely bottom out in the 10 to 15
percent range, although the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains, and the northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains will struggle to drop that low.  Still think westerly
surface winds and RH/s will be low enough along and south of a
Carlsbad to Andrews to Midland and St. Lawrence line for several
hours.  Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire Weather Watch in these
areas to a Red Flag Warning from 31/15Z to 01/00Z.  Even though
winds will subside after 01/00Z and alleviate critical fire weather
conditions, recovery will be poor over all but the Western Low
Rolling Plains.

Monday appears to be the windiest day of the last few, but cooler
temperatures will likely keep RH/s too low over the northwest
quarter or so of the forecast area.  Still think there will be
several hours of RH/s of 15 percent or less along and south of a
Lamesa to Kermit to Candelaria line so will issue a Fire Weather
Watch from 01/15Z until 02/00Z for these areas.  Later shifts will
have to monitor for adjustments, especially if temperatures turn out
cooler than currently expected.  Recovery Monday night will be poor
to fair followed by more windy conditions Tuesday.  At this time, it
appears only portions of the Lower Trans Pecos will see RH/s low
enough for critical conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  38  73  33 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       77  42  60  35 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                         84  48  80  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  77  48  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 66  43  51  29 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          74  39  59  29 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          69  31  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  41  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         78  43  69  36 /   0   0  10   0
Wink                           79  40  68  37 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ-Southeast Plains/BLM
     Roswell/LNZ.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Big Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Ector-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Andrews-Big Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Marfa Plateau-
     Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     Andrews-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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