Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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634
FXUS64 KMAF 281131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE CWFA. THE RESULT
WILL BE A MOSTLY DOWN DAY CONVECTIVELY SPEAKING, ISOLD POPS
WARRANTED MAINLY IN/NEAR ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS MTNS S AND
WITHIN MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL TREND UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY WITH
DRIER AIR AND 25C 85H TEMPS. MONDAY`S WX DOES LOOK MORE
INTERESTING AS A 3H 65KT JET WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WITH MUCH OF W TX WITHIN THE LFQ OF SAID JET. THERE`S GOOD MODEL
CONTINUITY AS SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS (GFS/NAM12). AS SUCH THERE WILL
BE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO MOVE INTO SE NM/PB BY
MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT FCST HAS INDICATIONS OF HIER POPS (CHANCE)
MONDAY EVENING AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR NOW. 85H TEMPS
WILL INCREASE ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO MONDAY PM AND HIGH TEMPS WILL
EDGE UP A DEGREE OR 2 AHEAD OF TSTMS. DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP DOES MATERIALIZE. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL TURN HOTTER, ESPECIALLY WRN PB/SE NM/UPPER TRANS PECOS WHERE
85H TEMPS OF 28C- 31C ARE FCST. FARTHER E A STRONGER SE SURFACE
WIND WILL HELP, BUT M90S SEEM ATTAINABLE. UNFAVORABLE NE MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL MOSTLY PRECLUDE POPS. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A POSSIBLE
PATTERN CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT AS USUAL MODEL ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER, ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER/COOLER THAN
GFS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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