Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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114
FXUS64 KMAF 021022
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
422 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A big change is on the way for the region beginning today. A
potent positively-tilted upper trough currently extending from the
Northern Plains southwestward to the Gulf of California will
develop into a cutoff low over the Arizona/Mexico border this
evening, with the low dropping south through Sonora on Saturday.
Ahead of this feature, low and mid-level moisture will increase
substantially over the region, resulting in increasing cloud cover
today. Additionally, a cold front will backdoor into the area
today, becoming quasi-stationary before pushing further south
overnight. The net effect will be cooler temperatures today than
yesterday, particularly across northern zones where highs will be
in the upper 40s and lower 50s, with middle 60s to lower 70s
south. The combination of increased moisture and ascent ahead of
the aforementioned trough will interact with the frontal boundary,
resulting in increasing rain chances across the area today. With
the southward push of the front overnight, as well as the
development of a 300mb jet max rounding the base of the low,
isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Cold air advection will
also begin in earnest tonight, though expected rain and cloud
cover will keep temperatures from falling too much, with lows
expected to be in the 30s and 40s for most of the area. In the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains, rain could mix with
or even briefly change over to snow late tonight and early
Saturday morning, though accumulations will be light and below
Advisory criteria. The aforementioned front is also expected to
result in strong northeasterly gap winds through Guadalupe Pass,
where a High Wind Watch remains in effect from late this evening
through Saturday night.

Saturday and Sunday will both be significantly cooler, with highs
generally in the 40s and 50s both days. Rainfall will remain
likely through the weekend as the aforementioned closed low over
Sonora makes its way slowly eastward across Northern Mexico, and
maintains lift and continued moisture transport over the region.
The passage of the low just to the south of the Big Bend Area
will result in much of the region being under the deformation
zone, and given continued upper support from a strong upper jet,
conditions will be favorable for a few tenths of an inch of rain
for many locations through the weekend. Overnight Saturday
night/early Sunday morning as well as Sunday night into early
Monday, the higher elevations of the Guadalupe, Davis, and Chisos
Mountains could see a wintry mix of rain and snow, though only
light accumulations are expected, and mainly in the Guadalupe
Mountains above 7500 feet. Given continued cold advection and lows
dropping to the upper 20s to around 30 degrees in northern Lea
county, rain may mix with or briefly change to snow during the
early morning hours Sunday and Monday, though no accumulation is
expected in that area.

On Monday, the low will open up as it begins to lift toward the
northeast, with rain chances decreasing and shifting eastward
through Monday afternoon. Dry conditions are expected thereafter,
with temperatures rebounding into the 50s and 60s by Tuesday
afternoon under quasi-zonal flow aloft. The warm-up will be short-
lived however, as another strong cold front moves through the
region on Wednesday, resulting in well below normal temperatures
and the potential for a widespread hard freeze Thursday morning.
Stay tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  43  46  40 /  50  70  80  60
Carlsbad                       55  38  45  36 /  10  70  80  60
Dryden                         65  54  57  46 /  10  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  66  45  48  38 /  10  70  80  70
Guadalupe Pass                 53  34  41  32 /   0  60  80  60
Hobbs                          48  37  41  34 /  30  70  80  60
Marfa                          65  40  50  34 /  10  50  80  70
Midland Intl Airport           56  42  46  39 /  40  70  80  60
Odessa                         56  42  45  38 /  40  70  80  60
Wink                           60  44  47  39 /  20  70  80  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

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