Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 291116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

See 12Z aviation discussion below.


TS have dissipated this morning and while more will develop this
afternoon, they should be west of the TAF sites and will not be
included with this issuance. VFR conditions and light southeast or
occasionally variable winds are expected the next 24 hours.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.





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