Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 031709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Another upper
level disturbance will bring another round of thunderstorms to
west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and tonight.
Confidence was high enough to include mention of TEMPO VFR
conditions in thunderstorms at the majority of the terminals this
afternoon and this evening. More thunderstorms are possible after
midnight tonight through 12z Tuesday so inserted PROB30 groups at
a majority of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today, although mid level
clouds around 8-10kft to 15kft AGL will be fairly common. Have
included TSRA at KCNM and KHOB, but TSRA may need to be added to
the other area terminals for late this afternoon/evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RICH MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS MOVING E TODAY AND BY 00Z/TUE WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO THE GDP MTNS. THE COMBINATION OF NW
FLOW ALOFT (ALBEIT WEAK) AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH (SEEN IN 5H
HEIGHT/VORTICITY) CO-LOCATED WITH SAID MOIST AXIS FAVORS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITHIN AND INVOF OF SAID FEATURES, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
18Z. MOS GUIDANCE (MORESO MET) IS SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE TYPE POPS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT/TUE MORNING FROM DAVIS/GDP MTNS-SE NM-PB. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS, INCLUDING MENTION OF LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN (PER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW) AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WHICH WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS FROM GDP MTNS-SE
NM. SAID MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL SAG SOUTH INTO TUE AND CHANCE POPS
WILL ALSO FOCUS FARTHER S, GENERALLY DAVIS MTNS-LOWER TRANS PECOS-
SRN PB. CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL MAKE TEMP FORECAST DIFFICULT, BUT
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED. IF NOTHING ELSE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS/PRECIP COOLED AIR/OUTFLOW HELP TO TAKE
EDGE OF ON UNSEASONABLY HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPS. BY WED HIGH TEMPS
RAPIDLY RETURN TO UNCOMFORTABLY HOT CATEGORY AND WILL EASILY PERSIST
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH 7H TEMPS OF 15-17C (+1 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS) UNDERNEATH SUPPRESSING PRESENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM WED THRU WEEKEND WILL BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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