Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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270
FXUS64 KMAF 211136
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted through the night
across western portions of the area, and additional development
over the past hour or so has been observed from KFST northwestward
to just east of KPEQ. The overall trend is expected to be that of
increasing shower/thunderstorm coverage today, thus have
maintained -SHRA mention at area terminals for the duration, with
the exception of KMAF, where generally dry conditions are expected
through early evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings/visibilities are
expected by this afternoon, with transient IFR conditions possible
with passing storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows a negatively-tilted upper trough centered over far
West Texas that has been shearing out over the past 24 hours,
resulting in convection along and west of the Pecos.  This activity
is forecast to continue today and tonight, w/the focus shifting east
as the trough lifts NE.  Over the PacNW, a trough moving onshore is
forecast to quickly move inland today, and phase w/the trough
overhead overnight tonight, and shift the better rain chances east
of the Pecos Wednesday as large-scale ascent commences.  00Z KMAF
RAOB came in w/a PWAT just under an inch, w/models saturating the
column upwards to H5 by 12Z Wednesday, increasing PWATs to 1.25" or
more over most of the FA.  This is right at 2 STD DEVs above normal,
so heavy rainfall will be possible.  W/storm motions of around 10
kts, we`ll keep mention of this to the HWO.  Precip chances should
drop off Wed night W-E as the trough exits the area.  An upper ridge
then begins building in from the west, and will move east of the
region over the weekend, keeping the extended dry/

W/abundant cloud cover, columns moistening up, and sfc dewpoints
anchored in place, diurnal spreads on temps will be small, at least
in the short-term.  Therefore, we`ve generally stuck to the cooler
end of the highs, and warmer end of the lows.  For the extended,
upper ridging, buffer soundings, and H85 temp fields suggest leaning
toward the warmer GFS numbers over the ECMWF.

Beyond this forecast, the ECMWF brings an upper trough out of the
PacNW, separating it from the flow, closing it off, and digging it
to SE NM by 00Z Wednesday, whereas the GFS and DGEX favor zonal flow
aloft during this time.  Should the ECMWF pan out, this will be our
next shot at precip, and much cooler temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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