Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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978
FXUS64 KMAF 141707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are slow to dissipate at MAF/FST/INK/PEQ, but CIGS will
gradually lift to at least 040 by 21Z. VFR expected thru the night
with winds less than 10kts. Winds will increase approx 15Z Wed
with another chance for SHRA/TSRA Wed PM, but too low of a probability
to included in TAFS for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Light precipitation across the area has come to an end, leaving a
wide swath of MVFR ceilings in place affecting west Texas TAF
sites. Expect a gradual improvement to VFR conditions for KINK,
KMAF, and KPEQ by mid-morning, with KFST likely remaining MVFR
until early afternoon before improving. This afternoon onward, VFR
conditions will prevail across all TAF sites, with winds becoming
light and variable to light southeasterly through the end of the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought rain to the area has moved off to the
northeast this morning.  The next upper trough will move ashore the
NW coast today quickly moving east before developing into a closed
low over WY early Wednesday.  This low cuts off and drops southward
late Wednesday and Thursday moving over the region Friday.  This low
slowly wobbles east on Saturday with high pressure aloft building in
behind it.

The upper low produced heavy rain yesterday across portions of the
Northern Permian Basin that resulted in flash flooding.  Radar indicates
a number of locations across Gaines... Dawson... Borden and Mitchell
received 5 to 6 inches of rain with the heaviest of up to 9 inches
that fell in Dawson County south of Lamesa.  Will see how this
compares to measured amounts as reports drift in this morning.

Will have post frontal conditions today with cool morning temps and
a chilly north wind.  Later today the wind should come back around
to the south as a new leeside trough develops.  This will also aid
the warmup.  Highs generally in the 60s today with 70s/80s on
Wednesday and Thursday.  Models bring another front into the area
Thursday but want to hang it up over the CWA and not push it
through the region till Friday.

Will have more chances of rain this week as the wet pattern of
numerous lows/troughs continues.  Midland International Airport
only reported .03 inch of rain yesterday but is over 3 inches above
normal in precipitation for the year.  Today should be mainly dry
but models do develop some light precip over the Davis Mtns in the
afternoon... will keep mention of isolated storms there.  Model qpf
starts developing more significant precip on Wednesday expanding
through the night.  Some disagreement as to precip chances on
Thursday as some models going mainly dry while others develop lots
of precip over the east.  Will also have the frontal boundary in the
area that could be a focus for convection Thursday/Friday.  With the
upper low wandering around the area there will be a decent chance of
storms Wednesday through Friday with pops decreasing on Saturday as
it moves east.  May see some strong to severe storms late Wednesday
through Friday and will mention in HWO.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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