Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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637
FXUS64 KMAF 112314
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Stubborn low cigs have hung on across the Permian Basin this
afternoon, but have cleared across the rest of the region. The
clearing line is currently stretched across southern Ector and
Midland counties. The RUC seems to be handling these clouds the
best with low cigs at KMAF breaking around 12/02Z. With clearing
skies overnight, the area is once again primed for strong
radiational cooling and dense fog. Visibilities should begin to
fall later this evening before bottoming out below 1SM after
midnight. VFR conditions will return around Noon Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge will build over the forecast area tonight
through Friday night and should result in generally fair weather.
The one caveat these periods is that decent low level moisture
will remain over the area and will result in extensive low clouds.
In addition light winds will combine with the moisture and
encourage areas of fog to develop tonight and Friday night. The
fog could be dense tonight in the Guadalupe mountains and the
southeast New Mexico Plains where skies will clear this evening.
Later shifts will need to monitor for a possible advisory. Due
to the low clouds and fog expected, generally went above guidance
on low temperatures through Saturday morning and toward the lower
guidance on high temperatures Friday.

The aforementioned upper ridge will move east Friday night and be
replaced by a southern stream system moving inland from the west
coast to the four corners region by Saturday evening. This upper
system is forecast to intensify as it closes off as it moves east
across the southern Rockies Sunday and translates to the southern
plains by Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday near the cold pool aloft across
northern sections of the Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
closer to the upper low and along the surface cold front across
the Permian Basin late Saturday night and Sunday. Much above
normal temperatures are expected Saturday with surface troughing
intensifying ahead of the upper system. The associated Pacific
front is expected to pass through the day Sunday, knocking
temperatures back to more normal values. In addition breezy to
windy conditions will likely develop Sunday as the surface
pressure gradient increases behind the surface low.

Dry with below normal temperatures are expected next Monday
through Wednesday behind a northern stream cold front and
building surface high pressure. Another southern stream system
is forecast to approach the area from the southwest later
Wednesday and next Thursday with showers possible Thursday with
near or slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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