Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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956
FXUS64 KMAF 170902
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
402 AM CDT Sun May 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper air pattern this year certainly has a different look to
it than that seen in recent years. Previous years have had an
upper ridge over the western U.S. bringing hot temperatures and
dry air to west Texas and eastern New Mexico but so far this year
we have had a persistent trough, keeping upper level flow
southwesterly and providing a continued chance for rain and
near normal temperatures.

This scenario will play out the next seven days as one upper low
after another moves into the Great Basin providing rain chances
all week. Today will be the lone exception as a departing upper
low pushes convection east of the CWA, however another low
develops to our west pulling moisture back against the mountains
giving us a chance for rain the remainder of the week. It will be
difficult providing too much detail on where and when rain will
fall since it will depend on the location and timing of the
surface dryline and passing upper level troughs...features models
are notoriously poor at handling very far in advance. Therefore
the forecast is somewhat generic with PoPs generally lower out
west and higher in the east where moisture is more likely to be
found. Instability and shear will be enough that any storms that
form could become severe as noted in the Day2 and Day3 outlooks
from SPC which show most of the area in a marginal or slight risk.
Flash flooding will also be possible with precipitable water
values at least one standard deviation above normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  60  87  64  /   0  10  20  60
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  86  66  /   0  10  20  60
CARLSBAD NM                83  54  88  62  /   0  10  20  50
DRYDEN TX                  88  69  87  69  /  10  20  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  63  89  67  /   0  10  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  57  79  59  /   0   0  20  40
HOBBS NM                   80  55  87  62  /   0  10  20  60
MARFA TX                   79  48  83  54  /   0  10  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  62  88  66  /   0  10  20  50
ODESSA TX                  84  63  88  66  /   0  10  20  50
WINK TX                    85  60  89  68  /   0  10  20  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/10

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