Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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790
FXUS64 KMAF 231951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
251 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A tropical-like disturbance aloft will continue to enhance the
potential for showers and thunderstorms, during the next 24 hours.
The latest water vapor imagery loop indicates this upper-level
disturbance, or so called inverted trough, is currently centered
just south of the Big Bend in northern Mexico. The NAM moves this
trough slowly toward the west, during the next 24 hours, and
brings its center over the El Paso area by tomorrow afternoon.
Based on this projected movement, continuing the best rain chances
over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend areas look reasonable for
tonight and tomorrow.

For the remainder of the 7 day forecast, the forecast remains
unchanged. For Thursday and Friday, a thermal ridge to the west,
at 850mb, will expand east into West Texas and Southeastern New
Mexico. This increase in 850mb temperatures will help push
afternoon highs back into the mid to upper 90s, especially across
the Permina Basin, Trans Pecos region, and the Presidio Valley.
Then, models bring a weak cold front south across the Permian
Basin and into the Trans Pecos region on Saturday. The GFS and
ECMWF are in fairly good agreement on the timing of this front.
Based on this model agreement, continuing mainly chance PoPs for
much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, for Friday night and
Saturday, looks good. Otherwise, drier conditions and cooler
afternoon highs look likely through next Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  89  69  91  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              71  92  72  92  /   0   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  90  68  93  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  73  90  72  94  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  89  69  93  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  80  64  85  /  10  30  30  20
HOBBS NM                   66  89  66  91  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   61  82  60  85  /  20  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  90  70  92  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  70  89  71  91  /  10   0  10  10
WINK TX                    71  93  71  94  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Huber

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