Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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584
FXUS64 KMAF 141143
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
543 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12z aviation forecast below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Surface winds will shift to the west and become gusty at TAF
locations as a Pacific front moves across the area. Clearing skies
are expected across the area with VFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough will sweep across the area today.  Will get
very little rainfall with this system and mainly wind.  After this
trough passes east will have brief ridging aloft before another
strong trough swings across the western states on Tuesday.  As this
trough approaches rain chances will increase across the area
beginning mid week.

Have a screaming LLJ out of the south this morning with 50kt winds
1000ft off the deck with gusts close to 30kts at the surface.
Currently some meager showers over the northern Permian Basin and
Lea Co.  After sunrise any developing showers/storms should be
limited to the NE Permian Basin and quickly leave the area.  Low
clouds remain over the east with high dewpts but not much fog.

A Pacific front will move through this morning with a brisk west wind
behind it scouring out the low level moisture.  As of 09z can see a
boundary in Ector Co. rapidly moving east but this may not be the
front as Wink behind it still has a south wind.  Wind shift looks to
be farther back to the west with very gusty west winds across SE NM.
Will continue the high wind warning for the Guadalupe Mountains today
and the wind advisory for Culberson Co.  Will also add Eddy Co. and
northern and central Lea Co. to the advisory.  Could see some
blowing dust during the afternoon mainly for SE NM and NW Permian
Basin or anywhere there is plowed fields.

High temperatures will be cooler in the 60s today behind the Pac front
but still well above normal.  Monday had been more clear cut with
the surface ridge pushing a polar front through the area but now
there is disagreement in the models showing an erratic wind field.
It appears the cooler air may be delayed to after the wind shift.
Either way it appears that by Tuesday it will now be cooler and
closer to normal with highs in the 50s.  These cooler readings look
to extend through the end of the week with highs in the 50s north
and 60s south.

Rain chances return again beginning Wednesday with the next upper
trough and continue through Friday.  Currently 2014 at MAF is 7th on
the list of all time driest years... will take a good rain to knock us
out of the top 10.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 7 PM MST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

03

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