Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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480
FXUS64 KMAF 231940
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Current observations show the cold front is right about where it
was expected to be at this time, right along the I-20 corridor to
Pecos, then extending northwest along the Pecos River valley into
southeast New Mexico. A broken line of convection is now developng
along the front from Colorado City to Odessa. The fine resolution
models are showing this convection, along with storms developing
in the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, increasing in coverage and
providing decent rainfall amounts across the area through midnight
tonight before diminishing. The more course resolution models
(40km and greater) do not show as much coverage or precipitation
amounts which provided some uncertainty in this forecast package.
Obs show a local maximum of dewpoints along the front better
depicted by the more unstable hi-res models so hopefully we will
continue to see an expansion in precip coverage. The main factor
potentially limiting convection will be the increase in cloud
cover decreasing insolation and counteracting the destabilizing
effects of the surface moisture.

Storms will diminish later tonight but more will develop tomorrow
afternoon along the remnants of the lifting front. Convection will
be much more isolated due to less wind and moisture convergence.
The remainder of the forecast appears to be a return of what we
are very familiar with, an upper level high building over New
Mexico and west Texas. Temperatures will steadily climb through
the week to well above normal levels and rain chances will greatly
diminish.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  70  91  72  96  /  30  20  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    67  91  68  93  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      74  97  73  96  /  10  20   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  94  70  94  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  67  84  /  30  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       65  87  67  92  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       62  87  61  86  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        69  92  70  95  /  30  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      69  91  71  95  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                        70  95  71  96  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/10

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