Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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842
FXUS64 KMAF 011659
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1059 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong west winds are expected at all the west Texas and southeast
New Mexico terminals by early this afternoon. Prevailing west
winds of 30 to 45 mph are anticipated with TEMPO west winds of 40
to 50 mph with gusts over 60 mph from 21z to 24z with MVFR
visibilities in blowing dust. West winds will diminish some by
early evening but remain elevated at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to
40 mph overnight. Look for prevailing MVFR visibilities in blowing
dust overnight as a dustcloud from northern Mexico and New Mexico
lingers over the region.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 514 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through this morning areawide.  However,
strong southwest to west winds will affect all area terminals by
this afternoon with blowing dust likely dropping visibility to MVFR
in blowing dust, if not IFR at KCNM, KPEQ and KHOB where the
strongest winds are expected.  Westerly winds will be slow to
decrease after 02/00Z, but conditions should be VFR again shortly
thereafter.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CST MON FEB 1 2016/

An intense upper low currently moving through Arizona will bring
strong winds and high fire danger to the region today. The low will
continue to deepen and become more negatively tilted before lifting
into the Plains late today. Thinking has not changed much with this
system and winds will beef up very quickly later this morning. A
core of >100 kt winds will be crossing the region at 500 mb during
the late morning to early afternoon. This coincides with peak
mixing and a height gradient at 700 mb of nearly 90 meters/200
miles. Using the 700 mb gradient method, sustained winds 40 to 50
mph with gust to 60 mph will definitely be possible across the
western half of the CWA. Will convert the High Wind Watch to a
Warning with a Wind Advisory east of that. The higher elevations
will see even stronger winds with the Guadalupe Mountains possibly
seeing gusts to 100 mph and 80 mph gusts in the Davis Mountains.
Models continue to underdo the winds so will go above guidance
here. The some goes for dewpoints as dry air to the west and
strong downslope flow will keep values in the teens and low 20`s.
Will continue to keep blowing dust in the forecast for this
afternoon and evening, and among everything else will add a
Blowing Dust Advisory for locations west of a Lamesa to Wink to
Pecos line. Locally, recent wind events (weaker than today) have
not brought much in the way of dust, possibly due to more
widespread vegetation from a wet 2015. Most of the dust with this
event will likely come from N. Mexico.

If we see any precip with this system today, it will remain in the
higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains. More likely we will
see virga in these areas which may only help to bring stronger
winds aloft to the surface.

A Pacific front will help to cool temps somewhat this evening, but
not before highs reach well above normal for the 5th day in a row.
Winds will decrease only slightly tonight as vertical mixing wanes,
but a strong sfc pressure gradient remains. A Canadian front is set
to arrive Tuesday evening with much colder air behind it. High
temperatures will struggle to rise through the 40`s at most
locations Wednesday with lows mostly in the teens and 20`s. Cool
temps will continue through the end of this week as a large upper
trough encompassing the central U.S. is slow to move east. Models
differ on another storm system expected to arrive this weekend.
This storm could bring a chance of rain or snow to the region.

FIRE WEATHER...

A potent upper level storm system will impinge on the area today and
impart very strong winds to the surface.  Westerly winds of 55 to 65
mph and gusts as high as 100 mph will occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains, with 40 to 50 mph and gusts to 80 mph in the Davis
Mountains.  The northwest Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos and Marfa
Plateau will also see very high winds of 30 to 50 mph and gusts as
high as 70 mph.  The strong winds, combined with very high to
extreme fire danger, will result in a higher end fire weather event
today.

Since cooler temperatures will spread over the Guadalupe Mountains,
SE NM Plains, northwest Permian Basin and Van Horn area during the
day, think RH/s may not make it down to 15 percent, and will likely
begin to increase through mid morning to early afternoon.  However,
the rest of the forecast area will see RH/s drop to the 5 to 15
percent range through the afternoon, although the Davis Mountains
and Marfa Plateau will have increasing RH/s from mid afternoon
onward as cooler temperatures arrive.  Will go ahead and upgrade the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from 9 am until 6 pm CST.

Winds will be slow to decrease after sunset in many areas, and
despite cooler temperatures, only fair recovery is expected
areawide.  It will be windy again Tuesday, but not nearly as high as
today, with portions of the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos
possibly ending up with near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  56  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       33  53  26  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  63  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  55  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 28  43  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  50  23  43 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          24  49  19  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           37  55  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         38  55  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           36  56  26  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central
     Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Howard-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio
     Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for Big Bend Area-
     Borden-Crane-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Scurry-Terrell-Upton.

     High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Dawson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for Andrews-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Gaines-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

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