Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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946
FXUS64 KMAF 290811
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. DESPITE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
85H TEMPS WILL INCREASE A DEGREE OR SO AND A POCKET OF RELATIVELY
LOWER SURFACE DWPNT AIR WILL MATERIALIZE (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY) FROM
FAR W TX INTO WRN/CNTRL PB. AS SUCH HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL
ACROSS THE PB - M90S. PRIOR TO 00Z CONVECTIVE CONCERNS WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT NON-ZERO ACROSS THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FROM DAVIS
MTNS SWD. MEANWHILE TO THE N-NW A CLUSTER OF TSTMS/LOOSELY ORGANIZED
MCS WILL BE TRACKING SWD ARRIVING IN N-NW CWFA AROUND 00Z. 3H JET
MAX IS STILL A PLAYER, BUT 00Z MODEL RUNS DEPICT IT TO BE WEAKER,
WITH ONLY A HINT OF SLY LLJ, AND SAID DRIER SURFACE AIR, THUS THE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED. TTU WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY OPTIMISTIC
WITH TSTMS AND MOVES THEM THRU BETWEEN 00Z IN THE N TO 04Z IN THE
W/S PB, THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AFTER
06Z. IN PART BASED ON DRIER AIR MENTIONED EARLIER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME OUTFLOW WINDS OF WHICH THE TTU WRF PICKED UP ON
ACROSS WRN PB - 30KTS. MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY BUT DOES LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER. INCREASED SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS THE PB, BUT NOT SO MUCH
ACROSS THE W. LOW ORDER POPS ONLY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY FOR THE W/SW
AND N WITH A WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD E-SE CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT THE AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN N WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE OF A SLIGHTLY COOLER ELY MID LEVEL
WIND VICE A NE MID LEVEL WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  71  94  72  /  10  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    96  69  95  67  /  10  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      95  73  93  71  /  10  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               94  70  93  69  /  10  20  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  66  86  65  /  10  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                       92  66  92  66  /  10  40   0   0
MARFA TX                       88  60  85  57  /  10  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        95  69  94  71  /  10  30   0   0
ODESSA TX                      95  70  93  71  /  10  30   0   0
WINK TX                        98  71  96  71  /  10  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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