Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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172
FXUS64 KMAF 162250
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Any thunderstorm activity
should remain west of the terminals, in the mountains. Winds will
generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph and gusty at times through
the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge is centered over southern New Mexico/Arizona this
afternoon but will weaken with the center migrating to the southern
U.S. Plains over the next couple of days.  The flow aloft around the
transitioning upper ridge will be northeasterly over the region
today, then east/southeasterly during the upcoming week.  Models
vary in where the upper ridge sets up shop next weekend and beyond.

Thunderstorms will be harder to come by under the easterly upper
flow regime through next week with the higher terrain of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico being the favored area any given day.
An outflow boundary moved south through the Permian Basin this
morning and is difficult to discern on radar or satellite imagery
early this afternoon.  Will continue the trend of little to no
chance of rain over the forecast area through the extended.  The
only way this will change is if the models are incorrect in the
treatment of the upper ridge, or a weak mid level feature which is
not well resolved by models aids in triggering convection.  Time
will tell.

The better news is temperatures will not be as hot as most of July
has been, but will still be a few degrees above normal most places.
Record temperatures do not appear to be attainable through the next
seven days, and we can hope it stays that way through the rest of
the month.  At this time, extended models are favoring this
scenario.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       72 101  71 101 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                         74 100  76  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  98  72  96 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 70  93  70  90 /  10  20  10  20
Hobbs                          70  97  68  95 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          63  93  61  91 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           74 100  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         74  99  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           75 101  74 100 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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